CEO & Chairmans AGM Addresses

Roc Oil Company Limited 11 May 2005 ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING - CHAIRMAN'S ADDRESS Museum of Sydney, Sydney Wednesday 11 May 2005 1. INTRODUCTION Ladies and Gentlemen, Slide 1 - ROC Logo* Once again, I would like to welcome you to ROC's Annual General Meeting ('AGM'): the Company's sixth as a publicly-listed company. Slide 2 - Chairman's Address Many of you are familiar with the format for these meetings. The formal part of the meeting is immediately followed by a presentation by our Chief Executive Officer, Dr John Doran, together with some of his Senior Management colleagues. We aim to finish that part of the proceedings by about 12.30pm after which John will give a five minute key note address prior to shareholders being invited to ask questions and then join us for an informal sandwich lunch. Slide 3 - Key Points Consistent with previous AGMs, my address will focus on matters which relate specifically to the Company and its activities and also to the general global oil and gas industry. At the end of my address, we will move to consider the formal resolutions as advised to you in your Notice of Meeting. For my address I would like to focus on four key points: • Oil price trends; • Forward oil sale strategy; • Market climate; • Investor Relations. 2. OIL PRICE TRENDS Slide 4 - Oil Price Trends Just before last year's AGM oil prices hit US$41/bbl for West Texas Intermediate ('WTI') crude. That was a 13 1/2 year high. Clearly, a year is a very long time in the oil business. Since the last AGM West Texas Intermediate crude oil has ranged as high as US$58/bbl although, at the moment the price is 'only' about US$50/bbl. I never thought I would stand in front of ROC shareholders and use the word 'only' in that context. At last year's meeting I commented that neither ROC, nor any other oil company, knew where the oil price was going to go in the future and that the 'bulls and bears which prowl the oil price landscape seem to have equally compelling arguments'. It is now quite clear that for the last 12 months the bulls have been in the ascendancy. ROC and other oil companies are still no wiser as to where the oil price is likely to go in the next 12 months. However, today it is easier to envisage the price spiking above US$60/bbl in response to one or more specific incidences, possibly in the Middle East, rather than falling below US$30/bbl for a prolonged period. One can only speculate as to whether the recent prediction of a major US investment bank of an oil price spike to US$100/bbl will be realised. This situation stands in stark contrast to my comments at last year's meeting when I confirmed that ROC was using a US$20/bbl WTI price as the benchmark for future field developments. Events during the last 12 months have shown that this view was overly conservative. Now, when ROC looks at new field developments, provided that they are within a year of completion, we generally follow the near term part of the forward curve and then drop the forecast per barrel price back into the high US$20s. This is not necessarily because we believe that that is where the oil price will trend, but because ROC believes it is better to be conservative when planning new field developments and this is the approach ROC continues to apply to its various projects. 3. FORWARD OIL SALE STRATEGY Slide 5 - Forward Oil Sale Strategy For reasons that are not obvious, it seems that the forward oil price hedging strategies of small and mid-cap oil companies are not always laid out in a plain and clear manner that allows shareholders to readily understand what their company is doing in that regard. In this part of my address, I hope to ensure that ROC's forward sale strategy is very plainly conveyed so that it can be clearly understood by all shareholders. The first thing to emphasise is that ROC's forward sale strategy reflects its view of the oil price. Our strategy is to give shareholders a sensibly balanced exposure to oil price upside while, at the same time, ensuring that the Company is appropriately protected should the oil price collapse. We have sought to achieve this in two ways: Slide 6 - Swaps • Swaps. Firstly, as advised in our recently released Quarterly Report, ROC has entered into a swap agreement with BP. Through this arrangement for the 21 month period from March 2006 to December 2007, ROC has nominated 909,000 barrels at a price of US$49.58/bbl Brent. In plain English, what this really means is that during most of 2006 and all of 2007, ROC will be guaranteed a sale price just shy of US$50/bbl for almost a million barrels of oil. This represents less than 25% of the Company's anticipated combined production for that period from the Cliff Head and Chinguetti oil fields. If, by the time of sale, the Brent oil price has dropped below US$50/bbl, ROC will still receive the price established by the swap arrangement. In essence the 'swap' allows us to lock in this price for this quantity and period. However, because the swap only covers a relatively small portion of the Company's anticipated production, ROC and its shareholders should fervently hope that when the time comes to make the swap, oil will be trading at prices