Interim Results

Ruffer Investment Company Limited 16 March 2007 RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED Investment Manager's Report For the period ended 31 December 2006 Investment Objective The principal objective of the Company is to achieve a positive total annual return, after all expenses, of at least twice the Bank of England base rate (5 per cent as at 31 December 2006) by investing in internationally listed or quoted equities or equity related securities (including convertibles) and bonds which are issued by corporate issuers, supra-nationals or government organisations. Investment Review The last six months have seen the asset value of the portfolio rise slightly in capital terms (from 119.4p to 119.6p) which, together with the dividend of 0.5p which was paid on 13 October 2006, represents a total half-year return of 0.6%. This is the second disappointing semi-annual figure; the Investment Manager's report six months ago reflected a full year return of 9.0%, but the majority of that was in the latter half of 2005. The annual return for the calendar year 2006 did not even match that of a cash return, let alone the targeted aspiration of twice that level. During the last six months Sterling rose by 9.4% against the Yen, 5.6% against the Norwegian Krone and 5.2% against the Swiss Franc. Given that half of the portfolio has been invested in these three currencies, this created a significant headwind for the Fund. During the period Sterling's trade weighted value has risen and while we would for choice think that Sterling would be a weak currency, the investments we have made were not based on the thought of Sterling weakness. The question which preoccupies our thoughts is that we are in the midst of an asset price boom engineered through the unprecedented opportunities to borrow money at a rate below the natural level to keep borrowers and lenders in balance. Although interest rates have been rising in the West for some months, credit spreads have narrowed, which means that the ability to fund purchases in a leveraged way has continued uninterruptedly. Stock market commentators have underestimated the strength of this phenomenon, because the stock market is not at the heart of the bubble in the way that it was in the 'dot-com boom' of 1999. Today it is the property market, the sub-prime fixed interest market, and infrastructure plays which are the targets: it is true that the first and last of these are represented in the stock market, but they are not central to it. It is certainly the reason why the mid-cap stocks have been strong, and why the very large market capitalisations have been, in comparative terms, left behind. Financial dislocations are the oldest court card in the pack. They always come about from the same confluence of events - a long period of benign asset price rises which persuades investors that they are flecked with genius, coupled with the ability to borrow a lot of money so that their genius can be reflected on the widest of canvasses. The result is, almost literally, a Jackson Pollock - not cockney rhyming slang, but an entity of great value to the cognoscenti, but not necessarily to the average man who has not shared in the prescience of an early arrival at the investment ball. The end of the benign period always ends seemingly without warning, and for no apparent reason. The result is, again, always the same: a time of widespread wealth destruction and discontinuous markets. The combination of these two make it difficult to be sure that any asset class will easily ride happily through the storm. The very lack of liquidity in so many previously 'open' markets means that sound investments are sold, simply to provide liquidity which always becomes desirable in difficult times. These conditions are notoriously difficult to invest in, but currencies are one of the most effective ways of so doing. For one thing, they are a zero sum game. For another, they are at the centre of the carry trade whereby speculators who are taking on big levels of debt can reduce their servicing costs (the rates of interest on Swiss Francs and Yen are much lower than those obtaining on the Dollar or Sterling). A reversal of this carry trade could well make significant capital gains on the currencies, and if these are held through the dislocation, they could be a fine source of performance for the Fund. The opportunity is also the reason for the problem: while we wait, the carry trade barrels on, and these investments in fear, far from being a lost opportunity for making money on the bull tack, become a source of attrition of value. That attrition may be slow, but it is an uphill task for the investments in greed to make headway while it is happening. Investment Outlook At the risk of sounding like General Foch, who reported that his centre flank was giving way, his right flank was in retreat, but the situation was excellent and he would sound the advance, we remain confident that the risk/reward in this portfolio is attractive. We further assert that the portfolio is well positioned for the dangers that we see ahead; we await the future with nervous confidence. Ruffer LLP 13 February 2007 Company Performance Price at 31.12.2006 Change in Buying Price Buying Selling From From Price Price Launch 30.06.05 £ £ % % Shares 1.190 1.185 +19.00 -6.30 Prices are published in the Financial Times in the 'Investment Companies' section, and in the Daily Telegraph's 'Share Prices & Market Capitalisations' section under 'Investment Trusts'. Fund Size Net Asset Net Asset Number of Shares in Value Value per Share Issue £ £ 01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 