Interim Management Statement

STRATEGIC EQUITY CAPITAL PLC This interim management statement, issued in accordance with the UK Listing Authority's disclosure and transparency rules, relates to the period from 1 July 2012 to 30 September 2012. Investment highlights * Net assets per share increased by 12.7%, outperforming the FTSE Small Cap Index by 1.7%. * Outperformance was driven by strong performance from cyclical companies with exposure to recovering overseas economies. * Smaller companies remained undervalued; market value drivers shifted from earnings growth and debt reduction to M&A activity and re-rating. Financial highlights * Company net asset value increased to £77.3m or 114.9p per share. * £3m of cash distributions were received from Strategic Recovery Fund II, reducing the unlisted investments weighting from 19.3% to 14.2% of the portfolio. * The cash weighting was increased to 13.1% in order to fund the forthcoming tender offer and dividend, and take advantage of any short term setbacks in markets or the prices of the manager's active target investments. Investment Manager's Report Market Review The third quarter of 2012 saw equity markets perform strongly. The broader UK market delivered a return of 4.7% and mid and small size companies delivered 8.9% and 11.0% respectively. Eschewing recent volatility, these indices were strong across all three months. Both cyclical stocks and defensives with growing earnings performed well. This performance was at odds with market earnings forecasts for calendar year 2012, which are now negative for the smaller companies sector as a whole. Profit warnings broadened out from the consumer sector, albeit remaining well below long term averages. There was little discernible trend across sectors, with many warnings mainly driven by company specific issues. Trading conditions appeared to be slightly tougher than anticipated during the summer; however "tough but manageable" remained the key message from the management of most of the portfolio companies, and their earnings expectations remained positive. There was continued M&A activity, albeit affecting fewer companies than in the second quarter. Most notably Aegis was acquired by Japanese peer Dentsu at a 48% premium to its previous market value. This high level of premium is unusually high for a FTSE250 company. It served as a useful reminder that many quoted companies are trading at substantial discounts to the levels at which trade and financial buyers are prepared to pay for control. Portfolio Review The Company's NAV rose by 12.7%, outperforming the 11.0% rise in the Small Cap Index. The total NAV return for the last 12 months is 29.3%, a cumulative outperformance of 7.9% compared to the FTSE Smaller Companies Index, which rose 21.4%. Portfolio turnover increased over the quarter to 30% which is consistent with our long term investment strategy. Two new investments were made; the position in Goals was increased significantly post the collapse of a bid approach. Kewill, Optos and Statpro were exited completely, raising £5.3m. Strong performers Lavendon and RPC were top sliced. Net cash increased significantly from £2.0m (3.0% of opening NAV) to £10.1m (13.1% of closing NAV), due to theses sales and the distributions from SRFII. Due diligence on two other potential investments is drawing to a close. Post the tender offer and dividend, we anticipate a cash balance of c.8-9% prior to any purchases. The majority of portfolio news flow remained positive. The key positive contributors to performance in the period were Lupus, Lavendon, KCOM, 4imprint and RPC. Lupus and 4imprint continue to generate strong organic growth, driven by self-help and key end markets recovering in North America. We believe both companies still have significant growth potential. Lavendon released positive interim results and this led to analyst upgrades. KCOM and RPC's returns were largely due to re-ratings on the back of in line trading updates. The key negative contributor over the period was E2V, which fell 6% following a trading statement showing some weakening in its end markets. The company remains lowly rated compared with highly relevant precedent M&A. Optos' shares also underperformed, despite an in-line trading statement. The fund exited the position over the period as we were unable to complete our diligence on the company. The underlying cash flow of the portfolio remains strong. Despite a slight re-rating of the portfolio, the aggregate valuation remains attractive at 13.3% SVG cash flow yield and a price to cash flow of 8.5x. The average level of gearing of underlying portfolio companies remains low at 0.5x net debt/EBITDA. This allows portfolio companies significant scope to raise dividends and/or undertake accretive M&A. With the cost of debt remaining low, it would not be a surprise if certain portfolio companies were acquired by financial investors, willing to lever companies to a higher level than public markets investors feel comfortable with. Outlook UK equities have delivered significant returns in 2012. The outlook for continued strong medium to long term returns from equities remains good. Despite a modest recent re-rating, equities remain valued at multiples significantly below long term averages. Markets appear to be pricing in a decreasing, but potential likelihood of an earnings collapse. Whilst we do not anticipate this, it is likely that earnings in aggregate for 2012 will disappoint original forecasts. Economic data remains inconsistent. Some sectors and markets, such as US house building, appear to be on a clear recovery track. Other segments, such as industrials with high exposure to capital expenditure in the Far East, appear to be pausing for breath. In individual circumstances, markets have become more efficient at pricing relative earnings risk. Looking forward we believe that many companies have reined back their operating and capital expenditure budgets that were previously targeted at growth initiatives. 12 month forward earnings growth estimates for the FTSE 100 remain low, albeit slightly improved at 5.7%; mid and small cap earnings growth remain higher, estimated at +10.8% and +10.2% . Despite the recent rally the rating of public equities remains very low compared with history. We continue to believe early stages of multi-year recovery in profits, ratings and equity markets. Compared with the last three years, earnings growth and debt reduction are likely to be replaced by re-rating and corporate activity as the primary drivers of return in the medium term. Following the disturbed trading over the summer period, not all companies will be able to make up profit forecasts by the end of the year. We anticipate a few more warnings during Q4, which may provide interesting entry points into new investments. We aim for every portfolio holding to exhibit medium to long term earnings growth, under valuation and strong cash flow characteristics. Coveted assets, with few poison pills, should enable the Trust's NAV to benefit from M&A activity as and when it occurs; it is however, impossible to accurately predict. In the meantime, the 13.3% SVG free cash flow yield continues to be very attractive. With secondary fundraisings in short supply, market purchases remain the primary focus for new investments. We have built up the cash position to increase flexibility and hopefully benefit from any temporary disappointments which may befall quality smaller companies. Summary (as at 30 September 2012) Net assets £77.3m NAV per share 114.9p Net cash % 13.1 Average discount to NAV 21.8% Top 10 Investments Company name (as at 30 September % of invested portfolio 2012) Lupus Capital 15.3 Strategic Recovery Fund II 13.5 Lavendon Group 9.5 4imprint Group 9.1 KCOM Group 8.9 E2V Technologies 8.9 Allocate Software 6.4 CVS Group 5.4 RPC Group 5.3 Mecom Group 3.3 Sector analysis % of portfolio Support services 18.7 Manufacturing 18.3 Technology 16.2 Investment companies 14.2 Net cash 13.1 Telecoms 7.8 Retail 6.6 Media 5.1 Size analysis % of portfolio (market cap) <£100 million 24.5 £100 - £300 million 34.9 £300 - £500 million 8.7 Greater than £500 18.8 million Net cash 13.1 The Directors are not aware of any significant events or transactions which have occurred between 30 September 2012 and the date of publication of this statement which have had a material impact on the financial position of the Company. The company published a circular to shareholders on 4 October 2012 in which it set out the terms and conditions of a tender offer for up to 4 per cent of the Company's issued share capital. For further information please contact: Theresa Russell, Marketing SVG Investment Mangers Limited Telephone: +44 (0)20 7010 8996 or email marketing@svgim.co.uk Company website: www.strategicequitycapital.com
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