Prudential plc 2008 Full Year

RNS Number : 1050P
Prudential PLC
19 March 2009
 



PRUDENTIAL PLC 2008 PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT


EUROPEAN EMBEDDED VALUE (EEV) BASIS RESULTS


SUMMARY CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT


2008

£m

2007

£m

Asian operations

1,335

1,099

US operations

593

635

UK operations:



UK insurance operations

1,081

859

M&G

286

254


1,367

1,113

Other income and expenditure 

(302)

(297)

Restructuring costs 

(32)

(20)

Operating profit from continuing operations based on longer-term investment returns 

2,961

2,530

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns

(5,127)

174

Mark to market value movements on core borrowings

656

223

Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes

(15)

(5)

Effect of changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and guarantees

(581)

748

(Loss) profit from continuing operations before tax (including actual investment returns) 

(2,106)

3,670

Tax attributable to shareholders' (loss) profit

771

(927)

(Loss) profit from continuing operations for the financial year after tax before minority interests

(1,335)

2,743

Discontinued operations (net of tax)

-

241

(Loss) profit for the year

(1,335)

2,984




Attributable to:



Equity holders of the Company

(1,338)

2,963

Minority interests

3

21

(Loss) profit for the year

(1,335)

2,984


Earnings per share (in pence)

2008

2007

Continuing operations



From operating profit, based on longer-term investment returns, after related tax and minority interests

88.6p

74.5p

Adjustment from post-tax longer-term investment returns to post-tax actual investment returns (after     minority interests)

(150.3)p

6.1p

Adjustment for effect of mark to market value movements on core borrowings

26.6p

9.1p

Adjustment for post-tax effect of shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined     benefit pension schemes

(0.5)p

(0.2)p

Adjustment for post-tax effect of changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and     guarantees (after minority interests)

(18.5)p

21.8p

Based on (loss) profit from continuing operations after tax and minority interests

(54.1)p

111.3p




Discontinued operations



Based on profit from discontinued operations after tax and minority interests

-

9.9p




Based on (loss) profit for the year after tax and minority interests

(54.1)p

121.2p




Average number of shares (millions)

2,472

2,445 


Dividends per share (in pence)

2008

2007

Dividends relating to reporting period:



Interim dividend (2008 and 2007)

5.99p

5.70p

Final dividend (2008 and 2007)

12.91p

12.30p

Total

18.90p

18.00p

Dividends declared and paid in reporting period:



Current year interim dividend

5.99p

5.70p

Final dividend for prior year

12.30p

11.72p

Total

18.29p

17.42p

  EUROPEAN EMBEDDED VALUE (EEV) BASIS RESULTS


OPERATING PROFIT FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS BASED ON LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT RETURNS*


Results Analysis by Business Area

2008

£m

2007

£m

Asian operations



New business

741

643

Business in force

568

399

Long-term business

1,309

1,042

Asset management

52

72

Development expenses 

(26)

(15)

Total

1,335

1,099

US operations



New business

293

285

Business in force

293

342

Long-term business

586

627

Broker-dealer and asset management

10

13

Curian

(3)

(5)

Total

593

635

UK operations



New business

273

277

Business in force

764

578

Long-term business

1,037

855

General insurance commission

44

4

Total UK insurance operations

1,081

859

M&G

286

254

Total

1,367

1,113

Other income and expenditure 



Investment return and other income

47

49

Interest payable on core structural borrowings 

(172)

(168)

Corporate expenditure:



Group Head Office

(130)

(129)

Asia Regional Head Office

(41)

(38)

Charge for share-based payments for Prudential schemes

(6)

(11)

Total

(302)

(297)

Restructuring costs**

(32)

(20)

Operating profit from continuing operations based on longer-term investment returns 

2,961

2,530




Analysed as profits (losses) from:



New business

1,307

1,205

Business in force 

1,625

1,319

Long-term business 

2,932

2,524

Asset management

345

334

Other results

(316)

(328)

Total

2,961

2,530

* EEV basis operating profit from continuing operations based on longer-term investment returns excludes short-term fluctuations in investment returns, the mark to market value movements on core borrowings, the shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes, and the effect of changes in economic assumptions and changes in the time value of cost of options and guarantees arising from changes in economic factors. The amounts for these items are included in total EEV profit attributable to shareholders. The directors believe that operating profit, as adjusted for these items, better reflects underlying performance. Profit before tax and basic earnings per share include these items together with actual investment returns. This basis of presentation has been adopted consistently throughout this preliminary announcement.


**Restructuring costs comprise the charge of £28 million recognised on an IFRS basis and an additional £4 million recognised on the EEV basis for the shareholders' share of costs incurred by the PAC with-profits fund.


The results for continuing operations shown above exclude those in respect of discontinued banking operations, which were sold on 1 May 2007.   In addition, there have been some minor adjustments to 2007 comparatives, as detailed in notes 4, 5 and 10.

  EUROPEAN EMBEDDED VALUE (EEV) BASIS RESULTS


MOVEMENT IN SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY (excluding minority interests)


2008

£m

2007

£m

(Loss) profit for the year attributable to equity shareholders 

(1,338)

2,963

Items taken directly to equity:



Exchange movements (note 14)

2,010

64

Unrealised valuation movements on securities classified as available-for-sale of discontinued banking     operations 

-

(2)

Movement on cash flow hedges

-

(3)

Related tax

119

3

Dividends 

(453)

(426)

New share capital subscribed

170

182

Reserve movements in respect of share-based payments

18

18

Treasury shares:



Movement in own shares in respect of share-based payment plans

3

7

Movement on Prudential plc shares purchased by unit trusts consolidated under IFRS

(25)

4

Mark to market value movements on Jackson assets backing surplus and required capital

(148)

(13)

Net increase in shareholders' equity

356

2,797

Shareholders' equity at beginning of year (excluding minority interests):



    As previously reported

14,779

11,883

    Effect of adoption of principles of IFRIC 14 for pension schemes (note 10)

(179)

(80)

    After adoption of IFRIC 14

14,600

11,803




Shareholders' equity at end of year (excluding minority interests)

14,956

14,600




Comprising:



Asian operations:



Net assets

5,431

3,837

Acquired goodwill

172

172


5,603

4,009




US operations 

4,453

3,686




UK operations:



Insurance business

4,919

6,497

M&G:



Net assets

147

271

Acquired goodwill

1,153

1,153


6,219

7,921

Other operations:



Holding company net borrowings at market value (note 9)

(818)

(873)

Other net liabilities

(501)

(143)





Shareholders' equity at end of year (excluding minority interests)

14,956

14,600




Representing:



Long-term business operations (note 12)

14,522

13,828

Other operations

434

772


14,956

14,600


  EUROPEAN EMBEDDED VALUE (EEV) BASIS RESULTS


SUMMARISED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET            


2008

£m

2007

£m

Total assets less liabilities, excluding insurance funds

186,209

195,596

Less insurance funds*:



Policyholder liabilities (net of reinsurers' share) and unallocated surplus of with-profits funds

(181,151)

(189,534)

Less shareholders' accrued interest in the long-term business

9,898

8,538


(171,253)

(180,996)




Total net assets

14,956

14,600




Share capital 

125

123

Share premium 

1,840

1,828

IFRS basis shareholders' reserves

3,093

4,111

Total IFRS basis shareholders' equity

5,058

6,062

Additional EEV basis retained profit

9,898

8,538




Shareholders' equity (excluding minority interests)

14,956

14,600

* Including liabilities in respect of insurance products classified as investment contracts under IFRS 4.



NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE (in pence)


2008

2007

Based on EEV basis shareholders' equity of £14,956m (2007: £14,600m)

599p

591p

Number of issued shares at year end (millions)

2,497

2,470



RETURN ON EMBEDDED VALUE**

15.0%

15.4%

** Return on embedded value is based on EEV operating profit from continuing operations after tax and minority interests as a percentage of opening EEV basis shareholders' equity.

  

EUROPEAN EMBEDDED VALUE (EEV) BASIS RESULTS


NOTES ON THE EEV BASIS RESULTS


1.    Basis of preparation of results


The EEV basis results have been prepared in accordance with the EEV Principles issued by the CFO Forum of European Insurance Companies in May 2004 and expanded by the Additional Guidance on EEV Disclosures published in October 2005. Where appropriate the EEV basis results include the effects of adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

                                                                                                

The EEV results for the Group are prepared for 'covered business', as defined by the EEV Principles. Covered business represents the Group's long-term insurance business for which the value of new and in-force contracts is attributable to shareholders. The EEV basis results for the Group's covered business are then combined with the IFRS basis results of the Group's other operations.


The definition of long-term business operations is consistent with previous practice and comprises those contracts falling under the definition of long-term insurance business for regulatory purposes together with, for US operations, contracts that are in substance the same as guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) but do not fall within the technical definition. Under the EEV Principles, the results for covered business incorporate the projected margins of attaching internal asset management.


With two principal exceptions, covered business comprises the Group's long-term business operations. The principal exceptions are for the closed Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund (SAIF) and for the presentational treatment of the financial position of two of the Group's defined benefit pension schemes. A very small amount of UK group pensions business is also not modelled for EEV reporting purposes.


SAIF is a ring-fenced sub-fund of the Prudential Assurance Company (PAC) long-term fund, established by a Court approved Scheme of Arrangement in October 1997. SAIF is closed to new business and the assets and liabilities of the fund are wholly attributable to the policyholders of the fund.


As regards the Group's defined benefit pension schemes, the liabilities attaching to the Prudential Staff Pension Scheme (PSPS) and Scottish Amicable Pension Scheme are excluded from the EEV value of UK operations and included in the total for Other operations. The amounts are partially attributable to the PAC with-profits fund and shareholder-backed long-term business and partially to other parts of the Group. In addition to the amounts recognised as attributable to shareholders under IFRS, 10 per cent share of the amount attributable to the PAC with-profits fund is recognised for EEV reporting purposes.


The directors are responsible for the preparation of the supplementary information in accordance with the EEV Principles.


The EEV basis results for 2008 and 2007 have been derived from the EEV basis results supplement to the Company's statutory accounts for 2008. The supplement included an unqualified audit report from the auditors.



2.    Methodology


Embedded value

Overview

The embedded value is the present value of the shareholders' interest in the earnings distributable from assets allocated to covered business after sufficient allowance has been made for the aggregate risks in that business. The shareholders' interest in the Group's long-term business comprises:


-    present value of future shareholder cash flows from in-force covered business (value of in-force business), less a deduction for the cost of locked-in (encumbered) capital;

    locked-in (encumbered) capital; and

-    shareholders' net worth in excess of encumbered capital (free surplus).


The value of future new business is excluded from the embedded value. In determining the embedded value or the profit before tax no smoothing of market account balance values, unrealised gains or investment returns is applied. Separately the analysis of profit is delineated between operating profit based on longer-term investment returns and other constituent items, as explained in note 4



Valuation of new business

The contribution from new business represents profits determined by applying non-economic assumptions as at the end of the year.


In determining the new business contribution for UK immediate annuity and lifetime mortgage business, which is interest rate sensitive, it is appropriate to use point of sale economic assumptions, consistent with how the business is priced. For other business within the Group end of period economic assumptions are used.


Level of encumbered capital

In adopting the EEV Principles, Prudential has based encumbered capital on its internal targets for economic capital subject to it being at least the local statutory minimum requirements. Economic capital is assessed using internal models but, when applying the EEV Principles, Prudential does not take credit for the significant diversification benefits that exist within the Group. For with-profits business written in a segregated life fund, as is the case in Asia and the UK, the capital available in the fund is sufficient to meet the encumbered capital requirements. For shareholder-backed business the following capital requirements apply:


  • Asian operations: the economic capital requirement is substantially higher than local statutory requirements in total. Economic capital requirements vary by territory, but in aggregate, the encumbered capital is broadly equivalent to the amount required under the Insurance Groups Directive (IGD).

  • US operations: the level of encumbered capital has been set to an amount at least equal to 235 per cent of the risk-based capital required by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) at the Company Action Level (CAL), which is sufficient to meet the economic capital requirement.

  • UK insurance operations: the economic capital requirements for annuity business are fully met by Pillar I requirements being four per cent of mathematical reserves, which are also sufficient to meet Pillar II requirements. For unit-linked and other shareholder-backed business the encumbered capital held reflects the statutory minimum Pillar I requirement, as required by the UK regulatory authorities.


Valuation movements on investments

With the exception of debt securities held by Jackson, investment gains and losses during the period (to the extent that changes in capital values do not directly match changes in liabilities) are included directly in the profit for the period and shareholders' funds as they arise.


The results for any covered business conceptually reflects the aggregate of the IFRS results and the movements on the additional shareholders' interest recognised on the EEV basis. Thus the start point for the calculation of the EEV results for Jackson, as for other businesses, reflects the market value movements recognised on the IFRS basis.


However, in determining the movements on the additional shareholders' interest, the basis for calculating the Jackson EEV result acknowledges that for debt securities backing liabilities the aggregate EEV results reflect the fact that the value of in-force business instead incorporates the discounted value of future spread earnings. This value is not affected generally by short-term market movements on securities that are broadly speaking held with the intent and ability to be retained for the longer term.


Fixed income securities backing the free surplus and required capital for Jackson are accounted for at fair value. However, consistent with the treatment applied under IFRS for securities classified as available-for-sale, movements in unrealised appreciation on these securities are accounted for in equity rather than in the income statement, as shown in the movement in shareholders' equity.



3.    Economic assumptions


(a)    Deterministic assumptions

In most countries, the long-term expected rates of return on investments and risk discount rates are set by reference to period end rates of return on cash or fixed interest securities. For the Group's Asian operations, the active basis is appropriate for business written in JapanKorea and US dollar denominated business written in Hong Kong. Except in respect of the projected returns of holdings of Asian debt and equity securities for those countries where long-term fixed interest markets are less established, the 'active' basis of assumption setting has been applied in preparing the results of all the Group's US and UK long-term business operations.


For countries where long-term fixed interest markets are less established, investment return assumptions and risk discount rates are based on an assessment of longer-term economic conditions. Except for the countries listed above, this basis is appropriate for the Group's Asian operations. Similarly, the projected returns on holdings of Asian securities in these territories by other Group business are set on the same basis.


Expected returns on equity and property asset classes in respect of each territory are derived by adding a risk premium, also based on the long-term view of Prudential's economists, to the risk-free rate. In Asia, equity risk premiums range from 3.0 per cent to 7.0 per cent (2007: 3.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent). In the US and the UK, the equity risk premium is 4.0 per cent above risk-free rates for both 2008 and 2007


Assumed investment returns reflect the expected future returns on the assets held and allocated to the covered business at the valuation date.


The tables below summarise the principal financial assumptions:


Asian operations    




China

Hong Kong 

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia 

Philippines

Singapore 

Taiwan 

Thailand

Vietnam





(notes iii, iv, v)





(notes iv, v)


(notes iv,v)

(notes ii, v)






31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec




2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008




%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Risk discount rate:













New business

11.75

3.8

14.25

15.25

4.8

8.2

9.1

15.75

6.15

9.1

13.0

16.75

In force

11.75

3.9

14.25

15.25

4.8

8.2

9.0

15.75

6.85

9.7

13.0

16.75

Expected long-term     rate of inflation

4.0

2.25

5.0

6.0

0.7

2.75

2.75

5.0

1.75

2.25

3.0

6.0

Government bond     yield 

8.25

2.3

9.25

10.25

1.6

4.3

6.5

9.25

4.25

5.5

6.75

10.25




China

Hong Kong 

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia 

Philippines

Singapore 

Taiwan 

Thailand

Vietnam





(notes iii, iv, v)





(notes iv, v)


(notes iv, v)

(notes ii, v)






31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec

31 Dec




2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007

2007




%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Risk discount rate:













New business

11.75

5.7

15.75

16.75

5.1

9.7

9.3

15.75

6.4

9.1

13.0

16.75

In force

11.75

6.0

15.75

16.75

5.1

9.7

9.1

15.75

6.8

9.8

13.0

16.75

Expected long-term     rate of inflation

4.0

2.25

5.0

6.0

0.0

2.75

2.75

5.0

1.75

2.25

3.0

6.0

Government bond     yield 

8.25

4.1

9.25

10.25

2.0

5.8

6.5

9.25

4.25

5.5

6.75

10.25



Asia total

Asia total

31 Dec 2008

31 Dec 2007

%

%

Weighted risk discount rate (note (i)):



New business

8.8

9.5

In force

7.8

8.7

Notes            

(i)    The weighted risk discount rates for Asian operations shown above have been determined by weighting each country's risk discount rates by reference to the EEV basis operating result for new business and the closing value of in-force business.

(ii)    For traditional business in Taiwan, the economic scenarios used to calculate the 2008 and 2007 EEV basis results reflect the assumption of a phased progression of the bond yields from the current rates applying to the assets held to the long-term expected rates.

For 2008 the projections assume that in the average scenario, the current bond yields at 31 December 2008 of 1.4 per cent trend towards 5.5 per cent at 31 December 2018.  This compares to the 2007 results for which the projections assume that in the average scenario, the current bond yields at 31 December 2007 of around 2.5 per cent trend towards 5.5 per cent at 31 December 2013.

The expected long term rate is a function of expectation of inflation and real rates of interest, on which the Company has taken external expert advice. It is considered that the outlook for long-term interest rates in Asia will be strongly influenced by the trend in the projection of comparable US long-term real interest rates. Consequently assessment of the expected rates for Taiwan has taken into account the structural factors of government borrowing, savings rates, short-term interest rates, government intervention and non-market influences that could affect Taiwanese real interest rates over the projection period. Together with a central inflation projection for Taiwan, the Company considers that the long term rate of 5.5 per cent is appropriate in the longer-term.

