Monthly Report
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
15 August 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American benchmark was up 7.5% in July, outperforming the S&P and Dow
Jones Indices but underperforming the Nasdaq and some of their emerging market
peers. Year to date Latin America continues to outperform both its emerging
market peers and the U.S. markets. Within Latin America, Chile, Brazil and
Mexico were the strongest performers in July, up 10.5%, 8.1%, and 7.1%
respectively. Argentina fell for the month, down 2.4% in GBP. By sector, July
performance was led by materials and consumer discretionary with consumer
staples declining. Most Latin American currencies depreciated against sterling
for the month with the exception of the Mexican and Chilean pesos which were up
1.3 and 1.7% respectively. Although the Brazilian real and Argentine Peso were
off against sterling, they remain the strongest performers to date.
A large number of Latin American companies released second quarter earnings in
July. The reporting season is nearly over in Mexico and most of the companies
owned in the portfolio posted strong results, with the exception of Telmex. In
Brazil, results are beginning to come in and have generally been in line or
slightly weaker than expectations given the continued softness in the economy.
The Trust was slightly behind the index for the month, with the NAV up 6.2%.
Again, the country allocation was positive however stock selection, particularly
in Brazil was off for the month. Some of the biggest detractors included the
Brazilian wireline companies and Ambev, based on weaker results, and Telmex in
Mexico. For the year to date, the NAV for the Trust is up 24.7% versus the index
of 27.4%.
Brazil
The Brazilian MSCI rose over 8% for the month despite the currency weakening
1.5% against sterling. News of continued progress on the reform front, a cut in
the Copom rate and moderate inflation figures helped spur the market ahead. The
government managed to have the Social Security and Bankruptcy Law reforms
approved in a special committee for the chamber of deputies and the senate. We
now think it may be possible to have this reform passed in Congress by the end
of October or November. Industrial production figures remain weak, with May
numbers coming in only slightly ahead of a year ago. We do not expect any
substantial recovery until at least the fourth quarter this year, as consistent
cuts in the interest rate kick in to improve consumer and business sentiment.
Retail sales have remained sluggish, a reflection of the decline in real income,
deterioration of the labour market and lack of consumer credit. Finally,
President Lula's popularity slipped in July however he still commands a
favourable rating by 78% of those polled.
Mexico
The Mexican market gained over 7% in sterling, helped by better U.S. economic
data and supportive global markets, despite the disappointing congressional
election results earlier in the month. The currency strengthened against
sterling, as domestic interest rates stayed low and economic activity data
remains sluggish. The Central Bank reduced its 2003 GDP estimate to 2%, the
second time this year. The trade deficit continues to improve driven primarily
by higher oil exports, as the manufacturing exports continue to be lacklustre.
May retail sales were up slightly, the fifth consecutive month of rises however
the fall in industrial production figures (again) signals that economic activity
remains weak. After the moderately successful election results by the PRI, they
appear more willing to move forward on fiscal reform. President Fox's PAN was
the clear loser in the July 6 ballot, which ended up with fewer deputies than in
the previous Congress. The PRD also came out ahead, doubling its number of
deputies. Ongoing corporate results, economic activity data (both in the U.S.
and in Mexico) and any structural reform progress remain the key issues for
August.
On the corporate side, while Telmex's bottom line results were weaker than
expected, they continue to post strong EBITDA margins signalling a commitment to
profitability. America Movil results surprised on the upside with very strong
top line growth. Other large cap stocks which came in with better than expected
news included Televisa, Bancomer, Cemex and Walmex, all of which are owned in
the portfolio.
Chile
The Chilean MSCI greatly outperformed the regional index for the month, up 10.5%
in sterling terms. The portfolio continues to be underweight the index, at 3.5%
versus 10.3% however our stock selection was positive for the month with solid
gains by the names held. The Chilean peso strengthened again for the month, up
1.8 as copper prices rose and domestic economic activity was relatively robust.
The Central Bank held rates unchanged as inflation remained tame. We continue to
search for selective investment opportunities in this market of low liquidity,
however remain mindful of balance sheet issues for selective companies
(particularly utilities).
Argentina
The Argentine MSCI fell for the month, down 2.4% as the deceleration of the
economy continues to be felt. In addition, the effects of the capital controls
imposed in June also contributed to the market's weakness. The currency declined
versus sterling and domestic interest rates stayed relatively low. Discussions
began with the IMF on a new program. Corporate results and the ongoing IMF
negotiations will dominate headlines for August. We remain uninvested in this
market at present.
Venezuela /Peru
The Venezuelan market underperformed the index on concerns over potential
changes in the foreign exchange regime. The government made some economic
progress, with the announced debt swap proposals, but little political progress
with no date for the referendum on Chavez's regime. We have no exposure to this
market.
The Peruvian market rose nearly 9% in sterling in July as positive commodity
prices offset ongoing political noise, with changes at the Central Bank and
Ministry of Finance. President Toledo's popularity remains weak and the economy
is now showing signs of deceleration. Despite this, the portfolio's sole holding
in Peru, the gold company Buenaventura, was a stand out contributor to
performance for the month.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/07/03 30/06/03 31/07/03 30/06/03
70.7p 66.6p 76.9p 73.7p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/07/03 30/06/03
Ordinary Shares 58.50p 55.75p
Warrants 10.00p 9.75p
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £33.8 million (£31.8 million).
Market exposure
31/07/03 30/06/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 47.4 45.8
Chile 3.5 3.5
Mexico 47.7 47.8
Peru 2.0 1.8
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 100.6 98.9
Net Current Assets (0.6) 1.1
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of £36.9 million (£34.9 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/07/03 30/06/03
9.2% 9.5%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £36.8 million equal to 99.1% of total
portfolio)
Country £000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,702 12.7
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,388 9.1
Telmex Mexico 3,321 8.9
Ambev Brazil 2,152 5.8
Grupo Televisa Mexico 2,025 5.5
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,003 5.4
America Movil Mexico 2,001 5.4
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,963 5.3
Cemex Mexico 1,878 5.1
Banco Itau Brazil 1,876 5.1
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,620 4.3
Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,246 3.3
Femsa Mexico 1,103 3.0
Bco Bradesco Brazil 929 2.4
Grupo Modelo Mexico 844 2.3
Gerdau Brazil 836 2.3
Telecom de Chile Chile 788 2.1
Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 766 2.1
Minas Buenaventura Peru 724 2.0
Pao de Acucar Brazil 654 1.8
Sider Nacional Brazil 593 1.6
Bco Santander Chile 494 1.3
Telesp Celular Brazil 328 0.9
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 310 0.8
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 245 0.6
Financial Calendar
Half-year 31 August 2003
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange