Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 19 December 2003 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2003 SUMMARY The Latin American benchmark was up 1.7% in November, outperforming the U.S. markets and some of its emerging market peers. Within Latin America, Brazil and Peru were the strongest performers in November while Mexico was a laggard and Chile produced negative returns on profit taking. The MSCI Brazil rose 3.4% despite the Real weakening over 4% against sterling. On the macro and political fronts, Brazil extended its current IMF agreement to the coming year and was upgraded by Fitch Ratings from 'B' to B+'. In addition, the Central Bank cut the Selic rate by another 150 basis points to 17.5%. In Mexico, activity was dominated by inconclusive political debate on fiscal reform and divisions within the PRI. Economic activity remained weak and expectations for a resumption in growth were tempered. The Trust's NAV was up 2.0% for the month, slightly outperforming the index. Country allocation was positive, however company selection suffered due to a rise in several Brazilian stocks not owned in the portfolio (Eletrobras and Embraer again) and the portfolio's overweight position in CVRD which declined for the month. In addition, holdings of selective Mexican consumer stocks (Modelo, Femsa and Consorcio Ara) posted negative returns for the month, as did certain stocks in Chile, such as CTC and Enersis where we are overweight. For the year to date, our NAV is up 35.5 % versus the index of 41.4%. BRAZIL The Brazilian MSCI rose 3.4% for the month while the IBOVESPA was up 7.65%. This was despite the currency weakening by over 4% against sterling. The Brazilian Central Bank surprised the market with a rate cut of 150 basis points as inflation expectations continued to fall. The 12-month inflation level reached its lowest level this year, declining to 12.98%. Economic activity remained anaemic. Third quarter GDP fell 1.5% year on year, worse than expected. All sectors reported negative rates, agriculture was down nearly 3%, services off (-0.8%) and industry (-1.6%). On a positive note, October's trade data reported a surplus of $2.54 billion. Year to date, the trade surplus totalled US $20.34 billion, more than twice as much as the same period in 2002. On the political front, expectation of the Senate's passage of social security reform gained momentum (which bill was passed the beginning of December). The government also said it would unveil a new electricity model by year end which gave further strength to stock prices in this sector. With the primary surplus numbers in line, and the IMF agreement closing, we expect the country to meet the agreed upon target of 4.25% of GDP. The new standby facility amounts to $US 14 billion, of which $US 6 billion is new money. The programme is preventative, and no drawings are expected. With signs that growth may be picking up, inflationary expectations on the decline, and the current account under control, the macroeconomic backdrop appears to be strengthening, as is the political front where passage of key reforms looks more imminent. The combination of a sounder macroeconomic front with a positive political agenda gives Brazil several catalysts for continued good performance next year. Stock specific news this month included stronger than expected third quarter results for Petrobras, above consensus numbers for the banks (Itau in particular) and a strong showing for Cemig, the electricity concern owned in the portfolio. MEXICO The MSCI Mexico rose 2.3% in sterling while the peso continued to decline against the pound, off 4.7% for the month. A surprising showdown among the leaders of the PRI appeared to discourage the chances of a meaningful approval of fiscal reform as the PRI's President publicly disassociated himself with the PRI's own proposal for tax reform. September's industrial production came in worse than expected and Mexico's third quarter GDP declined 1.4% quarter on quarter. Consensus Economics has GDP continuing on a downward trend in 2003 (to 1.43%) and 2004 (to 3.24%). The main message to take away is that despite the upturn in the U.S. economy, there is still no evidence of a recovery in Mexico's externally oriented sectors, and this could intensify concerns regarding a weakening of the industrial link with the U.S. due to a loss of competitiveness in low-value-added industries. On a positive note, inflation remains benign and interest rates at historic lows. Moody's rating agency noted that the expected global economic recovery, a stable Mexican inflationary environment and lower domestic interest rates can permit a higher rating, even in a scenario where structural reforms are not approved near term. Stock specifics for the month included lacklustre performance by