Syndicate Forecasts

Amlin PLC 31 August 2000 AMLIN PLC SYNDICATE FORECASTS Amlin Underwriting Limited, the Lloyd's managing agency owned by Amlin plc, has released revised forecasts of the results of its managed Lloyd's syndicates for the 1998 year of account and its first forecasts for the 1999 year of account. For its principal underwriting operation, Syndicate 2001, the 1998 year of account forecast result remains unchanged. The 1999 year of account shows an improvement on the 1998 forecast, aided by better commercial motor results. The 1998 forecast for Syndicate 902 has improved as a result of positive developments on it's closed years of account. The Syndicate 1141 forecasts have deteriorated for the 1998 year of account, reflecting the poor trading conditions which existed in the non marine market. Similar adverse development was experienced in the non-marine account of Syndicate 2001. The forecasts, which are set out below, are expressed in a 5% range as a percentage of capacity and are after standard Names' expenses, including agents fees and profit commission. 1998 year of account Syndicate Capacity % owned Latest Previous £m by Amlin forecasts forecasts No. % to % % to % 902 37.6 35% 0.00 to 5.00 (2.50) to 2.50 1141 76.2 22% (16.00) to (11.00) (7.50) to (2.50) 2001 528.7 24% (7.00) to (2.00) (7.00) to (2.00) Total 642.5 (7.66) to (2.66) (6.80) to (1.80) 1999 year of account Syndicate Capacity % owned Current forecasts No. £m by Amlin % to % 902 37.6 45% (4.00) to 1.00 1141 76.2 52% (13.50) to (8.50) 2001 454.0 35% (6.00) to (1.00) Total 567.8 (6.87) to (1.87) The incurred loss ratios for all syndicates show an improvement over the 1998 year of account figures. However, since the forecasts for the 1999 year of account are made at an early stage in development, a conservative stance has been adopted. 2000 year of account Substantial rating increases continue to be achieved on the fleet motor business underwritten by Syndicate 2001 and this is expected to feed through to an improved overall result. Other business areas continue to see signs of improvement with the rating environment generally firming as the year progresses. Property insurance and aviation show clear improvement with property reinsurance hardening as the year progresses. The casualty account is now improving after a succession of poor years. Enquiries: Charles Philipps, Amlin plc 0207 746 1050 Richard Hextall, Amlin plc 0207 746 1054 David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0207 417 8989
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