Syndicate Results/Forecasts
Amlin PLC
5 March 2002
PRESS RELEASE
DATE 5 March 2002
Syndicate results in line with expectations
Continued improvement in underwriting performance forecast for Syndicate 2001
Quota share facility increases capacity by a further £50 million for 2002
Amlin Underwriting Limited, the leading managing agency owned by Amlin plc
('Amlin'), has released its managed syndicates' final results for the 1999 year
of account and updated its forecasts for the 2000 year of account.
The 1999 year of account results are in line with previous estimates, and the
forecasts for the 2000 year of account indicate a continued improvement in the
underlying underwriting performance of Syndicate 2001.
Amlin is experiencing buoyant trading conditions in the current year and has
arranged a £50 million quota share facility with XL Re which will increase
Syndicate 2001's capacity for 2002 from £800 million to £850 million, 48% more
than in 2001.
1999 account results and 2000 account forecasts
The results and forecasts set out below are expressed as a percentage of
capacity and are after standard Names' expenses, including agent's fees and
commission.
1999 year of account results
Syndicate No. Capacity £m % owned by Amlin Result Previous forecast
% to % % to %
902 37.6 45.5% (5.5) (7.0) to (2.0)
1141 76.2 52.1% (22.3) (25.0) to (20.0)
2001 453.0 35.2% (2.0) (4.5) to 0.5
Total 566.8 (5.0) (7.4) to (2.4)
Underwriting conditions in 1999 were extremely poor and there was a high
occurrence of major catastrophes. Nevertheless, in Syndicate 2001, the XL
account contributed a significant profit, which helped to offset poor results in
some other classes, particularly US casualty business. The direct marine
business contributed a small profit while both aviation and motor recorded small
losses.
The prudence of Amlin's reserving policy was demonstrated by releases in
reserves from the 1998 and prior years in each of its managed syndicates.
2000 year of account forecasts
Syndicate No. Capacity £m % owned by Amlin Latest forecast Previous forecast
% to% % to %
902 37.6 56.7% (32.5) to (27.5) (32.5) to (27.5)
1141 76.2 69.7% (28.0) to (23.0) (28.0) to (23.0)
2001 423.4 55.8% (4.0) to 1.0 (5.0) to 0.0
Total 537.2 (9.4) - (4.4) (10.2) to (5.2)
Whilst the majority of the 11 September terrorist attacks impact the 2001 year
of account, the 2000 year of account contains related losses of £1.4 million,
£0.2 million and £17.2 million for Syndicates 902, 1141 and 2001 respectively.
2000 was the last year of account underwritten by Syndicates 902 and 1141, and
forecasts for these syndicates remain in line with previous expectations. The
Syndicate 2001 forecast has improved as claim development has continued to be
better than that previously expected.
For Syndicate 2001, as in 1999, the XL account performed well in 2000,
offsetting losses from the US casualty and direct property accounts. The direct
marine account is expected to close at around break-even and the UK commercial
motor account has returned to profit. The aviation account was adversely
affected by the events of 11 September 2001 without which it would have operated
at around break-even.
2001 year of account
The 2001 year of account has benefited from rate improvements being achieved
prior to 11 September, the material improvements in rates following the attacks,
and from the benefits of the corporate re-organisation carried out at the end of
2000.
Whilst the development of the account is still in its early stages, with a large
part of the business still on risk, most areas are presently indicating good
levels of profitability before taking account of the impact of the events of 11
September 2001.
Amlin continues to believe that the underlying improvement in Syndicate 2001's
performance will mitigate significantly the estimated impact of the terrorist
attacks on 11 September 2001. The geographical and class diversity of the
syndicate's underwriting are key factors in providing a balance to the impact of
a single catastrophic loss. For example, the UK motor account, which represents
approximately £100 million of gross premium, is expected to return a strong
profit.
11 September
The overall effect of the 11 September terrorist losses remains in line with
that set out in the Company's listing particulars dated 20 December 2001. The
projected net loss to Amlin's managed syndicates at that stage was £88 million
before tax, of which Amlin's share amounted to £60 million.
Current trading and outlook
Trading conditions during the January renewal season were very strong.
The following is indicative of improved terms that were achieved on renewal:
US catastrophe + 25%
International catastrophe + 75%
Direct property + 70%
Marine Hull + 44%
Generally, policy terms are being tightened, insured retentions are increasing
and terrorism cover is being limited or excluded in a number of areas.
During the January renewal season, Amlin also completed the placement of its own
reinsurance programme for the same cost relative to forecast gross premium as it
achieved in 2001, although there was an increase in deductibles and a higher
level of co-insurance. Syndicate 2001's 2002 underwriting is not expected to
lead to any material increases in risk profile under 'Realistic Disaster
Scenarios'.
As noted in its previous trading update, Amlin expects trading conditions over
the medium term to be strong. Consequently, in addition to the 40% increase in
Syndicate 2001's capacity to £800 million, Amlin is pleased to confirm that it
has arranged a qualifying quota share reinsurance facility with XL Re, which
will enable it to underwrite up to £50 million of premium income in excess of
this capacity. This arrangement, which has also been secured for the 2003 year
of account, should enhance Syndicate 2001's return on capital as it receives
fees and commissions.
Charles Philipps, Chief Executive of Amlin, said:
'We are very positive about the outlook for Amlin over the medium term.
Improving trends in all business areas are evident and we are examining all
means of maximising shareholder returns in this hard market, as exemplified by
our quota share facility with XL Re. Underwriting conditions are strong and we
have grown our business in line with our strategy to take full advantage of
this.'
Enquires:
Charles Philipps, Amlin plc 0207 746 1050
Richard Hextall, Amlin plc 0207 746 1054
David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0207 417 8989
This information is provided by RNS
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