Pre-Close Trading Statement
Summary by AI BETAClose X
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Investec Limited JSE hybrid code: INPR JSE debt code: INLV NSX share code: IVD BSE share code: INVESTEC ISIN: ZAE000081949 LEI: 213800CU7SM6O4UWOZ70 |
Investec plc JSE share code: INP LEI: 2138007Z3U5GWDN3MY22 |
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Group pre-close trading update and trading statement
19 September 2025
Investec Group today announces its scheduled pre-close trading update for the interim period ending 30 September 2025 (1H2026). An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 10:00 South African time. Please register for the call at www.investec.com/investorrelations.
Commentary on the Group's financial performance in this pre-close trading update represents the five months ended 31 August 2025 and compares forecast 1H2026 to 1H2025 (30 September 2024).
1H2026 earnings update and guidance
The Group's results for 1H2026 are expected to be in line with the prior period. Our solid performance and strong capital generation has enabled us to continue supporting our clients while accelerating investment in identified growth initiatives.
The Group continued to make progress on our strategic objectives, notwithstanding the challenging macroeconomic backdrop and market volatility that prevailed year to date. We are on track with our strategy to build scale, leverage existing client franchises and execute plans to enhance our proposition. As part of ongoing capital management, the Group has repurchased c.R1.1 billion / c.£46 million of the c.R2.5 billion / c.£100 million share buy-back programme announced in May 2025. We remain committed to advancing returns towards the upper end of our target range by FY2030.
For the six months ended 30 September 2025, the Group expects:
· Adjusted earnings per share of 38.7p to 41.5p (1H2025: 39.5p) or c.2% behind to c.5% ahead of prior period
· Headline earnings per share of 35.2p to 38.0p (1H2025: 36.6p) or c.4% behind to c.4% ahead of prior period
· Basic earnings per share of 36.0p to 38.8p (1H2025: 36.6p) or c.2% behind to c.6% ahead of prior period
· Pre-provision adjusted operating profit to be between £509.4 million and £540.3 million (1H2025: £541.6 million) or c.6% behind to flat relative to prior period
· Credit loss ratio to be within the through-the-cycle (TTC) range of 25bps to 45bps. The overall credit quality remained strong
· Cost to income ratio to be between 52% and 54%, in line with full year guidance
· Adjusted operating profit before tax between £451.0 million and £481.8 million
(1H2025: £474.7 million)
o In Southern Africa, the Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be ahead of prior period by up to c.7% in Rands (1H2025: R5 251 million, £224.6 million). Group Investments is expected to be behind the strong prior period, resulting in the overall Southern African business adjusted operating profit of c.5% behind to flat versus prior period in Rands (1H2025: R5 890 million, £252.0 million). The credit loss ratio is expected to be around the lower end of the TTC range of 15bps to 35bps. The Southern African business ROE is expected to be c.18.5%, well within the 16% to 20% medium-term target range. The Investec Limited CET1 ratio at 30 June 2025 was 15.3%1 (30 September 2024: 14.8%)
o The UK business, including our interest in Rathbones, adjusted operating profit is expected to be c.1% behind to c.6% ahead of the prior period (1H2025: £222.7 million). The UK Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be c.4% behind to c.4% ahead of the prior period (1H2025: £202.3 million). We expect to report a credit loss ratio around the upper end of the previously guided range of 50bps to 60bps. The UK business ROTE is expected to be c.13%, within the medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. The Investec plc CET1 ratio at 30 June 2025 was 12.2%2 (30 September 2024: 12.6%3)
· Group ROE to be between 13% and 14%, within our medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. Group ROTE is expected to be between 15% and 16%, within the 14% to 18% medium-term range.
The year-to-date performance which formed the basis for the above expectations is summarised below:
· Revenue was supported by increased activity levels, higher average advances, and positive net inflows in discretionary and annuity funds under management (FUM). This was counterbalanced by the negative impact of lower average interest rates and the reduced income from the Group investments portfolio
o Net interest income reflects growth in average lending books, and success in our strategic execution to optimise the funding mix in Southern Africa. This was offset by the endowment effect of declining interest rates
o Non-interest Revenue (NIR) growth was underpinned by strong fee generation from our Banking businesses, as well as higher annuity fees from our SA Wealth & Investment business. The market volatility that prevailed has resulted in increased client demand for hedging, supporting customer flow trading income in the UK. Southern African investment and trading income were behind the prior period which benefitted from the positive sentiment post the GNU formation. NIR also benefitted from growth in the Group's share of Rathbones post-tax underlying profit attributable to shareholders
· Fixed operating expenditure growth reflected continued and accelerated investment in people and technology for strategic growth, as well as inflationary pressures. Variable remuneration was in line with underlying business performance.