In projecting forward the Fund Earned Rate, allowance is made for the mix of assets in the fund, future investment strategy, and further market value depreciation of bonds held as a result of assumed future yield increases. These factors, together with the assumption of the phased progression in bond yields, give rise to an average assumed Fund Earned Rate that changes from 6.6 per cent for 2008 to 6.7 per cent for 2019. The assumed Fund Earned Rate falls to 3.35 per cent in 2009 and subsequently to 1.2 per cent in 2010, then increases to 5.15 per cent by 2018. Thereafter, the assumed Fund Earned Rate fluctuates around a target of 6.per cent. This projection compares with that applied for the 2007 results of a grading from an assumed rate of 0.5 per cent for 2007 to 6.4 per cent for 2014.

Consistent with the EEV methodology applied, a constant discount rate has been applied to the projected cash flows.

On 20 February 2009, the Company announced that it had agreed to transfer the agency business of the Taiwan Life business to China Life. Further details are given in note 11.

(iii)    The assumptions shown are for US dollar denominated business which comprises the largest proportion of the in-force Hong Kong business.

         (iv)    The mean equity return assumptions for the most significant equity holdings in the Asian operations were:

 

31 Dec
2008

31 Dec
2007
 
%
%
Hong Kong
6.2
8.1
Malaysia
12.5
12.5
Singapore
10.2
9.3


To obtain the mean, an average over all simulations of the accumulated return at the end of the projection period is calculated. The annual average return is then calculated by taking the root of the average accumulated return minus 1.

(v)    For 2008 and 2007, cash rates rather than government bond yields were used in setting risk discount rates for MalaysiaSingaporeTaiwan and for Hong Kong dollar denominated business. 


 
US operations (Jackson)
 
31 Dec 2008
31 Dec 2007
 
%
%
Risk discount rate (note (i)):
 
 
 
New business
 
4.6
7.0
In force
 
3.9
6.0
Expected long-term spread between earned rate and rate credited to policyholders for single premium deferred annuity business
 
1.75
1.75
US 10-year treasury bond rate at end of period
 
2.3
4.1
Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for US equities
 
6.3
8.1
Expected long-term rate of inflation
 
1.5
2.4

Notes

(i)      The risk discount rates at 31 December 2008 for new business and business in-force for US operations reflect weighted rates based on underlying rates of 6.2 per cent for variable annuity (VA) business and 3.0 per cent for other business. The decrease in the weighted discount rates reflects the decrease in the US 10-year treasury bond rate of 180 bps and a change in the product mix with the 2008 results seeing an increase in the proportion of new and in-force business arising from other than VA business.

 

(ii)    Credit risk treatment

The projected cash flows incorporate the expected long-term spread between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders. The projected earned rates reflect book value yields which are adjusted over time to reflect projected reinvestment rates. The expected spread incorporates a Risk Margin Reserve (RMR) allowance of 25 basis points for longer-term defaults as described in note 4.

In the event that longer-term default levels are higher then, unlike for UK annuity business where policyholder benefits are not changeable, Jackson has some discretion to adjust crediting rates, subject to contract guarantee levels and general market competition considerations.

The results for Jackson reflect the application of the low discount rates shown above. In the event that US 10-year treasury rates increase, the altered embedded value results would reflect a lower contribution from fixed annuity business and a partially offsetting increase for variable annuity business as the projected earned rate, as well as the discount rate, would increase for this type of business.

The book value yields, net of RMR allowance, are in excess of the risk discount rate. To correct for the anomalous effect that would otherwise occur no credit has been taken for the cost of capital benefit that this feature would give rise to for fixed annuity business.















UK insurance operations


31 Dec 2008 

31 Dec 2007


%

%

Shareholder-backed annuity business: 




Risk discount rate (notes (i) and (iv))




New business


9.6

7.8

In force


12.0

7.8

    Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for shareholder-backed annuity         business (note (iii)):




    Fixed annuities


6.4 to 6.7

5.4 to 5.6

    Inflation-linked annuities


5.7 to 5.8

5.0 to 5.2





Other business:




Risk discount rate (notes (ii) and (iv))




New business


6.7

7.0

In force


6.75

7.9

    Pre-tax expected long-term nominal rates of investment return:




    UK equities


7.7

8.55

    Overseas equities


6.3 to 10.25

8.1 to 10.2

    Property


6.0

6.8

    Gilts


3.7

4.55

    Corporate bonds - with-profits funds (notes (iv) and (v))


5.2

6.0

- other business


5.2

6.25

    Expected long-term rate of inflation


3.0

3.2

    Post-tax expected long-term nominal rate of return for the PAC with-profits fund:




    Pension business (where no tax applies)


6.6

7.85

    Life business


5.8

6.9





Notes

(i)    The new business risk discount rate for shareholder-backed annuity business for 2008 reflects the assets allocated to back new business with an allowance for credit risk based on point of sale market conditions, consistent with how the business was priced. The allowance for credit risk for new business at point of sale is determined using the same methodology for in-force business described in note (iv) below.

(ii)    The risk discount rate for new business and business in force for UK insurance operations other than shareholder-backed annuities reflect weighted rates based on the type of business.

(iii)    The pre-tax rates of return for shareholder-backed annuity business are based on the gross redemption yield on the backing assets net of a best estimate allowance for future defaults.

       (iv)    Credit spread treatment

For with-profits business, the embedded value reflects the discounted value of future shareholder transfers. These transfers are directly affected by the level of projected rates of return on investments, including debt securities.  Given the current exceptional fixed interest market conditions, and the Company's expectation that the widening of credit spreads observed in 2008 will not be maintained, the Company considers that it is most appropriate to assume an unchanged level of credit spreads, an unchanged level of longer-term default allowance and an unchanged risk discount rate methodology relative to those used at 31 December 2007.

For UK annuity business, different dynamics apply both in terms of the nature of the business and the EEV methodology applied. For this type of business the assets are generally held to maturity to match long duration liabilities. It is therefore appropriate under EEV methodology to include a liquidity premium in the economic basis used. The appropriate EEV risk discount rate is set in order to equate the EEV with a 'market consistent embedded value' including liquidity premium. The liquidity premium is derived from the yield on the assets held after deducting an appropriate allowance for credit risk. For Prudential Retirement Income Limited (PRIL), which has approximately 90 per cent of UK shareholder-backed annuity business, the allowance for credit risk at 31 December 2008 is made up of:

a        16 bps for fixed annuities and 13 bps for inflation-linked annuities in respect of long-term expected defaults; this is derived by applying Moody's data from 1970 onwards uplifted by between 100 per cent (B) and 200 per cent (AAA) according to credit rating, to the asset portfolios.

b    11 bps for fixed annuities and bps for inflation-linked annuities in respect of long-term credit risk premium for the potential volatility in default levels; this is derived by applying the 95th worst percentile from Moody's data from 1970 onwards, to the asset portfolios.

c    56 bps for fixed annuities and 48 bps for inflation-linked annuities in respect of additional short-term credit risk, reflecting the extreme market conditions at 31 December 2008; this is derived as 25 per cent of the increase in credit spreads over swaps that has occurred since 31 December 2006 based on a set of externally published indices weighted to reflect the asset mix.

On a weighted basis for fixed annuities and inflation-linked annuities the allowance is 15 bps for long-term expected defaults, 11 bps for long-term credit risk premium, and 54 bps for short-term credit risk.

Pillar I reserves are calculated using a similar allowance for credit risk. For EEV reporting the allowance for short-term credit risk is assumed to be released gradually over the five year period following the valuation date. 


The Pillar I allowance of 80 bps per annum is financially equivalent to 185 bps for the years 2009 to 2011 and 45 bps thereafter for the life of the book.

The overall allowance for credit risk is prudent by comparison with historic rates of default and would be sufficient to withstand a wide range of extreme credit events over the expected lifetime of the annuity business.  

The risk discount rate for new business profits reflects the assets allocated to back new business and an allowance for credit risk based on point of sale market conditions, consistent with how the business was priced. The allowance for credit risk at the point of sale is determined using the same methodology for in-force business. In both cases, the allowance for credit risk included in setting the discount rate reflects the three constituent elements of long-term expected defaults, long-term credit risk premiums, and additional short-term credit risk.

(v)    The assumed long-term rate for corporate bonds for 2007 for with-profits business was determined after taking account of the purchase of credit default swaps.


(b)    Stochastic assumptions

The economic assumptions used for the stochastic calculations are consistent with those used for the deterministic calculations described above. Assumptions specific to the stochastic calculations, such as the volatilities of asset returns, reflect local market conditions and are based on a combination of actual market data, historic market data and an assessment of longer-term economic conditions. Common principles have been adopted across the Group for the stochastic asset models, for example, separate modelling of individual asset classes but with allowance for correlation between the various asset classes.


Details are given below of the key characteristics and calibrations of each model.


Asian operations

The same asset return models as used in the UK, appropriately calibrated, have been used for the Asian operations as described for UK insurance operations below. The principal asset classes are government and corporate bonds. Equity holdings are much lower than in the UK whilst property holdings do not represent a significant investment asset.


The stochastic cost of guarantees is primarily only of significance for the Hong Kong, MalaysiaSingapore and Taiwan operations.


The mean stochastic returns are consistent with the mean deterministic returns for each country. The expected volatility of equity returns for 2008 ranges from 18 per cent to 30 per cent (2007: 18 per cent to 25 per cent), and the volatility of government bond yields ranges from 1.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent (2007: 1.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent).


US operations (Jackson)

  • Interest rates are projected using a log-normal generator calibrated to actual market data;

  • Corporate bond returns are based on Treasury securities plus a spread that has been calibrated to current market conditions and varies by credit quality; and

  • Variable annuity equity and bond returns have been stochastically generated using a log-normal model with parameters determined by reference to historical data. The volatility of equity fund returns for both 2008 and 2007 ranges from 18.6 per cent to 28.1 per cent, depending on risk class, and the standard deviation of bond returns ranges from 1.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent (2007: 1.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent).

UK insurance operations

  • Interest rates are projected using a two-factor model calibrated to actual market data;

  • The risk premium on equity assets is assumed to follow a log-normal distribution;

  • The corporate bond return is calculated as the return on a zero-coupon bond plus a spread. The spread process is a mean reverting stochastic process; and

  • Property returns are modelled in a similar fashion to corporate bonds, namely as the return on a riskless bond, plus a risk premium, plus a process representative of the change in residual values and the change in value of the call option on rents.

Mean returns have been derived as the annualised arithmetic average return across all simulations and durations.


For each projection year, standard deviations have been calculated by taking the square root of the annualised variance of the returns over all the simulations. These have been averaged over all durations in the projection. For equity and property, the standard deviations relate to the total return on these assets. The standard deviations applied to both 2008 and 2007 are as follows:



%

Equities:



UK


18.0

Overseas


16.0

Property


15.0


4.    Accounting presentation


Analysis of profit before tax

To the extent applicable, presentation of the EEV profit for the year is consistent with the basis that the Group applies for analysis of IFRS basis profits before shareholder taxes between operating and non-operating results. Operating results reflect the underlying results of the Group's continuing operations including longer-term investment returns. Operating results include the impact of routine changes of estimates and non-economic assumptions. Non operating results comprise short-term fluctuations in investment returns, the shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes, the mark to market value movements on core borrowings and the effect of changes in economic assumptions and changes in the time value of cost of options and guarantees.


Operating profit

Investment returns, including investment gains, in respect of long-term insurance business are recognised in operating results at the expected long-term rate of return. For the purpose of calculating the longer-term investment return to be included in the operating results of UK operations, where equity holdings are a significant proportion of investment portfolios, values of assets at the beginning of the reporting period are adjusted to remove the effects of short-term market volatility.


For the purposes of determining the long-term returns for debt securities of shareholder-backed operations, a risk margin charge is included which reflects the expected long-term rate of default based on the credit quality of the portfolio. For Jackson, interest-related realised gains and losses are amortised to the operating results over the maturity period of the sold bonds and for equity-related investments, a long-term rate of return is assumed, which reflects the aggregation of risk-free rates and equity risk premium.  For US variable annuity separate account business, operating profit reflects the expected longer-term rate of return with the excess or deficit of the actual return recognised within non-operating profit, together with the related hedging activity.


For UK annuity business, rebalancing of the asset portfolio backing the liabilities to policyholders may from time to time take place to align it more closely with the internal benchmark of credit quality that management applies. Such rebalancing will result in a change in the risk adjusted yield on the assets used to determine the valuation interest rate for calculating the carrying value of policyholder liabilities. Operating profit includes the effect of rebalancing the portfolio calibrated to investment conditions at 31 December 2006 i.e. prior to the exceptional spread widening in 2007 and 2008. Non-operating profit incorporates the effect of rebalancing calibrated by reference to changes to credit spreads since 31 December 2006.


Previously, for the purpose of presentation of the Group's operating results, the return on capital held centrally to back the economic capital requirements for the Taiwan life business has been allocated to the operating result for Asian operations with a consequent reduction in Group shareholders' other income for EEV basis reporting. In the 2008 results this approach has no longer been applied. The presentation of the 2007 comparative results has been adjusted accordingly, as explained in note 6(iv).


Effect of changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and guarantees

Movements in the value of in-force business caused by changes in economic assumptions and the time value of cost of options and guarantees resulting from changes in economic factors are recorded in non-operating results.



5.    Margins on new business premiums


2008




New Business Premiums 

Annual Premium and Contribution Equivalents

(APE)

Present Value of New Business Premiums

(PVNBP)

Pre-Tax New Business

Contribution

(notes (ii) 

and (iii))

New Business Margin

(note (i))


Single

Regular

(APE)

(PVNBP)


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

%

%

Asian operations (note (iv))


1,457

1,216

1,362

7,308

741

54

10.1

US operations 


6,917

24

716

7,140

293

41

4.1

UK insurance operations (note (vi))


6,929

254

947

8,081

273

29

3.4

Total


15,303

1,494

3,025

22,529

1,307

43

5.8







2007




New Business Premiums

Annual Premium and Contribution Equivalents 

(APE)

Present Value of New Business Premiums

(PVNBP)

Pre-Tax New Business

Contribution

(notes (ii) 

and (iii))

New Business Margin

(note (i))


Single

Regular

(APE)

(PVNBP)


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

%

%

Asian operations (notes (iv) and (v))


1,793

1,108

1,287

6,906

643

50

9.3

US operations


6,515

19

671

6,666

285

42

4.3

UK insurance operations (note (vi))


6,632

247

910

7,736

277

30

3.6

Total


14,940

1,374

2,868

21,308

1,205

42

5.7

Notes

(i)    New business margins are shown on two bases, namely the margins by reference to Annual Premium and Contribution Equivalents (APE) and the Present Value of New Business Premiums (PVNBP). APEs are calculated as the aggregate of regular new business amounts and one-tenth of single new business amounts. PVNBPs are calculated as equalling single premiums plus the present value of expected premiums of new regular premium business, allowing for lapses and other assumptions made in determining the EEV new business contribution.

(ii)    In determining the EEV basis value of new business written in the year the policies incept, premiums are included in projected cash flows on the same basis of distinguishing annual and single premium business as set out for statutory basis reporting.

(iii)    In general, as described in note 3the use of point of sale or end of period economic assumptions is not significant in determining the new business contribution for different types of business and across financial reporting periods. However, to obtain proper measurement of the new business contribution for business which is interest rate sensitive, it is appropriate to use point of sale economic assumptions, consistent with how the business was priced. In practice, the only area within the Group where this has a material effect, particularly in light of the dislocation of markets in 2008, is for UK shareholder-backed annuity and lifetime mortgage business. The 2008 results for shareholder-backed annuity and lifetime mortgage business have been prepared on the basis of point of sale rather than end of period economic assumptions which previously applied for EEV reporting. New business profits would have been £111 million lower if end of year economic assumptions had been applied. The reduction is reflected in non-operating profit.  The £111 million primarily reflects the level of credit spread widening since the point of sale.  For 2007, the effect of the use of point of sale market conditions would not have been material.

New business contributions for all business represent profits determined by applying non-economic assumptions as at the end of the year.

(iv)    The results for Asian operations include those of the Taiwanese life operations for which the Company agreed to transfer its agency business to China Life on 20 February 2009. Details are included in note 11.

(v)    The tables for Asian operations above reflect the inclusion of CITIC-Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd, the Group's life operation in China as 50 per cent held joint venture for 2008 and 2007 reflecting the economic interest throughout both years. Previously, for presentational purposes, the 2007 results reflected the inclusion of CITIC-Prudential as a subsidiary undertaking up to 29 September 2007 and 50 per cent thereafter following the change of management arrangement after this date, with appropriate minority interest accounting to reflect the 50 per cent economic interest. The presentation of the operating profit for 2007 has been adjusted to allocate £10 million of profit from the result for new business to business in-force to prevent distortion of the published new business margin.

(vi)    To align with the treatment in the 2008 results, the tables for UK insurance operations above for 2007 reflect the inclusion of the Group's UK health insurance joint venture operation, PruHealth, with an APE of £13 million and PVNBP of £107 million.



6.    Operating profit from business in-force



2008


Unwind of discount and other expected returns 

(note (i))

Effect of change in operating assumptions (note (ii))

Experience variances and other items (note (iii))

Total


£m

£m

£m

£m

Asian operations


434

135

(1)

568

US operations


233

(17)

77

293

UK insurance operations


569

-

195

764

Total


1,236

118

271

1,625






2007


Unwind of discount and other expected returns 

(note (i))

Effect of change in operating assumptions 

Experience variances and other items 

(notes (iii), 

(iv) and (v))

Total


£m

£m

£m

£m

Asian operations


340

54

5

399

US operations


240

(24)

126

342

UK insurance operations


592

67

(81)

578

Total


1,172

97

50

1,319

Notes

(i)    The increase in unwind of discount and other expected returns in 2008 over 2007 mainly arises in Asian operations, reflecting the growth in opening value from 1 January 2007 to 1 January 2008 on which the value of in-force business unwinds.

