FY26 Pre-Close Trading Update
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Investec Limited JSE hybrid code: INPR JSE debt code: INLV NSX share code: IVD BSE share code: INVESTEC ISIN: ZAE000081949 LEI: 213800CU7SM6O4UWOZ70 |
Investec plc JSE share code: INP LEI: 2138007Z3U5GWDN3MY22 |
Investec Group pre-close trading update
19 March 2026
Investec Group today announces its scheduled pre-close trading update for the year ending 31 March 2026 (FY2026). An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 11:00 South African time. Please register for the call at www.investec.com/investorrelations.
Commentary on the Group's financial performance in this pre-close trading update represents the eleven months ended 28 February 2026 and compares forecast FY2026 to FY2025 (31 March 2025).
FY2026 earnings update and guidance
The Group is expected to deliver a resilient performance, reflecting the strength of our client franchises and diversified revenue streams.
We are making progress on the strategic growth agenda outlined in May 2025. The investment in our Corporate mid‑market, Private Client segments and the ongoing modernisation of our operating and digital platforms is on track.
As part of our capital management, the Group's R2.5 billion / c.£110 million share buy-back programme announced in May 2025 is complete.
Our strong capital generation has enabled us to continue supporting our clients in an uncertain and evolving environment.
For the year ending 31 March 2026, the Group expects:
· Adjusted earnings per share of 81.6p to 84.0p (FY2025: 79.1p) or 3% to 6% ahead of prior year
· Headline earnings per share of 72.6p to 74.1p (FY2025: 72.6p) or flat to 2% ahead of prior year
· Basic earnings per share of 76.9p to 79.2p (FY2025: 72.8p) or 6% to 9% ahead of prior year
· Pre-provision adjusted operating profit to be between £1 066.9 million and £1 092.5 million (FY2025: £1 039.2 million) or between 3% and 5% ahead of prior year
· Credit loss ratio to be within the through-the-cycle (TTC) range of 25bps to 45bps. The overall credit quality remains solid
· Cost to income ratio to be between 52% and 54%, in line with guidance
· Adjusted operating profit before tax to be between £940.3 million and £965.9 million
(FY2025: £920.0 million)
o The Southern African business adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least 4% ahead of the prior year in Rands (FY2025: R 10 775 million, £463.0 million). The Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least 5% ahead of prior year in Rands (FY2025: R9 976 million, £428.7 million). The credit loss ratio is expected to be around the lower end of the TTC range of 15bps to 35bps. The Southern African business ROE is expected to be around 18.0%, within the 16% to 20% medium-term target range. The Investec Limited CET1 ratio at 31 December 2025 was 14.2%1 (31 March 2025: 14.8%)
o The UK business, including our interest in Rathbones, adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least in line with the prior year (FY2025: £457.0 million). The UK Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be between 1.0% and 5.0% behind the prior year (FY2025: £410.4 million). We expect to report a credit loss ratio around the upper end of the previously guided range of 50bps to 60bps. The UK business ROTE is expected to be between 13.3% and 13.7%, within the medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. The Investec plc CET1 ratio at 31 December 2025 was 12.3%2 (31 March 2025: 12.6%3)
· Group ROE to be between 13.3% and 13.7%, within our medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. Group ROTE is expected to be between 15% and 16%, within the 14% to 18% medium-term range. We remain committed to advancing returns towards the upper end of our medium‑term target range by FY2030.
The year-to-date performance that formed the basis for the guidance provided above is summarised below:
· Revenue growth was supported by increased activity levels, higher average advances, and positive net inflows in discretionary and annuity funds under management (FUM). This was counterbalanced by the negative impact of lower average interest rates
o Net interest income reflects growth in average lending books, and success in our strategic execution to optimise the funding mix in Southern Africa. This was offset by the endowment effect of declining global interest rates and margin compression from competitive pricing
o Non-interest Revenue (NIR) growth was underpinned by strong fee generation from our Banking businesses in both geographies, as well as higher annuity fees from our SA Wealth & Investment business. Increased client hedging activity in response to global market volatility supported customer‑flow trading income in both geographies. The Group's share of Rathbones post-tax underlying profit attributable to shareholders increased year on year
· Fixed operating expenditure growth reflected continued investment in people and technology particularly in building and modernising transactional banking capabilities, as well as driving strategic and regulatory projects to enhance business resilience and support growth. Variable remuneration was in line with underlying business performance.
1 Investec Limited is predominately on the advanced approach for credit and market risk. Investec Limited's capital information includes unappropriated profits. If unappropriated profits are excluded from capital information, Investec Limited's CET1 ratio would be 162bps (121bps) lower.