above US$50/bbl. If that happens and the swaps are 'out of the money' we will all be delighted because the majority of the Company's production will then be sold at even higher prices. In this sense, every time you forward sell a minority portion of your future production you earnestly hope that it will prove to be an overly conservative move. However, in the past, locking in a price of almost US$50/bbl Brent would rarely have been viewed as being overly conservative! Slide 7 - Put Option • Put Option. Subsequent to the release of the latest Quarterly Report, ROC has entered into a Put Option arrangement with regard to 200,000 barrels of oil for the 10 month period between March and December 2006. The price of the Put Option is US$40/bbl and the cost of the option is US$1.84/bbl. Again, in plain English, the second leg of our strategy is to partially cover the downside in the event of a price collapse. What this really means is that during the last 10 months of 2006 ROC will have the entitlement but, importantly, not the obligation, to sell 200,000 barrels of its oil for US$40/bbl, no matter what price oil is selling for on the spot market at that time. Obviously, if the spot oil price is below US$40/bbl ROC would exercise its Put Option and the 200,000 barrels would be effectively sold at US$40/bbl. If, however, the oil price is above $40/bbl, ROC will have the freedom to leave the option lapse and sell those barrels into the spot market, thereby, realising a price that will, by definition, be higher than US$40/bbl. In this sense, those 200,000 barrels of oil remain totally exposed to high oil price upside but there is a clear limit on their oil price downside as defined by the US$40/bbl floor price established by the Put Option. Again, the Put Option arrangement relates only to a small amount of ROC's anticipated production during the relevant 10 month period: about 10%. Hopefully, the foregoing comments give you a clear picture of what ROC is doing with regard to forward selling the oil that we expect to produce from the Chinguetti and Cliff Head oil fields starting in 2006. In a nutshell: we are effectively forward selling 1.1 million barrels, a relatively modest part of ROC's anticipated production, at what we perceive to be good prices. We are, however, still maintaining exposure to the spot market for the majority of the Company's production. 4. MARKET CLIMATE Slide 8 - Market Climate At last year's AGM it was pointed out that ROC's share price had risen by 22% since the previous AGM in 2003. Since the 2004 AGM ROC's share price has risen by as much as a further 40% and it currently stands about 20% higher than this time last year. The general strengthening of ROC's share price during the year largely reflects a continuing positive sector sentiment fuelled by a rising oil price - which is much the same story as the previous year. When a commodity is 'hot' the relevant market sector will, sooner or later, move up. Oil has become a hot commodity. Therefore, not surprisingly, the oil and gas sector has surged. That is why energy indices and the share price of individual oil and gas companies in various parts of the world have risen significantly, sometimes spectacularly. In ROC's case this upward trend is readily identified as starting in mid-2003. Since then, ROC's share price has risen by as much as 90%, notwithstanding a large Rights Issue in April 2004 at A$1.40/share. Today the ROC share price is 24% above the Rights Issue price and more than 60% above its May 2003 low. As a result of the Rights Issue and the strengthening share price, ROC's market capitalisation has increased by approximately A$200 million (more than 150%) to more than A$300 million during the last two years. In previous market climates such increases in market capitalisation and share price would have been considered satisfactory, even quite good. However, when this performance is compared to what has been happening recently in other parts of the oil sector, particularly on the Alternative Investment Market ('AIM') in London, the increases are probably best described as 'ordinary'. In April 2005, a leading independent broker in London stated that ROC was trading at a discount of 33% to Net Asset Value. The broker's report went on to state that 'this must make ROC one of the best value stocks in the sector at the present time' - and that was when the share price was in the A$1.80 - A$1.90 range during the first part of April 2005. Australia has also seen a recent proliferation of oil companies. Twelve years ago there were 16 publicly-listed upstream oil companies in Australia with a market capitalisation in excess of US$10 million. Today all but four of those companies are gone; mainly taken over, often by overseas corporate predators. However, today there are more than 70 publicly-listed oil and gas companies on ASX - a compelling testimony to the fertile environment provided by the combination of a rising oil price and a booming stock market. As shareholders in ROC, it will come as no surprise to you that your Company takes a fairly sceptical view of current market trends. It has all happened before, particularly in Australia which has some interesting experiences with resource booms. All such booms contain their fair share of froth. Slide 9 - The frothy bits are always first to go Usually it's the frothy bits that go first when the boom starts to recede. In the last few weeks we may have glimpsed the early signs of a cooling market. Fortunately, there are a number of solid companies with real assets contained within this present oil market boom in Australia. Not surprisingly, we would suggest ROC is one of them. With its combination of cash and solid assets ROC should do well in a continuing strong market and be relatively - but, obviously, not entirely - insulated from the impact of a cooling market. 