Nordic Outlook: Growth increasing, but difficul...

Economic signals are generally positive. World trade now seems poised to take
off in earnest. This will especially benefit export- and manufacturing-dependent
countries, such as Sweden. Central banks are continuing to prop up the economic
recovery with highly expansionary policies, and fiscal belt-tightening is being
postponed in most places. Damaged financial sector and household balance sheets
are now healing, thanks to rising stock markets and home prices. But because of
the policies being pursued, the bill for the lending excesses of the 2000s
decade also remains unpaid. Rapidly rising government debts and a global banking
system under continued regulatory pressures will lead to major economic policy
challenges during the next couple of years.

In the OECD countries, economic growth will be about 2.5 per cent annually
during 2010-2011, or somewhat above trend. The upturn in unemployment has been
smaller than expected, but growth is insufficient to push down the jobless rate
quickly. Euro zone growth is being hampered by the crisis in southern Europe,
which is making huge austerity programmes necessary, and not only in Greece. The
United States and Japan are regaining their strength, while Chinese economic
tightening will counteract the risk of asset price inflation. Despite rising
prices for most commodities, inflation pressure will continue to ease. The US
Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and their peers can hold
off on their key interest rate hikes in order to offset fiscal austerity
measures and the impact of new credit regulations. The euro will continue to
lose value against the US dollar.

Sweden has good potential to take advantage of the global recovery. Because of
strong balance sheets, the country will be well prepared to deal with economic
and financial reversals in Europe and elsewhere. Exports are about to bounce
back after the disappointing winter months. GDP growth will be 3.0 per cent in
2010 (2.7 per cent in calendar-adjusted terms) and 2.7 per cent in 2011: in line
with our previous forecast. Expansionary economic policies have contributed to
an unusually fast labour market turnaround, but unemployment is falling only
slowly and will remain at 8.5 per cent late in 2011. This will contribute to
continued low inflation pressure in Sweden as well.

Because of positive economic growth signals and greater focus on household
credit expansion, the Riksbank will raise its key interest rate in July. After
that the bank will proceed rather gently, and at year-end 2011 the repo rate
will stand at 2.75 per cent. Due to structural changes in the credit market, the
neutral interest rate will move downward to 3.75 per cent. The krona will resume
its previous appreciation, bringing the EUR/SEK exchange rate below 9.00 by late
2011. This autumn's parliamentary election will lead to a more expansionary
fiscal policy, regardless of the winner. The election campaign also indicates a
growing divide between Sweden's two main political blocks. If the "red-green"
opposition wins and forms a new government, we expect it to pursue traditional
leftist policies that rely heavily on stimulating demand. The risk of poorer
economic performance in Sweden is associated with a delicate housing market
situation.

"The world's economic and financial systems are still moving in a complex
post-crisis environment, where the economic policy choices ahead for many
countries will not be voluntary," says Robert Bergqvist, SEB's Chief Economist.
"Greece is a clear example of this. To prevent secondary effects and avoid
higher sovereign bond yields, credible economic plans for the future must be
presented. The shape of fiscal policy will have a major impact on economic
performance. There are also good reasons to carefully monitor efforts to create
a new financial infrastructure. This will impact the credit situation and the
cost of capital, thereby affecting growth as well as how quickly and how high
central banks will hike their key interest rates. In the euro zone, the banking
system accounts for about 80 per cent of all credit supply. Combined with
further expected credit losses, this means the euro zone runs the greatest risk
that growth will also be hampered."

"Since early 2010 we have entered a phase where gaps between the economic and
financial situation of different countries are being exposed," says HÃ¥kan
Frisén, SEB's Head of Economic Research and editor in chief of Nordic Outlook.
"Although imbalance problems will persist, growth in 2010 and 2011 looks set to
be fairly good. The recovery has gained a foothold, especially in Asia but also
in the US. Growth is also speeding up in Germany and the Nordic countries, led
by increasingly strong exports, but there is great uncertainty. One of our
alternative scenarios assumes a positive spiral that would lead to one per cent
higher global economic growth. The probability of such a scenario is about 25
per cent. We estimate the probability of another downturn and a new recession at
around 15 per cent."

The euro zone countries are fighting an uphill battle. Government budget
problems are increasing their risk of domestic political instability, and growth
will be restrained during a long fiscal consolidation process.

"The emergency loans to Greece have shown how mutually dependent the euro zone
countries actually are," says Tomas Lindström, euro zone analyst at SEB Economic
Research. "Far-reaching reforms will be needed to enable the euro to regain
credibility and strength. Otherwise the recovery will be jeopardised, and the
risk of secondary effects in other countries will increase. Our calculations
show that if a budget deficit is one per cent of GDP higher, this can push up
long-term yields by 50 basis points. The 'PIIGS' countries have become less
competitive in the past decade, and the need to lower cost pressure by means of
internal devaluations is about 20-30 per cent," says Lindström, who believes
that increased economic divergence between euro zone countries will make it
difficult for the ECB to hike its key rate. While the German economy is in a
relatively strong position, budget and cost adjustments will hamper southern
European growth for many years.

