Annual Report and Accounts

Ruffer Investment Company Limited 24 February 2005 RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED PRELIMINARY PROFITS ANNOUNCEMENT For the period ended 31st December 2004 Investment Objective The principal objective of the Company is to achieve a total annual return, after all expenses, of at least twice the Bank of England base rate (4.75 per cent. as at 31 December 2004) by investing in internationally listed or quoted equities or equity related securities (including convertibles) or bonds which are issued by corporate issuers, supra-nationals or government organisations. Investment Review From the launch date on 8 July 2004 to 31 December 2004 the NAV rose 8.9% (net of fees and expenses), compared to the FTSE All Share Index which rose 11.9% and the Government All Stocks Index which rose 5.5%. This investment review is divided into two parts. The first sets out why we believe that we are in danger of entering a financial crisis, and the second part of the report sets out what we are doing about it. The economic statistics emerging from world economies at the end of 2004 are unexceptional and largely benign. The US has completed its fifty second consecutive quarter of annualised economic growth, up 3.2% last year, and much the same is expected in 2005. The stock markets have made solid progress, and are not looking obviously expensive; interest rates are in Goldilocks territory and inflation is steady at lowish levels. Those who are on the qui vive for the onset of bad news will not find it amongst these statistics. Nevertheless we are concerned that there is an exogenous factor which could prove destructive. Many pay lip service to the large trade deficit which the United States enjoys - if that is the appropriate word. The danger is manifest more in the precarious nature of the imbalances which have created it rather than in the deficit itself. Deficits can be matched by capital inflows, and there is clear evidence that the Far Eastern trading nations, China in particular, regard their surfeit of dollars as the equivalent of red cabbage, the value of which is a second order issue compared with the need to keep the 20 million urban refugees from the countryside in employment. The real issue is why the American populace are able to spend so much more than they earn, and to do so without any sense of the enormity of what they are doing to the futures of their own, and their children's, balance sheets. Maynard Keynes believed that monetary disorder allowed a nation to postpone and cover up 'what may be almost unendurable facts - that people struggle to maintain their previous standards by living off their capital, and the whole apparatus of monetary unsoundness stops them recognising what they are doing'. That is exactly the case in America today. As asset prices rise, it is possible to borrow money, spend it on day to day living, and still to feel richer, because the increase in the value of the property has exceeded the borrowing. Since the overspend - and the borrowing - is a chronic problem, not an acute one, the veil is not removed until asset prices stop going up - they do not even need to fall. No one wishes to precipitate a crisis, and so, of course, it can continue for a long time. This impasse, which, emphatically, could last for the whole of 2005 and beyond, will end in one of two ways. Either the American authorities will revert to sound principles, and this will certainly generate a deep recession as the consumer retrenches and asset values equilibriate (that's a jolly word for dropping). The alternative is that the currency will take the strain. We believe that Greenspan and his successors will take the easier course, and allow the dollar to fall - and that fall could be precipitate. Will these grim truths become apparent in the very near future? Certainly! Could the world muddle through for a long time with no apparent crisis? Certainly! Could this analysis be quite wrong, and the imbalances prove to be as sustainable as New York's problems in 1975 and Mexico's in 1982? Certainly! We have tried to create a balance of assets within the investment trust which will bring about a decent return whichever of these comes about. What are these assets? The biggest position is in short dated gilts - 38% or so. It should be observed that the performance of the fund has been achieved with almost half its value in either cash or these cash-equivalent counters. The most interesting part of the portfolio is in the Swiss Franc, either in long bonds (almost 25% of the fund) or in Swisscom. The other bets that we have taken have been in oil (this was particularly good in the Autumn, less so more recently); the same could be said of gold and Japan. The saving grace of the latter has been a strong performance in Japan Tobacco. The remainder of the portfolio represents individual stock specific situations which owe more to their individual situations than the macro picture. Ruffer LLP 7 February 2005 Profit and Loss Account For the period from 8 July 2004 to 31 December 2004 08.07.04 to 31.12.04 Revenue Capital Total £ £ £ Interest income 675,749 - 675,749 Dividend income 216,378 - 216,378 Net gains on financial assets at - 3,679,257 3,679,257 fair value through profit or loss Other gains 12,344 - 12,344 Total investment income 904,471 3,679,257 4,583,728 Management fees (64,761) (194,285) (259,046) Expenses (482,214) - (482,214) Total operating expenses (546,975) (194,285) (741,260) Operating profit before taxation 357,496 3,484,972 3,842,468 Withholding tax (18,201) - (18,201) Increase in net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares from operations (after taxation) 339,295 3,484,972 3,824,267 Earnings per share * 0.68p 6.97p 7.65p *Earnings per share is based on the weighted average number of redeemable participating preference shares. There being no change in the number of shares in issue during the period, the weighted average number of shares for the period is 50,000,000. Statement of changes in net assets attributable to holders of redeemable participating preference shares For the period from 8 July 2004 to 31 December 2004 08.07.04 to 31.12.04 £ Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable - participating preference shares at the start of the period Movement due to issues and redemptions of shares 49,350,000 Proceeds from redeemable participating preference shares issued Net increase from share transactions 49,350,000 Increase in net assets attributable to holders of 3,824,267 redeemable participating preference shares from operations Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable 53,174,267 participating preference shares at the end of the period Balance Sheet As at 31 December 2004 31.12.04 £ ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents 859,956 Receivables 588,384 Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 52,026,929 Total Assets 53,475,269 EQUITY Capital and reserves attributable to the Company's shareholders Management share capital 2 Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable 53,174,267 participating preference shares Total Equity 53,174,269 LIABILITIES Payables 301,000 Total Liabilities 301,000 Total Equity and Liabilities 53,475,269 Net assets attributable to holders of redeemable 1.063 participating preference shares (per share) Cash Flow Statement For the period from 8 July 2004 to 31 December 2004 08.07.04 to 31.12.04 £ Cash flows from operating activities Purchase of financial assets and settlement of financial (56,514,371) liabilities Proceeds from sale of investments (including realised gains) 8,245,668 Amount paid to brokers (78,969) Dividends received 161,965 Interest received 189,387 Withholding tax (18,201) Operating expenses paid (456,966) Net cash utilised in operating activities (48,471,487) Cash flows from financing activities Proceeds from issue of redeemable participating preference shares 50,000,000 Issue expenses relating to issue of redeemable participating preference shares (650,000) Net cash flow from financing activities 49,350,000 Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 878,513 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period - Exchange losses on cash and cash equivalents (18,557) Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 859,956 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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