Telmex, and Walmex, both of which underperformed the index, Femsa and Modelo which had negative returns for the month, while America Movil, Cemex and Televisa all outperformed for November. CHILE The Chilean MSCI underperformed the regional index for the month, down 4.7% in sterling with the peso basically flat against the pound. There was no negative news for the month, in fact with the Central Bank keeping rates unchanged there was positive sentiment regarding prospects for growth for next year. Profit taking was largely the reason for the month's poor showing. Third quarter GDP rose 3% year over year, driven almost exclusively by external demand. Exports rose 13.5% year over year. The improving global outlook reinforces the positive trends for next year, particularly for Chile's main exports, copper and pulp. ARGENTINA The Argentine MSCI was down slightly for the month, (-0.3%) with the peso down 5.4% against sterling. The economic recovery remains robust, while a slight uptick in inflation in October raised concerns. This news was more pronounced given the government's announced wage increases for October. The government raised the minimum wage by 17% and state pensions by 9%, in an effort to spur consumption. Industrial production was up 17% in October, year on year, however off a very low base. Little apparent progress was made on the external debt restructuring, while utility tariff renegotiations remain slow. These two negotiations remain the key issues to be followed in the next few months. Kirchner remains very popular, with a 78% positive rating as of mid-November, however he has yet to tackle any of the significant issues to put Argentina on a sound economic footing. There was little stock specific news and we remain unconvinced of the merits of investing in Argentine companies other than those owned by Ambev, Petrobras and Coca Cola Femsa. PERU / VENEZUELA The Peruvian market had another great month, up 14.3% in sterling however the New Sol weakened again against the pound (down 1.7% for November.). Our sole holding, Buenaventura, contributed positively to performance as we have an overweight position and it was up over 21% for the month. The Peruvian economy grew a better than expected 3.6% in September, and successfully issued US $500 million of a new 30-year bond in the international markets, priced 375 bps over US Treasuries. Despite this more positive backdrop, there are few quality companies to own in the country, outside of the mining sector. Venezuela was also down sharply for the month (-38.0%), however its small representation in the index renders it negligible to overall performance. The Venezuelan economy declined over 7% in the third quarter, led by a 9% decline in the oil economy. The non-oil economy fell 6% driven by a collapse in construction and commerce activities. With the economy in a tailspin, and uncertainty over the course of government, we prefer to stay clear of the risk in owning Venezuelan equities for the near term. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/11/03 31/10/03 30/11/03 31/10/03 76.8p 75.3p 81.7p 80.5p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/11/03 31/10/03 Ordinary Shares 65.00p 65.00p Warrants 14.50p 14.25p Discount/(Premium) % 15.3 13.7 NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £36.7 million (£36.0 million). Market exposure 30/11/03 31/10/03 %) % EQUITIES Brazil 50.4 51.2 Chile 6.7 7.9 Mexico 39.2 37.9 Peru 2.9 2.5 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.2 99.5 Net Current Assets 0.8 0.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £41.1 million (£38.9 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/11/03 31/10/03 11.9% 8.2% ======== ======== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £37.0 million equal to 90.8% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Petrobras Brazil 4,374 10.7 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,359 8.3 America Movil Mexico 3,265 8.0 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,745 6.8 Telmex Mexico 2,367 5.8 Ambev Brazil 2,092 5.1 Banco Itau Brazil 2,040 5.0 Grupo Televisa Mexico 2,002 4.9 Cemex Mexico 1,880 4.6 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,698 4.2 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,448 3.6 Minas Buenaventura Peru 1,185 3.0 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,112 2.7 Cemig Cia Energy Brazil 1,075 2.6 Femsa Mexico 823 2.0 Brasil Telecom Brazil 811 2.0 Unibanco-Uniao Brazil 739 1.8 Gerdau Brazil 655 1.6 Telecom de Chile Chile 547 1.3 Bco Bradesco Brazil 530 1.3 Bco Santander Chile 483 1.2 Pao de Acucar Brazil 470 1.2 Quimica Y Minera Chile 434 1.1 Telesp Celular Brazil 424 1.0 Consorcio Mexico 422 1.0 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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