2 Investec plc reports capital ratios measured on a Standardised capital measurement approach. Investec plc's December 2025 CET1 ratio excludes quarterly profits and associated foreseeable charges and dividends for the period 1 October 2025 to 31 December 2025. In accordance with the Prudential Regulation Authority rules, quarterly profits may only be included in a firm's capital position once the profits have been independently verified by an external audit firm.
3Investec plc's March 2025 capital disclosures follow Investec's normal basis of presentation and do not include the deduction of foreseeable charges and dividends when calculating the CET1 ratio as required under the Capital Requirements Regulation.
For the eleven-month period ended 28 February 2026:
· Within Specialist Banking, core loans increased by 7.4% annualised in neutral currency and by 13.3% annualised in reported currency to £36.3 billion (31 March 2025: £32.4 billion) benefitting from the 9.5% appreciation of the Rand to Pound sterling compared to 31 March 2025. Growth was seen across the private client lending books and corporate lending books in both geographies
· Customer deposits increased by 5.7% annualised in neutral currency and by 11.5% annualised in reported currency to £45.5 billion
· FUM in our Southern African Wealth business increased by 26.7% since 31 March 2025 to £29.6 billion at
28 February 2026 (31 March 2025: £23.4 billion). Strong net inflows in our discretionary and annuity funds of R22.8 billion (£979 million) were supplemented by R6.4 billion (£276 million) additional FUM from a strategic acquisition by our Swiss operations in September 2025. This was partly offset by non-discretionary outflows of R8.2 billion (£353 million)
Investec's associate, Rathbones reported funds under management and administration (FUMA) of
£115.6 billion as at 31 December 2025 (31 December 2024: £109.2 billion).
The Group has robust capital and liquidity levels to deliver on our clear and executable strategy to enhance
long-term shareholder returns. We are focused on growing market share, deepening client relationships and driving incremental returns, while maintaining cost discipline and capital efficiency.
Other information
The financial information on which this trading update is based, has not been reviewed and reported on by the external auditors.
An investor conference call will be held today at 09:00 UK time / 11:00 South African time. Please REGISTER HERE for the call.
Year end results and Business update
The year end results for the year ending 31 March 2026 are scheduled for release on Thursday, 21 May 2026. Following the results presentation, the Group will provide an update on our Private Client growth initiatives.
Webcast details will be provided in due course.
On behalf of the board
Philip Hourquebie (Chair), Fani Titi (Group Chief Executive)
For further information please contact:
Investec Investor Relations
General enquiries: investorrelations@investec.co.za
Results:
Qaqambile Dwayi
SA Tel: +27 (0)83 457 2134
Brunswick (SA PR advisers)
Tim Schultz Tel: +27 (0)82 309 2496
Lansons (UK PR advisers)
Tom Baldock Tel: +44 (0)78 6010 1715
About Investec
Investec Group is a leading international bank and wealth manager, with a regional focus in Southern Africa and the United Kingdom, complemented by a strategic presence in Continental Europe, Channel Islands, Dubai, India, Mauritius, Switzerland, and the United States.
Investec partners with private, corporate, and institutional clients, and delivers tailored solutions with exceptional service in the areas of private banking and wealth management, and corporate and investment banking. Investec is driven by its purpose to create enduring worth for all its stakeholders.
The Group was established in 1974 and currently has approximately 8,000 employees. Investec has a dual-listed company structure with primary listings on the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges.
Johannesburg and London
JSE Equity and Debt Sponsor: Investec Bank Limited
Key income drivers
Core loans
|
£'m |
28-Feb-26 |
31- Mar-25 |
Annualised % change |
Annualised Neutral currency |
|
UK and Other |
17,704 |
16,814 |
5.8% |
5.8% |
|
South Africa |
18,634 |
15,573 |
21.4% |
9.1% |
|
Total |
36,338 |
32,387 |
13.3% |
7.4% |
Customer deposits
|
£'m |
28-Feb-26 |
31- Mar-25 |
Annualised % change |
Annualised Neutral currency |
|
UK and Other |
22,392 |
21,449 |
4.8% |
4.8% |
|
South Africa |
23,100 |
19,715 |
18.7% |
6.6% |
|
Total |
45,492 |
41,164 |
11.5% |
5.7% |
|
Funds under Management (FUM) |
|
|
|
|
|
£'m |
28-Feb-26 |
31-Mar-25 |
% change |
Neutral currency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wealth & Investment - Southern Africa |
29,618 |
23,385 |
26.7% |
16.0% |
|
Discretionary |
17,724 |
13,944 |
27.1% |
16.1% |
|
Non-discretionary |
11,894 |
9,441 |
26.0%% |
16.0% |
|
Rathbones Group plc* |
115,617 |
104,052 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Totals and variances are presented in £'millions which may result in rounding differences
* The balance of £115.6bn reflects total FUMA as reported at 31 December 2025 by Investec's associate, Rathbones.
