Global Fertiliser Market Commentary

ATOME PLC

31 March 2026

 

For immediate release

31 March 2026

ATOME PLC

("ATOME" or the "Company")

ATOME Comments on Global Fertiliser Market Disruption and Strategic Positioning

ATOME (AIM: ATOM), the world-leading low-carbon fertiliser developer and the UK's only dedicated international industrial scale low-carbon fertiliser company, provides the following commentary on the ongoing Middle East conflict's impact on global fertiliser markets and ATOME's strategic position at its landmark, 260,000 tonnes-per-year fertiliser plant at Villeta, Paraguay ("Villeta" or "the Project").

Fertiliser Market Disruption

The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused direct supply disruptions to global gas, ammonia, urea and sulphur markets with consequences that are structural rather than transient - meaning the effects are in ATOME's opinion likely to reshape global supply for years, not weeks. The imperative now is to understand the cascading effects on global trade flows, fertiliser affordability, and food security.

Direct Supply Consequence

Following Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan and Mesaieed complexes, Qatar Energy closed its LNG and downstream production operations, immediately curtailing Qafco's 5.6 million tonne per year urea facility. Iranian facilities producing ammonia and urea - the key ingredients in most fertiliser - are considered largely non-operational; inland facilities may be sustaining partial domestic supply, but continued air strikes to key complexes on the Persian Gulf create significant medium-term uncertainty.

The Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway through which flows 20-30% of the world's fertiliser-grade nitrogen and 45% of its sulphur - is now at risk of extended disruption, with potentially severe consequences for global food supply.

Price impacts are already measurable[1]:

·      Urea FOB Egypt last recorded USD 800/t FOB Egypt - up 65% from pre-crisis levels

·      Urea CFR Brazil last recorded at US$720/t - up 52%

·      Ammonia peaking at USD 800/t CFR Europe - up from $670/t pre-conflict levels

·      Sulphur prices up 40% from already elevated levels, with CFR China/Brazil forecast at USD 700/t - over 100% above June 2025 levels

Asia faces acute secondary pressure. India has invoked emergency gas rationing, restricting nitrogen fertiliser production to approximately 70% of capacity. Pakistan and Bangladesh have closed multiple urea plants. Asia - which currently produces enough nitrogen to broadly meet its own needs - now risks becoming heavily dependent on costly imports, with food producers and farmers bearing the cost.

Structural and Long-Term Implications

Supply shocks of this magnitude have consequences that extend well beyond spot price movements. For instance, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrated how geopolitical disruption can permanently reshape global supply chain architecture; the current crisis has the potential to accelerate that process further.

Several structural shifts are now in train:

·      Geopolitical risk premiums are rising materially for supply originating from the Middle East, Russia, and North Africa - structurally improving the relative economics of stable, locally situated production.

·      Government policy is accelerating the transition toward domestic energy and fertiliser security. India, Brazil and key Mercosur economies are under increasing pressure to prioritise local, resilient supply - regardless of short-term cost differentials.

·      Commodity nitrogen routes dependent on long-haul gas upgrading are demonstrably more vulnerable than demand-led, value-added fertiliser systems positioned close to end markets.

·      Regulatory frameworks - including Brazil's Fertiliser Plan and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - are increasingly aligned with local, low-carbon production models.

·      Leading fertiliser multinationals are actively restructuring their sourcing to reduce exposure to concentrated, politically unstable supply chains. This trend, which accelerated following 2022, is likely to intensify further.

The aggregate effect is a structural revaluation of supply chain resilience - in which proximity to end markets, renewable energy access, and political stability command a growing premium.

Strategic Significance for ATOME

The immediate and longer-term structural changes to the global energy and fertiliser markets validate ATOME's business model and the Villeta Project's strategic rationale, focused on:

·      Local resilience: Mega nitrogen complexes concentrated in the Middle East and Russia are demonstrably vulnerable. Villeta - powered by long-term, stable 100% hydropower, in the heart of the Mercosur agricultural hub - offers security that markets now urgently require.

·      Risk premium shift: Geopolitical risk premiums for competing supply from the Middle East, Russia and North Africa are rising sharply, improving the relative investment case for ATOME's stable, Paraguay-based production.

