Final Results

Aurora Investment Trust plc PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS For the year ended 28 February 2005 CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT The Year's Results: NAV: +23.4% to 229.1p; Benchmark: +11.2% I am pleased to be able to report to shareholders an excellent result for the year ended 28 February 2005. The net asset value rose from 185.6p to 229.1p per share, an increase of 23.4%. Given that our stated goal for shareholders is the growth of capital, it is a thoroughly acceptable result and our thanks and congratulations go to James Barstow and his colleagues for it. Making money for shareholders has got to be the purpose of our endeavours, for who would be happy to invest in any share and lose money just because the share in question did better than an index? It is a preposterous idea and yet it pervades so much professional fund management. Investors become shareholders not only because they expect to make a profit but also because they expect Aurora to do better than other investment trusts and also better than the market generally. In this respect these results were better than all but two of the seventeen trusts in the Association of Investment Trust Companies' UK Growth Sector. Furthermore the performance of the stock market generally, as measured by the FTSE All-Share Index - which covers the share price performance of about the 1,000 largest companies - rose by 11.2%, a perfectly acceptable return but a lot less than James' 23.4% for shareholders. So this year at least the primary and secondary aims have also been achieved. The investment income earned from the Company's portfolio this year is circa £100,000 lower that last year and the Group net income is down from £741,000 to £562,000. Nevertheless there is enough income to increase the dividend again - another of our aims - and the Board is recommending to shareholders a dividend of 2.9p per share, against one of 2.85p per share last year. An attribution analysis of the year's results shows - in approximate terms - the following: Net Asset Value (beginning year) 185.65p per share Effect of the Stock Market + 11.2% + 20.79p per share Effect of Stock Selection + 8.9% + 16.43p per share Effect of Gearing + 3.3% + 6.22p per share Net Asset Value (end yr) + 23.4% 229.09p per share But for the good stock selection and the gearing, the net asset value would have ended the year at approximately 206.5p per share. The main reason for the excellent stock selection came from the portfolio's exposure to Ireland. Of the increase in the net asset value of circa 43.44p per share, the Irish portfolio of stocks added circa 30p per share; James's report to shareholders, which follows this, expounds on the favourable economic position that Ireland finds itself in - in part because of some of the absurdities of the European Union and its Euro and in part because it has been intelligently governed in the last several years. Despite the adverse publicity surrounding housing companies our exposure to Persimmon, Abbey and McCarthy & Stone added circa 12p per share to our net asset value. There were inevitably poor performers with BTG (- 4.25p per share) and Gresham Computing (- 2.25p per share) being the worst two; James comments on them too. Top 5 Contributors Addition to Bottom 5 Detraction from NAV NAV Contributors per share Per share Gartmore Irish + 13.50p BTG Group - 4.25p Growth Anglo Irish Bank + 12.50p Gresham Computing - 2.50p Emblaze + 12.00p B Sky B - 1.00p Persimmon + 5.25p SVB - 1.00p Abbey + 3.50p Premier Farnell - 0.75p Long Term Returns: NAV: 5 Years: + 11.6% to 229.1p; Benchmark: - 20.2% Since launch: + 134.3% to 229.1p; Benchmark: + 1.7% The nature of James' approach to investing is essentially a long term one (of which more later); indeed the nature of successful investing is long term. Share prices are volatile; they are affected by economic cycles and the effect that they have on corporate profits and dividends. In recent years that volatility has been exaggerated by the institutionalisation of the market with its volatility of expectations and the huge increase in the use of derivatives. It is certain that all but a few investors are unable to make successful short term bets (for that is what they are) on the direction of stocks generally or individually. It is for this reason that your Board of Directors does not look at the year's results when undertaking its annual evaluation of the Manager. This year's evaluation looked at the ability, experience, commitment and performance of all those individuals involved in the management of all of the Company's affairs - whether it be portfolio management or corporate administration - as well as the five year returns. Over the last five years the net asset value has risen by 11.6%, a good performance considering that the base date coincided with the top of the dot.com bubble; the FTSE All-Share Index, our benchmark, has fallen by 20.2% since then. It is our belief that it is because James takes a long term approach and because he is so committed to the success of the Company - he spends the majority of his time managing the portfolio and he has a large shareholding in its shares - that he has produced such good long term results. The Board's Policies concerning Gearing, Dividends and Investment in other Investment Trusts The Board of Directors has determined that borrowings under normal circumstances - that is when markets are not obviously very over or undervalued - should be around 20% of shareholders funds ("the gearing"). Our Articles of Association restrict us to gearing of no more than 25%; we wish to increase that to 30%, not because we wish