Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
18 March 2002
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2002
SUMMARY
February was a good month overall for Latin American markets: the index rose by
3.2% in sterling terms, led by a strong rally in Brazil (up 14.1% after an
interest rate cut), and Mexico was finally awarded a coveted investment grade
rating by Standard & Poor's. The region outperformed the rest of emerging
markets, as MSCI EMF rose by only 1.3%, and also the developed markets of MSCI
World which were affected by the fallout from the Enron collapse. This strong
relative performance comes despite the continuing policy standstill in Argentina
and a devaluation in Venezuela.
Our own performance was good in February, when our NAV rose by 4.3%, ahead of
the index. This was due to good stock selection in Mexico and our underweight in
Argentina. For our financial year ending 28 February, our NAV fell by 1.8%
against an index decline of 2.7%. This compares well in absolute terms with the
decline of 13.6% in the developed markets of MSCI World over the same period.
We maintain our positive outlook on Latin America for the year ahead: though a
certain amount of good news has been priced into the Mexican market, debt
spreads continue to fall and there are signs that the US recovery may have
already begun. Brazil looks set to perform relatively well as falling inflation
will allow further interest rate cuts and politics, though potentially volatile
ahead of October's presidential election, should not derail an incipient
economic recovery. We have been moving steadily to increase our Brazil weighting
over the past six weeks and intend to continue as opportunities arise.
MEXICO
Mexico traded down slightly in February (falling by 2.6%), as the market had
largely discounted the long-awaited S&P upgrade, which was eventually granted a
year after Moody's ratings changed. Stronger than anticipated headline inflation
in January caused by public sector tariff increases made the Central Bank
tighten monetary policy in a precautionary move. However, inflation data for
February has been much more benign, reflecting steep declines in food prices.
Industrial production and export figures continue to look weak, but indications
of an upturn in the US manufacturing sector are causing expectations to improve.
During the month, several of our more cyclical holdings such as autoparts
producer Grupo Industrial Saltillo performed strongly. Our overweight position
in Coca Cola Femsa served us well, as it announced a significant real price
increase in its territories that will boost EBITDA growth to almost 15%. We have
adopted a cautious strategy, reducing some names which we think are now closer
to fair value and adding to laggards such as Cemex, which will benefit from both
a US and a Mexican recovery.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian market led the region higher in February, as positive newsflow
attracted domestic and foreign buyers back into the market. The end of
electricity rationing was formally announced and government minister Jose Serra
declared his candidacy for the Presidential elections. Moody's also raised its
outlook on Brazil. The key event was the surprise decision to cut interest rates
by 25bps to 18.75% on 20 February. Although there has been some deceleration in
inflation, with February IPCA showing a month on month increase of 0.4%, the
12-month figure is still high at 7.5%. The Central Bank now seems to have set
its sights on the less ambitious goal of bringing inflation down to the top of
its target range this year. We should watch the trend in oil prices, as higher
prices would begin to pressure Brazilian inflation again. Despite some
volatility in the market in recent days, caused in particular by a row over
corruption investigations into presidential candidate Roseana Sarney's husband,
the currency has stayed firm and we believe that Brazil can still show good
upside from here.
In February we saw a strong rally in many of the most liquid names in Brazil;
from our portfolio, Banco Itau, Petrobras and Copel did particularly well. Many
of the smaller telecoms names continued to underperform, affected by concerns
over liquidity and refinancing.
CHILE
The Chilean market rose by 0.4% in February, supported by a further 50bps rate
cut to 5.5%. The rate cut was triggered by weaker than expected economic data
for December and recent deflationary trends. There are signs of recovery in the
economy but they are still patchy. However the Chilean currency has strengthened
after several months of Argentina-induced weakness, given the prospects of a
global recovery in demand for Chilean-produced commodities such as copper.