(ii)    The effect of changes in operating assumptions for Asian operations in 2008 of a credit of £135 million reflects favourable effects arising from changes in mortality and morbidity assumptions of £58 million, the effect of changes in lapse rates of £36 million, the effect of changes in expense assumptions of £26 million and the impact of incorporating the benefit arising on the change of corporate tax rate in Indonesia of £15 million.

(iii)    Experience variances and other items for UK insurance operations in 2008 are in aggregate a credit of £195 million Consistent with the methodology applied in previous years, this amount includes a credit of £118 million resulting from part of the effect of rebalancing the asset portfolio backing annuity business on the valuation interest rate for determining Pillar I liabilities. The rebalancing reflects changes to the portfolio to more closely align the credit quality with management benchmark. The £118 million effect of rebalancing included in operating profit reflects longer-term levels of credit spread evident as at 31 December 2006 i.e. prior to the exceptional credit spread widening in 2007 and 2008. The additional increase in the Pillar I valuation interest rate due to rebalancing at the credit spreads at which assets were traded in 2008 is reflected within non-operating profit together with, via the increase in discount rate, the additional allowance for credit risk for the portfolio as a whole as described in note 8. The £195 million credit also includes a cost of capital charge of £(34) million for the effect of holding the short-term credit risk reserve for statutory reporting, as described in note 3, and releasing it over an assumed five year period.  Also included in operating profit for business in-force is a credit of £56 million in respect of the release of certain annuity business reserves, a credit of £24 million in respect of the release of prior period provisions relating to Credit Life business, and a net credit of £31 million for other items.

Experience variances and other items for US operations of £77 million for 2008 include a credit of £54 million in respect of spread experience variance.

(iv)    The 2007 comparative result for Asian operations has been increased by £10 million for the adjustment in respect of China (as explained in note 5) and reduced by £(4) million for the discontinuance of the allocation of notional return on centrally held economic capital in respect of Taiwan from shareholders' other income to the result for Asian operations, as explained in note 4. Other income is increased by an equivalent amount. Total profits are unaffected by these adjustments.


(v)    The 2007 comparative result for UK insurance operations has been reduced by £4 million in respect of the separate disclosure of UK general insurance commission. Total operating profit from UK insurance operations is unaffected by this adjustment.



7.    Short-term fluctuations in investment returns



2008

£m

2007

£m

Insurance operations:



Asia (note (i))

(1,063)

226

US (note (ii))

(1,344)

(9)

UK (note (iii))

(2,407)

(42)




Other operations (note (iv))

(313)

(1)

Total  

(5,127)

174 

Notes

(i)    Asian operations 




2008 

 

 

 £m

Singapore

(310)

Hong Kong 

(284)

Taiwan

(163)

Other operations

(306)

 

 

(1,063)


For Singapore and Hong Kong, the short-term fluctuations primarily reflect the effect of substantial equity market falls on unit-linked and with-profits business. The short-term fluctuations for Taiwan principally reflect the equity market fall and a £(40) million value reduction for an investment in a CDO fund. 


(ii)    US operations (Jackson)


The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for US operations primarily reflect the impact of impairment losses on debt securities and the effects on the value of variable annuity business of adverse movements in US equity markets. The fluctuations for US operations comprise the following items:



2008

2007


£m

£m




Realised impairment losses:



    Actual losses on fixed income securities

 (466)

 (78)

    Less: Risk margin charge included in operating profit

54 

48 


 (412)

 (30)

Loss due to changed expectation of profits from fees on in-force variable annuity business in future periods     based on current period equity returns, net of related hedging activity*

 (733)

 (16)

Actual less longer-term return on equity-type securities

 (148)

51 

Other

 (51)

 (14)


 (1,344)

 (9)

* This adjustment arises due to the market returns being lower than the assumed longer-term rate of return. This gives rise to lower than expected year end values of variable annuity assets under management with a resulting effect on the projected value of future account values and hence future profitability from altered fees. For 2008, the US equity market returns were approximately negative 38.5 per cent compared to the assumed longer-term rate of return of 5.8 per cent.


(iii)    UK insurance operations

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for UK insurance operations for 2008 arise on the following types of business:


2008


£m

With-profits (note (a))

(2,083)

Shareholder-backed annuity (note (b))

(213)

Unit-linked and other (note (c))

(111)


(2,407)

     Notes

(a)    For with-profits business the charge represents the negative actual investment return on the PAC with-profits fund of (19.7) per cent against an assumed rate of 6.6 per cent.  

(b)    Short-term fluctuations on shareholder-backed annuity business represents the unrealised loss on surplus assets and default experience. 

(c)    The charge of £(111) million relates primarily to unit-linked business and predominantly represents the capitalised loss of future fees from the fall in market values experienced during the year.


(iv)    Other operations

Details on the charge of £(313) million for short-term fluctuations for other operations is shown in note F to the IFRS basis results.



8.    Effect of changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and guarantees


The (losses) profits on changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and guarantees resulting from changes in economic factors for in-force business included within the (loss) profit from continuing operations before tax (including actual investment returns) arise as follows:


2008


2007

Change in

economic

assumptions

Change in

time value

of cost of

options and

guarantees

Total

Change in

economic

assumptions

Change in

time value

of cost of

options and

guarantees

Total

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Asian operations (note (i))

(34)

8

(26)


201

9

210

US operations (note (ii))

267

11

278


81

8

89

UK insurance operations (notes (iii) and (iv))

(783)

(50)

(833)


466

(17)

449

Total

(550)

(31)

(581)


748

0

748

Notes

(i)    The effect of changes in economic assumptions in Asia for 2008 of a charge of £(34) million includes a negative effect in Taiwan of £(185) million reflecting a charge of £(239) million for the impact of extending the phased bond yield progression period in Taiwan out by five years from 31 December 2013 to 31 December 2018, as described in note 3, offset by the impact in other territories, mainly reflecting the reduction in risk discount rates.

(ii)    The credit for the effect of changes in economic assumptions for 2008 for US operations of £267 million primarily arises as a result of the impact of a change in the risk discount rate of £454 million, partially offset by the impact of a decrease in the variable annuity separate account return of £(230) million, both movements reflecting the 180 bps reduction in the 10-year Treasury rate as shown in note 3.  

         (iii)    The effect of changes in economic assumptions of a charge of £(783) million for UK insurance operations comprises the effect of:

 

Shareholder-backed

annuity

 business

With-profits

 and other

 business

2008


(note (a))

(note (b))


 

£m

£m

£m

Increase (decrease) in portfolio yields

83 

(1,082)

(999)

(Increase) decrease in risk discount rates

(394)

668 

274 

Other changes

(6)

(52)

(58)

 

(317)

(466)

(783)

    Notes                                                

    (a)    For shareholder-backed annuity business (i.e. held in PRIL and the PAC non-profit sub-fund) the impact of the change in risk discount rate of £(394) million includes £(400) million in respect of strengthening credit risk assumptions (excluding the strengthening required in respect of the £2.8 billion rebalancing of the asset portfolios). The impact of the change in portfolio yields of £83 million includes a profit of £231 million in respect of the rebalancing, calculated by reference to changes in credit spreads since 31 December 2006.

    (b)    For with-profits and other business the decrease in fund earned rates and risk discount rates primarily reflects the reduction in gilt rates of (0.85) per cent.

(iv)    The effect of changes in time value of cost of options and guarantees of a charge of £(50) million primarily relates to with-profits business reflecting the effect of the reduction in fund earned rates, as described in note (iii)(b) above.



9.    Holding company net borrowings at market value


Holding company net borrowings at market value comprise:


31 Dec 2008

31 Dec 2007 


£m

£m

Holding company borrowings:



IFRS basis

2,785

2,367

Mark to market value adjustment

(802)

(38)

EEV basis (note)

1,983

2,329

Holding company* cash and short-term investments

(1,165)

(1,456)

Holding company net borrowings

818

873

*Including central finance subsidiaries.

    Note

    EEV basis holding company borrowings comprising:

 
2008
£m
2007
£m
Perpetual subordinated capital securities (Innovative Tier 1)
513
679
Subordinated debt (Lower Tier 2)
737
817
Senior debt
733
833
 
1,983
2,329












10.    Adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 for pension schemes


To provide consistency with the basis applied for IFRS reporting, the EEV basis results reflect adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 for pension schemes. The impact of the adoption is as follows:

 
2008
 
2007
 
Previous basis
Effect of adoption
Revised basis
 
As
published
Effect of adoption
After change
 
£m
£m
£m
 
£m
£m
£m
Operating profit from continuing operations based on       longer-term investment returns
2,992
(31)
 2,961
 
2,542
(12)
       2,530
Short-term fluctuations in investment returns
(5,127)
 
(5,127)
 
174
 
    174
Mark to market value movements on core borrowings
656
 
    656
 
223
 
223
Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and       losses on defined benefit pension schemes
17
(32)
(15)
 
116
(121)
(5)
Effect of changes in economic assumptions and time       value of cost of options and guarantees
(581)
 
(581)
 
        748
 
         748
(Loss) profit before tax
(2,043)
(63)
(2,106)
 
     3,803
(133)
3,670
Tax
754
17
771
 
(961)
        34
(927)
(Loss) profit after tax
(1,289)
(46)
(1,335)
 
     2,842
(99)
2,743
Discontinued operations
-
 -
       -
 
        241
        -
241
Less minority interests
(3)
-
(3)
 
(21)
          -
(21)
(Loss) profit for the year
(1,292)
(46)
(1,338)
 
     3,062
(99)
2,963
Other movements in reserves
1,694
          -
1,694
 
(166)
          -
(166)
Shareholders’ equity at beginning of year
14,779
(179)
 14,600
 
   11,883
(80)
11,803
Shareholders’ equity at end of year
15,181
(225)
 14,956
 
 14,779
(179)
14,600


The changes reflect the aggregate of those under IFRS, as shown in note Q to the Group IFRS results, and the shareholders' 10 per cent interest in the PAC with-profits element of the effect of the change in accounting policy reflected under EEV reporting.


11.    Intended sale of legacy agency book and agency force in Taiwan to China Life Insurance of Taiwan


On 20 February 2009, the Company announced that it had entered into an agreement to sell the assets and liabilities of its agency distribution business and its agency force in Taiwan to China Life Insurance Company Ltd of Taiwan for the nominal sum of NT$1.  In addition, Prudential will invest £45 million to purchase a 9.95 per cent stake in China Life through a share placement. The business being transferred represents 94 per cent of Prudential's in-force liabilities in Taiwan and includes Prudential's legacy interest rate guaranteed products. The transfer is subject to regulatory approval.


After taking account of EEV shareholders' funds at 31 December 2008 of the business and restructuring and other costs the Group's EEV shareholders' equity is expected to increase by approximately £90 million.


The movement in shareholders' EEV equity of the total Taiwan life business for 2008 comprised:


£m

Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns from:


New business

120 

Business in force

(16)

Total

104 



Short-term fluctuations in investment returns

(163)

Effect of changes in economic assumptions and time value of cost of options and guarantees

(185)

Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes

(3)

Loss before tax

(247)

Total tax

12 

Minority interests

2

Loss for the financial year

(233)

Investment by parent company (note (i))

93 

Exchange and other reserve movements

(53)

Net movement

(193)

Shareholders' equity at 1 January 2008

(12)

Shareholders' equity at 31 December 2008

(205)

Note

(i)    Comprising £66 million for solvency capital and £27 million for business developments.



12.    Movement in Embedded value


The following analysis shows the movements in embedded value arising from the Group's underlying business activity and the effects of the current extraordinary market conditions.



  Free Surplus 

(note (ii))

 Required

Capital

(note (iii))

 Net Worth 

 Value of in-force

 Total 

Group

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

Underlying movement






New business

 (825)

472 

 (353)

1,290 

937 

Business in force      - expected transfer

1,413 

 (416)

997 

 (997)

- unwind of discount, effects of changes in operating assumptions, operating experience variances and other operating items (note (vii))

(11)

299

288

928

1,216

 

577

355

932

1,221

2,153

Investment movements and economic effects:






UKIO additional credit provisions (note (iv))

 (770)

41 

 (729)

705 

 (24)

Jackson impairment losses in excess of longer term expected returns net of defaults

(268)

(268)

(268)

Other investment movements and effect of changes in economic assumptions (note (v))

(647)

165

(482)

(3,145)

(3,627)

 

(1,685)

206

(1,479)

(2,440)

(3,919)

Net cash flows to parent company (note (viii))

(166)

(166)

 (132)

(298)

Other items (note (ix))

253

686

939

1,819

2,758

Net movement

 (1,021)

1,247 

226 

468 

694 

Balance at 1 January 2008

1,468 

2,870 

4,338 

9,490 

13,828 

Balance at 31 December 2008

447 

4,117 

4,564 

9,958 

14,522 

          Notes

          (i)    All figures are shown net of tax.

(ii)    Free surplus is the market value of the net worth in excess of the capital required to support the covered business. Where appropriate, adjustments are made to the regulatory basis net worth from the local regulatory basis so as to include backing assets movements at fair value rather than cost so as to comply with the EEV principles

(iii)    Prudential has based required capital on its internal targets for economic capital subject to it being at least the local statutory minimum requirements, as described in note 2.

         (iv)    The increase in UKIO credit provisions reflects the allowances explained in note 3.

         (v)    Other investment movements and effect of changes in economic assumptions represent:


  Free Surplus 

(note ii)

 Required

Capital

(note iii)

 Net Worth 

 Value of in-force

 Total 

 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

Other investment movements (note (vi))

(681)

(27)

(708)

(2,496)

(3,204)

Effect of changes in economic assumptions (note (vii))

34

192

226

(649)

(423)

 

(647)

165

(482)

(3,145)

(3,627)

 (vi)    Other investment movements primarily reflect temporary market movements on the portfolio of investments held by the Group's shareholder-backed operations together with the shareholders' 10 per cent interest in the value movements on the assets in the with-profits funds.

(vii)    The underlying movement in free surplus includes £85 million for the effect of rebalancing the asset portfolio for UK annuity business, as described in note 6. The effect of changes in economic assumptions on free surplus includes a credit of £166 million in respect of rebalancing as described in note 8.

(viii)    Net cash flows to or from parent company reflect the flows for long-term business operations as included in the holding company cash flow at transaction rate.




(ix)    Other items represent:


  Free Surplus 

(note ii)

 Required

Capital

(note iii)

 Net Worth 

 Value of in-force

 Total 

 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

 £m 

Exchange movements (note 14)

76

823

899

1,535

2,434

Mark to market value movements on Jackson assets backing     surplus and required capital

(148)


(148)


(148)

Other (note x)

325

(137)

188

284

472

 

253

686

939

1,819

2,758

(x)    The effect of other items on total embedded value of £472 million primarily relate to the impact on free surplus of an intra-group capital adjustment in respect of UK insurance operations of £320 million, an adjustment for funds loaned to the parent company of £133 million from Singapore and an adjustment of £50 million to reflect the cash flows to parent company at year end rates of exchange consistent with the closing embedded value. Also included is a net overall charge of £(40) million for the reallocation of certain statutory reserves for UK insurance and US operations, an adjustment to required capital and the reallocation of surplus note borrowings for US operations. The effect of these adjustments is a decrease in free surplus of £(187) million, a reduction in required capital of £(137) million and an increase in the value of in-force business of £284 million.



13.    Expected transfer of value of in-force business to free surplus


The discounted value of in-force and required capital at 31 December 2008 can be reconciled to the analysis of free surplus crystallisation as follows:



2008

£m

Required capital (note 12)

4,117

Value of in-force (VIF) (note 12)

9,958

Add: Cost of time value of guarantees

474

Other items 

(181)


14,368


Other items includes the deduction of the value of the shareholders' interest in the Estate, the value of which is derived by increasing final bonus rates so as to exhaust the Estate over the lifetime of the in-force with-profits business. This is an assumption to give an appropriate valuation. To be conservative this item is excluded from the value of the Estate from the expected free surplus generation profile below. Offset against this value are amounts treated as capital for regulatory purposes (and hence treated as capital for net worth purposes) but which are deducted in full against the VIF (i.e. the full undiscounted value).


Cash flows are projected on a certainty equivalent basis and are discounted at the appropriate risk discount rate. The modelled cash flows use the same methodology underpinning the Group's embedded value methodology reporting and so is subject to the same assumptions and sensitivities.


The table below shows how the VIF generated by the in-force business at 31 December 2008 and the associated required capital is modelled as emerging into free surplus over future years.


