Monthly Investment Report January 2021
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)
LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47
Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for January 2021.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2313O_1-2021-2-6.pdf
During January, the share price rose by 1.8% and the NAV fell by 0.1%. This compared with a fall of 0.8% in the FTSE All-Share total return index.
In our December report we opined that the market consensus expected the combination of ongoing fiscal largesse and vaccine-induced economic re-opening would continue to drive another positive year for stocks and a rotation from 'growth' to 'value'. Catalysed by the Georgia senate elections, which seemingly gave US President Joe Biden an unencumbered path to huge further spending, the rotation continued, and equity markets reached yet higher all-time highs by the middle of the month. We used this backdrop to take profits in some of our more economically sensitive names preferring more defensive businesses, such as healthcare, in the short term. Over the subsequent two weeks, the reality of 'gray rhinos' (large, known but unaddressed risks) moved back into plain sight. Whilst the vaccines continued to show the efficacy that we had all hoped for, inevitable complications have arisen in their distribution and this called into question the smooth re-opening that markets had begun to price in. Strangely, having botched much of the virus response, the UK is looking to be amongst the world leaders in vaccine distribution. This gives hope for a relatively faster domestic re-opening, even if borders take longer to follow suit.
A weakening US dollar has been one of the drivers behind the performance of equity markets in recent months. If we see a return to US exceptionalism, at least in an economic sense, then this trend might pause. This in part reinforces the increase we made to the US dollar position at the end of 2020 and why we have avoided letting our equity weighting drift higher.
The last week of January saw some extraordinary individual share price action as retail investors ganged up to target individual equities where hedge funds held large short positions. The David and Goliath nature of the story has captured the imagination of the press but taking a step back it reveals some more interesting insights into market dynamics. The appearance of retail investors at the party is often a harbinger of over-exuberant markets and many previous bubbles have coincided with an increase in investors (or should that be speculators) trading on margin - the equivalent here has been the ease of access for retail players to options and other derivative instruments. These events also show that when there is ample liquidity available (cheques dropping through the letterbox) and no way to spend it then geysers will emerge. It is perhaps instructive as to how consumers will behave when lockdown is lifted.
We will be holding our bi-annual shareholder webinar on Wednesday 24 February at 8.30am, where we will focus on investment strategy and outlook. Please click here or email ruffer@ruffer.co.uk if you would like to register.
Enquiries:
Praxis Fund Services Limited
Gail Adams
DDI: +44(0)1481 755584
Email: ric@praxisifm.com
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