Monthly Investment Report - April 2025
15 May 2025
RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41966)
(the "Company")
Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for April 2025:
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7015I_1-2025-5-14.pdf
Sometimes it can be hard to see the wood for the trees. Simply recounting the events of a tumultuous April - which turned out to be the fifth most volatile month for US equities since 1928, but also saw the S&P 500 close just 0.7% down for the month - would give little sense of President Trump's impact on financial markets. Since the US equity market made its postelection peak in early February, sentiment had already been turning against the early optimism over the second Trump administration. Initially, this took the form of a benign rotation away from US equities and the dollar and into other global assets. But in April, with Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements, things took a turn for the worse.
Investors, who had blithely been assuming Trump's bark was worse than his bite and tariffs were just a negotiating tool, had a rude awakening on 2 April. First, sweeping tariffs were announced and then Trump seemed to question the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Not only did US equities fall sharply, registering their fifth-biggest two-day decline in over 50 years, but supposed safe havens such as the dollar and US treasuries also fell, with the 30 year yield moving above 5%. These are market dynamics typically associated with emerging markets, not the issuer of the primary global reserve assets. Furthermore, survey evidence suggested confidence in the US economy was falling sharply and the odds of a recession climbed rapidly above 50%. Where was the 'Trump put' or even the 'Fed put' when markets needed them?
The answer was not long in coming. On 8 April, Trump started to row back on his tariff threats, announcing a 90 day pause (with conditions), and the S&P 500 duly posted its best daily performance since October 2008, with a 9.5% gain. Then President Trump said he had 'no intention' of firing Fed Chair Powell, whilst also suggesting he wanted to reach a deal with China. So everything is all right again and the US stock market has broadly roundtripped for the month.
So much for the 'trees', what about the 'wood'? As the dust settles, we can see the dollar fell 5% in April and is almost 9% lower this year. Gold on the other hand rose 5% in the month and is 25% higher year to date. These moves suggest Trump's actions are starting to erode trust in both the US and US assets. We will have to wait to see what damage this episode has done to the real economy in the US, but even if survey data proves too pessimistic, the ongoing uncertainty looks likely to hit business and consumer confidence. Amidst all this noise, the Ruffer portfolio progressed positively in April, benefiting from its volatility and credit protections, as well as its exposure to gold, and is now up 4.4% year to date.
In the short term, investors are clearly relieved by Trump's climb down on tariffs and Fed independence, but we doubt this will last. US stocks remain expensive. The president wants to both reshape global trading patterns and raise income from tariffs to pay for tax cuts. When the 'good news' is tariffs on China might only be 50-65% and Trump has not sacked the most powerful central banker in the world, we believe a portfolio focused on protection and non-US assets looks eminently sensible.
Enquiries:
Apex Fund and Corporate Services (Guernsey) Limited
Company Secretary
Nicole Liebenberg
DDI: +44(0)20 3530 3653
Email: ric@apexgroup.com
LEI: 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47
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