Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
16 July 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American markets were up 1.5% in June, underperforming the global
emerging markets and global indices for the second month in a row. Year to date,
however, Latin America continues to outperform both its emerging market peers
and the U.S. markets with a stunning performance of 18.5% (MSCI Latin in
sterling terms). Within Latin America, Argentina and Venezuela (again) were the
strongest performers in June, up 11.4% and 10.8% in sterling terms respectively.
Brazil, on the other hand, was the weakest performer in the region with the MSCI
Brazil index down 0.6% for the month. Mexico, the largest weight in the
Portfolio, outperformed the region and was up 2.9% for the month. The Latin
sector performance was led by industrials and consumer stocks, with utilities
and financials weakening. Regional performance was helped by stable debt
spreads, stable-to-strengthening currencies, and a positive global equity market
backdrop. Less positive were generally weaker commodity prices, led by gold and
pulp. Year to date, Brazil and Argentina remain Latin America's strongest
performers up 24.2% and 45.3% in sterling respectively.
The net asset value slightly outperformed the index for the month, up 1.7%. As
in May, the country allocation was slightly negative for the month, given the
rise in Argentina and Venezuela, where we have no exposure. Stock selection was
positive for the second month again aided by the holdings in Brazil. For the
year to date, the net asset value is now up 14.5% versus the index of 18.5%.
Brazil
The Brazilian MSCI declined by 0.6% for the month despite the currency gaining
over 3% against the pound. The equity market declined despite the Central Bank's
50 b.p. cut in the interest rate, which the market did not initially digest as
positive given year over year inflation data. Expectations for inflation have
moderated, however, and subsequently the Central Bank relaxed the target hinting
that more interest rate cuts are in the offing. Despite signs of continued weak
economic growth, Lula's popularity remains high as do expectations for continued
progress on the government's reform agenda. Also, June saw much regulatory noise
surrounding the fixed-line telephony and electricity sectors with electricity
sector stock performance (up strongly in May) particularly hard hit and with
telco tariffs finally better than expected. With respect to the stock level
performance, an unexpected large order of aircraft sent Embraer flying, and was
one of the largest contributors to the monthly performance. Other large cap
gainers included steel companies CSN and Gerdau and Petrobras, all owned in the
Portfolio. We are overweight Brazil, at 45.8% versus 41.8% with a growing
concentration in names which benefit from a strengthening currency.
Mexico
Mexico was the best performing large cap market for the month, up 2.9% in
sterling, with stocks such as Telmex, Televisa, Wal-Mex, Cemex, America Movil
and Femsa all contributing positively. The Mexican peso was off against the
pound, by 2.5%. Domestic interest rates are at near historic lows, and inflation
remains not a threat, however economic growth remains stagnant. Industrial
production fell nearly 5% year on year through April. Most of the political
focus was on the upcoming congressional elections slated for 6 July, as the PRI
appeared to be gaining ground over the PAN. We remain overweight Mexico on the
premise of solid companies at historically low valuations and prospects for
better growth in the near term.
Chile
The Chilean MSCI slightly outperformed the regional index for the month, up 1.6%
in sterling terms. The Portfolio is markedly underweight the index, at 3.5%
versus 10.1%. The Chilean peso strengthened slightly for the month, up 0.7% and
May's economic recovery data came in better than the seasonally weak April. The
Central Bank left rates on hold, at 2.8%, as inflation moderated. The government
pushed forward with a tax increase agenda to support the fiscal accounts. The
biggest corporate event was the US $2 billion Enersis capital increase. Our
holdings remain focussed on the largest domestic bank and fixed line telephony
company and given liquidity factors we are less inclined to add measurably to
the country.
Argentina
The Argentine MSCI was up strongly for the month, up 11.4% and leading the
region, despite the announcement of capital controls late in the month. The
currency continued to strengthen against the pound, up 0.6%, unfazed by the
currency announcement, as Kirchner's popularity is high and economic activity on
the rebound. The government's exchange decree is an attempt to deter speculative
flows and to maintain a competitive exchange rate. The first quarter GDP rose by
over 5% year over year, as an expansive monetary policy, improving tradeables
sector and import substitution driving the recovery. Despite decent headline
figures, the Trust remain uninvested in Argentina directly, as the Portfolio
Manager considers the risk of investing too high. Instead, the Trust will
benefit indirectly via its holdings in companies which own Argentine assets such
as Petrobras, Coca-Cola Femsa and Ambev.
Venezuela / Peru
The Venezuelan market remained very strong in June, up 10.8% as continued local
share conversion to ADR's was allowed. Fundamentally, the Chavez government
bought itself some fiscal latitude, as they sold bonds to Quatar and China and
oil prices remained strong. There is no evidence of a calming on the political
side, and despite expectations of currency regime modifications, the black
market rate hovers around 2,500 to the dollar. Expectations of a severe GDP
contraction for the year are growing, as is the possibility of further unrest.
We have no exposure to this market for reasons that are clear.
The Peruvian market fell for the month of June, off by 1.2% in sterling. Equity
market sentiment has hurt by ongoing political concerns and wider debt spreads.
The political situation remains volatile, with President Toledo's popularity
falling further to a historic low of 11%, widespread strikes and another cabinet
reshuffle. Our sole holding is a mining exporter of gold and silver,
Buenaventura which contributed positively to the Trust's performance for the
month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
30/06/03 31/05/03 30/06/03 31/05/03
66.6p 65.5p 73.7p 72.8p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/06/03 31/05/03
Ordinary Shares 55.75p 54.50p
Warrants 9.75p 8.75p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.8 million (£31.3 million).
Market exposure
30/06/03 31/05/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 45.8 46.6
Chile 3.5 4.2
Mexico 47.8 45.6
Peru 1.8 2.1
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.9 98.5
Net Current Assets 1.1 1.5
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £34.9 million (£34.4 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 30/06/03 31/05/03
9.5% 9.7%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £34.4 million equal to 99.7% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,461 12.9
Telmex Mexico 3,484 10.1
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,257 9.4
Ambev Brazil 2,116 6.1
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,918 5.6
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,815 5.3
Banco Itau Brazil 1,704 4.9
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,679 4.9
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,673 4.9
Cemex Mexico 1,661 4.8
America Movil Mexico 1,466 4.3
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,380 4.0
Femsa Mexico 1,152 3.3
Grupo Modelo Mexico 844 2.4
Bco Bradesco Brazil 832 2.4
Gerdau Brazil 819 2.4
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 730 2.1
Telecom de Chile Chile 686 2.0
Minas Buenaventura Peru 638 1.9
Pao de Acucar Brazil 524 1.5
Sider Nacional Brazil 451 1.3
Bco Santander Chile 434 1.3
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 334 1.0
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 200 0.6
Votorantim Celulos Brazil 117 0.3
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange EADAIRLIV