Monthly Investment Report July 2022
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)
LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47
Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for July 2022.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/1451V_1-2022-8-5.pdf
During July, the net asset value of the Company rose by 0.1%. This compared to the FTSE All-Share TR which rose by 4.4%.
In June almost all asset classes posted a negative return in the face of a surprise increase in the US inflation rate (US CPI rose from 8.3% to 8.6%) and the prospect of increased monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve. In July, risk appetite roared back even as inflation increased again, from 8.6% to 9.1%, and the US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 75bps for the second month in a row. The fund was broadly flat on the month, its defensive positioning articulated in last month's factsheet holding it back. Underneath the surface, performance contributions from the fund's equity exposure (+1.1%) and UK long-dated index-linked bonds (+1.2%) were offset by the unconventional protections (-1.6%) and gold exposure (-0.1%).
What explains the positive market outturns in a month which, according to Deutsche Bank, saw one of the steepest quarter-on-quarter declines in underlying company earnings in the last decade? We are back in the territory of bad news being good news for equity and bond markets. Over the last few months, investor expectations have shifted from stagflation risk to recession risk and are now to starting to re-price the re-establishment of a Fed 'put' - the moment when the US Federal Reserve will abandon its monetary tightening and focus on growth stabilisation which will either directly or indirectly support equity markets. Interest rate futures now price that the central bank will be cutting interest rates by early next year.
How likely is this outcome? Possible, but not likely. We have been through numerous 'unprecedented' events in the last few years. 'Unprecedented' amounts of peace-time fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021, combined with 'unprecedented' monetary policy; but it would be truly unprecedented to slow the economy sufficiently to bring down the highest inflation rate for 40 years with an after-inflation policy rate that never goes positive. It would require a much deeper economic slowdown than is implied in 2023 earnings estimates, which have barely budged.
This bear market is not over, and we believe that we are entering its most dangerous phase. Liquidity is being drained from the financial system. Jamie Dannhauser, Ruffer's Economist, covered this in detail in the latest Green Line - https://www.ruffer.co.uk/en/thinking/articles/the-green-line/2022-07-the-green-line . The interest rate on US dollar short-dated bonds is now providing a genuine alternative to taking risk. One of the pushbacks to the view that a move lower in equity markets was likely, was the already extremely bearish investor sentiment and positioning. A low-liquidity summer rally, sucking in those who can't afford relative underperformance, should see this box ticked. We have used the last month's moves to reduce direct equity exposure further to try and ensure the portfolio is robust to the risks we see. Capital preservation is at the forefront of our minds.
Enquiries:
Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited
Jamie Dodd
DDI: +44(0)1481 755584
Email: ric@praxisifm.com
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