to change our gearing policy but because we wish to have the flexibility not to have to sell shares when the market has fallen and thereby be selling at depressed prices. Following the recent changes to the Listing Rules, Investment Trusts must state their policy in relation to investing in the shares of other investment trusts and companies. We have adopted a policy restricting such investment to less than 15% of total assets. However it should be noted that we will use that 15% from time to time to obtain general portfolio exposure to areas where James does not have as much investment knowledge or experience as can be obtained through third party investment. Our commitment to Gartmore Irish Growth at the moment provides an example of this policy in action. Your Board of Directors is aware that there is an ever increasing requirement from investors for current income from their investments - be they equities, bonds or property. It stems from the ageing of the investor population, resulting in investors being much more yield conscious when deciding what shares to own. Our own dividend to shareholders in any one year will be determined by the income that the portfolio generated in that year. However we would expect the dividend to grow over the long term and at a rate at least as high as that of inflation. Annual General Meeting: at 12 pm on 29 June 2005 at 145-157 St John St., London, EC1 I do urge as many shareholders as possible to attend the Annual General Meeting, which will be held at 12 pm on 29 June 2005 at Cavendish Administration's offices at Crusader House 145-157 St John Street, London (Farringdon tube station). It is the one occasion in the year when shareholders can meet all of the Directors and ask questions or make comments or suggestions which we would welcome and which we feel that all shareholders should have the benefit of hearing. Please come and join us. Corporate Governance: Evaluation of Board's Governance During this past year we have undertaken our first evaluation of the Board of Directors' governance of the Company. We have not sought to tinker with our governance, conscious that it is an ongoing duty of the Directors to make improvements to its modus operandi at all times, not just once a year. However the annual evaluation of the Board's governance gives us a chance to think about how better governance can make a difference to the Company's results. We have therefore adopted a goals-based approach, asking ourselves how we as a board of directors could improve our governance in such a way as to make a material difference to the prospects of the Company. Our Investment Policy: Assessment of long term fundamentals and trends and making appropriate portfolio exposures. Ever since the Company was formed in 1997, James has laid out his understanding of the trends in social, economic and financial fundamentals. He has said that he believes that the extraordinary progress of technology, the consequences of competitive globalisation, the emergence of China as the prime manufacturing country in the world and the ageing of populations are all working to produce an era of disinflation turning into deflation. At some stage, much as it did in Japan after 1989, high levels of debt start to decline and they then become a fiercely deflationary force. In such a world companies find that they have little pricing power, making sales and profits growth difficult to achieve. Our policy has focussed on identifying some of those areas where he feels that companies do still have a chance to increase their profits without the threat of fierce price competition. Shareholders will be familiar with certain of his themes which include the peculiarities of the housing market in the UK, companies with growth prospects enhanced by exposure to the economy of China, Ireland benefiting from the idiocies of the European Union and the Euro with its one rule which doesn't fit-all interest rate policy, special technology companies with exceptional and unusual niches, companies benefiting from the greying societies and so on. All of these themes are long term trends and likely to be at work for many years. However, just as the rise in inflation in the years up to the early 1980s was punctuated with short periods when the rate of inflation declined, so the disinflationary and deflationary trends of our present era also have periods when inflation rates increase, as is possibly the case at the moment. These periods will be relatively short - in relation to the long term basic trend; their durations will be difficult to assess. At such times the shares in those areas in the stock market that benefit from inflation will do well while the deflation beneficiaries will suffer. Because James is a long term investor he does not try to make short term bets on countertrends, whose long term duration he doesn't believe in. It will therefore mean that there will be periods when the portfolio does not perform well, but as long as his fundamental assessments are right - and his boardroom colleagues believe they are - the valuations will always bounce back and then some. The last eight years, since the Company was launched, has seen this happen and we expect it to happen in the future; the last eight years have produced excellent returns, even if each and every quarter or year hasn't. Current Outlook and Prospects: As I mentioned above, it does look as if we are in a period of - I believe temporary - rising inflation. Interest rates have risen in the growth economies of the Anglo Saxon world and China, the very economies which are driving world growth. In the Anglo Saxon economies the economic driver is the consumer and in most