Interim Results

ABERFORTH SMALLER COMPANIES TRUST plc INTERIM RESULTS For the Six Months to 30 June 2003 FEATURES Fully Diluted Net Asset Value Total Return +18.5% Benchmark Index Total Return +19.2% Increase in Interim Dividend per Ordinary Share +6.1% Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust plc (ASCoT) invests only in small UK quoted companies and is managed by Aberforth Partners. CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS RESULTS REVIEW For the six months to 30 June 2003 ASCoT achieved a total return of 18.5%, which compares with the total return of 19.2% from the Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index (Excluding Investment Companies), your Company's investment benchmark. Larger companies, as represented by the FTSE All-Share Index, registered a total return of 6.3%. ASCoT has therefore slightly underperformed its benchmark, though the real feature of the period was the significant outperformance from smaller companies relative to their larger brethren. Your Board is pleased to announce an increase in this year's interim dividend to 3.50p per share. This represents a rise of 6.1% compared with the equivalent period last year. This rate of increase reflects the robustness of ASCoT's portfolio in difficult economic times as well as your Board's belief that dividend yield and growth will continue to be of significance to investors' total return. The interim dividend will be paid on 5 September 2003 to Shareholders on the register on 8 August 2003. At the Annual General Meeting held in February, Shareholders renewed the authority for your Company to buy in up to 14.99% of its Ordinary Shares. No shares have yet been bought in under this authority, but your Board would not hesitate to act should we believe it to be in Shareholders' best interests. During the six month period, your Company was able to buy 40,000 Warrants for cancellation at a price that modestly enhanced the fully diluted net asset value. However, of greater importance was the passing of the final exercise date for the Warrants of 31 March 2003. The remaining 963,311 Warrants were exercised and the listing of the resulting Ordinary Shares took place on 9 April 2003. With the expiry of its Warrants, ASCoT's capital structure is even simpler, now comprising only Ordinary Shares. Investment trusts' ability to enhance shareholder returns by borrowing is one of their greatest strengths, although the use of long term fixed rate debt has proved a burden to many in recent times. ASCoT is not currently geared and has no long term debt. A flexible £80m debt facility is, however, available and may be drawn down on request. This or similar facilities have been used in the past to the advantage of ASCoT's shareholders, and no doubt will be used again. INVESTMENT BACKGROUND The recent rally in stockmarkets around the world would appear to have been justified by a resolution of the Iraqi war, which has helped to lower the price of oil, and by the efficient containment of SARS. A remarkable feature of the rebound has been the concomitant development in the prices of other asset classes: rising equities have been accompanied by reinvigorated commodities prices, narrowing spreads on corporate debt and a falling dollar - all potentially indicative of inflation - but also by a continuation in the bull market for government bonds - hardly consistent with resurgent inflation. These unusual price movements have fuelled a debate between those who worry that the Western world is following Japan into deflation and those who identify inflation as the true threat. Those in the former camp point to the legacies of the equity bubble of the late 1990s - excess capacity and a highly indebted private sector risk - and to China's emergence as a major economy. The US has responded by cutting interest rates to their lowest level for 45 years, together with tax cuts and greater public spending. On top of these, ambiguous comments about the commitment to "the strong dollar" have helped push the US currency down against the euro by 16% since 30 June 2002. But, most remarkably, Fed officials have expressed their confidence in "making sure it (deflation) doesn't happen" through the use of so-called "unconventional measures". Financial markets are entering uncharted waters, but such measures appear to entail the use of the printing press to create more money. One mooted tactic, which gratifyingly goes some way to rationalise the unusual combination of asset price movements in recent months, is for the Fed to suppress yields of government bonds of all maturities by buying them with their newly printed dollars. To date, "unconventional measures" have not been employed, but the mere suggestion appears to have driven financial markets to build in a greater likelihood of reflation. Such an outcome would probably prove more benign for equities than a slide into deflation. Whether through luck or judgement, however, the spectre of deflation is much less frightening in the UK. Inflation, as gauged by the RPIX, is running at around 3% and, thanks to government spending and low interest rates, the economy is forecast to grow in nominal terms at least as quickly as the US and more quickly than the Eurozone in 2003. Sterling's weakness against the euro is also helpful and may assist in addressing some of the imbalances in the UK economy. In particular, it should be of more direct benefit than lower interest rates to exporters and those businesses with continental competitors: according to the National Statistics Office, the manufacturing sector's output managed a small improvement in the first quarter of 2003 after having fallen for eight consecutive quarters. The key to the UK's relative resilience, however, remains the consumer. There are signs, though, that confidence is slipping and that house price inflation has fallen sharply from the 26% rate reached at the end of 2002. Against this background, and with the global economic outlook murky, it is perhaps as well that the government has opted to maximise the country's fiscal and monetary flexibility by deciding against EMU entry for the time being. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE The six months to 30 June 2003 can be split into two distinct periods. In a continuation of the trends that prevailed in the second half of 2002, the first two and a half months were in the grip of the bear market. ASCoT performed relatively well in this period. From mid March, however, the stockmarket staged a strong rally that was led by small companies. ASCoT's performance lagged in this recovery phase, as the Managers questioned the fundamental justification for the revaluation of a number of businesses. Corporate activity made a minor contribution to ASCoT's performance, though there are signs that confidence is returning. Although only 22 benchmark companies were acquired in ASCoT's first half, against 53 deals in the whole of 2002, many more are in discussions or have actually received bids. Clearly, a proportion of these approaches will fail, but there are grounds for optimism: large amounts of money in venture capital funds are waiting to be invested; in a low growth world, management teams may seek to add value through consolidation; and, as is described below in greater detail, small UK companies appear to offer good value. The companies in ASCoT's portfolio have, on the whole, coped well with the uncertain economic environment. A useful means to assess this assertion is to examine their dividend payments. The dividends announced by the 103 companies in the portfolio at 30 June 2003 were 6% higher than the corresponding payments in the previous year, although it is should be noted that ASCoT's actual receipts vary from this since the portfolio is actively managed. Of the 103 businesses, 13 did not, as anticipated, pay a dividend; seven cuts were endured, three of which were expected; and 23 companies reported unchanged dividends. The remaining 60 raised their payouts. With inflation around 3%, this level of dividend growth is encouraging and, in the absence of robust growth in the economy at large, is due in part to the average dividend cover of the portfolio, which at the end of June was the same as that of the benchmark. This is significant, given that over ASCoT's history the portfolio's cover has been on average 11% lower than that of the benchmark. The opportunity to construct such a portfolio has been presented by the compression of the gap between the price earnings ratios of "value" and "growth" stocks that has characterised the bear market. This allowed the Managers to make selective purchases of higher quality businesses whose valuations would previously have been too demanding. 30 June 2003 30 June 2002 Characteristics ASCoT Benchmark ASCoT Benchmark Number of Companies 103 827 96 915 Weighted Average Market Capitalisation £309.0m £334.0m £317.6m £355.4m Price Earnings Ratio (Historic) 11.9x 13.4x 12.3x 14.3x Net Dividend Yield (Historic) 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% Dividend Cover (Historic) 2.5x 2.5x 2.7x 2.5x INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The threat of deflation, whether real or imagined, has profound implications for both economies and financial markets. For the Fed, the threat is very real. It has responded with interest rate cuts and, more recently, talk about "unconventional measures". The truth is that words are a more powerful weapon than actual deployment of these measures: the trick is to build confidence among consumers and businesses that deflation will not happen, so that they resume spending and investment. The risk is that, as in Japan, loose monetary conditions do not translate into greater activity in the real economy. Consumers and businesses may, for example, consider it more rational to reduce their indebtedness than to spend. Therefore, despite a prompt end to the Iraqi war, economic conditions still do not appear conducive to sustained growth in corporate profits, the sine qua non of successful equity investment. Such doubts are reflected in the actions of those running the businesses. Judging by the results of ASCoT's portfolio companies, management teams are doing a fine job in controlling costs. They are not, though, sufficiently confident yet to invest: their focus remains on optimising cash generation, often by setting capital expenditure at under depreciation. The Managers do not, therefore, foresee an imminent return to double-digit increases in earnings per share for the stockmarket as a whole. It still seems appropriate to think of real returns from equities of close to the 5-7% long term average. They will, though, be prone to wild swings from year to year, perhaps of the sort witnessed so far in 2003. Dividend yield and dividend growth may therefore assume greater significance. From the point of view of investors in small UK quoted companies, the combination of a 3.0% yield and 2.5x dividend cover is encouraging. Although larger companies, as gauged by the FTSE All-Share Index (excluding loss makers and investment companies), boast a higher yield of 3.5%, they do so at the expense of a lower dividend cover at 1.7x and, therefore, ceteris paribus, inferior dividend growth prospects. Following this logic, ASCoT's portfolio would appear relatively well positioned. It is diversified, with holdings in 103 companies, and generates a 3.4% yield without sacrificing dividend cover, which stands at 2.5x. In