5. INVESTOR RELATIONS Slide 10 - Investor Relations One thing that ROC could have done better during the year relates to its Investor Relations programme. Quite simply, we recognise that in prior years we used to put more time into telling the story to current shareholders or potential new investors. The Board and Senior Management Team at ROC have discussed this matter in some detail and we all acknowledge that a large part of the challenge has been that management has been very much focussed on building the business. Primarily, of course, that is what they are paid to do and we don't intend to lessen this focus. What we do intend to do is to implement a more structured Investor Relations programme in order to increase the likelihood that, as the Company moves towards a significant upswing in production and continues to mature its exploration projects, the progress that these developments represent will be accurately recognised and reflected in the share price. As an aside, I would highlight the fact that we shouldn't confuse relating to investors with communicating to the market. If anybody looks at the frequency, tone and content of ROC's Stock Exchange releases it quickly becomes clear that ROC continually strives to speak plainly, candidly and often about the good and the bad aspects of its various activities. And that, Ladies and Gentlemen, would probably be a good lead into the formal part of the meeting where we will consider the four resolutions detailed in the Notice of Meeting distributed to you last month. 6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Slide 11 - Staff Collage However, just before we move onto those Agenda items, I would very much like to thank all of ROC's staff - not just the managers and senior executives, but everyone in the world wide workforce - for another 12 months of extremely hard work and dedicated effort. Perhaps, one of the many points which my fellow Directors and I see which should be highlighted to shareholders is the continuing well balanced attitude of management towards very carefully managing the Company's resources as if the Company's cash position was less than robust and the oil price was around US$20/ bbl. That's a healthy attitude. Members of the Senior Management Team at ROC have been in the oil business long enough to have accumulated sufficient scar tissue for them to realise that relatively large bank balances and positive sector sentiment simply represent a moment in corporate time and that both need to be very carefully and cost-consciously managed regardless of booming markets and rampant product prices. Andrew J. Love Chairman Wednesday 11 May 2005 ________________________________________________________________________________ ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER'S ADDRESS: OVERVIEW Museum of Sydney, Sydney Wednesday 11 May 2005 Slide 1 - Logo As always, it is a pleasure and a privilege to present at this meeting. It is almost like a once a year family gathering. Slide 2 - CEO's Report Over the last six years we have done our best to ensure that you don't just hear from the Chairman and myself, but also from other senior managers - and as Andrew mentioned we intend to continue the format again this year. We always try to adhere to a constrained timeframe lest we test your patience as lunchtime looms. However, this year may be a little different. Firstly, we actually believe we will meet the self imposed deadline of 12:30pm for the end of the main part of the proceedings. Secondly, after the senior managers have made their presentations, I will deliver a five minute key note presentation prior to a 90 second video before question time. On this basis we should be eating by no later than 12.45pm - depending on the number of questions. 1. EXPLORATION Slide 3 - Exploration Wes Jamieson, ROC's General Manger-Exploration will be the first senior manager to present after my introductory remarks, Wes will talk to you about what ROC has done - and what it plans to do - in the realms of exploration and appraisal. As we tried to make clear in the Annual Report: 2004 was not a good year for ROC as far as exploration drilling was concerned. That is a fact and it needs to be plainly stated. Let me assure you that we don't blame Wes. It's a joint responsibility and, we would like to think, just a moment in time. The way we look at it is that if our exploration record was being tried in a court of law, the most recent session went badly for the Company. Fortunately, the balance of evidence presented during the course of the entire trial continues to fall in the Company's