TotalEnergies SE: Fourth Quarter 2025: Main Indicators
Summary by AI BETAClose X
Regulatory News:
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) fourth quarter 2025 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators |
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|
|
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
2025 |
4Q24 |
2024 |
€/$ |
|
1.16 |
1.17 |
1.13 |
1.07 |
1.08 |
Brent |
($/b) |
63.7 |
69.1 |
69.1 |
74.7 |
80.8 |
Average liquids price * (1) |
($/b) |
61.4 |
66.5 |
66.2 |
71.8 |
77.1 |
Average gas price * (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
5.11 |
5.50 |
5.72 |
6.26 |
5.54 |
Average LNG price ** (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
8.48 |
8.91 |
9.14 |
10.37 |
9.80 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** |
($/t) |
85.7 |
63.0 |
53.4 |
25.9 |
39.5 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** |
($/b) |
11.4 |
8.4 |
7.1 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates. |
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** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates. |
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*** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/t and $/b), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies. |
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(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively. |
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Main elements impacting the fourth quarter aggregates
- Once again, despite a year‑on‑year decline of more than $10/b in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results in the fourth quarter.
- Fourth‑quarter 2025 oil and gas production growth is expected to be at nearly 5% year‑on‑year, leading to close to 4% growth for the full year 2025, exceeding the guidance of more than 3%.
- Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect the decrease in the average liquids and gas sales prices quarter to quarter, in line with published sensitivities. Year‑on‑year, Exploration & Production cash flow benefits from accretive production growth, limiting the impact of the decrease to around $6/b out of the $11/b drop.
- Integrated LNG is expected to deliver a result and cash flow in line with the third quarter of 2025, supported by higher LNG production (end of turnaround at Ichthys LNG) and sales offsetting a 5% decrease in the average LNG price.
- Integrated Power cash flow is expected to increase, supported by the farm‑downs completed in the fourth quarter, enabling the segment to reach more than $2.5 billion in annual cash flow, in line with the full‑year guidance.
- Refining & Chemicals results and cash flow are expected to increase strongly with the good operational performance of the units enabling the capture of the increase of more than 30% of the margins.
- Marketing & Services results and cash flow are expected to be broadly in line with the previous quarter.
- Net investments for 2025 are expected to be close to $17 billion, benefiting from more than $2 billion in divestments in the fourth quarter.
- A release of more than $3 billion in working capital is anticipated over the quarter, leading to a gearing ratio which should be around 15% at year-end 2025.
2025 Sensitivities* |
|
||
|
Change |
Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income |
Estimated impact on cash flow from operations |
Dollar |
+/- 0.1 $ per € |
-/+ 0.1 B$ |
~0 B$ |
Average liquids price ** |
+/- 10 $/b |
+/- 2.3 B$ |
+/- 2.8 B$ |
European gas price – TTF |
+/- 2 $/Mbtu |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
+/- 1 $/b |
+/- 0.3 B$ |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2025. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals. |
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** In a 70-80 $/b Brent environment. |
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Unit change for the “European Refining Margin Indicator” (ERM)
From 4Q25 results, the “European Refining Margin Indicator” (ERM) will be reported in $/b to better reflect the integration of refining in the energy value chain. The basket of crude oils, product yields and variable costs representative of the refining system remains unchanged. The conversion factor is 7.5 b/t.
Corresponding 2025 data is provided below to reflect this change:
|
|
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
2Q25 |
1Q25 |
4Q24 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
($/t) |
85.7 |
63.0 |
35.3 |
29.4 |
25.9 |
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
($/b) |
11.4 |
8.4 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of 2025 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “will”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “may”, “likely”, “might”, “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “commits”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, technological innovations, meteorological conditions and events, as well as socio-demographic, economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Readers are cautioned not to consider forward-looking statements as accurate, but as an expression of the Company’s views only as of the date this document is published. TotalEnergies SE and its subsidiaries have no obligation, make no commitment and expressly disclaim any responsibility to investors or any stakeholder to update or revise, particularly as a result of new information or future events, any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document. In addition, the Company has not verified and is under no obligation to verify any third-party data contained in this document or used in the estimates and assumptions or, more generally, forward-looking statements published in this document.
The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Additionally, the developments of climate change and other environmental-or social related issues in this document are based on various frameworks and the interests of various stakeholders which are subject to evolve independently of our will. Moreover, our disclosures on such issues, including disclosures on climate change and other environmental or social-related issues, may include information that is not necessarily "material" under US securities laws for SEC reporting purposes or under applicable securities law.
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items described below (adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income), return on equity (ROE), return on average capital employed (ROACE), gearing ratio, operating cash flow before working capital changes, the shareholder rate of return. These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted operating income, adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
Euro amounts presented for the fully adjusted-diluted earnings per share represent dollar amounts converted at the average euro-dollar (€-$) exchange rate for the applicable period and are not the result of financial statements prepared in euros.
Cautionary Note to US Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to separately disclose proved, probable and possible reserves that a company has determined in accordance with SEC rules. We may use certain terms in this document, such as “potential reserves” or “resources”, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. US investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in the Form 20-F of TotalEnergies SE, File N° 1-10888, available from us at 2, place Jean Millier – Arche Nord Coupole/Regnault – 92078 Paris-La Défense Cedex, France, or at the Company website totalenergies.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or on the SEC’s website sec.gov.
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