Hardman & Co Research on Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB): 
1H26 accelerating franchise growth

ABG’s results may be considered across two, distinct, time dimensions. The long-term value, created by franchise growth, picked up in 1H’26. Key growth was well spread and seen in deposits, specialist lending and wealth management. The “Future State” target of £10bn client balances was achieved two years early, and the customer base is growing. Short term, there remains sensitivity to the interest rate environment (avg. base rates down 73bp 1H’26 vs. 1H’25). A higher-for-longer outlook post Iran conflict would be positive for 2H’26/2027 and, if sustained, could see FY’26 forecasts raised. The ca.2x covered div. yield is ca.7%.

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Analyst: Mark Thomas mt@hardmanandco.com

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