favour. Since ROC became a public company, it has drilled 29 exploration wells of which eight (28% or 1 in 3.6) have been successful. Please note that 'success' is defined as a commercial, potentially commercial and/or a regionally significant discovery. Two (25%) of those eight exploration successes are now subject to commercial development: both in areas where oil had not been found before - offshore Mauritania and the offshore Perth Basin. ROC's main problem remains unchanged from last year: we haven't found enough oil in the right places. It really is that simple. Our overall drilling statistics are satisfactory but the bigger fields that we have found happen to be in areas where we have small equities while, in the areas where we have bigger equities, the fields we have discovered, so far, appear to be small. ROC is yet to find a legacy asset. It has found an oil field with a reasonable amount of recoverable reserves at Chinguetti and also an oil field with a large amount of in-place oil at Tiof. But, in both these fields ROC has a small equity position. The Company has also found a much smaller field at Cliff Head in an area where it has a large equity. You can see where the obvious challenge lies: to find a big field in an area where ROC has a big equity position. That's all that is required! We have been aware of this problem for a year and we are in the process of fixing it. During the next two years we expect to drill big targets in areas where we have sizable equities: deep water Equatorial Guinea, onshore Angola, onshore UK, offshore Perth Basin, onshore New Zealand and, Slide 4 - WA351P Map as of today's announcement, in a BHP Petroleum-operated deep water permit in the Carnarvon Basin, offshore Australia, which Wes will refer to in slightly more detail. It should be emphasised that the strategy we are maintaining is decidedly organic and reliant upon future operational success. As such, it is neither an instantaneous nor a guaranteed way of increasing the Company's reserve inventory. However, it is the biggest and arguably, the most exciting, exploration drilling programme in ROC's albeit relatively brief history. 2. OPERATIONS Slide 5 - Operations After Wes has spoken to you, Chris Way our General Manger-Operations will tell you about some of the operations ROC has undertaken during the last 12 months. Chris, together with his team of drilling and reservoir engineers, has been extremely busy: the Company has participated in a total of 24 wells of which ROC operated 5 wells (21%) spread through 3 countries and a wide variety of environments from the Company's first deep water drilling operation, offshore Equatorial Guinea, to drilling virtually beneath Hadrian's Wall on the edge of a World Heritage site in northern England. ROC is evolving into a very serious operating company. That was always one of our goals. So far our operations have been safe and successful - although there is never any room for complacency on either front. 3. HEALTH SAFETY ENVIRONMENT & COMMUNITY ('HSE&C') Slide 6 - HSE&C Which brings us to HSE&C. ROC's spread of operations has required the Company to develop a high level of HSE&C skills. To some, this subject might appear to be somewhat dry and superficially boring, but, I can assure you, that within ROC it is neither of these things - and there are at least three reasons why this is the case. Firstly, if the Company doesn't get this aspect of its activities right then much, maybe all, of what it tries to do in other parts of its business can quickly become irrelevant. Maintaining positive investor perception would be a lot harder if there was a major HSE&C problem. Secondly, HSE&C is really interesting because it involves people: employees, consultants, contractors, stakeholders, landowners, fishermen, whale-watchers and archaeologists. All shapes, all sizes and all creeds. You name it and we've probably dealt with it as part of our HSE&C programme. If there is a third reason why HSE&C is considered to be interesting within ROC it is because it is managed by Neil Seage, ably supported by Don Kratzing who is also a very special HSE&C executive in a class of his own. We will hear from Neil immediately after Chris. 4. DEVELOPMENT AND PRE-DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS Slide 7 - Development & Pre-Development Projects After Neil has spoken, Bruce Clement, our Chief Operating Officer, will give you an overview of Chinguetti and some of the eight other fields which reside within the Company's portfolio in addition to Cliff Head. Some of these fields are not currently the subject of much public focus although some may move into the development stage within the next several months. Sometimes we think that we are so busy running the day-to-day operations that we don't spend enough time drawing the attention of the investment community to this fact. These fields - the next wave of projects heading for ROC's shore - currently represent the future that awaits ROC beyond Cliff Head and Chinguetti. 