 
 
2008
 
 
Expected period of conversion of future post tax distributable earnings and required capital flows to free surplus
 
Total
£m
1-5 years
£m
6-10 years
£m
11-15 years
£m
16-20 years
£m
20+ years
£m
Asian operations
5,373
1,746
1,150
859
564
1,054
US operations
4,374
2,415
1,167
460
180
152
UK insurance operations
4,621
2,297
975
600
389
360
Total
14,368
6,458
3,292
1,919
1,133
1,566
 
 
45%
23%
13%
8%
11%







14.    Exchange movements


To be consistent with the basis applied for IFRS reporting, EEV basis results for the year are translated at average exchange rates. Shareholders' funds are translated at year end rates with exchange movements recognised in EEV basis shareholders' equity as follows:


 
2008
£m
2007
£m
Long-term business operations:
 
 
Asian operations
1,170
80
US operations
1,264
(53)
 
2,434
27
Other operations (primarily reflecting US$ denominated holding company borrowings and hedge positions)
(424)
37
Total
2,010
64

  TOTAL INSURANCE AND INVESTMENT PRODUCTS NEW BUSINESS


INSURANCE PRODUCTS AND INVESTMENT PRODUCTS

                    


Insurance products

Investment products

Total

2008 

£m

2007 

£m

2008 

£m

2007 

£m

2008 

£m

2007 

£m

Asian operations

2,673

2,901

46,957

38,954

49,630

41,855

US operations

6,941

6,534

36

60

6,977

6,594

UK operations

7,183

6,879

16,154

14,745

23,337

21,624

Group Total

16,797

16,314

63,147

53,759

79,944

70,073


INSURANCE PRODUCTS - NEW BUSINESS PREMIUMS AND CONTRIBUTIONS (note (i))



Single

Regular

 Annual Premium and Contribution Equivalents (APE)

Present Value of New Business Premiums (PVNBP)


2008 

£m

2007

 £m

2008

 £m

2007

 £m

2008

 £m

2007

 £m

2008

 £m

2007

 £m

Asian operations









China (note (iv))

63

45

32

24

38

29

230

167

Hong Kong

507

501

154

117

205

167

1,612

1,196

India (Group's 26% interest)

60

26

202

177

208

180

747

728

Indonesia

94

118

167

109

176

121

649

494

Japan

115

122

30

22

42

34

217

214

Korea

78

179

211

241

219

259

1,097

1,267

Malaysia

28

41

99

78

102

82

570

472

Singapore

341

593

78

67

112

126

961

1,047

Taiwan

153

132

189

218

204

231

1,037

1,121

Other

18

36

54

55

56

58

188

200

Total Asian operations

1,457

1,793

1,216

1,108

1,362

1,287

7,308

6,906

US operations









Fixed annuities

1,724

573

-

-

172

57

1,724

573

Fixed index annuities

501

446

-

-

50

45

501

446

Variable annuities

3,491

4,554

-

-

349

455

3,491

4,554

Life

7

7

24

19

25

20

230

158

Guaranteed Investment Contracts

857

408

-

-

86

41

857

408

GIC-Medium Term Notes

337

527

-

-

34

53

337

527

Total US operations

6,917

6,515

24

19

716

671

7,140

6,666

UK operations









Product summary









Internal vesting annuities

1,600

1,399

-

-

160

140

1,600

1,399

Direct and partnership annuities

703

842

-

-

70

84

703

842

Intermediated annuities

497

555

-

-

50

56

497

555

Total individual annuities

2,800

2,796

-

-

280

280

2,800

2,796

Income drawdown

75

34

-

-

8

3

75

34

Equity release

242

156

-

-

24

16

242

156

Individual pensions

115

38

3

1

14

5

124

42

Corporate pensions

221

283

88

84

110

112

645

737

Unit-linked bonds

109

243

-

-

11

24

109

243

With-profit bonds

869

297

-

-

87

30

869

297

Protection

-

-

6

5

6

5

38

26

Offshore products

551

434

4

4

59

47

573

455

PruHealth (note (v))

-

-

16

13

16

13

146

107

Total retail retirement

4,982

4,281

117

107

615

535

5,621

4,893

Corporate pensions

227

198

116

115

139

135

653

604

Other products

132

190

21

25

34

44

219

276

DWP rebates

153

143

-

-

15

14

153

143

Total mature life and pensions

512

531

137

140

188

193

1,025

1,023

Total retail

5,494

4,812

254

247

803

728

6,646

5,916

Wholesale annuities (note (iii))

1,417

1,799

-

-

142

180

1,417

1,799

Credit life

18

21

-

-

2

2

18

21

Total UK operations

6,929

6,632

254

247

947

910

8,081

7,736










Channel Summary









Direct and partnership

2,352

2,385

215

212

450

451

3,268

3,313

Intermediated

2,990

2,284

39

35

338

263

3,226

2,460

Wholesale (note (iii))

1,434

1,820

-

-

144

182

1,434

1,820

Sub-total 

6,776

6,489

254

247

932

896

7,928

7,593

DWP rebates

153

143

-

-

15

14

153

143

Total UK operations

6,929

6,632

254

247

947

910

8,081

7,736

Group Total

15,303

14,940

1,494

1,374

3,025

2,868

22,529

21,308


INVESTMENT PRODUCTS - FUNDS UNDER MANAGEMENT (note (ii))



1 Jan 2008

Market

gross inflows 

Redemptions

Market and other movements

31 Dec 2008

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Asian operations

17,393

46,957

(46,102)

(3,016)

15,232

US operations

55

36

(32)

(9)

50

UK operations

51,221

16,154

(12,747)

(7,631)

46,997

Group Total

68,669

63,147

(58,881)

(10,656)

62,279

Notes

(i)    The tables shown above are provided as an indicative volume measure of transactions undertaken in the reporting period that have the potential to generate profits for shareholders. The amounts shown are not, and not intended to be, reflective of premium income recorded in the IFRS income statement.

Annual premium and contribution equivalents are calculated as the aggregate of regular new business amounts and one tenth of single new business amounts. PVNBPs are calculated as equalling single premiums plus the present value of expected premiums of new regular premium business, allowing for lapses and other assumptions made in determining the EEV new business contribution. New business premiums reflect those premiums attaching to covered business, including premiums for contracts classified as investment products for IFRS reporting. New business premiums for regular premium products are shown on an annualised basis. Department of Work and Pensions rebate business is classified as single recurrent business. Internal vesting business is classified as new business where the contracts include an open market option.

The format of the tables shown above is consistent with the distinction between insurance and investment products as applied for previous financial reporting periods. With the exception of some US institutional business, products categorised as 'insurance' refer to those classified as contracts of long-term insurance business for regulatory reporting purposes, i.e. falling within one of the classes of insurance specified in part II of Schedule 1 to the Regulated Activities Order under FSA regulations.

The details shown above for insurance products include contributions for contracts that are classified under IFRS 4 'Insurance Contracts' as not containing significant insurance risk. These products are described as investment contracts or other financial instruments under IFRS. Contracts included in this category are primarily certain unit-linked and similar contracts written in UK insurance operations and Guaranteed Investment Contracts and similar funding agreements written in US operations.

(ii)    Investment products referred to in the table for funds under management above are unit trust, mutual funds and similar types of retail asset management arrangements. These are unrelated to insurance products that are classified as 'investment contracts' under IFRS 4, as described in the preceding paragraph, although similar IFRS recognition and measurement principles apply to the acquisition costs and fees attaching to this type of business. 

(iii)    The tableabove include for 2007 the transfer of 62,000 with-profits annuity policies from Equitable Life on 31 December 2007 with assets of approximately £1.7 billion. The transfer represented an APE of £174 million.

(iv)    Subsequent to 29 September 2007 following expiry of the previous management agreement CITIC-Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd (CITIC-Prudential), the Group's life operation in China, has been accounted for as a 50 per cent joint venture. Prior to this date CITIC-Prudential was consolidated as a subsidiary undertaking. All premiums for CITIC-Prudential are shown at 50 per cent on a like for like basis, reflecting the constant economic interest before and after the management changes in line with the original agreement with CITIC.

          (v)    The tables above for full year 2008 and 2007 reflect the inclusion of the Group's UK health insurance joint venture operation,
          PruHealth.


PRUDENTIAL PLC 2008 PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT


INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS (IFRS) BASIS RESULTS


CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT            



2008

 £m

2007*

 £m





Gross premiums earned

18,993

18,359

Outward reinsurance premiums

(204)

(171)

Earned premiums, net of reinsurance

18,789

18,188

Investment return

(30,202)

12,225

Other income

1,146

2,457

Total revenue, net of reinsurance (note C)

(10,267)

32,870

Benefits and claims 

4,620

(26,224)

Outward reinsurers' share of benefits and claims

389

(20)

Movement in unallocated surplus of with-profits funds 

5,815

(541)





Benefits and claims and movement in unallocated surplus of with-profits funds, net of reinsurance

10,824

(26,785)

Acquisition costs and other operating expenditure

(2,459)

(4,859)

Finance costs: interest on core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations

(172)

(168)

Total charges, net of reinsurance (note C)

8,193

(31,812)





(Loss) profit before tax (being tax attributable to shareholders' and policyholders' returns)** (note C)

(2,074)

1,058

Tax credit attributable to policyholders' returns

1,624

5

(Loss) profit before tax attributable to shareholders (note D)

(450)

1,063

Tax credit (charge) (note G)

1,683

(349)

Less: tax credit attributable to policyholders' returns

(1,624)

(5)

Tax credit (charge) attributable to shareholders' (loss) profit (note G)

59

(354)





(Loss) profit from continuing operations after tax (note C)

(391)

709

Discontinued operations (net of tax) (note H)

-

241

(Loss) profit for the year

(391)

950





Attributable to:



Equity holders of the Company

(396)

947

Minority interests

5

3

(Loss) profit for the year

(391)

950





Earnings per share (in pence)

2008 

2007 





Basic (based on 2,472m and 2,445m shares respectively):



Based on (loss) profit from continuing operations attributable to the equity holders of the Company (note I)

(16.0)p

28.8

Based on profit from discontinued operations attributable to the equity holders of the Company

-

9.9p



(16.0)p

38.7p





Diluted (based on 2,473m and 2,448m shares respectively):



Based on (loss) profit from continuing operations attributable to the equity holders of the Company

(16.0)p

28.8p

Based on profit from discontinued operations attributable to the equity holders of the Company

-

9.8p



(16.0)p

38.6p





Dividends per share (in pence)

2008 

2007 

Dividends relating to reporting period:



Interim dividend (2008 and 2007)

5.99p

5.70p

Final dividend (2008 and 2007) (note J)

12.91p

12.30p

Total

18.90p

18.00p

Dividends declared and paid in reporting period:



Current year interim dividend

5.99p

5.70p

Final dividend for prior year

12.30p

11.72p

Total

18.29p

17.42p

* The Company has adopted the principles of IFRIC 14 in accounting for pension schemes. The adoption gives rise to consequential changes to the comparative results for 2007 (see note and note Q).

*This measure is the formal (loss) profit before tax measure under IFRS but it is not the result attributable to shareholders.

  CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY


            2008


Share capital

Share premium

Retained earnings

Translation reserve

Available-for-sale securities reserve

Shareholders' equity

Minority interests

Total equity


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Reserves









Loss for the year



(396)



(396)

5

(391)










Items recognised directly in equity:









   Exchange movements




631


631


631

Unrealised valuation movements on securities of US insurance operations classified as available-for-sale: 









Unrealised holding losses arising during the year





(3,197)

(3,197)


(3,197)

Less net losses included in the income statement on disposal and impairment





487

487


487

Total (note N)





(2,710)

(2,710)


(2,710)

Related change in amortisation of deferred income and acquisition costs (note E(ii)(b)) 





1,070

1,070


1,070

Related tax




119

569

688


688

Total items of income and expense recognised directly in     equity 




750

(1,071)

(321)


(321)


Total income and expense for the year



(396)

750

(1,071)

(717)

5

(712)

Dividends



(453)



(453)

(2)

(455)

Reserve movements in respect of share-based payments 



18



18


18

Change in minority interests arising principally from     purchase and sale of property partnerships of the PAC     with-profits fund and other consolidated investment     funds







(50)

(50)










Share capital and share premium









New share capital subscribed 

2

168




170


170

Transfer to retained earnings in respect of shares issued in     lieu of cash dividends 


(156)

156















Treasury shares









Movement in own shares in respect of share-based     payment plans



3



3


3

Movement in Prudential plc shares purchased by unit     trusts consolidated under IFRS



(25)



(25)


(25)

Net increase (decrease) in equity

2

12

(697)

750

(1,071)

(1,004)

(47)

(1,051)










At beginning of year:









As previously reported

123

1,828

4,440

(112)

(78)

6,201

102

6,303

Effect of adoption of principles of IFRIC 14 for  accounting     for pension schemes (note Q)



(139)



(139)


(139)

After adoption of IFRIC 14

123

1,828

4,301

(112)

(78)

6,062

102

6,164

At end of year

125

1,840

3,604

638

(1,149)

5,058

55

5,113

  


2007


Share capital

Share premium

Retained earnings

Translation 

reserve

Available-for-sale securities reserve

Hedging reserve

Shareholders' equity

Minority interests

Total equity


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Reserves










Profit for the year



947




947

3

950











Items recognised directly in equity:










Exchange movements




11



11


11

Movement on cash flow hedges






(3)

(3)


(3)

Unrealised valuation movements on securities classified as available-for-sale of discontinued banking operations





(2)


(2)


(2)

Unrealised valuation movements on securities of US insurance operations classified as available-for-sale: 










Unrealised holding losses arising     during the year





(231)


(231)


(231)

Less net gains included in the     income statement on disposal     and impairment





(13)


(13)


(13)

Total 





(244)


(244)


(244)

Related change in amortisation of     deferred income and acquisition     costs (note E(ii)(b)) 





88


88


88

Related tax




2

53

1

56


56

Total items of income and expense     recognised directly in equity 




13

(105)

(2)

(94)


(94)


Total income and expense for the year



947

13

(105)

(2)

853

3

856

Dividends



(426)




(426)

(5)

(431)

Reserve movements in respect of share-    based payments 



18




18


18

Change in minority interests arising     principally from purchase and sale of     venture investment companies and     property partnerships of the PAC with-    profits fund and other consolidated     investment funds








(28)

(28)











Share capital and share premium










New share capital subscribed 

1

181





182


182

Transfer to retained earnings in respect of     shares issued in lieu of cash dividends


(175)

175

















Treasury shares










Movement in own shares in respect of share-    based payment plans



7




7


7

Movement in Prudential plc shares     purchased by unit trusts consolidated     under IFRS



4




4


4

Net increase (decrease) in equity

1

6

725

13

(105)

(2)

638

(30)

608











At beginning of year:










As previously reported

122

1,822

3,640

(125)

27

2

5,488

132

5,620

Effect of adoption of principles of IFRIC 14 for accounting for pension schemes (note Q)



(64)




(64)


(64)

After adoption of IFRIC 14

122

1,822

3,576

(125)

27

2

5,424

132

5,556

At end of year

123

1,828

4,301

(112)

(78)

0

6,062

102

6,164

  INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS (IFRS) BASIS RESULTS


CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET



2008

£m

2007*

£m

Assets









Intangible assets attributable to shareholders:



Goodwill

1,341

1,341

Deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets (note S)

5,349

2,836


6,690

4,177




Intangible assets attributable to with-profits funds:



In respect of acquired subsidiaries for venture fund and other investment purposes 

174

192

Deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets

126

19


300

211

Total 

6,990

4,388




Other non-investment and non-cash assets:



Property, plant and equipment

635

1,012

Reinsurers' share of insurance contract liabilities

1,240

783

Deferred tax assets

2,886

951

Current tax recoverable

657

285

Accrued investment income

2,513

2,023

Other debtors

1,232

909

Total 

9,163

5,963




Investments of long-term business and other operations:



Investment properties

11,992

13,688

Investments accounted for using the equity method

10

12

Financial investments:



Loans (note L)        

10,491

7,924

Equity securities and portfolio holdings in unit trusts

62,122

86,157

Debt securities (note M)

95,224

83,984

Other investments

6,301

4,396

Deposits 

7,294

7,889

Total 

193,434

204,050






Held for sale assets

-

30

Cash and cash equivalents

5,955

4,951

Total assets (note K)

215,542

219,382







  



2008

£m

2007*

£m

Equity and liabilities









Equity



Shareholders' equity  

5,058

6,062

Minority interests

55

102

Total equity

5,113

6,164







Liabilities



Policyholder liabilities and unallocated surplus of with-profits funds:



Insurance contract liabilities

136,030

132,776

Investment contract liabilities with discretionary participation features

23,446

29,550

Investment contract liabilities without discretionary participation features

14,501

14,032

Unallocated surplus of with-profits funds

8,414

13,959

Total 

182,391

190,317






Core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations (note O):



Subordinated debt

1,987

1,570

Other

971

922

Total

2,958

2,492


Other borrowings:



Operational borrowings attributable to shareholder-financed operations (note P)

1,977

3,081

Borrowings attributable to with-profits funds (note P)

1,308

987





Other non-insurance liabilities:



Obligations under funding, securities lending and sale and repurchase agreements

5,572

4,081

Net asset value attributable to unit holders of consolidated unit trusts and similar funds

3,843

3,556

Current tax liabilities

842

1,237

Deferred tax liabilities

3,229

3,402

Accruals and deferred income

630

599

Other creditors

1,496

1,020

Provisions 

461

575

Derivative liabilities

4,832

1,080

Other liabilities

890

791

Total

21,795

16,341

Total liabilities

210,429

213,218

Total equity and liabilities (note K)

215,542

219,382


* The Company has adopted the principles of IFRIC 14 in accounting for pension schemes giving rise to consequential changes to the comparative results for 2007 (see notes B and Q).

  CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT 


2008 

£m

2007*

£m

Cash flows from operating activities 



(Loss) profit before tax from continuing operations (being tax attributable to shareholders' and policyholders' returns) (note (i) and C)

(2,074)

1,058

Profit before tax from discontinued operations (note H)

-

222

Total (Loss) profit before tax 

(2,074)

1,280

Changes in operating assets and liabilities:



Investments

33,255

(11,730)

Other non-investment and non-cash assets 

(1,659)

(466)

Policyholder liabilities (including unallocated surplus)

(26,987)

11,845

Other liabilities (including operational borrowings)

(631)

902

Interest income and expense and dividend income included in profit before tax

(4,989)

(8,201)

Other non-cash items

(74)

(141)

Operating cash items:



Interest receipts

2,937

5,541

Dividend receipts

2,019

2,732

Tax paid

(653)

(624)

Net cash flows from operating activities

1,144

1,138

Cash flows from investing activities



Purchases of property, plant and equipment

(240)

(231)

Proceeds from disposal of property, plant and equipment

11

61

Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash balances (note (ii))

-

(77)

Disposal of Egg, net of cash balances (note (iii))

-

(538)

Disposal of other subsidiaries, net of cash balances (note (ii))

-

157

Deconsolidation of investment subsidiaries (note (iv))

-

(91)

Net cash flows from investing activities

(229)

(719)

Cash flows from financing activities



Structural borrowings of the Group:



Shareholder-financed operations (notes (v) and O):



Redemption

-

(150)

Interest paid 

(167)

(171)

With-profits operations (notes (vi) and P):



Interest paid

(9)

(9)

Equity capital (note (vii)):



Issues of ordinary share capital

12

6

Dividends paid 

(297)

(255)

Net cash flows from financing activities

(461)

(579)






Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents

454

(160)

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year

4,951

5,071

Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents

550

40

Cash and cash equivalents at end of year (note (viii))

5,955

4,951

The Company has adopted the principles of IFRIC 14 for pension schemes, giving rise to consequential changes to the 2007 comparative results. Note explains the effect of the change.