1 Investec Limited is predominately on the advanced approach for credit and market risk. Investec Limited's capital information includes unappropriated profits. If unappropriated profits are excluded from capital information, Investec Limited's CET1 ratio would be 186bps (165bps) lower.
2 Investec plc reports capital ratios measured on a Standardised capital measurement approach. Investec plc's June 2025 CET1 ratio excludes quarterly profits and associated foreseeable charges and dividends for the period 1 April 2025 to 30 June 2025. In accordance with the Prudential Regulation Authority rules, quarterly profits may only be included in a firm's capital position once the profits have been independently verified by an external audit firm.
3Investec plc's September 2024 capital disclosures follow Investec's normal basis of presentation and do not include the deduction of foreseeable charges and dividends when calculating the CET1 ratio as required under the Capital Requirements Regulation.
For the five-month period ended 31 August 2025:
· Within Specialist Banking, core loans increased by 4.7% annualised to £33.0 billion
(31 March 2025: £32.4 billion) and increased by 5.5% annualised in neutral currency, driven by growth across the corporate lending books, as well as private client lending in both geographies
· Customer deposits decreased by 1.9% annualised to £40.8 billion and decreased by 1.1% annualised in neutral currency. The decrease is primarily driven by the continuation of our strategy to optimise the liability mix in Southern Africa where non-wholesale deposit growth was 8.5% annualised while wholesale deposits declined by 12.8% annualised
· FUM in our Southern African Wealth business increased by 7.8% to £25.2 billion (31 March 2025: £23.4 billion). Net discretionary and annuity inflows of R9.3 billion were partly offset by outflows of R7.7 billion in non-discretionary FUM
· Investec's associate, Rathbones reported funds under management and administration (FUMA) of £109.0 billion as at 30 June 2025.
The Group has robust capital and liquidity levels to manage the impact of external challenges and deliver on our clear and executable strategy to enhance long-term shareholder returns.
Other information
The financial information on which this trading update and trading statement is based, has not been reviewed and reported on by the external auditors.
An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 10:00 South African time. Please REGISTER HERE for the call.
Interim results and Business update
The interim results for the six months ending 30 September 2025 are scheduled for release on Thursday, 20 November 2025. Following the interim results presentation, the Group will provide an update on our Corporate mid-market growth initiatives.
Webcast details will be provided in due course.
On behalf of the board
Philip Hourquebie (Chair), Fani Titi (Group Chief Executive)
For further information please contact:
Investec Investor Relations
General enquiries: investorrelations@investec.co.za
Results:
Qaqambile Dwayi
SA Tel: +27 (0)83 457 2134
Brunswick (SA PR advisers)
Tim Schultz Tel: +27 (0)82 309 2496
Lansons (UK PR advisers)
Tom Baldock Tel: +44 (0)78 6010 1715
Key income drivers
Core loans
|
£'m |
31-Aug-25 |
31- Mar-25 |
Annualised % change |
Annualised Neutral currency |
|
UK and Other |
17,222 |
16,791 |
6.2% |
6.2% |
|
South Africa |
15,783 |
15,573 |
3.2% |
4.8% |
|
Total |
33,005 |
32,364 |
4.7% |
5.5% |
Customer deposits
|
£'m |
31-Aug-25 |
31- Mar-25 |
Annualised % change |
Annualised Neutral currency |
|
UK and Other |
21,405 |
21,449 |
(0.5%) |
(0.5%) |
|
South Africa |
19,438 |
19,715 |
(3.4%) |
(1.9%) |
|
Total |
40,843 |
41,164 |
(1.9%) |
(1.1%) |
|
Funds under Management (FUM) |
|
|
|
|
|
£'m |
31-Aug-25 |
31-Mar-25 |
% change |
Neutral currency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wealth & Investment - Southern Africa |
25,215 |
23,385 |
7.8% |
8.4% |
|
Discretionary |
15,169 |
13,944 |
8.8% |
9.4% |
|
Non-discretionary |
10,046 |
9,441 |
6.4% |
7.0% |
|
Rathbones Group plc* |
109,000 |
104,100 |
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|
|
|
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Note: Totals and variances are presented in £'millions which may result in rounding differences
* The balance of £109.0bn reflects total FUMA as reported at 30 June 2025 by Investec's associate, Rathbones.