126,638,547 1.193 * 106,117,074 30.06.2006 126,375,613 1.191 106,117,074 30.06.2005 55,935,077 1.119 50,000,000 * Value reported to the London Stock Exchange was 1.196 using mid market values. Bid prices are presented as fair value in the Financial Statements. Share Price Range Accounting Period to: Highest Shares Lowest Buying Price Selling Price £ £ 01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 1.260 1.165 30.06.2006 1.300 1.120 30.06.2005 1.140 1.000 Net Asset Value Range Accounting Period to: Highest Shares Lowest NAV NAV £ £ 01.07.2006 to 31.12.2006 1.209 1.173 30.06.2006 1.234 0.122 30.06.2005 1.122 0.976 Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of the shares and the income from them can go down as well as go up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Because of this, you are not certain to make a profit on your investment and you may lose money. Top Ten Holdings Stock name Currency Holding at Market % of 31.12.06 Value Total Net £ Assets Treasury 4% 07/03/2009 GBP 11,300,000 11,030,947 8.71 Austria 3% 21/08/2009 CHF 24,750,000 10,499,433 8.29 Switzerland (Govt.) 3 1/2% CHF 16,800,000 8,332,869 6.58 08/04/2033 Treasury 5 3/4% 07/12/2009 GBP 7,250,000 7,366,747 5.82 Treasury 4 3/4% 07/06/2010 GBP 7,000,000 6,922,230 5.46 Norway 5 1/2% 15/05/2009 NOK 80,000,000 6,724,492 5.31 Switzerland (Govt.) 4% 08/04/2028 CHF 12,240,000 6,340,062 5.01 Norway 6% 16/05/20011 NOK 70,000,000 6,104,513 4.82 Switzerland (Govt.) 1 3/4% CHF 6,400,000 3,773,358 2.96 05/11/2009 Treasury 2 1/2% Index Linked GBP 1,500,000 4,053,915 3.20 23/08/2011 Balance Sheet 31.12.06 31.12.05 30.06.06 £ £ £ ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents 192,784 6,479,022 6,190,457 Receivables 1,257,005 1,521,101 1,483,682 Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 125,654,273 120,241,000 119,449,349 Total Assets 127,104,062 128,241,123 127,123,488 EQUITY Capital and reserves attributable to the Company's shareholders Management share capital 2 2 2 Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares 126,638,547 127,717,620 126,375,613 Total Equity 126,638,549 127,717,622 126,375,615 LIABILITIES Payables 465,513 523,501 747,873 Total Liabilities 465,513 523,501 747,873 Total Equity and Liabilities 127,104,062 128,241,123 127,123,488 Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares (per share) 1.193 1.204 1.191 Statement of Operations Revenue Capital 01.07.06 to 01.06.05 to 31.12.06 31.12.05 Total Total £ £ £ £ Bank interest income 10,524 - 10,524 289,094 Fixed interest income 1,538,105 - 1,538,105 880,228 Dividend income 186,912 - 186,912 271,069 Net gains on financial assets at fair value through profit or loss - 472,446 472,446 5,143,834 Other (losses)/gains - (464,760) (464,760) 109,785 Total investment income 1,735,541 7,686 1,743,227 6,694,010 Management fees (159,045) (477,136) (636,181) (465,438) Expenses (209,037) (79,370) (288,407) (600,417) Total operating expenses (368,082) (556,506) (924,588) (1,065,855) Operating profit before taxation 1,367,459 (548,820) 818,639 5,628,155 Withholding tax (25,120) - (25,120) (32,074) Operating profit after taxation and increase in net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares 1,342,339 (548,820) 793,519 5,596,081 Earnings per share* 1.27p (0.52)p 0.75p 7.11p *Earnings per share is based on the weighted average number of redeemable participating preference shares. The weighted average number of shares for the period is 106,117,074. Statement of Changes in Equity 01.07.06 to 01.07.05 to 31.12.06 31.12.05 £ £ Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares at the start of the period 126,375,613 55,935,077 Movement due to issue and redemptions of shares: Proceeds from redeemable participating preference shares issued - 66,436,462 Redemption of redeemable participating preference - - shares Net increase from share transactions - 66,436,462 Increase in net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares from operations 793,519 5,596,081 Distributions to holders of redeemable participating preference shares (530,585) (250,000) Increase in net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares from operations (after distributions) 262,934 5,346,081 Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares at the end of the period 126,638,547 127,717,620 Cash Flow Statement 01.07.05 to 01.07.05 to 31.12.05 31.12.05 £ £ Cash flows from operating activities Purchase of financial assets and settlement of financial liabilities (20,530,102) (64,319,257) Proceeds from sale of investments (including realised gains) 15,371,477 4,783,621 Amount paid to brokers (81,792) (91,323) Bank interest received 36,076 225,362 Fixed interest income received 1,170,276 184,246 Dividends received 183,245 184,193 Withholding tax (25,120) (32,074) Operating expenses paid (1,126,388) (562,402) -------- --------- Net cash utilised in operating activities (5,002,328) (59,627,634) -------- --------- Cash flows from financing activities Dividends paid (530,585) (250,000) Proceeds from issue of 'C' shares - 67,500,000 Issue expenses relating to issue of 'C' shares - (1,252,670) -------- --------- Net cash flow from financing activities (530,585) 65,997,330 -------- --------- Net (decrease)/increase in cash and cash equivalents (5,532,913) 6,369,696 Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 6,190,457 138,396 Exchange losses on cash and cash equivalents (464,760) (29,070) -------- --------- Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 192,784 6,479,022 -------- --------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange FBBB
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