Notes                

(i)    This measure is the formal (loss) profit before tax measure under IFRS but it is not the result attributable to shareholders.(ii)    Acquisitions and disposals of subsidiaries for 2007 shown above include venture investments and other investment subsidiaries of the PAC with-profits fund.

(iii)    The amount of £(538) million in respect of the disposal of Egg in 2007, net of cash balances shown above, represents the net sale proceeds of £527 million less cash and cash equivalents of £1,065 million held by Egg and transferred on disposal.

(iv)    In November 2007, the Company sold its venture fund management subsidiary, PPM Capital. As a result of the arrangements attaching to the sale, it is no longer appropriate to consolidate the holdings managed by that company.

(v)    Structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations comprise core debt of the holding company and Jackson surplus notes. Core debt excludes borrowings to support short-term fixed income securities programmes and non-recourse borrowings of investment subsidiaries of shareholder-financed operations. Cash flows in respect of these borrowings are included within cash flows from operating activities. 

(vi)    Structural borrowings of with-profits operations relate solely to the £100 million 8.5 per cent undated subordinated guaranteed bonds which contribute to the solvency base of the Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund (SAIF), a ring-fenced sub-fund of the PAC with-profits fund. Cash flows in respect of other borrowings of with-profits funds, which principally relate to consolidated investment funds, are included within cash flows from operating activities. 

(vii)    Cash movements in respect of equity capital exclude scrip dividends.

(viii)    Of the cash and cash equivalents amounts reported above, £165 million (2007: £394 millionare held centrally.

  INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS (IFRS) BASIS RESULTS


NOTES ON THE STATUTORY IFRS BASIS RESULTS


A    Basis of preparation and audit status


The statutory basis results included in this announcement have been extracted from the audited financial statements of the Group for the year ended 31 December 2008. These statements have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as adopted by the European Union (EU) as required by EU law (IAS Regulation EC1606/2002).


The auditors have reported on the 2008 statutory accounts. The financial information set out above does not constitute the Company's statutory accounts for the years ended 31 December 2008 or 2007 but is derived from those accounts. Statutory accounts for 2007 have been delivered to the registrar of companies, and those for 2008 will be delivered in due course. The auditors have reported on those accounts; their report was (i) unqualified, (ii) did not include a reference to any matters to which the auditors drew attention by way of emphasis without qualifying their report and (iii) did not contain a statement under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985.


B    Significant accounting policies


The accounting policies applied by the Group in determining the IFRS basis results in this announcement are the same as those previously applied in the Group's consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2007, except for the effect of the adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 'The limit on Defined Benefit Asset Minimum Funding Requirements and their Interaction' (see note Q).


In addition, the Group adopted the 'Reclassification of Financial Assets: Amendments to IAS 39 Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement and IFRS 7 Financial Instruments: Disclosures'. This amendment was issued in October 2008 and permits the reclassification of non-derivative financial assets into the 'loans and receivables' category under which assets are carried at amortised cost, if specific conditions are met. The Group has not made any such reclassification of financial assets as permitted by the amendments.  


C    Segment disclosure


2008


2007

£m


£m

Revenue




Insurance operations

(10,798)


31,555

Asset management

664


1,397

Unallocated corporate

157


186

Intra-group revenue eliminated on consolidation

(290)


(268)

Total revenue, net of reinsurance, per income statement (note (i))

(10,267)


32,870

Analysed as:




Investment return (note (iii))

(30,202)


12,225

Other items

19,935


20,645


(10,267)


32,870

Charges (before income tax attributable to policyholders and unallocated surplus of long-term insurance funds)


Insurance operations, including post-tax transfers to unallocated surplus of with-profits funds

8,980


(30,533)

Asset management

(524)


(1,053)

Unallocated corporate

(553)


(494)

Intra-group charges eliminated on consolidation

290


268

Total charges, net of reinsurance, per income statement (note (i))

8,193


(31,812)

Segment results - revenue less charges (continuing operations)




Insurance operations 

(1,818)


1,022

Asset management

140


344

Unallocated corporate

(396)


(308)

(Loss) profit before tax (note (ii)) (being tax attributable to shareholders' and policyholders' returns)

(2,074)


1,058

Tax attributable to policyholders' returns

1,624


5

(Loss) profit before tax attributable to shareholders

(450)


1,063

Tax credit (charge) attributable to shareholders' (lossprofit

59


(354)

(Loss) profit from continuing operations after tax

(391)


709

Segment results - discontinued operations (net of tax)




Banking (note H)

-


241

(Loss) profit for the year

(391)


950

(i)    Total revenue for 2008 is negative £10,267 million whilst charges are a credit of £8,193 million. These abnormal features arise from the basis of preparation whereby revenue includes investment return, which is negative in 2008, and charges reflect the allocation, where appropriate, of investment return to policyholder benefits.

     (ii) This measure is the formal (loss) profit before tax measure under IFRS but is not the results attributable to shareholders.        

      (iii) Investment return principally comprises:

-      Interest and dividends;

-      Realised and unrealised gains and losses on securities and derivatives classified as fair value through profit and loss under IAS
       39; and

-      Realised gains and losses, including impairment losses, on securities classified as available-for-sale under IAS 39.



D    Supplementary analysis of (loss) profit from continuing operations before tax attributable to shareholders




2008

2007

Results analysis by business area

£m

£m

Asian operations



Insurance operations (note E(i))

321

189

Asset management 

52

72

Development expenses

(26)

(15)

Total 

347

246

US operations



Jackson (note E(ii))

406

444

Broker-dealer and asset management

10

13

Curian

(3)

(5)

Total 

413

452

UK operations



UK insurance operations:



Long-term business (note E(iii))

545

524

General insurance commission (note (i))

44

4

    Total

589

528

M&G

286

254

Total 

875

782

Other income and expenditure



Investment return and other income

89

86

Interest payable on core structural borrowings 

(172)

(168)

Corporate expenditure:



Group Head Office

(130)

(129)

Asia Regional Head Office

(41)

(38)

Charge for share-based payments for Prudential schemes (note (ii))

(6)

(11)

Total 

(260)

(260)

Restructuring costs 

(28)

(19)

Operating profit from continuing operations based on longer-term investment returns (note (iii))

1,347

1,201

Short-term fluctuations in investment returns on shareholder-backed business (note F)

(1,783)

(137)

Shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes 

(14)

(1)

(Loss) profit from continuing operations before tax attributable to shareholders (note (iv))

(450)

1,063

Notes

(i)    UK operations transferred its general insurance business to Churchill in 2002, with general insurance commission representing the net commission receivable for Prudential-branded general insurance products as part of this arrangement.

(ii)    The charge for share-based payments for Prudential schemes is for the SAYE and Group performance-related schemes.

(iii)    Basis of determining longer-term investment returns

The Group continues to use operating profit based on longer-term investment returns as a supplemental measure of its results. For the purposes of measuring operating profit, investment returns on shareholder-financed business are based on the expected longer-term rates of return. This reflects the particular features of long-term insurance business where assets and liabilities are held for the long-term and for which the accounting basis for insurance liabilities under current IFRS is not generally conducive to demonstrating trends in underlying performance for life businesses exclusive of changes in market conditions.  In determining profit on this basis, the following key elements are applied to the results of the Group's shareholder-financed operations.


(a)    Debt and equity securities

Longer-term investment returns comprise income and longer-term capital returns. For debt securities the longer-term capital returns comprise two elements. These are a risk margin reserve based charge for expected defaults, which is determined by reference to the credit quality of the portfolio, and amortisation of interest-related realised gains and losses to operating results based on longer-term investment returns to the date when sold bonds would have otherwise matured.



(b)    Derivative value movements

Value movements for Jackson's equity-based derivatives and variable annuity product embedded derivatives are included in operating profits based on longer-term investment returns. The inclusion of these movements is so as to broadly match with the results on the Jackson variable annuity book that pertain to equity market movements.


Other derivative value movements are excluded from operating results based on longer-term investment returns. These derivatives are primarily held by Jackson as part of a broadly-based hedging programme for features of Jackson's bond portfolio (for which value movements are booked directly to shareholders' equity rather than income statement) and product liabilities (for which US GAAP accounting does not reflect the economic features being hedged).


    These key elements are of most importance in determining the operating results based on longer-term investment returns of Jackson.


There are two exceptions to the basis described above for determining operating results based on longer-term investment returns. These are for:


    -    Unit-linked and US variable annuity business.


For such business the policyholder liabilities are directly reflective of the asset value movements. Accordingly all asset value movements are recorded in the operating results based on longer-term investment returns.


    -    Assets covering non-participating business liabilities that are interest rate sensitive.


For UK annuity business policyholder liabilities are determined by reference to current interest rates. The value movements of the assets covering liabilities are closely correlated with the related change in liabilities. Accordingly asset value movements are recorded within the operating results based on longer-term investment returns. Policyholder liabilities include a margin for asset defaults which, if they occur, are recorded as a component of short-term fluctuations in investment returns.


(c)    Liabilities to policyholders and embedded derivatives for product guarantees

Under IFRS, the degree to which the carrying values of liabilities to policyholders are sensitive to current market conditions varies between territories depending upon the nature of the 'grandfathered' measurement basis. In general, in those instances where the liabilities are particularly sensitive to routine changes in market conditions, the accounting basis is such that the impact of market movements on the assets and liabilities are broadly equivalent in the income statement, and operating profit based on longer-term investments returns is not distorted. In these circumstances there is no need for the movement in the liability to be bifurcated between the element that relates to longer-term market conditions and short-term effects.


However, some types of business movements in liabilities do require bifurcation to ensure that at the net level (i.e. after allocated investment return and change for policyholder benefits) the operating result reflects longer-term market returns.


          Examples where such bifurcation is necessary are:


(i)    Asia

  • Vietnamese participating business

For the participating business in Vietnam the liabilities include policyholders' interest in investment appreciation and other surplus. Bonuses paid in a reporting period and accrued policyholder interest in investment appreciation and other surpluses primarily reflect the level of realised investment gains above contract specific hurdle levels. For this business operating profit based on longer-term investment returns includes the aggregate of longer-term returns on the relevant investments, a credit or charge equal to movements on the liability for the policyholders' interest in realised investment gains (net of any recovery of prior deficits on the participating pool), less amortisation over five years of current and prior movements on such credits or charges.

    

The overall purpose of these adjustments is to ensure that investment returns included in operating results equal longer-term returns but that in any one reporting period movements on liabilities to policyholders caused by investment returns are substantially matched in the presentation of the supplementary analysis of profit before tax attributable to policyholders.

        

  • Non-participating business

Bifurcation for the effect of determining the movement in the carrying value of liabilities to be included in operating results based on longer-term investment returns, and the residual element for the effect of using year end rates in the balance sheet.


  • Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit (GMDB) product features

For unhedged GMDB liabilities accounted for under IFRS using 'grandfathered' US GAAP, such as in the Japanese business, the change in carrying value is determined under SOP 03-01, which partially reflects changes in market conditions. Under the Company's supplementary basis of reporting the operating profit reflects the change in liability based on longer-term market conditions with the difference between the charge to the operating result and the movement reflected in the total result included in short-term fluctuations in investment returns.


(ii)    US operations - Embedded derivatives for variable annuity guarantee features

Under IFRS, the Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) and Guaranteed Minimum Income Benefit (GMIB) reinsurance are required to be fair valued as embedded derivatives. The movements in carrying values are affected by changes in the level of observed implied equity volatility and changes to the discount rate applied from period to period. For these embedded derivatives, as described in note E(ii)(a), the discount rate applied reflects AA corporate bond curve rates. For the purposes of determining operating profit based on longer-term investment returns the charge for these features is determined using historical longer-term equity volatility levels and long-term average AA corporate bond rate curves.  Further details are shown in note F.


(iii)    UK shareholder-backed annuity business

With one exception, the operating result based on longer-term investment returns reflects the impact of all value movements on policyholder liabilities for annuity business in PRIL and the PAC non-profit sub-fund.


The exception is for the impact on credit risk provisioning of actual downgrades during the year. As this feature arises due to short-term market conditions the effect on the altered valuation rate of interest is included in the category of short-term fluctuations in investment returns as shown in note F.


The effects of other changes to credit risk provisioning including the introduction of the short-term allowance for credit risk described in note E(iii) are included in the operating result, as in the net effect of changes to the valuation rate of interest applied to portfolio rebalancing to align more closely with management benchmark.


(d)    Fund management and other non-insurance businesses

For these businesses, where the business model is more conventional than that for life assurance, it is inappropriate to include returns in the operating result on the basis described above. Instead it is appropriate to generally include realised gains and losses (including impairments) in the operating result with unrealised gains and losses being included in short-term fluctuations. In some instances it may also be appropriate to amortise realised gains and losses on derivatives and other financial instruments to operating results over a time period that reflects the underlying substance of the arrangements. 


(iv)    The results for continuing operations shown above exclude those in respect of discontinued banking operations which were sold on 1 May 2007. Note H shows the composition of the contribution from discontinued operations.



E    Key assumptions, estimates and bases used to measure insurance assets and liabilities


(i)    Asian operations


(a)    Changes in key assumptions


Effect of 2008 changes


For 2008, the result for Asian operations was reduced by the effect of a number of individually small assumption changes of, in aggregate, £21 million.  There were no changes of assumptions that had a material impact on the 2007 results.  


Taiwan interest rate assumption


For the Taiwanese life operation the profits attaching to legacy interest rate guaranteed products are particularly affected by the rates of return earned, and estimated to be earned on the assets held to cover liabilities and on future investment income and contract cash flows. Under IFRS, the insurance contract liabilities of the Taiwan business are determined on the US GAAP basis previously applied under UK GAAP. Under this basis, the policy liabilities are calculated on sets of assumptions, which are locked in at the point of policy inceptions, and a deferred acquisition cost is held in the balance sheet.


The adequacy of the insurance contract liabilities is tested by reference to best estimates of expected investment returns on policy cash flows and reinvestment income. The assumed earned rates are used to discount the future cash flows. For 2008 the projection assumes that the current bond yields at 31 December 2008 of 1.4 per cent trend towards 5.5 per cent at 31 December 2018. This compares to the 2007 results for which the projections assumed the then current bond yields of around 2.5 per cent would trend towards 5.5 per cent at 31 December 2013. Under the liability adequacy testing applied for IFRS the change of progression period has no effect on the carrying value of the deferred acquisition costs or liability to policyholders.


The liability adequacy test is more sensitive to changes in the expected long-term rate, further delays in the assumed progression period, or a combination thereof. However, as explained in note R, on 20 February 2009 the Company announced the intended transfer of the legacy agency book and agency force in Taiwan to China Life Insurance of Taiwan.


(b)    Deferral and amortisation of acquisition costs


Under IFRS, the basis of accounting for insurance assets and liabilities reflects 'grandfathered' GAAP under the Modified Statutory Basis. In general, this requires the deferral and amortisation of acquisition costs in line with the emergence of margins. In 2008, the basis of deferral and amortisation has been adjusted for a number of territories to better reflect the MSB requirement as follows:


For the India life operation, reflecting the initial development stage of the business, acquisition costs had previously not been deferred. In 2008, £19 million deferral of acquisition costs, net of amortisation in the year, has been established.


For the Korea life business, the deferral of acquisition costs had previously followed the local regulatory basis as being an appropriate proxy for the MSB basis. The regulatory basis is subject to constraints in respect of assumptions for expense loadings, the amortisation period, and the DAC balance not being higher than the cash surrender value. This basis is no longer appropriate and on adjusting the basis £9 million of DAC has been established that reflects a revised estimate of the 1 January 2008 balance and a change of £26 million for current year acquisition costs (net of amortisation) for applying the more appropriate basis.


For Singapore, refinements have been made with a £21 million benefit (of which £7 million relates to the 1 January 2008 position) where the local risk based capital approach does not provide an appropriate basis of implicit allowance for acquisition costs for certain products.


In Hong Kong, adjustments have been made with a net overall effect of £10 million.


(ii)    US operations


(a)    Measurement basis for embedded derivatives of variable annuity business 


There were no changes of assumptions that had a material effect on the Jackson results. However, there has been a significant change of estimation technique for two aspects of the basis of measuring 'embedded derivatives' for Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) features of Jackson's variable annuity products and the reinsurance of the Guaranteed Minimum Income Benefit (GMIB). The two aspects are for the application of:


(i)    Implied current equity volatility levels rather than historic long-term average levels, which had been applied previously, and


(ii)    The reference basis for determining the rate of discount future cash flows in the projection of the effect of the guarantees. The change is to apply AA corporate bond rates based off appropriate Merrill Lynch indices, rather than LIBOR based swap rates that, in 2008, had become both anomalously low and distorted by comparison to US Treasury bond curve rates. In broad terms, corporate AA rates were approximately 400 basis points higher than the LIBOR based swap rates at the end of 2008. Similarly, at the beginning of 2008 corporate AA rates were approximately 100 basis points higher than the LIBOR based swap rate.


The effect of the change in respect of equity volatility is to increase the total loss for 2008 for Jackson by £126 million. The effect of the change for the reference basis for discounting is to reduce the total loss by £173 million.  