Notes
1. Definitions
· Adjusted operating profit refers to profit before tax of continuing operations, adjusted to remove goodwill, acquired intangibles and strategic actions, including such items within equity accounted earnings, and non-controlling interests. Non-IFRS measures such as adjusted operating profit are considered as pro-forma financial information as per the JSE Listings Requirements. The pro-forma financial information is the responsibility of the Group's Board of Directors. Pro-forma financial information was prepared for illustrative purposes and because of its nature may not fairly present the issuer's financial position, changes in equity or results of operations. This pro-forma financial information has not been reported on by the Group's external auditors
· Adjusted earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders is calculated as earnings attributable to shareholders adjusted to remove goodwill, acquired intangible assets, strategic actions, including such items within equity accounted earnings, and earnings attributable to perpetual preference shareholders and Other additional tier 1 security holders
· Adjusted earnings per share is calculated as adjusted earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders divided by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year
· Headline earnings is an earnings measure required to be calculated and disclosed by the JSE and is calculated in accordance with the guidance provided by The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants in Circular 1/2023
· Headline earnings per share (HEPS) is calculated as headline earnings divided by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year.
· Basic earnings is earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders as defined by IAS33 Earnings Per Share
· Core loans is defined as net loans to customers plus net own originated securitised assets
· The credit loss ratio is calculated as expected credit loss (ECL) impairment charges on gross core loans as a percentage of average gross core loans subject to ECL.
2. Exchange rates
The Group's reporting currency is Pounds Sterling. Certain of the Group's operations are conducted by entities outside the UK. The results of operations and the financial condition of these individual companies are reported in the local currencies in which they are domiciled, including Rands, Australian Dollars, Euros and US Dollars. These results are then translated into Pounds Sterling at the applicable foreign currency exchange rates for inclusion in the Group's combined consolidated financial statements. In the case of the income statement, the weighted average rate for the relevant period is applied and, in the case of the balance sheet, the relevant closing rate is used. The following table sets out the movements in certain relevant exchange rates against the Pound Sterling over the period:
|
|
Five months to 31 August 2025 |
Year ended 31 March 2025 |
Six months ended 30 September 2024 |
|||
|
Currency per GBP1.00 |
Period end |
Average |
Period end |
Average |
Period end |
Average |
|
South African Rand |
23.90 |
24.22 |
23.74 |
23.25 |
23.11 |
23.40 |
|
Euro |
1.16 |
1.17 |
1.20 |
1.19 |
1.20 |
1.18 |
|
US Dollar |
1.35 |
1.34 |
1.29 |
1.28 |
1.34 |
1.28 |
3. Profit forecasts
· The following matters highlighted in this announcement contain forward-looking statements:
§ Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be between 38.7p and 41.5p which is below and ahead of 1H2025 respectively
§ Headline earnings per share is expected to be between 35.2p and 38.0p which is below and ahead of 1H2025 respectively
§ Basic EPS is expected to be between 36.0p and 38.8p which is below and ahead of 1H2025 respectively
§ Pre-provision adjusted operating profit is expected to be between £509.4 million and £540.3 million
§ Adjusted operating profit is expected to be between £451.0 million and £481.8 million (1H2025: £474.7 million)
§ The UK business' (including our interest in Rathbones) adjusted operating profit to be c.1% behind to c.6% ahead of the prior period. The UK Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be 4.0% behind to 4.0% ahead of the prior period. The UK business ROTE is expected to be c.13%, within the medium-term target range of 13% to 17%
§ The Southern African Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit expected to be ahead of prior period by up to c7% in Rands. Group Investments is expected to be behind the strong prior period, resulting in the overall Southern African business adjusted operating profit of c.5% behind to flat versus prior period in Rands (1H2025: R5 890 million, £252.0 million) SA business ROE is expected to be c.18.5% within the 16% to 20% medium-term target range
§ Group ROE is expected to be between 13% and 14%, within the Group's medium-term target range of 13% to 17%.