The US economy looks set to regain its dynamism, but unemployment will fall only
slowly, while different economic sectors will show different recovery rates.

"Many small businesses in the US are still struggling against strong headwinds,"
says economist Daniel Bergvall of SEB Economic Research. "And President Obama's
plan to double US exports within five years would require a 30 per cent
weakening of the dollar, which we don't believe will happen. The household
savings ratio has risen and now seems likely to end up at 3-4 per cent, or lower
than we previously expected. This is good for economic growth but leaves
households in continued high debt." If we are to follow the Fed's yardstick for
justifying a change in interest rate policy, then resource utilisation,
inflation and inflation expectations must rise. No such trend is visible right
now, according to Bergvall, who expects that the Fed will not hike its key rate
until late 2010.

Economic growth is gradually returning in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, aided
by a weak euro and lower interest rates. The domestic economy is still being
squeezed by earlier belt-tightening and high unemployment. But here, too, there
are signs of bottoming out, and private consumption may begin to increase late
in 2010.

"Estonia is continuing on its path towards euro zone accession in 2011," says
Mikael Johansson, Baltic and Eastern European analyst at SEB Economic Research.
"The recession and fiscal austerity measures have reduced imbalances, and 2010
is likely to be the last year of pay cuts. We estimate that Estonia's economy
will grow by 2 per cent this year and 5 per cent in 2011. The Latvian economy
will continue to fall in 2010, then rebound by 4 per cent in 2011. Like Latvia,
Lithuania is under pressure due to strained public finances in a situation where
the government's position has been weakened, but we do not anticipate any
immediate government crisis. We expect growth in Lithuania of 1 per cent this
year, increasing to 4 per cent in 2011."

Key figures: International and Swedish economy
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|International economy. GDP, year-on-year changes, %|2008 |2009 |2010|2011|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|United States                                      | 0.4 |-2.4 |3.6 |2.8 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Euro zone                                          | 0.5 |-4.0 |1.5 |1.8 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Japan                                              |-1.2 |-5.2 |2.4 |2.2 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|OECD                                               | 0.6 |-3.5 |2.5 |2.4 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|China                                              | 9.6 | 8.7 |10.5|9.0 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Baltic countries                                   |-0.7 |-15.7|0.1 |4.2 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|The world (purchasing power parities, PPP)         | 3.0 |-0.6 |4.7 |4.7 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Swedish economy. Year-on-year changes, %           |2008 |2009 |2010|2011|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|GDP, working day corrected                         |-0.5 |-4.7 |2.7 |2.7 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|GDP, actual                                        |-0.2 |-4.9 |3.0 |2.7 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Unemployment, % (EU definition)                    | 6.2 | 8.3 |8.9 |8.8 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation               | 3.4 |-0.3 |1.2 |1.9 |
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Government net lending (% of GDP)                  | 2.5 |-0.8 |-1.0|-0.6|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Repo rate (December)                               |2.00 |0.25 |1.25|2.75|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+
|Exchange rate, EUR/SEK (December)                  |10.92|10.24|9.00|8.90|
+---------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+----+----+


Watch the film clip at SEB Newsroom  <

http://newsroom.sebgroup.com/>where HÃ¥kan
Frisén talks about Nordic Outlook. Full Report to be picked up at:
www.sebgroup.com <

http://www.sebgroup.com/>, and SEB Newsroom
<

http://newsroom.sebgroup.com/>.

SEB is a North European financial group serving some 400,000 corporate customers
and institutions and five million private individuals. SEB offers universal
banking services in Sweden, Germany and the Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania. It also has local presence in the other Nordic countries, Ukraine
and Russia and a global presence through its international network in major
financial centres. On 31 March 2010, the Group's total assets amounted to SEK
2,285bn (~EUR 236bn) while its assets under management totalled SEK 1,382bn
(~EUR 143bn). The Group has about 19,000 employees. Read more about SEB
atwww.sebgroup.com <

http://www.sebgroup.com/>.

_____________________________________________
For further information, please contact:
Robert Bergqvist, [phone]
Daniel Bergvall, [phone]
Håkan Frisén, [phone]
Olle Holmgren, [phone]
Mikael Johansson, [phone]
Tomas Lindström, [phone]
Elisabeth Lennhede, Press & PR, [phone],[e-mail]
<mailto:[e-mail]>



[HUG#1411475]





    Press release (PDF): 

http://hugin.info/1208/R/1411475/363890.pdf