(b)    Deferred acquisition cost

  • Income statement - amortisation for variable annuity business

Under IFRS 4, the Group applies US GAAP to the insurance assets and liabilities of Jackson Under the US GAAP standard FAS 97, acquisition costs for Jackson's fixed and variable annuity business are deferred and then amortised in line with the expected emergence of margins. The amortisation profile is dependant on assumptions of which, for variable annuity business, the key assumption is the expected level of equity market returns. For 2008 and recent previous years a rate of 8.4 per cent has been applied using, as is industry practice, a mean reversion methodology.


The mean reversion methodology is applied with the objective of adjusting the amortisation of deferred acquisition costs that would otherwise be highly volatile for the fact that the expected level of future gross profits fluctuates for altered variable annuity asset values arising from changes in equity market levels at the end of each reporting period.


The mean reversion methodology achieves this objective by dynamic adjustment to the level of expectations of short-term future investment returns. Under the methodology the projected returns for the next five years are, for the purposes of determining the amortisation profile, set so that normally combined with the actual returns for the current and preceding two years the average rate of return is 8.4 per cent. The mean reversion methodology does, however, include a cap of 15 per cent per annum on the project return for each of the next five years. For 2008 this capping effect applied to restrict the projected returns below the rate of approximately 20 per cent per annum level that would have otherwise applied. Projected returns after the next five years are set at 8.4 per cent.


In 2008, US equity market indices fell by some 38.5 per cent. If there had been no mean reversion methodology in place there would have been an increased amortisation charge of approximately £250 million.


However, as noted above, the mean reversion methodology allows for a substantial, but not complete, recovery of the lost fund value. As a result, DAC amortisation, reflected in the 2008 results after incorporating the mean reversion, has instead increased by some £140 million, of which £40 million arises due to the capping feature.

  • Statement of changes in equity - 'shadow DAC adjustments'

Consequent upon the negative unrealised valuation movement in 2008 of £(2,710) million (2007: £(244) million) there is a credit of £1,070 million (2007: £88 million) for altered 'shadow' DAC amortisation booked within the statement of changes in equity. These adjustments reflect the changes in the pattern of reported gross profits that would have happened if the assets had been sold crystallising the loss, and the proceeds reinvested at correspondingly higher curve yields. 


In the event of further unrealised losses, this dynamic would be constrained under two circumstances. Firstly, the DAC asset would not be written up any further beyond the original deferred amount plus a provision for interest accrual on the asset. Secondly, and more generally, the write up of DAC would be constrained if not supported by expectations of future profitability. 


(iii)    UK insurance operations - annuity business


(a)    Allowance for credit risk


For IFRS reporting, the results for UK shareholder-backed annuity business are particularly sensitive to the allowances made for credit risk. The allowance is reflected in the deduction from the valuation rate of interest for discounting projected future annuity payments to policyholders that would have otherwise applied. The valuation rate that is applied includes a liquidity premium that reflects the residual element of current bond spreads over swap rates after providing for the credit risk allowance.


The weighted components of the bond spread over swap rates for shareholder-backed fixed and linked annuity business for PRIL based on the asset mix at that date on the IFRS basis at 31 December 2008 are as follows:


2008

Pillar I 

regulatory 

basis

(bps)

Adjustment from regulatory

to IFRS basis

(bps)

IFRS

(bps)

Bond spread over swap rates (note (i))

323

-

323

Credit risk allowance




    Long-term expected defaults (note (ii))

15

-

15

    Long-term credit risk premium (note (iii))

11

-

11

    Short-term allowance for credit risk (note (iv))

54

(25)

29

Total credit risk allowance

80

(25)

55

Liquidity premium

243

25

268


By comparison, for 2007, the weighted components of the bond spread over swap rates for shareholder-backed fixed and linked annuity business for PRIL on the IFRS basis at 31 December 2007 based on the asset mix of the portfolio at that date were as follows:


2007

Pillar I 

regulatory 

basis

(bps)

Adjustment from

regulatory

to IFRS basis

(bps)

IFRS

(bps)

Bond spread over swap rates (note (i))

76

-

76

Credit risk allowance




    Long-term expected defaults (note (ii))

13

-

13

    Long-term credit risk premium (note (iii))

10

(3)

7

    Short-term allowance for credit risk (note (iv))

10

(10)

-

Total credit risk allowance

33

(13)

20

Liquidity premium

43

13

56


Notes

(i)      Bond spread over swap rates reflect market observed data to credit spreads.

(ii)     Long-term expected defaults; this is derived by applying Moody's data from 1970 to 2004 uplifted by between 100 per cent (B) and 200
          per cent (AAA) according to credit rating on the annuity asset portfolio. The credit rating assigned to each asset held is based on
          external credit rating and for this purpose the credit rating assigned to each asset held is the lowest credit rating published by Moody's,
          Standard and Poors and Fitch.

(iii)    Long-term credit risk premium; this provides compensation against the risk of potential volatility in the level of defaults and is derived by
          applying the 95
th percentile from Moody's data from 1970 to 2004 to the annuity asset portfolio.

(iv)     During the second half of 2007, corporate bond spreads widened significantly and the methodology was reviewed to ensure that it still
          made appropriate allowance for credit risk. As a result of this review a 
short-term allowance for credit risk was established to allow for
          the concern that credit ratings applied by rating agencies to individual bonds might be over optimistic.  

The short-term allowance for credit risk assumed in the Pillar I solvency valuation has been determined as 25 per cent of the increase in corporate bond spreads (as estimated from the movements in published corporate bond indices) since 31 December 2006.

The approach for IFRS, however, aims to establish liabilities that are closer to 'best estimate'. The very prudent Pillar I regulatory basis reflects the overriding objective of ensuring sufficient provisions and capital to ensure payments to policyholders can be made.  In previous years long-term IFRS default assumptions where set mid-way between the EEV and Pillar I assumptions. At 31 December 2008, in light of the increase uncertainty surrounding future credit default experience, the IFRS long-term assumptions have been strengthened to bring them into line with the long-term Pillar I default assumptions. In addition a short-term allowance for credit risk has been established but at a lower level than allowed for in the Pillar I regulatory basis.

In total, for 2008, the effect of changes to the allowance for credit risk and the effect of portfolio rebalancing gives rise to a charge of £23 million. This amount comprises a charge of £413 million for additional credit risk allowance in line with the assumptions shown above for the portfolio as a whole. Partially offsetting this is a credit of £390 million for the effect of £2.billion of portfolio rebalancing to more closely align with management benchmark. The credit reflects the additional yield expected after allowing for additional credit risk arising from the rebalancing.


(b)    Mortality assumptions and margins in the liabilities


Recent mortality experience has been in line with expectations and no change is therefore required to the overall strength of mortality assumptions at 31 December 2008. However, current mortality assumptions have been rebalanced across different categories of business so that they are more closely aligned to the actual experience of each product category. The overall effect of rebalancing the assumptions between different product groups is financially neutral.  


The 2007 results for shareholder-backed annuity business were determined after making changes to mortality assumptions with a resulting charge of £276 million and releasing excess margins in the aggregate liabilities that had previously been set aside as an indirect extra allowance for longevity related risks of £310 million.



F    Short-term fluctuations in investment returns on shareholder-backed business




2008

2007



£m

£m

Insurance operations:



Asian (note (ii))

(200)

(71)

US (note (iii))

(1,058)

(18)

UK (note (iv))

(212)

(47)

Other operations (note (v))

(313)

(1)

Total (note (i))

(1,783)

(137)

Notes

(i)    General

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for 2008 primarily reflect temporary market value movements on the portfolio of investments held by the Group's shareholder-backed operations. Default losses were incurred during 2008 in respect of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, with total losses (including losses on disposalfor these in respect of the Group's shareholder-backed business operations being £110 million and £91 million respectively of which the majority was incurred in Jackson. Excluding Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual there was only one other default in 2008 which resulted in a loss of £5 million. There were no default losses in 2007.


(ii)    Asian insurance operations

The fluctuations for Asian operations in 2008 primarily relate to £(81) million for Vietnam, reflecting a significant fall in the Vietnamese bond and equity markets, and £(65) million for Taiwan, which reflects the decrease in Taiwanese equity markets and a £(40) million reduction in the value of an investment in a CDO fund. For 2007, the £(71) million of short-term fluctuations primarily reflect value movements in Taiwan on the value of debt securities arising from increases in interest rates and a £30 million reduction in the value of an investment in a CDO fund, partially offset by the effects of strong equity market movements in Vietnam.







(iii)    US insurance operations

The short-term fluctuations in investment returns for US insurance operations for the year comprise the following items:


2008

2007



£m

£m

Short-term fluctuations relating to debt securities:



Charges in the year



Defaults

(78)

0

Losses on sales of impaired and deteriorating bonds

(130)

(51)

Bond write downs

(419)

(35)

Recoveries / reversals

3

8



(624)

(78) 

Less: Risk margin charge included in operating profit based on longer-term investment returns

54

48


(570)

(30)

Interest related realised (losses) gains:



Arising in the year

(25)

31

Less: Amortisation of gains and losses arising in current and prior years to operating profit based     on longer-term investment returns

(28)

(37)


(53)

(6)

Related change to amortisation of deferred acquisition costs

88

9

Total short-term fluctuation related to debt securities

(535)

(27)

Derivatives (other than equity related): market value movement (net of related change to amortisation         of deferred acquisition costs) *

(369)

(19)

Equity type investments : actual less longer-term return (net of related change to amortisation of             deferred acquisition costs)

(69)

42

Other items (net of related change to amortisation of deferred acquisition costs) **

(85)

(14)

Total

(1,058)

(18)

* The £369 million value movement is for freestanding derivatives held to manage the fixed annuity and other general account business. Under IAS 39, unless hedge accounting is applied value movements on derivatives are recognised in the income statement. Except in respect of variable annuity business, the value movements on derivatives held by Jackson are separately identified within short-term fluctuations in investment returns.  

Derivative value movements in respect of variable annuity business are included within the operating profit based on longer-term investment returns to broadly match with the commercial effects to which the variable annuity derivative programme relates.

For the derivatives programme attaching to the fixed annuity and other general account business the Group has continued in its approach of not seeking to apply hedge accounting under IAS 39. This decision reflects the inherent constraints of IAS 39 for hedge accounting investments and life assurance assets and liabilities under 'grandfathered' US GAAP under IFRS 4.

** The £85 million charge for 2008 for other items shown above comprises £70 million for the difference between the charge for embedded derivatives included in the operating result and the charge to the total result and £15 million of other items.  For embedded derivatives the operating result reflects the application of 10-year average AA corporate bond rate curves and a static historical equity volatility assumption.  The total result reflects the application of year-end AA corporate bond rate curves and current equity volatility levels. Additional details are explained in note E(ii)(a).


In addition, for US insurance operations, included within the statement of changes in equity, is a net reduction (translated at the 2008 year-end exchange rate of 1.44) in the value of debt securities classified as available-for-sale of £2,710 million (2007: £244 million). This reduction reflects the effect of widened credit spreads and global credit concerns partially offset by the effect of reductions in US interest rates and a steepening yield curve. These temporary market value movements do not reflect defaults or impairments. Additional details on the movement in the value of the Jackson portfolio are included in note N.


(iv)    UK insurance operations

The short-term fluctuations charge for UK insurance operations for 2008 of £212 million reflects £170 million for asset value movements, principally for shareholder-backed annuity business, and £42 million for the effect of credit downgrades on the calculation of liabilities for shareholder-backed annuity business in PRIL and the PAC non-profit sub-fund, as discussed in note E(iii)(a).  The short-term fluctuations charge for 2007 arose mostly in PRIL. The fluctuations principally reflected the impact of widened credit spreads on the corporate bond securities backing the shareholders' equity of the business.


(v)    Other

The charge of £313 million for short-term fluctuations for other operations arises from:



2008 £m

Sale of investment in India mutual fund in May 2008 giving rise to a transfer to operating profit of £47m for the crystallised gain, and value reduction in the period, prior to sale, of £24m

(71)

Unrealised value movements on swaps held centrally to manage Group assets and liabilities

(38)

Unrealised value movements on Prudential Capital's bond portfolio

(190)

Unrealised value movements on a centrally held investment

(14)


(313)


G    Tax credit


The total tax credit of £1,683 million for 2008 (2007charge of £349 million) comprises a credit of £1,758 million (2007charge of £28 million) for UK tax and a charge of £75 million (2007: £321 million) for overseas tax. This tax credit comprises tax attributable to policyholders and unallocated surplus of with-profits funds, unit-linked policies and shareholders. The tax credit attributable to shareholders of £59 million for 2008 (2007charge of £354 million) comprises a credit of £95 million (2007charge of £148 million) for UK tax and a charge of £36 million (2007: £206 million) for overseas tax.


A tax credit related to discontinued banking operations, which was all attributable to shareholders, amounted to £19 million in 2007.


In April 2008 the standard corporation tax rate for the UK changed from 30 per cent to 28 per cent. Deferred tax at the end of 2007 for UK operations had been provided at the new rate of 28 per cent on the basis that materially all of the temporary differences are expected to reverse once the new rate took effect. The effect on the deferred tax assets and liabilities at 31 December 2007 was £20 million.



H    Discontinued operations


Discontinued operations for 2007 related entirely to UK banking operations following the sale on 1 May 2007 of Egg Banking plc to Citi.


The profit from discontinued operations of £241 million comprises an operating loss based on longer-term investment returns for the period of ownership of £68 million, a tax credit on the loss of £19 million and a profit on sale (both before and after tax) of £290 million.



I    Supplementary analysis of earnings per share from continuing operations


Earnings per share (in pence)

2008

2007

From operating profit based on longer-term investment returns after related tax and minority interests

42.5p

33.3p

Adjustment from post-tax longer-term investment returns to post-tax actual investment returns (after related minority interests)

(58.1)p

(4.5)p

Adjustment for post-tax shareholders' share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes

(0.4)p

0.0p

Based on (loss) profit from continuing operations after tax and minority interests

(16.0)p

28.8p



J    Dividend


A final dividend for 2008 of 12.91p per share was proposed by the directors on 18 March 2009. Subject to shareholder approval, the dividend will be paid on 22 May 2009 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 14 April 2009This dividend will absorb an estimated £322 million of shareholders' funds. A scrip dividend alternative will be offered to shareholders.

















K    Balance sheet analysis


(i)    Group balance sheet - analysis by business unit


For an appreciation of the shareholder exposure to investment value movements it is necessary to distinguish the effects of fund structure and type of business for the Group's operations.

 


Insurance operations

Total insurance operations

Asset management operations 

Unallocated to a segment (central operations)

Intra-group eliminations

31 Dec 2008 Group total 

31 Dec 2007

Group

total


UK

US

Asia




 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Assets



 







Intangible assets     attributable to     shareholders):










Goodwill

-

-

111 

111 

1,230 



1,341 

1,341 

Deferred acquisition     costs and other     intangible assets

134 

3,962 

1,247 

5,343 

 

 

5,349 

2,836 

Total

134 

3,962 

1,358 

5,454 

1,236 

-

-

6,690 

4,177 

Intangible assets     attributable to with-    profits funds:










In respect of acquired     subsidiaries for     venture fund and     other investment     purposes

174 

-

-

174 

-



174 

192 

Deferred acquisition     costs and other     intangible assets

13 

-

113 

126 

-

-

 

126 

19 

Total

187 

-

113 

300 

-

-

-

300 

211 

Total

321 

3,962 

1,471 

5,754 

1,236 

-

-

6,990 

4,388 

Deferred tax assets 

513 

1,969 

101 

2,583 

160 

143 


2,886 

951 

Other non-investment     and non-cash assets 

4,962 

1,819 

1,416 

8,197 

135 

3,553 

(5,608)

6,277 

5,012 

Investment of long-term     business and other     operations:










Investment properties

11,959 

13 

20 

11,992 

-

-


11,992 

13,688 

Investments accounted     for using the equity     method

-

-

-

-

-

10 


10 

12 

Loans and receivables

1,902 

5,121 

1,705 

8,728 

1,763 

-


10,491 

7,924 

Equity securities and     portfolio holdings in     unit trusts

38,880 

15,142 

8,077 

62,099 

23 

-


62,122 

86,157 

Debt securities (see note     M for analysis of     credit quality)

58,871 

24,249 

11,113 

94,233 

991 

-


95,224 

83,984 

Other investments

4,160 

1,256 

144 

5,560 

462 

279 


6,301 

4,396 

Deposits

6,090 

390 

750 

7,230 

64 

-

 

7,294 

7,889 

Total Investments

121,862 

46,171 

21,809 

189,842 

3,303 

289 

-

193,434 

204,050 

Held-for-sale assets 

-

-

-

-

-

-


-

30 

Cash and cash     equivalents 

2,571 

246 

1,501 

4,318 

1,472 

165 

 

5,955 

4,951 

Total assets

130,229 

54,167 

26,298 

210,694 

6,306 

4,150 

(5,608)

215,542 

219,382 














Equity and liabilities










Equity










Shareholders' equity 

1,655 

1,698 

2,167 

5,520 

1,642 

(2,104)


5,058 

6,062 

Minority interests

47 

-

54 

 

 

55 

102 

Total equity

1,702 

1,698 

2,174 

5,574 

1,643 

(2,104)

-

5,113 

6,164 

Liabilities










Policyholder liabilities     and unallocated     surplus of with-profits     funds:










Insurance contract     liabilities 

72,756 

42,476 

20,798 

136,030 

-

-


136,030 

132,776 

Investment contract     liabilities with     discretionary     participation features 

23,367 

-

79 

23,446 

-

-


23,446 

29,550 

Investment contract     liabilities without     discretionary     participation features

11,584 

2,885 

32 

14,501 

-

-


14,501 

14,032 

Unallocated surplus of     with-profits funds     (reflecting application     of 'realistic' basis     provisions for UK     regulated with-profits     funds) 

8,254 

-

160 

8,414 

-

-

 

8,414 

13,959 

Total policyholder     liabilities and     unallocated surplus of     with-profits funds