Notes
1. Definitions
· Adjusted operating profit refers to profit before tax of continuing operations, adjusted to remove goodwill, acquired intangibles and strategic actions, including such items within equity accounted earnings, and non-controlling interests. Non-IFRS measures such as adjusted operating profit are considered as pro-forma financial information as per the JSE Listings Requirements. The pro-forma financial information is the responsibility of the Group's Board of Directors. Pro-forma financial information was prepared for illustrative purposes and because of its nature may not fairly present the issuer's financial position, changes in equity or results of operations. This pro-forma financial information has not been reported on by the Group's external auditors
· Adjusted earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders is calculated as earnings attributable to shareholders adjusted to remove goodwill, acquired intangible assets, strategic actions, including such items within equity accounted earnings, and earnings attributable to perpetual preference shareholders and Other additional tier 1 security holders
· Adjusted earnings per share is calculated as adjusted earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders divided by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year
· Headline earnings is an earnings measure required to be calculated and disclosed by the JSE and is calculated in accordance with the guidance provided by The South African Institute of Chartered Accountants in Circular 1/2023
· Headline earnings per share (HEPS) is calculated as headline earnings divided by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year.
· Basic earnings is earnings attributable to ordinary shareholders as defined by IAS33 Earnings Per Share
· Core loans is defined as net loans to customers plus net own originated securitised assets
· The credit loss ratio is calculated as expected credit loss (ECL) impairment charges on gross core loans as a percentage of average gross core loans subject to ECL.
2. Exchange rates
The Group's reporting currency is Pounds Sterling. Certain of the Group's operations are conducted by entities outside the UK. The results of operations and the financial condition of these individual companies are reported in the local currencies in which they are domiciled, including Rands, Australian Dollars, Euros and US Dollars. These results are then translated into Pounds Sterling at the applicable foreign currency exchange rates for inclusion in the Group's combined consolidated financial statements. In the case of the income statement, the weighted average rate for the relevant period is applied and, in the case of the balance sheet, the relevant closing rate is used. The following table sets out the movements in certain relevant exchange rates against the Pound Sterling over the period:
|
|
Eleven months to 28 February 2026 |
Year ended 31 March 2025 |
||
|
Currency per GBP1.00 |
Period end |
Average |
Period end |
Average |
|
South African Rand |
21.49 |
23.33 |
23.74 |
23.25 |
|
Euro |
1.14 |
1.16 |
1.20 |
1.19 |
|
US Dollar |
1.35 |
1.34 |
1.29 |
1.28 |
3. Profit forecasts
· The following matters highlighted in this announcement contain forward-looking statements:
§ Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be between 81.6p and 84.0p which ahead of FY25
§ Headline earnings per share is expected to be between 72.6p and 74.1p which is flat to c.2% ahead of FY25
§ Basic EPS is expected to be between 76.9p and 79.2p which is ahead of FY25
§ Pre-provision adjusted operating profit is expected to be between £1 066.9 million and £1 092.5 million
§ Adjusted operating profit is expected to be between £940.3 million and £965.9 million
§ The UK business' (including our interest in Rathbones) adjusted operating profit to be at least in line with the prior year. The UK Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be 1% to 5% behind the prior year. The UK business ROTE is expected to be between 13.3% and c.13.7%, within the medium-term target range of 13% to 17%
§ The Southern African business adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least 4% ahead of the prior year in Rands. The Southern African Specialist Bank adjusted operating profit is expected to be at least 5% ahead of prior year in Rands. SA business ROE is expected to be around 18.0% within the 16% to 20% medium-term target range
§ Group ROE is expected to be between 13.3% and 13.7%, within the Group's medium-term target range of 13% to 17%.
(collectively the Profit Forecasts)
· The basis of preparation of each of these statements and the assumptions upon which they are based are set out below. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and other factors - which may cause the Group's actual future results, performance or achievements in the markets in which it operates to differ from those expressed in the Profit Forecasts
· Global uncertainty is currently heightened. Our guidance is based on current conditions, further escalation in the Middle East could impact key macroeconomic assumptions, including sentiment, trade, inflation, interest rate expectations and growth
· Any forward-looking statements made are based on the knowledge of the Group at 19 March 2026
· These forward-looking statements represent a profit forecast under the Listing Rules. The Profit Forecasts relate to the year ending 31 March 2026
The financial information on which the Profit Forecasts are based is the responsibility of the Directors of the Group and has not been reviewed and reported on by the Group's auditors.