(collectively the Profit Forecasts)
· The basis of preparation of each of these statements and the assumptions upon which they are based are set out below. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and other factors - which may cause the Group's actual future results, performance or achievements in the markets in which it operates to differ from those expressed in the Profit Forecasts
· Any forward-looking statements made are based on the knowledge of the Group at 18 September 2025
· These forward-looking statements represent a profit forecast under the Listing Rules. The Profit Forecasts relate to the six months ending 30 September 2025
The financial information on which the Profit Forecasts are based is the responsibility of the Directors of the Group and has not been reviewed and reported on by the Group's auditors.
Basis of preparation
· The Profit Forecasts have been compiled using the assumptions stated below, and on a basis consistent with the accounting policies adopted in the Group's March 2025 audited financial statements, which are in accordance with IFRS and are those which the Group anticipates will be applicable for the year ending 31 March 2026.
· The Profit Forecasts have been prepared based on (a) audited financial statements of the Group for the year ended 31 March 2025, and the results of the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses underlying those audited financial statements; (b) the unaudited management accounts of the Group and the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses for the five months to 31 August 2025; and (c) the projected financial performance of the Group and the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses for the remaining one month of the period ending 30 September 2025.
· Percentage changes shown on a neutral currency basis for balance sheet items assume that the relevant closing exchange rates at 31 August 2025 remain the same as those at 31 March 2025. This neutral currency information has not been reported on by the Group's auditors.
Assumptions
The Profit Forecasts have been prepared on the basis of the following assumptions during the forecast period:
Factors outside the influence or control of the Investec Board:
· There will be no material change in the political and/or economic environment that would materially affect the Investec Group
· There will be no material change in legislation or regulation impacting on the Investec Group's operations or its accounting policies
· There will be no business disruption that will have a significant impact on the Investec Group's operations
· The Rand/Pound Sterling and US Dollar/Pound Sterling exchange rates remain materially unchanged from the prevailing rates detailed above
· The tax rates remain materially unchanged
· There will be no material changes in the structure of the markets, client demand or the competitive environment.
Estimates and judgements
In preparation of the Profit Forecasts, the Group makes estimations and applies judgement that could affect the reported amount of assets and liabilities within the reporting period. Key areas in which judgement is applied include:
· Valuation of unlisted investments primarily in the private equity, direct investments portfolios and embedded derivatives. Key valuation inputs are based on the most relevant observable market inputs, adjusted where necessary for factors that specifically apply to the individual investments and recognising market volatility
· The determination of ECL against assets that are carried at amortised cost and ECL relating to debt instruments at fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) involves the assessment of future cash flows which is judgmental in nature
· On 1 August 2025, the Supreme Court of England and Wales' (the "Supreme Court") provided a judgment on the appeal against the Court of Appeal's decision in Wrench, Hopcraft and Johnson concerning the payment of finance commission by motor finance lenders to motor dealers acting as credit brokers. Whilst the judgment announced on 1 August provides additional clarity, there remain a number of uncertainties. The FCA announced that it will publish a consultation on an industry wide redress scheme by early October 2025. Following the initial assessment of the Supreme Court judgment and pending resolution of the outstanding uncertainties, in particular the FCA redress scheme. Investec believes that the current provision of £30 million remains adequate. The provision will continue to be reviewed as and when further information becomes available.
· Valuation of investment properties is performed by capitalising the budgeted net income of the property at the market related yield applicable at the time
· The Group's income tax charge and balance sheet provision are judgmental in nature. This arises from certain transactions for which the ultimate tax treatment can only be determined by final resolution with the relevant local tax authorities. The Group recognises in its tax provision certain amounts in respect of taxation that involve a degree of estimation and uncertainty where the tax treatment cannot finally be determined until a resolution has been reached by the relevant tax authority. The carrying amount of this provision is often dependent on the timetable and progress of discussions and negotiations with the relevant tax authorities, arbitration processes and legal proceedings in the relevant tax jurisdictions in which the Group operates. Issues can take many years to resolve and assumptions on the likely outcome would therefore have to be made by the Group
· Where appropriate, the Group has utilised expert external advice as well as experience of similar situations elsewhere in making any such provisions
· Determination of interest income and interest expense using the effective interest rate method involves judgement in determining the timing and extent of future cash flows.
About Investec
Investec partners with private, institutional, and corporate clients, offering international banking, investments, and wealth management services in two principal markets, South Africa and the UK. The Group was established in 1974 and currently has c.8,000 employees. Investec has a dual listed company structure with primary listings on the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges.
Johannesburg and London
JSE Equity and Debt Sponsor: Investec Bank Limited
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