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Friday 23 November, 2018

Edison Investment Research Lim

Edison issues outlook on Xbrane Biopharma (XBRANE)

Edison Investment Research Limited
Edison issues outlook on Xbrane Biopharma (XBRANE)

23-Nov-2018 / 13:37 GMT/BST


London, UK, 23 November 2018

Edison issues outlook on Xbrane Biopharma (XBRANE)

Xbrane (XBRANE:SS) now focuses on developing high-margin biosimilar products. In July, Xbrane did a deal with STADA on Xlucane, its Lucentis biosimilar and gained an upfront fee of EUR7.5m; management estimates that Xbrane's 50:50 profit share could be worth up to EUR100m per year. STADA will market Xlucane. Xbrane aims to start clinical development in Q119. In drug delivery, Spherotide bulk sales to Iran were SEK14m to June 2018. In Europe, the key market, Spherotide development requires a partner to fund trials. The Chinese deal with CR Pharma completed in February, bringing a SEK13m fee. Our valuation has been revised to SEK581m.

We have revised the indicative valuation based on cash flows between 2019 and 2030, adjusted for updated financials, clinical timelines, probabilities and the better than expected STADA deal on Xlucane. With company expectations of up to a EUR100m yearly profit share from Xlucane, the value is revised to SEK581m. This equates to SEK92/share before any further dilution. We estimate that Xbrane will require possibly SEK100m of cash in 2019 to fund its 50% share of the company-estimated EUR30-40m Xlucane Phase III costs. The valuation assumes the Phase III is run efficiently to enable a mid-2022 European launch.

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750543  23-Nov-2018 

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