Despite the continued problems at corporates such as Enersis and Andina which
are exposed to Argentina, shares in retailer DyS outperformed as it released
stronger earnings and the outlook for consumption improved. We have reduced our
weighting in CTC after a period of relatively good performance as we believe
Brazilian shares offer more upside at this point.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine market fell heavily in February, down by 13.7% in sterling terms
as the government allowed the currency to float freely despite ongoing
restrictions on bank deposits. Economic data remained very weak, with industrial
production declining by 18.4% year on year in January. The government has
announced a new economic plan and reached a revenue-sharing agreement with the
Provinces who will in turn be required to reduce their fiscal deficits by 60%.
However, budget assumptions are far from credible and any new IMF financing is
still far away. There are ongoing rumours of international banks stepping in to
rescue Argentina's largest independent privately-owned bank, Galicia, which was
hit hard by the crisis. We are content to remain on the sidelines until the
exchange rate and the direction of the economy becomes clearer.
ANDEAN MARKETS
Of the smaller markets, Peru ended February in positive territory, up 5.8% led
by gold producer Buenaventura on rising gold prices, and banking group Credicorp
on hopes of economic recovery. December GDP figures for Peru showed 4.1% growth
year on year, led by the mining and energy sector.
However, both the Colombian and Venezuelan markets fell heavily in sterling
terms, down 12.8% and 10.7% respectively. Colombia was affected by fallout from
the ending of peace talks with the FARC guerrilla group and re-taking of the
demilitarised zone by the Colombian army. Polls currently show independent
candidate Alvaro Uribe, who has a more hardline approach to the peace process,
could win the presidential race in the first round.
Venezuela surprised the market in February with a decision to float the local
currency, the Bolivar. After months of lower oil prices, ongoing capital flight
and high government spending, there was an urgent need to boost the country's
finances. There will be an immediate gain from the devaluation, which is of the
order of 30% against the dollar, as oil revenues will be worth more in local
currency terms. President Chavez also announced plans to reduce the oil price
assumed in the budget, and to trim spending. The initial reaction by the bond
and stock markets was positive, despite ongoing political noise including
forceful criticisms levelled at Chavez by several senior members of the Armed
Forces. We added a small position in telecom provider CANTV last month, which is
trading at a highly depressed valuation.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
28/02/02 31/01/02 28/02/02 31/01/02
87.7p 84.1p 90.3p 87.4p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 28/02/02 31/01/02
Ordinary Shares 70.75p 67.25p
Warrants 14.25p 13.75p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.9 million (£40.1 million).
Market exposure
28/02/02 31/01/02
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 32.7 29.2
Chile 8.2 9.5
Mexico 39.4 41.0
Venezuela 0.5 -
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 80.8 79.7
Net Current Assets 19.2 20.3
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £52.5 million (£50.8 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 28/02/02 31/01/02
25.3% 26.4%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £38.2 million equal to 89.9% of total portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Telmex 6,037 14.2
Mexico
Petrobras 4,305 10.1
Brazil
Banco Itau 2,289 5.4
Brazil
Wal-Mart de Mexico 2,249 5.3
Mexico
G.F BBVA-Bancomer 1,960 4.6
Mexico
Ambev 1,783 4.2
Brazil
Vale do Rio Doce 1,642 3.9
Brazil
Cemex 1,554 3.7
Mexico
Grupo Modelo 1,475 3.5
Mexico
America Movil 1,459 3.4
Brazil
Grupo Televisa 1,441 3.4
Mexico
Eletrobras 1,250 2.9
Brazil
Tele Norte Leste 1,149 2.7
Brazil
Coca-Cola Femsa 1,137 2.7
Mexico
Itausa Inv 992 2.3
Brazil
Consorcio Ara 927 2.2
Mexico
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico 897 2.1
Mexico
Pao de Acucar 830 2.0
Brazil
Femsa 747 1.8
Mexico
D & S 728 1.7
Chile
Gerdau 697 1.6
Brazil
Telecom de Chile 692 1.6
Chile
Copel 690 1.6
Brazil
Brasil Telecom 657 1.6
Brazil
Enersis 576 1.4
Chile
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Preliminary Results Announced 22 April 2002
For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust
Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established
scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main
register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope
on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche
Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly
reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at
www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be
aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values
can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they
invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your
investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents
those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/
or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange