Open Briefing

Roc Oil Company Limited 21 March 2005 Roc Oil Company Limited Level 14 Market St Sydney NSW 2000 Date of lodgement: 21-Mar-2005 Title: Open Briefing. Roc Oil. Production & Reserves Outlook Record of interview: corporatefile.com.au Roc Oil Company Limited recently announced the Final Investment Decision for the Cliff Head Oil Field (ROC 37.5% and Operator), offshore Perth Basin, Western Australia. How do you rank Cliff Head amongst your projects in terms of ROC's future growth? CEO John Doran It's one of several projects we're progressing. It's part of our conveyor belt approach to portfolio management. ROC's net interest in Cliff Head's forecast early production (4,000 BOPD), capital costs (A$85 million) and recoverable reserves (5.25 MMBO) are, very broadly speaking, comparable to the Company's net interests in the combined production, capex and reserves of the Blane and Enoch Fields in the North Sea, both of which are at the pre-development stage with the possibility that they will be on stream during the second half of 2006. In similar, net ROC terms, early production from the Chinguetti Field, offshore Mauritania (2,400 BOPD), is expected to be about 60% of ROC's net share of production from Cliff Head. Analysts estimate that Cliff Head is generally thought to represent about 15% to 25% of ROC's A$350 million market capitalization. While Cliff Head doesn't totally overshadow our other assets in terms of production, development cost and reserve size net to ROC, it's still a vital project for the Company, particularly because it's operated by ROC. corporatefile.com.au You now have several projects in the development stage or pre-development stage. Can you outline a possible production profile by project? CEO John Doran Generally, production forecasts made before production begins are easy to get wrong. That's why we're hesitant about providing detailed forecasts; we don't want to inadvertently over-promise and under-deliver. However, both the Chinguetti and Cliff Head fields are now at the stage where it will be disappointing if, by this time next year, their combined production wasn't headed towards 6,500 BOPD net to ROC. If the current redevelopment of the Ardmore Field in the UK North Sea is successful, ROC would expect to exercise its option to acquire up to 26% of that field. Then you might add 3,000 BOPD or more to our net production from Cliff Head and Chinguetti. That would bring company-wide production close to 10,000 BOPD. There is no guarantee, however, that the Ardmore redevelopment will be successful, therefore, we shouldn't put too much weight on that high-end company-wide number. Blane and Enoch could be coming on stream six or nine months after Cliff Head and Chinguetti. That's one of the good thing about our conveyor belt approach to portfolio management. Blane and Enoch could boost ROC's net company-wide production by a further 3,000 BOPD offsetting any initial production decline at Cliff Head and Chinguetti. Our Wei-12-8 West Field in the Beibu Gulf could be coming onto production in 2007, several months after Blane and Enoch come on stream, subject to what happens during the next few months in China. This is a small field (around 7 - 10 MMBO) but, as a general guide, ROC's net early production from its first potential field development in China should be not too far behind its net early production from Chinguetti. However, first we need to advance the pre-development discussions to a firm development commitment. corporatefile.com.au Chinguetti and Cliff Head are now being developed. Which of ROC's remaining projects do you think have the best chance of proceeding to development? CEO John Doran With Ardmore currently producing about 6,500 BOPD it would seem to stand a reasonable chance of being further developed, but its future as a robust oil producer is by no means assured and we won't have a definite view for several months. We would be somewhat surprised if the Wei-12-8 West Field didn't proceed to production. China has an enormous thirst for oil and one of the State oil companies is actively considering the development of other accumulations in areas adjacent to our field. Indeed, we're in active discussions with the relevant Government authorities in China with regard to this potential development which could also open up the way for the development of other fields in our block. Everybody seems to believe that the Tiof Field in Mauritania will be developed. We share that view. However, we're not quite as clear-cut as to when that development will happen. We don't think it's going to be soon, probably not before late 2008. We don't think it will be particularly easy. The field covers a large area, arguably, of up to 70 sq km and it is sedimentologically complex. The modest sized oil discovery at Tevet, near the Chinguetti Field, also stands a good chance of being developed as a satellite to that field. The fate of the nearby Banda Gas Field will be decided by much broader considerations relating to Mauritania's gas strategy. This seems to be on a bit of a roll at the moment. We're fully supportive of any commercial gas development. The Blane and Enoch Fields in the UK North Sea are benefiting from having a more focussed operator and more cohesive joint venture. These fields could well be on production by the end of next year. Having said all that, I would emphasise one key point: if the oil price falls below US$30/BBL for any significant period of time most of the above bets will be under review, except for those fields which are currently being developed - Chinguetti and Cliff Head. corporatefile.com.au With this sensitivity to oil prices, can you give your view of future oil prices and, if possible, provide details of ROC's approach to oil price hedging? CEO John Doran Generally, ROC has taken a conservative view of oil prices. We like to think that we still do. We said last year that we think we're in a price upswing that could last much longer than people would have expected a year or two ago. Arguably, the downturn in the oil price during the '80s and '90s, lasted for 10 or 15 years; there is no reason why the so-called high oil prices (above US$30/ BBL) wouldn't prevail for several to many years into the future. The worry is that, once a public and industry consensus forms, the oil price has a cantankerous habit of heading off in the opposite direction. At the moment though, it's easier to envisage a small incident in the Middle East sending the oil price to some point north of US$60/BBL than to imagine oil prices consistently below US$30/BBL any time soon. We're currently finalising the details of our oil price risk management strategy. We will look very closely at locking in an appropriate price to cover part of our cost exposure to the Chinguetti and/or Cliff Head developments. As we go through this thought process we're mindful of the need to ensure that shareholders should also have adequate exposure to higher oil prices. We would hate to have a lot of our production locked in at, say, US$40/BBL if oil was being sold for US$70/BBL. Equally, if the oil price fell towards US$30/BBL we wouldn't want to be overexposed to that descent. The end product will be a prudently balanced oil price risk mitigation arrangement that will protect much of the downside that exists below current forward curve prices and also provide shareholders with a continuing exposure to some of the upside. corporatefile.com.au What are ROC's current oil reserves by project and also the oil-in-place estimates for the less advanced projects? CEO John Doran When looked at individually, none of the fields that ROC is involved with on a pre-development or development basis are large by world standards. Collectively, however, they are very relevant to ROC. Most of the fields we have referred to in this conversation have net ROC proved and probable recoverable reserves in the range of 4 to 6 MMBO - with the Blane and Enoch Fields being considered as a single entity for this purpose. In-place oil estimates don't count. It's the black stuff you can pull out that is important. Tiof may well have half a billion to a billion barrels of oil in place but it will depend on how much of it we can get out. Our Wei 12-8-East Field in China would seem to have more oil in place than Cliff Head but its higher viscosity clouds its development potential. corporatefile.com.au You've mentioned that you're hopeful of adding to reserves at Cliff Head by exploring and appraising areas close to the platform. Can you give more detail on your plans and expectations? What opportunities are there to increase the size of ROC's other projects? CEO John Doran Near Ardmore, in the North Sea, there are a number of known accumulations and some exploration prospects, that can be reached from the drilling platform which is currently being used as a production facility. The same will be true at Cliff Head - at least with respect to the exploration and appraisal potential of the immediately surrounding area. In neither case do we want to over-egg the upside potential. It's yet to be proven. It may not happen. Directionally, however, it might well be possible to cost efficiently increase Cliff Head's recoverable reserves by 25% to 50% if the three nearby areas, which are believed to represent the near term upside potential, deliver the right results. Testing this upside potential will be all the more attractive once the platform and other infrastructure are established in the area. corporatefile.com.au In February 2005, ROC announced that during the balance of 2005 it expects to drill up to 34 wells, 12 (35%) of which will be operated by the Company. These include development wells. The anticipated net cost to ROC of the total programme is in the order of A$50 million. Which are the most significant exploration wells in terms of potential reward? When will you be drilling these? CEO John Doran ROC's exploration drilling potential could be one of the invisible value drivers of the Company. The 'invisible' label mainly reflects the fact that we tend not to ramp up our exploration wells before they are drilled on the basis that, by definition, each exploration well drilled has a less than 50% chance of being successful. As such, any single well is more likely to be dry than a discovery. However, during 2005 ROC has a number of exploration wells lined up that could have a very positive impact on the Company - if they turn out to be a discovery rather than dry! Included in this category is the Hadda-1 exploration well that is being drilled at the moment in the northern part of the offshore Perth Basin and the deepwater exploration well that ROC will drill offshore Equatorial Guinea in the second half of this year. A commercial discovery at either location would change ROC. If we drill Willows-1 in the UK that could also be another high impact well. We also hope to drill an exploration well in China this year and, although the individual target is not large, it's near our 2002 oil discovery so if it proves to be successful it would open up a very neat little cluster of 3-D seismically-defined fields and prospects near infrastructure. At the same time, if all goes well in the southern part of that Block, we will be working with the Chinese authorities to develop the, quite separate, Wei-12-8 West Field. Within the year we expect to be back in the northern part of the offshore Perth Basin for Flying Foam-1 while offshore Mauritania, ROC will, once again, participate in a number of exploration wells. Apart from its diversity and potential, one of the good things about ROC's aggressive 2005 drilling programme is that the Company is well able to fund it from internal sources. corporatefile.com.au ROC built its current strong balance sheet from the operating cash flow and proceeds from the sale of the Saltfleetby Gas Field. Do you expect to find another Saltfleetby, onshore UK? CEO John Doran Not really; but it's possible. We hope to drill an exploration well, Willows-1, later this year that could certainly deliver a field of Saltfleetby's size. On balance, the onshore UK hasn't lived up to the expectations that were, understandably, generated by having a field like Saltfleetby in the middle of an area which was then barely explored. We will review the tight gas potential of a couple of the onshore UK wells which we already have under our corporate belt at Errington-1 and Cloughton-1. We don't want to over hype this tight gas strategy because it's still at an early stage. Things may change but, at the moment, if we had to put a bet down on the most likely activity for 2005 the money would probably land on a tight gas frac stimulation at Cloughton towards the end of the year. corporatefile.com.au What is ROC's current cash balance and can you summarise your known expenditure commitments? CEO John Doran ROC went into 2005 with A$205 million in cash and receivables and no debt. That's on a pro forma basis, of course, because the proceeds of the sale of the Saltfleetby Gas Field and of a Placement of 10 million shares at a premium to market, were not received until January 2005. Since then we've been happily funding our various commitments including the pre-development activities at Cliff Head and the development of Chinguetti. If we chose not to use project related debt, or a logical corporate debt facility, we could still develop Chinguetti and Cliff Head and fund our aggressive 2005 exploration programme from our current cash reserve. In all probability, however, we will fund part of our developments from a debt facility, be it corporate or project based. corporatefile.com.au While this Open Briefing has been focussed on ROC's various specific projects can you tell us how and where they all fit within the Company's overall strategy? CEO John Doran ROC's strategy hasn't changed since Day One. We're continuing to serve up and mature a conveyor belt of projects ranging from new ventures and exploration to development and, soon, significant production. It's a fundamental organic growth strategy. An integral part of this strategy is to manage our portfolio by monetising mature assets if the price offered is very compelling. That's what happened at Saltfleetby. Our strategy continues to be 'sensibly contrary'. Rarely do we attend industry data room auctions because we don't like open cheque book competition. The deals we review are usually sourced from personal contacts through our industry network. They are generally characterised by low entry costs, often via an option arrangement, into an area that has a lot of untested upside potential. In some cases the area is barely explored, like the offshore Perth Basin or, in the case of onshore Angola, it has been totally unexplored for more than 30 years. Fiscal terms are always attractive and government relations always good. In almost all cases there will be a confirmed petroleum system present, often a prolific one. Being an international operating company is an important part of ROC's overall strategy. We've always believed that being an operator not only allows the Company to influence its destiny more than would otherwise be the case, but it also provides the Company with an additional currency in terms of transactions. Being an international operator can be a challenging strategy and one which demands a larger and more diverse workforce than would otherwise be the case but, in ROC's opinion, the benefits are well worth the effort. An important aspect of the particular niche we have been working relates to large international companies which operate international assets that have become immaterial to them but which they cannot simply walk away from because they often have much more material interests elsewhere in the same country and an important relationship with the host government which they don't want to disrupt. This means that they need a good operator to whom they can transfer the assets. I don't just mean a company that can rush in and drill a well and then rush out, but a company with an established operating culture and a good health, safety, environmental and community record. Any of the big companies could operate such assets but, usually, they will face the same materiality problem as the company that wants to divest. Most small companies would consider the relevant assets to be material but few would have the necessary operating capability. That's the gap we would like to think ROC could fill. That's exactly how we got into onshore Angola and, with some variation on the big company aspect of that theme, a basically similar strategy got ROC got into most of our other areas. ROC will consider buying assets. That's what we did at Ardmore. This is consistent with the Change-the-Company strategy which was first articulated several years ago and which parallels our 'Organic Growth' strategy. The 'C-t-C' strategy is a long term strategy that will be implemented once we identify a substantial asset acquisition opportunity, probably one that is under development or in production, rather than one of a corporate nature. corporatefile.com.au Thank you John. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To read other Open Briefings, or to receive future Open Briefings by email, please visit www.corporatefile.com.au DISCLAIMER: Corporate File Pty Ltd has taken reasonable care in publishing the information contained in this Open Briefing. It is information given in a summary form and does not purport to be complete. The information contained is not intended to be used as the basis for making any investment decision and you are solely responsible for any use you choose to make of the information. We strongly advise that you seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Corporate File Pty Ltd is not responsible for any consequences of the use you make of the information, including any loss or damage you or a third party might suffer as a result of that use. For further information please contact: Dr John Doran on Tel: +61-2-8356-2000 Fax: +61-2-9380-2635 Email: jdoran@rocoil.com.au Or visit ROC's website: www.rocoil.com.au Dr Kevin Hird General Manager Business Development Tel: +44 (0)207 586 7935 Fax: +44 (0)207 722 3919 Email: khird@rocoil.com.au Nick Lambert Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial Tel: +44 (0)207 861 3232 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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