·      Regulatory tailwinds: Brazil's Fertiliser Plan, EU CBAM and equivalent Mercosur initiatives are accelerating support for local, low-carbon fertiliser production - directly aligned with ATOME's model.

·      Offtake: ATOME's long-term offtake agreement with Yara International, one of the world's largest fertiliser companies, for 100% of production, demonstrates how leading agricultural and commodity players are supporting supply chain transition away from vulnerable, politically exposed geographies.

Terje Bakken, Director of Ammonia and Fertiliser Markets at ATOME PLC, commented:

"Current events are a stark validation of what we are building at ATOME. Whilst supply effects can be short term - we believe the consequences of the crisis will be long term. There is already a "New Normal" as companies and governments create their own "war rooms" assessing the vulnerabilities and risks of old supply systems. The world cannot continue to rely on concentrated, fossil-fuel-dependent supply from geopolitically unstable regions to feed its population. Villeta, being in the centre of one of the most important agricultural regions of the world, is exactly the locally resilient, renewably powered fertiliser solution that markets, and the sector now are urgently seeking."

For further information on ATOME, please visit the Company's Curation Connect showcase at: https://app.curationconnect.com/company/Atome-71605

For more information, please visit https://www.atomeplc.com or contact:

ATOME PLC Nikita Levine, Investor Relations	[phone] [e-mail]
FTI Consulting (Communications Adviser) Ben Brewerton	[phone] [e-mail]

About ATOME

ATOME PLC is an AIM-listed company targeting green fertiliser production with 445-megawatt of projects in Paraguay and a further pipeline of potential projects in Central America. ATOME has now created its ATOME POWER division which is in the early stages of developing a significant green power generation and infrastructure business. ATOME's projects are situated at the heart of one of the world's largest food export hubs - the Mercosur region in the Southern Cone of South America with the Argentinian and Brazilian markets next door. ATOME's production will disrupt the region's heavy dependence on imported fossil fuel generated fertiliser, contributing to regional food security goals.

ATOME's first project in Villeta, Paraguay, benefits from a 145MW renewable power purchase agreement and a 30-hectare site in a tax-free zone, with an option already secured to purchase an additional 13 hectares of adjacent land. Front End Engineering Design studies have been completed and a 10-year Definitive Offtake Agreement signed with Yara International, the leading international fertiliser company, for offtake of all of Villeta's green fertiliser production. In early 2025, ATOME announced Hy24, the leading clean hydrogen asset manager, as anchor and lead equity investor in the project, and confirmed the signing of the US$465 million fixed-price EPC contract with leading ammonia and fertiliser engineering specialist Casale S.A. The Company is now negotiating the project finance, having announced the signing of the US$420M debt agreements with leading development finance institutions, with a view to commencing construction work in 2026. There is a further up to 300MW of renewable power reserved for ATOME in Paraguay.

In Costa Rica, The National Ammonia Corporation S.A. was formed in 2022 with local partner Cavendish S.A. based in Costa Rica to develop green fertiliser projects for the region. As well as straddling the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, Costa Rica is a democratic Central American country. In agriculture, Costa Rica is the second largest supplier of pineapples in the world and is in the top ten banana growers.

All power for ATOME is from 100% renewable sources and all chosen sites are located close to the power and water sources and export facilities to serve significant domestic and then international demand. Roughly a third of human-caused GHG emissions is linked to food production according to UN data, and fertiliser use and production is the source of more emissions than the shipping and aviation industries combined. ATOME's green Calcium Ammonium Nitrate product will contribute to decarbonising the food sector from the bottom up, getting to the root of the food value chain's emissions. ATOME's renewably-generated fertiliser is both clean and promotes high crop yields, unlike conventional nitrogen fertiliser which has a heavy carbon footprint.

The Company has a green-focused Board which is supported by major shareholders including Peter Levine, Schroders, a leading fund manager, and Baker Hughes, a global technology company operating in the energy and industry sectors.

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[1] Published prices; FOB = price at point of export; CFR = delivered price including freight to destination port.

 

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