Monthly Investment Report November 2020
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)
LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47
Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for November 2020.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9466H_1-2020-12-8.pdf
During November, the net asset value of the Company rose by 5.2%. This compares with an increase of 12.7% in the FTSE All-Share index.
The arrival of Pfizer's efficacy figures for its vaccine on 9 November saw what Jon Dye, our Head of Research, memorably referred to as an "up-crash" in markets and indeed it was one of the most extraordinary days in stock index history. The momentum factor, a popular algorithmic trading strategy that buys the best-performing stocks, whilst going short of the worst-performing stocks, fell by 24% - an eight standard deviation event. Over the month as a whole, the MSCI World equity index (like many others) saw its strongest return (+12.2%) since 1987; for the storied Dow Jones index in the US it was the fourth best month since the Great Depression era (+11.8%).
The Company's average equity position performed similarly strongly rising over 15%, reflecting our ongoing tilt towards recovery-sensitive value stocks. Our equities overall contributed 5.9% to the monthly performance. On the other side of the ledger were those protective assets that performed so strongly in the down-crash of March: options (-0.3%) and gold (-0.5%). The damage here has been limited by profit-taking in recent months.
Conspicuous by its absence from these statistics is the bond market. Bond yields hardly reacted in November. Their progress from here is of enormous importance for asset prices. Equity markets are racing to assert that the vaccine allows the investor a line of sight to strong economic growth in 2021. If bond markets come to share this view, then yields could rise steeply. This would undermine the central foundation of high asset prices. Gold, growth stocks and credit would all suffer. Few assets would benefit with value stocks, especially energy and financial stocks being the exception. These are well represented in the portfolio. If, instead, the US Federal Reserve succeeds in capping bond yields, while taking a relaxed stance on rising inflation, then initially all asset classes may benefit, with the notable exception of the US dollar. Commodities and inflation-linked bonds will likely be at the forefront.
So where now for markets and the Company? Conscious of the economic reality on the ground, the portfolio is protected against a deflationary default cycle with the credit protection strategies that performed so well in March. Our greater conviction, however, is that governments will continue to rely on the now trusted 'More Money Today' strategy of fiscal and monetary stimulus, making today's lockdowns yesterday's concern. The vaccines allow equity markets to see a bridge to a brighter world, just over the horizon. If this is right, then value stocks will have their day in the sun, before the hangover of dealing with the financial cost of the pandemic is truly addressed through financial repression. Our equity exposure is designed to benefit from this interlude and the index-linked bonds are there for the aftermath
Enquiries:
Praxis Fund Services Limited
Gail Adams
DDI: +44(0)1481 755584
Email: ric@praxisifm.com
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