Update on Trading Outlook
Ryanair Holdings PLC
18 September 2001
RYANAIR COMMENTS ON CURRENT TRADING AND BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOLLOWING THE
TERRORIST ATROCITIES IN THE U.S. LAST WEEK
Ryanair, Europe's largest low fares airline, today briefed the markets on the
impact of last weeks terrorist attacks in the U.S. on current trading and
business outlook for the near-term future.
Ryanair's Chief Executive, Michael O'Leary said;
'Obviously at this time our thoughts continue to be with the victims of
last week's terrorist attacks in the U.S., their friends and families, and
those workers who are engaged in a Herculean effort to rescue any
survivors. They are all in our thoughts and prayers.
'It was clearly inappropriate last week to comment on the many queries we
received from both investors and the media concerning the implications of
the tragedy and its aftermath upon our business. The air transport
industry faces huge challenges and it is now appropriate to address any
issues of concern to our passengers, our shareholders and our people.
'Whilst we remain cautious about the current trading environment, we see
no reason - at this time - to change the consensus range of analyst
estimates for either the current quarter or this fiscal year. The
immediate impact of last week's events upon Ryanair were limited. Out of a
total schedule of 1,800 flights over the past seven days, we were obliged
to cancel only 16, and only half of those were due to the cumulative
impact of additional security measures at some of our airports in the
early part of the week.
'Whilst people's attention was understandably elsewhere on Wednesday and
Thursday last, bookings fell by approximately 20%, but overall for the
week our bookings were down 10% on normal. Bookings have returned to
normal levels, and we would expect to recover last weeks slippage over the
coming days with a number of seat promotions which we have planned.
Advance bookings and loads remain strong, and therefore the immediate
consequences of last week's events on Ryanair will not be material.
'Whilst clearly we cannot predict the impact of any military response by
the U.S. and its allies, on either the airline industry in general, or
Ryanair in particular, we would draw the attention of investors to the
following significant features of Ryanair's operations;
* Ryanair has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, with more
than e 700m. in cash and is well placed to weather any economic or traffic
downturn.
* Ryanair's fuel is fully hedged for the coming 12 months at current
budget rates.
* Ryanair is a point to point airline within Europe We have no connecting
traffic and are not directly exposed to any downturn in such traffic
either on transatlantic routes or at hub airports.
* Ryanair operates its point to point services principally between
secondary airports where it has proven somewhat easier to implement the
additional security measures requested by the various authorities, and
this was confirmed by the high percentage of completions and relative lack
of delays last week.
* We do not expect last week's events in the U.S. to have any significant
impact on short-haul domestic or intra-European air travel which is
Ryanair's trading sector.
* To the extent that an economic downturn or recession is the consequence
of last week's events, we expect that this will continue to enhance
Ryanair's growth prospects (as people become more price conscious for both
business and leisure travel), albeit that this growth may be generated at
lower fares and yields.
* One area where costs will rise is aviation insurance, which will clearly
be effected by last week's events, but we believe that we are better
placed (than our competitors) to cope with any such increases, given that
we have the largest margins in the industry.
'Obviously any of these predictions will be subject to the impact and
outcome of any military response by the U.S. and its Allies, but in the
interim Ryanair remains cautiously optimistic that current trading and our
immediate future prospects will not be effected to any material extent,
and we see no reason why current consensus estimates should be altered.
'Over the medium term we may see some further opportunities with low cost
arrangements being offered by a number of airports who previously would
not have looked to Ryanair for traffic growth, and there will be a
continuing downward impact on values of new and second-hand aircraft which
may enable Ryanair to acquire up to 50 aircraft which we need in order to
maintain our growth over the period from 2003 onwards.
'Obviously at a macro level, Ryanair would be very concerned if - in the
aftermath of last weeks terrorist strikes - a number of loss making
European flag carriers were to receive further state aid. It is our view
that this would not be justified. State aid to selected state airlines
that were loss making before last weeks events cannot be justified by the
impact of last weeks events.
'Ryanair has written to the European Commission urging it not to alter its
policy on state aid to flag carrier airlines or, to the extent that any
such aid is considered that it be applied equally to all airlines and all
passengers by means of reducing passenger taxes or landing and passenger
charges at European airports, rather than straight subsidies to
inefficient and loss making airlines. It must be the policy of the EU and
the airlines to restore normality as quickly as possible, and promote/
encourage consumers to continue to travel, which is after all the most
effective response that we can send to the terrorists who carried out the
atrocities in the U.S. last week.'
For further information:
Ryanair does not propose to comment further on the consequences of last week's
events in the U.S. The above statement fully reflects Ryanair's position at
this time. Any further update will be provided - if appropriate - at the
company's AGM on September 25th next.
www.RYANAIR.COM - The low fares website
Certain of the information included in this release is forward looking and is
subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results
to differ materially. It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many
factors and specific events that could affect the outlook and results of an
airline operating in the European economy. Among the factors that are subject
to change and could significantly impact Ryanair's expected results are the
airline pricing environment, fuel costs, competition from new and existing
carriers, market prices for replacement aircraft, costs associated with
environmental, safety and security measures, actions of the Irish, U.K.,
European Union ('EU') and other governments and their respective regulatory
agencies, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport
access and charges, labour relations, the economic environment of the airline
industry, the general economic environment in Ireland, the UK and Continental
Europe, the general willingness of passengers to travel and other economics,
social and political factors.
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