Basis of preparation
· The Profit Forecasts have been compiled using the assumptions stated below, and on a basis consistent with the accounting policies adopted in the Group's March 2025 audited financial statements, which are in accordance with IFRS and are those which the Group anticipates will be applicable for the year ending 31 March 2026.
· The Profit Forecasts have been prepared based on (a) audited financial statements of the Group for the year ended 31 March 2025, and the results of the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses underlying those audited financial statements; (b) the unaudited management accounts of the Group and the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses for the eleven months to 28 February 2026; and (c) the projected financial performance of the Group and the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses for the remaining one month of the year ending 31 March 2026.
· Percentage changes shown on a neutral currency basis for balance sheet items assume that the relevant closing exchange rates at 28 February 2026 remain the same as those at 31 March 2025. This neutral currency information has not been reported on by the Group's auditors.
Assumptions
The Profit Forecasts have been prepared on the basis of the following assumptions during the forecast period:
Factors outside the influence or control of the Investec Board:
· There will be no material change in the political and/or economic environment that would materially affect the Investec Group
· There will be no material change in legislation or regulation impacting on the Investec Group's operations or its accounting policies
· There will be no business disruption that will have a significant impact on the Investec Group's operations
· The Rand/Pound Sterling and US Dollar/Pound Sterling exchange rates remain materially unchanged from the prevailing rates detailed above
· The tax rates remain materially unchanged
· There will be no material changes in the structure of the markets, client demand or the competitive environment.
Estimates and judgements
In preparation of the Profit Forecasts, the Group makes estimations and applies judgement that could affect the reported amount of assets and liabilities within the reporting period. Key areas in which judgement is applied include:
· Valuation of unlisted investments primarily in the private equity, direct investments portfolios and embedded derivatives. Key valuation inputs are based on the most relevant observable market inputs, adjusted where necessary for factors that specifically apply to the individual investments and recognising market volatility
· The determination of ECL against assets that are carried at amortised cost and ECL relating to debt instruments at fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) involves the assessment of future cash flows which is judgmental in nature
· The Investec Group notes the FCA announcement and consultation paper on an industry wide redress scheme for motor finance published on 7 October 2025, following the Supreme Court judgment handed down on 1 August 2025. As previously stated, in establishing our existing provision the Group created a range of scenarios to address uncertainties on a number of key inputs, including regulatory responses and outcomes in relation to redress. The FCA consultation paper provided further detail on its proposed redress approach, in particular the products in scope, situations where it considers inadequate disclosure would give rise to an unfair relationship, proposed redress methodology, engagement approach and time bar. Based on the FCA consultation in its current form the Group has concluded that the existing £30 million provision, including both redress and operational costs, remains appropriate based on information currently available. This represents the Group's best estimate of the potential impact of this matter. The current FCA proposals remain under consultation and we await the final redress scheme rules, which the FCA has stated it expects to publish in late March 2026. The redress exposure is still uncertain, subject to variability arising from any changes made by the FCA in the final scheme rules, customer take-up rates and the potential impact these may have on operational costs. Investec commenced lending into the UK Motor Vehicle Finance market in June 2015 and motor finance gross core loans amounted to £11 million at 31 March 2016.
· Valuation of investment properties is performed by capitalising the budgeted net income of the property at the market related yield applicable at the time
· The Group's income tax charge and balance sheet provision are judgmental in nature. This arises from certain transactions for which the ultimate tax treatment can only be determined by final resolution with the relevant local tax authorities. The Group recognises in its tax provision certain amounts in respect of taxation that involve a degree of estimation and uncertainty where the tax treatment cannot finally be determined until a resolution has been reached by the relevant tax authority. The carrying amount of this provision is often dependent on the timetable and progress of discussions and negotiations with the relevant tax authorities, arbitration processes and legal proceedings in the relevant tax jurisdictions in which the Group operates. Issues can take many years to resolve and assumptions on the likely outcome would therefore have to be made by the Group
· Where appropriate, the Group has utilised expert external advice as well as experience of similar situations elsewhere in making any such provisions
· Determination of interest income and interest expense using the effective interest rate method involves judgement in determining the timing and extent of future cash flows.
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