5. CLIFF HEAD PROJECT Slide 8 - Cliff Head The last senior management presentation will be from Duncan Mitchell, ROC's Project Manager for the Cliff Head Development. As you might imagine, Duncan has had a very interesting time over the last many months as Cliff Head delivered a series of mixed results against an extremely volatile global industry backdrop caused by rising prices and rising costs. As you are aware, the Cliff Head Field emerged from this commercial and technical turbulence bruised, but, commercially, intact, albeit somewhat reduced in size. Hopefully, we have seen Cliff Head's low point. Now, let's hear from our General Manager - Exploration, Wes Jamieson. ________________________________________________________________________________ ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER'S ADDRESS (PartII): 3 KEY POINTS Museum of Sydney, Sydney Wednesday 11 May 2005 I have allocated just 5 minutes for the second part of my CEO's address: the sequel as it were. By deliberately constraining the time in which I have to deliver these comments I am hoping to emphasise their importance. I didn't want to risk loosing their relevance in the midst of a broader, looser commentary. I only want to highlight three points - but they are, I believe, very important points. Slide - ROC: Viewed & Valued as a whole VALUE ROC needs to be viewed and valued in its entirety, not by focussing on its component parts. Investors, not only in Australia but also in Asia and Europe, generally have a perception of ROC that reflects their geographical location. Slide - Globe with Australia & Mauritania In Australia, most shareholders and potential investors, seem to focus on ROC's activities in the offshore Perth Basin, particularly at the Cliff Head Oil Field and, to a lesser extent, offshore Mauritania. Slide - Globe with China In Asia, the investment community appears to be mainly interested in what the Company is doing in China - and what it may do in that country in the future. Slide - Globe with UK & West Africa In London most shareholders and investors think of ROC primarily in terms of its interests in West Africa and, to a lesser extent, the North Sea. Slide - Bucket of money Of course, everyone, everywhere, sees and understands the cash component of the Company quite clearly! Slide - Globe The more accurate view is that ROC is more than the sum of its component parts. ROC is certainly more than just some of its parts! The Company should be viewed and valued in its entirety. That is the message which we will try to communicate more clearly to the investment community between now and the next AGM. Slide - Strategy STRATEGY The second of the three points that I would like to emphasise is that ROC has a clear and carefully considered strategy - and that strategy is not subject to change. It is a strategy which is precisely tuned to the skill set of the Company's workforce and its corporate ambitions. ROC is an international operating company focussed on opportunities that are undervalued and overlooked, the merits of which are not always immediately obvious to other industry participants. 'Sensibly contrary' is how we described this strategy in ROC's 1999 Initial Public Offering Prospectus - and that is how we describe it today. Slide - ROC's Portfolio - First contact/entry date Appropriate opportunities are generally identified through ROC's network of individual contacts within the industry and investment communities. We have an active dislike of industry auction rooms and will only visit them in the rare event that there is a good strategic reason to do so. Often the Company has been able to identify a low cost initial entry point into a target transaction, usually via an option arrangement. Occasionally we enter into deals through other doors but we really do like optionality. We can move very quickly but also, when required, we have a deep reserve of corporate patience. Our entry into Angola offers ample evidence of this. We like to operate, but realise we can't - and shouldn't - always seek to operate every project. We're a slave to economic analysis - although in this market that can work to your short term detriment. ROC is more risk averse than might be immediately apparent from the geographical spread of it's acreage. When you mention 'sensibly contrary' some people immediately think in terms of location, usually a remote and sometimes strange part of the globe. That is not how we think. Within ROC 'sensibly contrary' relates to the opportunity; the location is just a by-product. In fact, just over 80% of ROC's net acreage holding around the world is in the UK, Australia and New Zealand - hardly the heights of geographical exotica! - and just over 80% of ROC's total 2005 Budget will be spent in those countries, as will almost 50% of the Company's 2005 Exploration expenditure. Our 'sensibly contrary' strategy is no guarantee of success. Sometimes it fails. When that happens we are quick to recognise the 'F' word and we cut our losses as best we can. Sometimes, arguably, quite often, the strategy succeeds. We like it when that happens, but we never fall in love with our successes. From the vantage point of 2005 we can already see several examples of our strategy in success mode, including the acquisition of physical assets onshore UK in 1999; offshore Perth Basin in 2000; and offshore Mauritania in 2001. It is too early to comment on the success or otherwise of the acquisitions