constructing this portfolio, the Managers have applied the same principles of value investment to which they have adhered throughout ASCoT's life. Such consistency has inevitably led to volatile relative performance, as the mood of the market has changed, but has, on the whole, resulted in respectable returns. William Y. Hughes Chairman 17 July 2003 The Statement of Total Return, summary Balance Sheet and summary Cash Flow Statement are set out below:- STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN (Incorporating the Revenue Account1) (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2003 30 June 2002 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Realised (losses)/gains on sales - (1,260) (1,260) - 7,298 7,298 Unrealised gains - 47,623 47,623 - 10,187 10,187 ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Gains/(losses) on investments - 46,363 46,363 - 17,485 17,485 Deemed cost of Warrants purchased for - (50) (50) - - - cancellation Dividend income 5,988 - 5,988 5,442 254 5,696 Interest income 207 - 207 299 - 299 Other income 9 - 9 48 - 48 Investment management fee (475) (792) (1,267) (580) (967) (1,547) Other expenses (146) - (146) (127) - (127) ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- Return on ordinary activities before tax 5,583 45,521 51,104 5,082 16,772 21,854 Tax on ordinary activities - - - - - - ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Return attributable to equity shareholders 5,583 45,521 51,104 5,082 16,772 21,854 Dividends in respect of equity shares (2,969) - (2,969) (2,767) - (2,767) ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- Transfer to reserves 2,614 45,521 48,135 2,315 16,772 19,087 ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= ======= Returns per Ordinary Share2: Basic 6.62p 53.97p 60.59p 6.07p 20.03p 26.10p Diluted 6.59p 53.76p 60.35p 5.99p 19.76p 25.75p Dividends per Ordinary Share 3.50p - 3.50p 3.30p - 3.30p NOTES 1. The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued in the period. 2. The calculations of revenue return per Ordinary Share are based on net revenue of £5,583,000 (30 June 2002 - £5,082,000) and on Ordinary Shares of 84,339,740 (30 June 2002 - 83,741,322) in the case of basic returns and 84,677,027 (30 June 2002 - 84,864,791) in the case of diluted returns. The calculations of capital return per Ordinary Share are based on net capital gains of £45,521,000 (30 June 2002 - £16,772,000) and on Ordinary Shares of 84,339,740 (30 June 2002 - 83,741,322) in the case of basic returns and 84,677,027 (30 June 2002 - 83,741,322) in the case of diluted returns. SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET (unaudited) 30 June 30 June 31 December 2003 2002 2002 £'000 £'000 £'000 Securities officially listed on the London Stock Exchange 310,834 335,263 273,543 -------- -------- -------- Cash at bank 14,332 612 6,555 Debtors 5,233 2,315 1,024 Creditors (5,434) (3,617) (5,227) -------- -------- -------- Net current assets/ (liabilities) 14,131 (690) 2,352 -------- -------- -------- Total assets less liabilities 324,965 334,573 275,895 ======== ======== ======== Capital and reserves: equity interests Called up share capital (Ordinary Shares) 848 839 839 Reserves: Share premium account 2,043 1,089 1,090 Special reserve 133,525 133,525 133,525 Capital reserve - realised 149,471 144,040 151,600 Capital reserve - unrealised 25,638 42,828 (21,985) Revenue reserve 13,440 12,252 10,826 -------- -------- -------- 324,965 334,573 275,895 ======== ======== ======== Net Asset Values: per Ordinary Share (basic) 383.1p 399.0p 329.0p per Ordinary Share (fully diluted) n/a 394.0p 326.3p per Ordinary Share (diluted - FRS 14) n/a 394.1p 326.3p NOTES As at 30 June 2003, the Company had 84,818,734 Ordinary Shares (30 June 2002 and 31 December 2002 - 83,855,423). No warrants remain in issue (30 June 2002 - 1,434,811 and 31 December 2001 - 1,003,311) in issue. In April 2003, as a result of holders exercising the subscription rights of their Warrants, 963,311 Ordinary Shares of 1p were issued at 100p per share. During the six months to 30 June 2003, the Company purchased 40,000 Warrants for cancellation at a total cost of £77,000. SUMMARY CASH FLOW STATEMENT (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2003 30 June 2002 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net cash inflow from operating activities 3,802 3,312 Capital expenditure and financial investment Payments to acquire investments (34,101) (61,962) Receipts from sales of investments 42,390 49,762 -------- -------- Net cash inflow/(outflow) from capital expenditure and financial investment 8,289 (12,200) ------- -------- 12,091 (8,888) Equity dividends paid (5,199) (4,934) -------- -------- 6,892 (13,822) Financing Issue of Ordinary Shares 962 224 Warrants purchased for cancellation (77) - -------- -------- Net cash inflow from financing 885 224 -------- -------- Increase/(decrease) in cash 7,777 (13,598) ======== ======== NOTES 1. The foregoing do not comprise statutory accounts (as defined in section 240(5) of the Companies Act 1985) of the Company. The statutory accounts for the year to 31 December 2002, which contained an unqualified Report of the Auditors, have been lodged with the Registrar of Companies and did not contain a statement required under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. 2. The Interim Report is expected to be posted to shareholders on 21 July 2003. Members of the public may obtain copies from Aberforth Partners, 14 Melville Street, Edinburgh EH3 7NS or from its website at www.aberforth.co.uk. CONTACT: David Ross Aberforth Partners 0131 220 0733 Aberforth Partners, Secretaries - 17 July 2003 ANNOUNCEMENT ENDS
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