Monthly Investment Report - September 2025
Summary by AI BETAClose X
9 October 2025
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41966)
(the "Company")
Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for September 2025:
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/6090C_1-2025-10-8.pdf
September had a Groundhog Day feel for the fund, being in many respects an amplified August. Gold miners were once again the standout performance driver during a bumper month for bullion. The metal rose by c12% in USD to surpass its previous all time inflation-adjusted high in 1980. European fiscal angst helped catalyse the latest move higher, but rate cuts (real and anticipated) allied to continuing concerns around Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, the dollar and geopolitical risks - including Putin's escalating game of chicken with NATO - all played a part. We continued to take profits in our gold miners, which have delivered more than twice bullion's performance this year. We now have around 5% in gold miners, down from a peak of around 10% in total precious metals exposure earlier in the year. Whilst we remain constructive on gold longer term, miners are attracting much speculation. Even crypto titans are piling in! If they keep going, we still have plenty left in the tank.
The board have continued their buybacks. Over the third quarter, they have purchased over 5.4 million shares. This brings the year to date total to over 36 million shares, or £100.9m, which equates to 11% of the shares outstanding at the start of the year.
The Fed's rate cut reflects a shift in its focus away from inflation and towards the risks to economic growth, even though core US inflation has now been at or above 3% for five years in a row (the target for headline inflation is around 2%). A second consecutive soggy US payrolls print at the start of the month suggested a labour market slowdown. The fund's bonds provided a small positive as yields fell. But the economic outlook is far from clear. The labour market may be misleading, with potentially less malign explanations in immigration policy changes, AI impacts on graduate hiring, and a 'no hire, no fire' dynamic against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. At a very rich multiple of 23x the next 12 months' prospective earnings, S&P 500 stocks are implicitly dismissing job jitters. They are buoyed instead by further expected Fed cuts, continuing AI capex, and the prospect of the White House trying to juice the US economy into 2026's mid-term elections. Around a quarter of the portfolio is now in equities (excluding gold miners), and these were the second largest performance contributor. We continued to take profits, including from our China tech exposure, which is enjoying the AI tailwind. We retain a small position in copper exposure and dipped a toe back into the oil market, reflecting the potential for a more reflationary dynamic into next year.
Unsurprisingly given the robust backdrop in stock markets, our derivative protections were the main drag on performance. We bolstered them over the month, including the return of VIX call options, which profit from jumps in market volatility. They sit alongside our extensive stock market downside protections and defences against higher borrowing costs in credit markets which are - to our eyes - deeply complacently valued. So our cautious positioning reflects elevated market valuations, sentiment and positioning facing a plethora of potential near-term potholes, including delayed tariff fallout, uncertainty over the path of economic growth, inflation and rates plus cracks in the credit market. And, as firms compete to announce the biggest AI capex numbers for very uncertain returns, one doesn't need to be a Delphic oracle to see that there's some froth around.
Enquiries:
Apex Fund and Corporate Services (Guernsey) Limited
Company Secretary
Nicole Liebenberg
DDI: +44(0)20 3530 3653
Email: ruffercosec@apexgroup.com
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