115,961 

45,361 

21,069 

182,391 

-

-

-

182,391 

190,317 

Core structural     borrowings of     shareholder-financed     operations:










Subordinated debt

-

-

-

-

-

1,987 


1,987 

1,570 

Other

-

173 

-

173 

-

798 

 

971 

922 

Total

-

173 

 

173 

-

2,785 

-

2,958 

2,492 

Operational borrowings     attributable to     shareholder-financed     operations 

54 

511 

130 

695 

1,278 


1,977 

3,081 

Borrowings attributable     to with-profits funds

1,308 

-

-

1,308 

-

-


1,308 

987 

Deferred tax liabilities

1,421 

1,337 

441

3,199 

11 

19 


3,229 

3,402 

Other non-insurance     liabilities

9,783 

5,087 

2,484 

17,354 

4,648 

2,172 

(5,608)

18,566 

12,939 

Total liabilities

128,527 

52,469 

24,124 

205,120 

4,663 

6,254 

(5,608)

210,429 

213,218 

Total equity and     liabilities

130,229 

54,167 

26,298 

210,694 

6,306 

4,150 

(5,608)

215,542 

219,382 















 (ii)    Group balance sheet - analysis by type of business




Shareholder-backed





Participating funds

Unit-linked and variable annuity

Non-linked business

Asset management operations 

Unallocated to a segment (central operations)

Intra-group eliminations

31 Dec 2008 Group total 

31 Dec 2007 Group total

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Assets


 







Intangible assets     attributable to     shareholders:









Goodwill

-

-

111 

1,230 

-

-

1,341 

1,341

Deferred acquisition     costs and other     intangible assets

-

-

5,343 

-

-

5,349 

2,836

Total

-

-

5,454 

1,236 

-

-

6,690 

4,177

Intangible assets     attributable to with-    profits funds:









In respect of acquired     subsidiaries for     venture fund and     other investment     purposes

174 

-

-

-



174 

192

Deferred acquisition     costs and other     intangible assets

126 

-

-

-

-

-

126 

19

Total

300 

-

-

-

-

-

300 

211

Total

300 

-

5,454 

1,236 

-

-

6,990 

4,388

Deferred tax assets

279 

-

2,304 

160 

143 

-

2,886 

951

Other non-investment     and non-cash assets 

3,095 

579 

4,523 

135 

3,553 

(5,608)

6,277 

5,012

Investment of long-    term business and     other operations:









Investment properties

9,911 

710 

1,371 

-

-

-

11,992 

13,688

Investments     accounted for using     the equity method

-

-

-

-

10 

-

10 

12

Loans and receivables

2,154 

113 

6,461 

1,763 

-

-

10,491 

7,924

Equity securities and     portfolio holdings in     unit trusts

31,821 

29,211 

1,067 

23 

-

-

62,122 

86,157

Debt securities (see     section M for     analysis of credit     quality)

42,965 

6,298 

44,970 

991 

-

-

95,224 

83,984

Other investments

3,768 

204 

1,588 

462 

279 

-

6,301 

4,396

Deposits

4,828 

903 

1,499 

64 

-

-

7,294 

7,889

Total Investments

95,447 

37,439 

56,956 

3,303 

289 

-

193,434 

204,050

Held-for-sale assets 

-

-


-

-

-

-

30

Cash and cash     equivalents 

1,733 

1,148 

1,437

1,472 

165 

-

5,955 

4,951

Total assets

100,854 

39,166 

70,674 

6,306 

4,150 

(5,608)

215,542 

219,382












Equity and     liabilities









Equity









Shareholders' equity 

-

-

5,520 

1,642 

(2,104)

-

5,058 

6,062

Minority interests

47 

-

 

 

55 

102

Total equity

47 

-

5,527 

1,643 

(2,104)

-

5,113 

6,164

Liabilities









Policyholder liabilities     and unallocated     surplus of with-    profits funds:









Insurance contract     liabilities 

58,310 

27,799 

49,921 

-

-

-

136,030 

132,776

Investment contract     liabilities with     discretionary     participation     features 

23,446 

-

-

-

-

-

23,446 

29,550

Investment contract     liabilities without     discretionary     participation     features

32 

10,277 

4,192 

-

-

-

14,501 

14,032

Unallocated surplus of     with-profits funds     (reflecting     application of     'realistic' basis     provisions for UK     regulated with-    profits funds) 

8,414 

-

 

-

-

-

8,414 

13,959

Total policyholder     liabilities and     unallocated surplus     of with-profits     funds

90,202 

38,076 

54,113 

-

-

-

182,391 

190,317

Core structural     borrowings of     shareholder-    financed     operations:









Subordinated debt

-

-

-

-

1,987 

-

1,987 

1,695

Other

-

-

173

-

798 

-

971 

797

Total

-

-

173 

-

2,785 

-

2,958 

2,492

Operational     borrowings     attributable to     shareholder-    financed operations 

-

-

695 

1,278 

-

1,977 

3,081

Borrowings     attributable to with-    profits funds

1,308 

-

-

-

-

-

1,308 

987

Deferred tax liabilities

1,225 

-

1,974 

11 

19 

-

3,229 

3,402

Other non-insurance     liabilities

8,072 

1,090 

8,192 

4,648 

2,172 

(5,608)

18,566 

12,939

Total liabilities

100,807 

39,166 

65,147 

4,663 

6,254 

(5,608)

210,429 

213,218

Total equity and     liabilities

100,854 

39,166 

70,674 

6,306 

4,150 

(5,608)

215,542 

219,382



L    Loans portfolio


Loans are accounted for at amortised cost unless impaired. The amounts included in the balance sheet are analysed as follows:


 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
Insurance operations
 
 
UK (note(i))
1,902
1,245
US (note (ii))
5,121
3,258
Asia (note (iii))
1,705
1,087
Asset management operations
 
 
M&G (note (iv))
1,763
2,334
Total
10,491
7,924

 

Notes
(i)    UK insurance operations
The loans of the Group’s UK insurance operations of £1,902 million at 31 December 2008 (2007: £1,245 million) comprise mortgage loans of £701 million, policy loans of £29 million and other loans of £1,172 million (2007: £449 million, £35 million and £761 million respectively). The mortgage loans are collateralised by properties. Other loans are all commercial loans and comprise mainly syndicated loans held by the PAC with-profits fund.


(ii)    US insurance operations

The loans of the Group's US insurance operations of £5,121 million at 31 December 2008 (2007: £3,258 million) comprise mortgage loans of £4,534 million and policy loans of £587 million (2007: £2,841 million and £417 million respectively). All of the mortgage loans are commercial mortgage loans which are collateralised by properties. The property types are mainly industrial, multi-family residential, suburban office, retail and hotel.


The US insurance operations' mortgage loan portfolio does not include any single-family residential mortgage loans and is therefore not exposed to the risk of defaults associated with residential sub-prime mortgage loans.


The policy loans are fully secured by individual life insurance policies or annuity policies.  These loans are accounted for at amortised cost, less any impairment.


(iii)    Asian insurance operations

The loans of the Group's Asian insurance operations of £1,705 million at 31 December 2008 (2007: £1,087 millioncomprise mortgage loans of £238 million, policy loans of £675 million and other loans of £792 million (2007: £132 million, £430 million and £525 million respectively). The mortgage and policy loans are secured by properties and life insurance policies respectively.


The majority of the other loans are commercial loans held by the Malaysian operation and which are all investment graded by two local rating agencies.


(iv)    M&G

The M&G loans of £1,763 million relate to bridging loan finance managed by Prudential Capital. The bridging loan finance assets generally have no external credit ratings available, with internal ratings prepared by the Group's asset management operations as part of the risk management process rating £1,100 million BBB+ to BBB- and £663 million BB+ to BB-.



M    Debt securities portfolio


Debt securities are accounted for at fair value. The amounts included in the balance sheet are analysed as follows, with further information relating to the credit quality of the Group's debt securities at 31 December 2008 provided in the notes below.

 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
Insurance operations
 
 
UK (note(i))
58,871
57,180
US (note (ii))
24,249
19,002
Asia (note (iii))
11,113
6,920
Asset management operations (note (iv))
991
882
Total
95,224
83,984

Notes

In the tables below, Standard and Poor's (S&P) ratings have been used where available. For securities where S&P ratings are not available, those produced by Moody's and then Fitch have been used as an alternative.


 (i)    UK insurance operations

 
 
 
PAC-with profits sub-fund
 
Other funds and subsidiaries
 
UK insurance operations
 
Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund
Excluding Prudential Annuities Limited
Prudential Annuities Limited
Total
 
Unit-linked assets and liabilities
Annuity and other long-term business
 
 
 2008
Total
 
 2007
Total
 
£m
£m
£m
£m
 
£m
£m
 
£m
£m
S&P – AAA
1,139
5,765
3,176
8,941
 
2,866
6,035
 
18,981
21,556
S&P – AA+ to AA-
318
1,817
1,389
3,206
 
423
2,065
 
6,012
6,173
S&P – A+ to A-
1,058
5,804
3,295
9,099
 
815
4,957
 
15,929
12,557
S&P – BBB+ to BBB-
789
3,875
919
4,794
 
210
1,620
 
7,413
5,409
S&P – Other
152
794
16
810
 
71
-
 
1,033
942
 
3,456
18,055
8,795
26,850
 
4,385
14,677
 
49,368
46,637
Moody’s – Aaa
111
344
89
433
 
9
128
 
681
1,021
Moody’s – Aa1 to Aa3
66
353
255
608
 
-
159
 
833
587
Moody’s – A1 to A3
43
222
232
454
 
-
181
 
678
944
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3
35
146
138
284
 
-
135
 
454
490
Moody’s – Other
4
136
12
148
 
-
10
 
162
410
 
259
1,201
726
1,927
 
9
613
 
2,808
3,452
Fitch
34
181
188
369
 
-
157
 
560
682
Other
469
2,221
2,179
4,400
 
15
1,251
 
6,135
6,409
Total debt securities
4,218
21,658
11,888
33,546
 
4,409
16,698
 
58,871
57,180


Where no external ratings are available, internal ratings produced by the Group's asset management operation, which are prepared on the Company's assessment of a comparable basis to external ratings, are used where possible. Of the £6,135 million total debt securities held at 31 December 2008 (2007: £6,409 millionwhich are not externally rated, £2,325 million were internally rated AAA to A-, £3,149 million were internally rated BBB to B- and £661 million were unrated (2007: £2,972 million, £2,844 million and £593 million respectively). The majority of unrated debt security investments were held in SAIF and the PAC with-profits fund and relate to convertible debt and other investments which are not covered by ratings analysts nor have an internal rating attributed to them. 


The change in ratings for annuity and other long-term business incorporates the effect of the portfolio rebalancing discussed in note E(iii)(a).


(ii)    US insurance operations

 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
S&P – AAA
5,321
3,896
S&P – AA+ to AA-
853
1,187
S&P – A+ to A-
5,244
3,657
S&P – BBB+ to BBB-
7,077
5,415
S&P – Other
1,321
1,113
 
19,816
15,268
Moody’s – Aaa
458
549
Moody’s – Aa1 to Aa3
100
118
Moody’s – A1 to A3
111
47
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3
100
79
Moody’s – Other
95
78
 
864
871
Fitch
464
380
Other*
3,105
2,483
Total debt securities
24,249
19,002





* The amounts within Other which are not rated by S&P, Moody or Fitch have the following National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) classifications:

 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
NAIC 1
1,334
1,079
NAIC 2
1,650
1,311
NAIC 3-6
121
93
 
3,105
2,483


(iii)    Asian insurance operations

 
With-profits business
Unit-linked assets and liabilities
Other business
2008
Total
2007 Total
 
£m
£m
£m
£m
£m
S&P – AAA
2,085
341
206
2,632
2,284
S&P – AA+ to AA-
997
303
2,446
3,746
1,994
S&P – A+ to A-
640
96
72
808
675
S&P – BBB+ to BBB-
198
184
520
902
193
S&P – Other
77
63
113
253
149
 
3,997
987
3,357
8,341
5,295
Moody’s – Aaa
382
54
58
494
201
Moody’s – Aa1 to Aa3
77
20
11
108
45
Moody’s – A1 to A3
80
287
31
398
28
Moody’s – Baa1 to Baa3
50
6
4
60
19
Moody’s – Other
8
39
3
50
58
 
597
406
107
1,110
351
Fitch
7
30
4
41
0
Other
600
466
555
1,621
1,274
Total debt securities
5,201
1,889
4,023
11,113
6,920


The increase in holdings of debt securities for Asian insurance operations was principally due to exchange rate movements, a rise in the number of unit trusts and similar funds requiring consolidation and portfolio changes from equities to bonds.


Of the £555 million (2007: £598 million) of debt securities for other business which are not rated in the table above, £231 million (2007: £317 million) are in respected of government bonds, £221 million (2007: £83 million) corporate bonds rated as investment grade by local external ratings agencies and nil (2007: £71 million) structured deposits issued by banks which are themselves rated but where the specific deposits have not been.


(iv)    Asset management operations

Total debt securities for asset management operations of £991 million (2007: £882 million)include £959 million (2007: £841 million) related to M&G's Prudential Capital operations which were all AAA to A- where S&P rated or Aaa by Moody's.


(v)    Group exposure to holdings in asset-backed securities and monoline insurers 

(a)    Asset-backed securities


The Group's exposure to holdings in asset-backed securities, which comprise residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), CDO funds and other asset-backed securities (ABS), at 31 December 2008 is as follows:


2008

£m

Shareholder-backed operations:


UK insurance operations (note (i))

1,075

US insurance operations (note (ii))

7,464

Asian insurance operations (note (iii))

15

Other operations (note (iv))

407


8,961

With-profits operations:


UK insurance operations (note (i))

4,977

Asian insurance operations (note (iii))

328


5,305



Total

14,266

 (i)    UK insurance operations

The UK insurance operations' exposure to asset-backed securities at 31 December 2008 comprises:


2008 £m

Shareholder-backed business (70% AAA, 19% AA)

1,075

With-profits operations (74% AAA, 10% AA)

4,977

Total

6,052


The UK insurance operations' exposure to asset-backed securities is mainly made up of exposure to AAA rated securities as shown in the table above. 


All of the £1,075 million exposure of the shareholder-backed business relates to the UK market and primarily relates to investments held by PRIL. £2,721 million of the £4,977 million (2007: £5,565 million) exposure of the with-profits operations relates to exposure to the UK market while the remaining £2,256 million relates to exposure to the US market. 


(ii)    US insurance operations

US insurance operations' exposure to asset-backed securities at 31 December 2008 comprises:


2008 £m

RMBS Sub-prime (91% AAA, 3% AA)

291

    Alt-A (60% AAA, 15% AA)

646

    Prime (87% AAA, 5% AA)

3,572

CMBS (85% AAA, 9% AA)

1,869

CDO funds (34% AAA, 14% AA)*, including £6m exposure to sub-prime

320

ABS (31% AAA, 16% AA), including £51m exposure to sub-prime

766

Total

7,464

* Including the Group's economic interest in Piedmont and other consolidated CDO funds.


(iii)    Asian insurance operations

The Asian insurance operations' exposure to asset-backed securities is primarily held by the with-profits operations. 


The £328 million asset-backed securities exposure of the Asian with-profit operations comprises:


2008 £m

RMBS - all without sub-prime exposure

46

CMBS 

88

CDO funds and ABS

194

Total

328


The £328 million includes £259 million held by investment funds consolidated under IFRS in recognition of the control arrangements for those funds and included an amount not owned by the Group with a corresponding liability of £32 million on the balance sheet for net asset value attributable to external unit-holders in respect of these funds, which are non-recourse to the Group. Of the £328 million, 70% are investment graded by Standard & Poor's. 


(iv)    Other operations

Other operations' exposure to asset-backed securities at 31 December 2008 is held by Prudential Capital and comprises:


2008 £m

RMBS Prime (75% AAA, 10% AA)

106

CMBS (68% AAA, 20% AA)

230

CDO funds - all without sub-prime exposure (AAA)

38

ABS (92% AAA)

33

Total

407


(b)    Direct holdings in monoline insurers


The Group has no significant exposure to direct holdings in monoline insurers at 31 December 2008.






 

N    Debt securities of US insurance operations: Valuation basis, accounting presentation of gains and losses and
       securities in an unrealised loss position


(i)    Valuation basis

Under IAS 39, unless categorised as 'held to maturity' debt securities are required to be fair valued. Where available, quoted market prices are used.  However, where securities are in inactive markets, IAS 39 requires that valuation techniques be applied.  


Jackson has previously utilised prices provided by a pricing service or has used various broker quotes to value debt securities. For most securities in the portfolio this practice has continued where the valuation basis reflects either quoted prices or fair values using valuation techniques of these providers that correspond to the requirements of IAS 39.


However, the current market dislocations have caused a reassessment of the valuation process for certain securities in inactive markets. In particular, beginning at the end of the third quarter of 2008, the external prices obtained for certain asset-backed securities were deemed to be inappropriate in the current market conditions.


For the valuations at 31 December 2008Jackson has therefore utilised internal valuation models, provided by PPM America, to derive fair values of all non agency Residential Mortgage-backed Securities and Asset-backed Securities and certain Commercial Mortgage-backed securities.  The use of internal valuation models has resulted in a fair value of these securities that was higher than those provided from pricing services and brokers of £760 million on a total amortised cost of £3.5 billion.


(ii)    Accounting presentation of gains and losses

With the exception of debt securities of US insurance operations classified as 'available-for-sale' under IAS 39, unrealised value movements on the Group's investments are booked within the income statement. For with-profits operations, such value movements are reflected in changes to asset share liabilities to policyholders or the liability for unallocated surplus. For shareholder-backed operations, the unrealised value movements form part of the total return for the year booked in the profit before tax attributable to shareholders. Separately, as noted elsewhere and in note D in this announcement, and as applied previously, the Group provides a supplementary analysis of this profit distinguishing operating profit based on longer-term investment return and short-term fluctuations in investment returns.