ROC made in China in 2002 and New Zealand in 2003. Perhaps, we don't always convey our strategy to the market as clearly as we should. As a result, some parts of the investment community, particularly in Australia, may gain the impression that ROC's geographic diversity is synonymous with poorly defined strategic thinking. Not surprisingly, we think that view is wrong. The main reason that our portfolio is geographically diverse is because we have met with a greater spread of success than expected. It is true that the degree of individual success has not been as great as we would have liked, but with fields being appraised or developed in China, Australia, Mauritania and the United Kingdom, a largely free-carried interest through a deep water well offshore Equatorial Guinea and an exploration programme that can truly be described as historic, about to start onshore Angola, it is a little difficult to know which part of the portfolio we should divest just so that we will be able to say that the Company is becoming more geographically focussed. It's like a father with seven children being told that seven is too many - it's hard to know which ones to give back! There is a difference of course: you love your children but, as I said earlier, you never fall in love with your assets. FUTURE Slide - Future: Crystal Ball Trying to forecast the future is a dangerous pastime for any CEO particularly if he or she works for a small or mid cap resource company - there are always so many variables beyond his or her control. ROC has deliberately been coy about predicting its future in terms of production etc. When we look at what has happened to some good faith, technically sincere, production predictions made by other peer companies around the world we don't see any compelling reason to alter this stance. However, the Chinguetti and Cliff Head fields are now firmly headed towards first oil. In both cases the finishing line - or, if you prefer, the starting line - is less than a year away. Therefore, I'll take my courage in both hands and make three predictions: • Firstly, if, by the time of next year's AGM, ROC isn't producing between 5,000 and 10,000 BOPD you will be looking at a very disappointed group of directors and managers. It is not that we expect the Chinguetti and Cliff Head developments to proceed on a, Teflon-like, trouble-free, basis. The offshore oil development business rarely works like that. Of course, there will be hitches and glitches and perhaps, even some delays - all will be keenly observed by, and very obvious to, the market. However, by this time next year, most of these inevitable start-up problems should all have been largely ironed out and the oil should be flowing at 5,000 to 10,000 BOPD, even as we present to the 2006 AGM. • Secondly, as ROC shareholders all of us will experience a number of potential company-making moments between now and next year's AGM. These will be the results of the fully funded exploration drilling programme which is already underway; the largest in the Company's history. The combination of two or more field developments driving a material rise in oil production just as a very aggressive exploration drilling programme unfolds across the globe, is the stuff which oil companies are made of - and it's the stuff that makes oil companies! Slide - Conveyor Belt • Finally, we will continue to move our key projects along the ROC conveyor belt and will do our best to maintain an appropriate supply of new ventures. That is what ROC has done in the past and that's what we intend to do in the future. FINAL COMMENTS Now we will end with something a little unusual. As you are aware, the seismic survey which ROC hopes to commence onshore Angola in the next month or two will be the first on-the-ground exploration activity in that country since 1972. To bring home to all of us just how long ago that is Slide - what else happened in1972 these are the things that were happening around the world at that time. What you are about to see is a 90 second video that started life as a 8mm film home movie in 1964. That was when the first well was drilled in the Cabinda South Block. Happily it was a discovery and resulted in a flow of oil and gas to surface. While there is nothing that the video can teach us about Health, Safety, Environment and Community matters from a 2005 vantage point it is both unusual and interesting for a company with a permit in a very petroliforous basin that hasn't been explored for 33 years to have a video of the first well that was drilled in the area 41 years ago. *Copies of slides and presentations to the AGM are available on ROC's website. (http://www.rocoil.com.au/Pages/ASX_Releases/2005_Releases/May-2005.html) For further information please contact: Dr John Doran on Tel: +61-2-8356-2000 Fax: +61-2-9380-2635 E-mail: jdoran@rocoil.com.au Or visit ROC's website: www.rocoil.com.au Dr Kevin Hird General Manager Business Development Tel: +44 (0)207 586 7935 Fax: +44 (0)207 722 3919 Email: khird@rocoil.com.au Nick Lambert Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial Tel: +44 (0)207 861 3232 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange AGMGUUAWAUPAUQG
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