Jansen Project Update

BHP Group Limited

18 June 2026

 

BHP

Exchange release                                                 

18 June 2026

Update - Jansen Potash Project

BHP has completed a detailed review of cost and schedule estimates for Stage 2 of the Jansen potash project (Jansen Stage 2) and confirms that the total investment¹ estimate for Jansen Stage 2 will increase from US$4.9 billion to US$6.9 billion (including contingencies) with first production estimated in late FY2031.  Jansen Stage 2 was approved in October 2023 with an investment cost estimate of US$4.9 billion. In August 2025, BHP announced a two-year extension of Jansen Stage 2, shifting first production from FY2029 to FY2031 and confirmed that it expected to update the market on Jansen Stage 2 optimised capital expenditure estimate in H2 FY2026.  

The two-year extension has enabled BHP to undertake a detailed review of project delivery and cost and schedule estimates and to implement a response plan to address cost and schedule pressures. The majority of the cost increase for Jansen Stage 2 is from additional construction hours and quantities of materials to complete Jansen Stage 2 and escalation, identified as part of the comprehensive review.

During the review, key underground construction activities and engineering continued to progress. At the end of May 2026, Jansen Stage 2 is 16% complete with engineering at 83% complete, de-risking the estimate for remaining work.

BHP continues to expect Jansen Stage 2 to deliver approximately 4.36 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of production. Following an expected two-year ramp-up period from first production, combined output from Jansen is expected to be 8.5Mtpa and will deliver approximately 10% of total global potash production.

At consensus prices², Jansen Stage 2 has an updated internal rate of return of 11% and expected payback period of 8 years. Underlying EBITDA margins for Jansen Stage 2 remain above 65% due to its low cost position.

Once Jansen Stage 2 ramps up, we continue to expect that the combined Jansen mine will be the lowest unit cost Canadian potash mine at US$114-130/t³ in line with unit cost estimates at sanction, reinforcing Jansen's durable competitive advantage in the potash market and further supporting BHP's long-term growth strategy in future facing commodities.

Jansen Stage 1 is achieving its critical path milestones set in the updated January 2026 cost and schedule estimate, and first production remains on track for mid CY2027.

BHP expects its Group capital expenditure guidance for FY2027 to remain at approximately US$11B.

As part of the preparation of our 2026 financial results, we are undertaking our assessment of the carrying value of the Group's aggregate Jansen asset base as at 30 June 2026. While remaining subject to confirmation of the carrying value at 30 June 2026, higher forecast capital intensity has reduced the value we would expect a market participant to attribute to the Jansen Project, inclusive of the potential future expansions beyond Stage 2. Given higher forecast capital intensity for the Jansen project (including Stages 1 and 2 and potential future expansions), we currently expect to recognise an impairment charge of approximately US$2.3 billion (before and after tax) in relation to our investment to date in the Jansen project.

BHP President Americas and CEO-elect, Brandon Craig said:

"BHP continues to invest in its long-term growth strategy. Jansen is an important pillar of BHP's strategy and will deliver exposure to a future facing commodity with strong demand fundamentals and portfolio diversification benefits. With the reset of Jansen Stage 2, we are progressing with our intention of building a Tier 1 asset. The combined Jansen Stage 1 and 2 will be a low cost, long life asset with almost 60 year mine life and is expected to generate benefits for shareholders for decades. Once operational, Jansen will establish BHP as a leading player in the global potash industry."

The Minerals Resources and Ore Reserves Statement for the Jansen Project has been submitted to the FCA National Storage Mechanism and is available for inspection at: https://data.fca.org.uk/#/nsm/nationalstoragemechanism.

Footnotes

1.   Investment expenditure includes: project capital expenditure, project operating expenditure, cost to construct right-of-use assets (i.e. Westshore port terminal and 3^rd party rail line) and related contingencies.

2.   Commodity Price assumptions reflect the average of CRU and Argus forecasts. Jansen Stage 2's updated internal rate of return (IRR) is post-tax and nominal, based on these consensus prices (FY31-FY41 average of US$330/t, FOB Vancouver, real 1 July 2026). The updated IRR represents the expected return on JS2 cash flows incorporating the revised investment cost of US$6.9B.

3.   Operational expenditure includes costs relating to the Jansen mine, port and rail. Excludes carbon tax, royalties, and sustaining capital. Unit cost is valued at 1 July 2026 (real) and is the equivalent to the previously disclosed range of US$105-120/t (real 1 July 2023).

Authorised for release by Stefanie Wilkinson, Group General Counsel and Group Company Secretary.

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