cases a very indebted one; it seems unlikely that he/she can go on getting even more in debt and thus keep yesterday's growth rates going. In China, and some of its neighbouring economies, the economic driver has been capital investment, required to increase capacity to produce evermore consumer goods to supply to those Anglo Saxon consumers. It is a bit of a pressure pot and it is not surprising therefore that there should be a (temporary) rise in the rate of inflation. However the world's major central banks are independent of government (USA, Canada, UK, EU, Japan etc) and are likely to create tight enough money to quash inflation. The danger is that, unwittingly, they overdo it because it is difficult to judge just how far and how long to pursue such policies. Markets do not seem to be unduly concerned by fears of deflation but they are concerned about the USA's two deficits, about oil prices remaining high, about rising inflation and the consequent rising interest rates and thence about slowing economies. This probably explains why markets, which are not generally and obviously overvalued, are cautious, fearing the effect that slower growth might have on corporate profits, currently benefiting from high profit margins, and on dividends. These issues aside, our own prospects are a function of our own ability to choose the right companies to back and thereby make positive returns for shareholders. James, committed as he is to Aurora's success, has managed that pretty well in the last eight years and we see no reason to suppose that he won't continue to do so. ALEX HAMMOND-CHAMBERS 18 May 2005 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2005 Year ended 28 February 2005 Year ended 29 February 2004 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Gains on investments - 7,114 7,114 - 10,283 10,283 Exchange differences - 69 69 - 3 3 on overdraft Realised gains of 195 - 195 172 - 172 trading subsidiary Income 857 - 857 953 - 953 Investment management (156) (605) (761) (130) (620) (750) fees Other expenses (195) - (195) (174) - (174) Return before finance 701 6,578 7,279 821 9,666 10,487 costs and taxation Interest payable and (139) (139) (278) (89) (89) (178) similar charges Return before 562 6,439 7,001 732 9,577 10,309 taxation Taxation - - - 9 - 9 Return on ordinary 562 6,439 7,001 741 9,577 10,318 activities after taxation Ordinary dividends (438) - (438) (431) - (431) payable Transfer to reserves 124 6,439 6,563 310 9,577 9,887 Return per ordinary 3.72p 42.62p 46.34p 4.91p 63.39p 68.30p share CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AT 28 FEBRUARY 2005 2005 2004 £'000 £'000 FIXED ASSETS Investments at market value 41,836 34,851 CURRENT ASSETS Sales for future settlement 414 - Other debtors 75 66 Taxation recoverable 18 1 Total debtors 507 67 Cash at bank and in hand 745 839 1,252 906 CREDITORS: AMOUNTS FALLING DUE WITHIN ONE YEAR: Purchases for future settlement 734 275 Bank overdraft 6,751 6,406 Other creditors 555 598 Dividends payable 438 431 8,478 7,710 NET CURRENT LIABILITIES (7,226) (6,804) TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 34,610 28,047 CAPITAL AND RESERVES Called up share capital 3,777 3,777 Share premium account 10,997 10,997 Realised capital reserve 8,099 6,977 Unrealised capital reserve 10,949 5,632 Revenue reserve 788 664 EQUITY SHAREHOLDERS' FUNDS 34,610 28,047 Net assets per ordinary share 229.09p 185.65p CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2005 2005 2004 £'000 £'000 NET CASH INFLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 47 766 SERVICING OF FINANCE Interest paid (298) (268) TAXATION Tax (paid)/recovered - 43 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AND FINANCIAL INVESTMENT Payments to acquire fixed asset investments (7,747) (11,392) Receipts on disposal of fixed asset investments 7,921 9,071 NET CASH INFLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES 174 (2,321) EQUITY DIVIDENDS PAID (431) (468) NET CASH INFLOW BEFORE FINANCING (508) (2,248) (DECREASE)/INCREASE IN CASH (508) (2,248) Notes: The revenue column of the Statement of Total Return is the consolidated profit and loss account of the Group, comprising Aurora Investment Trust plc and AIT Trading Limited. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued during the period. There were no extraordinary items. Returns and net asset values per ordinary share are based on 15,107,250 ordinary shares in issue. Dividend The directors recommend an ordinary dividend of 2.9p per share absorbing £438,110. If approved by the Annual General Meeting, this dividend will be paid on 12 July 2005 to shareholders on the register at 27 May 2005. Status of this Report The above results for the year ended 28 February 2005 are unaudited. This financial information does not constitute the Company and Group's statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2005 but is derived from those accounts. Statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2005 are to be delivered to the Registrar of Companies following the Annual General Meeting. The results for the year ended 29 February 2004 are an abridged version of the Group's full accounts, which received an unqualified audit report, not containing statements under section 237(2) or 237(3) of the Companies Act 1985, and which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The accounting policies set out in the most recently published full accounts have been followed in this statement. Company Secretary and Registered Office: Cavendish Administration Limited Crusader House, 145-157 St. John Street London EC1V 4RU ---END OF MESSAGE---
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