However, for debt securities classified as 'available-for-sale', unless impaired, fair value movements are recorded as a movement in shareholder reserves direct to equity. Impairments are recorded in the income statement as shown in note F of this announcement. This classification is applied for most of the debt securities of the Group's US insurance operations.


(iii)    2008 movements in unrealised gains and losses

In general, the debt securities of the Group's US insurance operations are purchased with the intention and the ability to hold them for the longer-term. In 2008 there was a movement in the balance sheet value for these debt securities classified as available-for-sale from a net unrealised loss of £136 million to a net unrealised loss of £2,897 million. During 2008, US interest rates continued to fall and the yield curve further steepened. Offsetting the positive effect on bond values for these changes were adverse market price effects resulting from increasing credit spreads and global credit concerns. As a result of these factors, the gross unrealised gain in the balance sheet decreased from £303 million at 31 December 2007 to £281 million at 31 December 2008, while the gross unrealised loss increased from £439 million at 31 December 2007 to £3,178 million at 31 December 2008.


These features are included in the table shown below of the movements in the values of available-for-sale securities.

 
31 Dec 2008
Changes in
 unrealised appreciation*
Foreign
Exchange
translation
31 Dec 2007
 
£m
£m
£m
£m
Assets fair valued at below book value
 
 
 
 
Book value
20,600
 
 
10,730
Unrealised loss
(3,178)
(2,572)
(167)
(439)
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)
17,422
 
 
10,291
Assets fair valued at or above book value
 
 
 
 
Book value
6,296
 
 
8,041
Unrealised gain
281
(138)
116
303
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)
6,577
 
 
8,344
Total
 
 
 
 
Book value
26,896
 
 
18,771
Net unrealised (loss) gains
(2,897)
(2,710)
(51)
(136)
Fair value (as included in balance sheet)**
23,999
 
 
18,635
Reflected as part of movement in shareholders’ equity
 
 
 
 
Movement in unrealised appreciation
(2,710)
 
 
 
Exchange movements
(51)
 
 
 
 
(2,761)
 
 
 

*Translated at the closing rate of $1.44 : £1

** Debt securities for US operations included in the balance sheet of £24,249 million, and as referred to in note M, comprise £23,999 million for securities classified as available-for-sale, as shown above, and £250 million for securities of consolidated investment funds classified as fair value through profit and loss.


Included within the movement in unrealised valuation losses for the debt securities of Jackson of £2,572 million was an amount of £134 million relating to the sub-prime and Alt-A securities for which the carrying values at 31 December 2008 are shown in the note below.


(iv)    Securities in unrealised loss position

The following tables show some key attributes of those securities that are in an unrealised loss position at 31 December 2008.


(a)    Fair value of securities as a percentage of book value

The unrealised losses in the Jackson balance sheet on unimpaired securities are £3,178 million (2007: £439 million) relating to assets with fair market value and book value of £17,422 million (2007: £10,291 million) and £20,600 million (2007: £10,730 million) respectively. The following table shows the fair value of the securities in a gross unrealised loss position for various percentages of book value:


2008

2007


Fair value

 £m

Unrealised loss

£m

Fair value

 £m

Unrealised loss

£m

Between 90% and 100%

8,757

(431)

9,370

(274)

Between 80% and 90%

4,581

(809)

784

(122)

Below 80% 

4,084

(1,938)

137

(43)


17,422

(3,178)

10,291

(439)


Included within the table above, showing the fair value of securities in an unrealised loss position at 31 December 2008 as a percentage of book value, are amounts relating to sub-prime and Alt-A securities of:


2008

2007


Fair value

 £m

Unrealised loss

£m

Fair value

£m

Unrealised loss

£m

Between 90% and 100%

479

(27)

572

(24)

Between 80% and 90%

120

(19)

132

(22)

Below 80% 

192

(166)

28

(10)


791

(212)

732

(56)


 (b)    Aged analysis of unrealised losses for the periods indicated

The following table shows the age analysis of all the unrealised losses in the portfolio by reference to the length of time the securities have been in an unrealised loss position:

 
2008
2007
 
Non investment grade
Investment grade
Total
Non investment grade
Investment grade
Total
 
£m
£m
£m
£m
£m
£m
Less than 6 months
(108)
(362)
(470)
(9)
(58)
(67)
6 months to 1 year
(125)
(1,164)
(1,289)
(21)
(115)
(136)
1 year to 2 years
(154)
(622)
(776)
(2)
(21)
(23)
2 years to 3 years
(15)
(91)
(106)
(34)
(140)
(174)
More than 3 years
(61)
(476)
(537)
(2)
(37)
(39)
 
(463)
(2,715)
(3,178)
(68)
(371)
(439)


At 31 December 2008, the gross unrealised losses in the balance sheet for the sub-prime and Alt-A securities in an unrealised loss position were £212 million (2007: £56 million), as shown above in note (a). Of these losses £91 million (2007: £37 millionrelate to securities that have been in an unrealised loss position for less than one year and £121 million (2007: £19 million) to securities that have been in an unrealised loss position for more than one year.


(c)    Unrealised losses by maturity of security

 
 
 
2008
£m
2007
£m
Less than 1 year
 
 
(21)
(1)
1 year to 5 years
 
 
(537)
(54)
5 years to 10 years
 
 
(1,236)
(164)
More than 10 years
 
 
(395)
(60)
Mortgage-backed and other debt securities
 
 
(989)
(160)
Total
 
 
(3,178)
(439)


O    Net core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations

 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
Core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations:
 
 
Perpetual subordinated capital securities (Innovative Tier 1*)
1,059
763
Subordinated notes (Lower Tier 2*)
928
807
Senior debt ***:
 
 
     2009
249
248
     2023
300
300
     2029
249
249
Holding company total
2,785
2,367
Jackson surplus notes (Lower Tier 2*)
173
125
Total (per consolidated balance sheet)
2,958
2,492
Less: Holding company** cash and short-term investments (recorded within the consolidated
    balance sheet)
(1,165)
(1,456)
Net core structural borrowings of shareholder-financed operations
1,793
1,036

*     These debt classifications are consistent with the treatment of capital for regulatory purposes, as defined in the
       FSA handbook.

**   Including central finance subsidiaries.
*** The senior debt ranks above subordinated debt in the event of liquidation.


P    Other borrowings

 
2008
2007
 
£m
£m
Operational borrowings attributable to shareholder-financed operations
 
 
Borrowings in respect of short-term fixed income securities programmes
1,278
2,477
Non-recourse borrowings of US operations
511
591
Other borrowings
188
13
Total
1,977
3,081

Borrowings attributable to with-profits operations
 
 
Non-recourse borrowings of consolidated investment funds
1,161
789
£100m 8.5%undated subordinated guaranteed bonds of the Scottish Amicable Insurance Fund
100
100
Other borrowings (predominantly obligations under finance leases)
47
98
Total
1,308
987



Q    Adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 for accounting for pension schemes            


As mentioned in note B, the Group has adopted IFRIC 14 for pension schemes in 2008. IFRIC 14 gives guidance on assessing the limit in IAS 19 on the amount of surplus in a defined benefit pension scheme that can be recognised as an asset thereby providing reliable and more relevant information. The recognition of an asset is restricted to those that are demonstrably recoverable, either by refund or reduction in future contributions. It also addresses when a minimum funding requirement might give rise to a liability. The assessment of recoverability and any additional liability is made by reference to the terms of the Trust Deed of pension schemes and, unless substantively enacted or contractually agreed, with no account taken of potential changes to current funding arrangements. 


This adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 has had an effect on the Group's interest in the financial position of the Group's main UK defined benefit pension scheme, the Prudential Staff Pension Scheme (PSPS)The change relates solely to the accounting measurement of the Group's interest in the financial position of PSPS. Adoption of the principles of IFRIC 14 does not affect the Group's interest in the Group's other defined benefit pension schemes. 


Under the terms of the Trust Deed, the Group has no unconditional right of refund to any surplus in PSPS. Also, the Group has no ability under the guidance in IFRIC 14 to anticipate a reduction in the level of future contributions for ongoing services from those currently being paid. In addition, the Group currently has a committed five-year deficit funding arrangement in place as agreed with the Trustees of PSPS following the last triennial valuation of PSPS as at 5 April 2005.


The asset and liabilities of PSPS are unaffected by the impact of the change in accounting policy. PSPS is managed on an economic basis for the longer-term benefit of its current and deferred pensioners and active members. The surplus in PSPS is available to absorb future adverse asset value movements and, if required, strengthening in mortality assumptions. The fluctuating nature of the surplus is demonstrated by the increase in the underlying gross surplus from £528 million at 31 December 2007 to £728 million at 31 December 2008. 


The summary effect of the adoption of IFRIC 14


In respect of the position at 31 December 2008, the Group has not recognised the underlying PSPS pension surplus of £728 million (£615 million net of deferred tax), reflecting the difference between the market value of the scheme assets and the discounted value of the liabilities, which would have otherwise been recognised as an asset on its balance sheet under the previous policy. In addition, the Group has recognised a liability for deficit funding to 5 April 2010 of £65 million (£55 million net of deferred tax) in respect of PSPS.  The amounts attributable to shareholders are £223 million (£160 million net of deferred tax) for the surplus not recognised as an asset and £20 million (£15 million net of deferred tax) for the additional liability for deficit funding. In total the impact on shareholders' equity at 31 December 2008 is a reduction of £175 million as shown below.


The 2007 comparative figures in these statutory basis results have been adjusted accordingly for the adoption of IFRIC 14.


The effect of the change on the consolidated income statement, earnings per share and consolidated balance sheet are as follows:

 
Adjustments
incorporated
in the results
Adjustments made to the previously published results
Consolidated Income Statement
2008 £m
2007 £m
 
Increase (decrease) in profit
Investment return
47
4
Benefit and claims and movement in unallocated surplus of with-profits funds
66
205
Other operating expenditure
(173)
(336)
(Loss) profit before tax (being tax attributable to shareholders’ and the policyholders’ returns)
(60)
(127)
Tax attributable to policyholders’ returns
11
24
(Loss) profit before tax attributable to shareholders
(49)
(103)
Tax attributable to shareholders’ (loss) profit
13
28
Loss from continuing operations after tax / loss for the year
(36)
(75)
 
Earnings per share
Decrease in earning per share
(in pence)
 
Basic and diluted based on (loss) profit from continuing operations attributable to equity holders of the company
(1.5)p
(3.1)p
 
 
 
 
Consolidated balance sheet
Increase (decrease) in shareholders’ equity
 
 
£m
£m
 
Deferred tax assets
10
26
 
Other debtors
(625)
(388)
 
Policyholders liability – contract liabilities (including amounts in respect of contracts classified as investment contracts under IFRS 4)
(103)
(140)
 
Unallocated surplus of with-profits funds
495
392
 
Deferred tax liabilities
113
73
 
Provisions
(65)
(102)
 
Shareholders’ equity
(175)
(139)
 

















Effect on the Group's supplementary analysis of (loss) profit and movements in shareholders' equity:

 
2008
2007
 

Previous
basis

Effect of adoption of IFRIC 14
Revised basis
As 
previously published
Effect of adoption of IFRIC 14
After 
change
 
£m
£m
£m
£m
£m
£m
Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns
1,371
(24)
1,347
1,213
(12)
1,201
Short-term fluctuations in investment returns on shareholder-backed business
(1,783)
(1,783)
(137)
(137)
Shareholders’ share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes
11
(25)
(14)
90
(91)
(1)
(Loss) profit before tax
(401)
(49)
(450)
1,166
(103)
1,063
Tax
46
13
59
(382)
28
(354)
(Loss) profit after tax
(355)
(36)
(391)
784
(75)
709
Profits from discontinued operations
241
241
Less minority interests
(5)
(5)
(3)
(3)
(Loss) profit for the year
(360)
(36)
(396)
1,022
(75)
947
Other movements in reserves
(608)
(608)
(309)
(309)
Shareholders’ equity at the beginning of the year
6,201
(139)
6,062
5,488
(64)
5,424
Shareholders’ equity at the end of the year
5,233
(175)
5,058
6,201
(139)
6,062



R    Intended sale of legacy agency book and agency force in Taiwan to China Life Insurance of Taiwan


On 20 February 2009, the Company announced that it had entered into an agreement to sell the assets and liabilities of its agency distribution business and its agency force in Taiwan to China Life Insurance Company Ltd of Taiwan for the nominal sum of NT$1 subject to regulatory approval.  In addition, the Company will invest £45 million to purchase a 9.95 per cent stake in China Life through a share placement.  The business to be transferred represents 94 per cent of Prudential's' in-force liabilities in Taiwan and includes Prudential's legacy interest rate guaranteed products with IFRS basis gross assets at 31 December 2008 of £4.5 billion.


After taking account of IFRS shareholders' funds of the business at 31 December 2008 and restructuring and other costs the Group's IFRS shareholders' funds are expected to decrease by approximately £595 million.  In addition, on completion, there will be a net increase in the Company's Insurance Group's Directive surplus of approximately £800 million.


The movement in shareholders' IFRS equity for the total Taiwan life business for 2008 comprised:

 
£m
Operating profit based on longer-term investment returns
60 
Short-term fluctuations in investment returns
(65)
Shareholders’ share of actuarial and other gains and losses on defined benefit pension schemes
(3)
Loss before tax
(8)
Total tax
(8)
Loss for the financial year
(16)
Minority interests
Investments by Parent Company (note (ii))
93
Exchange and other reserve movements
111 
Net movement
188 
Equity brought forward at 1 January 2008
289 
Equity carried forward at 31 December 2008 (note(i))
477 

 

(i)     The carrying value of the IFRS equity reflects the application of 'grandfathered' US GAAP under IFRS 4. This does not, and is
        not designed to include the cost of holding economic capital, to support the legacy in
terest rate guaranteed products as
        recognised for reporting under the Company's supplementary reporting basis under European Embedded Value principles.

(ii)    Comprising £66 million for solvency capital and £27 million for business development.



S    Deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets attributable to shareholders.


Significant costs are incurred in connection with acquiring new insurance business. Except for acquisition costs of with-profits contracts of the UK regulated with-profits funds, which are accounted for under the realistic FSA regime, these costs, which vary with, and are primarily related to, the production of new business, are capitalised and amortised against margins in future revenues on the related insurance policies. The recoverability of the asset is measured and the asset is deemed impaired if the projected future margins are less than the carrying value of the asset. To the extent that the future margins differ from those anticipated, then an adjustment to the carrying value of the deferred acquisition cost asset will be necessary.


The deferral and amortisation of acquisition costs is of most relevance to the Group's results for shareholder-financed long-term business of Jackson and Asian operations. The majority of the UK shareholder-backed business are for individual and group annuity business where the incidence of acquisition costs is negligible.


In the case of Jackson for term business, acquisition costs are deferred and amortised in line with expected premiums. For annuity business, acquisition costs are deferred and amortised in line with expected gross profits on the relevant contracts. For interest-sensitive business, the key assumption is the long-term spread between the earned rate and the rate credited to policyholders, which is based on the annual spread analysis. In addition, expected gross profits depend on mortality assumptions, assumed unit costs and terminations other than deaths (including the related charges), all of which are based on a combination of actual experience of Jackson, industry experience and future expectations. A detailed analysis of actual experience is measured by internally developed mortality studies. 


Variable annuity contracts written by Jackson may provide for guaranteed minimum death, income, or withdrawal benefit features. In general terms, liabilities for these benefits are accounted for under US GAAP by using estimates of future benefits 
and fees under best estimate assumptions. For variable annuity business the key assumption is the expected long-term level of equity market returns, which for 2008 and 2007 was 8.4 per cent per annum (net of fund management fees) determined using a mean reversion methodology. Under the mean reversion methodology, projected returns over the next five years are flexed (subject to capping) so that, combined with the actual rates of return for the current and the previous two years the 8.4 per cent rate is maintained. The projected rates of return are capped at no more than 15 per cent for each of the next five years. Further details are explained in note E(ii)(b).


These returns affect the level of future expected profits through their effects on the fee income with consequential impact on the amortisation of deferred acquisition costs as described below and the required level of provision for guaranteed minimum death benefit claims. 


For traditional life insurance contracts, provisions for future policy benefits are determined under SFAS 60 using the net level premium method and assumptions as of the issue date as to mortality, interest, policy lapses and expenses plus provisions for adverse deviation.


Except to the extent of mortality experience, which primarily affects profits through variations in claim payments and the guaranteed minimum death benefit reserves, the profits of Jackson are relatively insensitive to changes in insurance risk. 


The deferred acquisition costs and other intangible assets attributable to shareholders comprise:

 
2008 £m
2007 £m
 
 
Deferred acquisition costs relating to insurance and investment management contracts
5,205
2,757
Present value of acquired in-force business and distribution rights
144
79
 
5,349
2,836
Arising in:
 
 
UK insurance operations
134
157
US insurance operations
3,962
1,928
Asia insurance operations
1,247
745
Asset management operations
6
6
 
5,349
2,836








The movement in the year comprises:

 
2008 £m
2007 £m
 
 
Balance at 1 January
2,836
2,497
Additions
959
717
Amortisation to income statement
(551)
(424)
Exchange differences
1,035
(42)
Change in shadow DAC (note E(ii)(b))
1,070
88
Balance at 31 December
5,349
2,836



T    Group Investments and other supplementary information 


As for 2007 year-end reporting, the Company has published documents alongside the Company's preliminary announcement for the year ended 31 December 2008, entitled 'Group Investments - IFRS disclosures from the 2008 Annual Report' and 'supplementary information'. These documents include detailed analysis and explanation of the information contained the Group's financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2008 on the Group's investments and some additional unaudited information. The documents have been posted to the Company's website address at www.prudential.co.uk


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
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