Trading Statement

Old Mutual PLC 25 November 2002 OLD MUTUAL PLC Update on current trading and pre-close statement This announcement contains a report from the Board of Old Mutual plc (the Company) on trading in the ten months ended 31 October 2002 and the outlook anticipated for the year ending 31 December 2002. Nedcor Limited, the Company's separately JSE-listed banking subsidiary gave a detailed update on its own trading on 21 November 2002. The full text of Nedcor's statement is available on the Company's website, www.oldmutual.com. Old Mutual is in the second phase of its internationalisation. The third quarter of 2002 has seen the Company continue to focus on the key elements of bedding down its US and UK international acquisitions, and growing its franchise in South Africa. Poor equity markets around the world have made conditions difficult for those of our operations that are equity oriented. However, the diversity of our operations worldwide has ensured our trading has continued to demonstrate considerable resilience. In the US in particular, our equity-oriented businesses are balanced by the fixed interest focus of life insurance businesses. This, together with our leading position in South Africa has sustained earnings at a satisfactory level, although somewhat lower than in the first half. Moreover, our core life assurance businesses have not been affected by the problems, which have afflicted the insurance sector in Europe. We have made considerable progress in bringing strategic focus to the Group, with the sale of our UK broking arms, GNI and Old Mutual Securities, the sale of further financial affiliates in the US, the sale of NWQ (where we had the opportunity to establish a sales relationship with Nuveen) and the incorporation of Thompson, Siegal & Walmsley, Inc (TSW) into our strategic affiliate holdings. Whilst these sales were earnings dilutive, they have strengthened the Company's capital position and will allow us to concentrate on our core businesses. Earlier in the year we acquired BoE, the sixth largest bank in South Africa. This makes Nedcor the largest bank in South Africa by many measures, and the integration is a major focus for Richard Laubscher and his team. There are a number of one-off effects of this acquisition that will flow through into our 2002 accounts. It is expected to deliver R900 million per annum in rationalisation and cost synergies for the enlarged Nedcor group by 2005. Life new business sales to the end of October totalled £3.5 billion, or £507 million on an Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) basis. Strong new business sales at our US life operations have been the highlight, accounting for 58% of the total. South African life sales have so far continued at the levels of the first half, against the backdrop of a declining JSE. At a product level, margins remained similar in this period compared with the first half of the year. Total value of new business for the Group, for the year to 31 October is £92 million. Assets under management worldwide for retained businesses declined 16% for the year to date, primarily because of the decline in markets. Our US asset management businesses have continued to focus on building distribution capabilities to attract new funds, with net inflows of $3.7 billion for the 10 months to 31 October 2002 much helped by continuing good investment performance. Relative performance of funds under management at our asset management businesses has been satisfactory, having outperformed weak equity markets over the year to date. Funds managed by our US business have fallen by 10%, compared to a fall of 23% in the US S&P 500, and the UK businesses are 19% lower, compared with a 23% fall for the UK FTSE 100. On an asset-weighted basis, some 80% of our US institutional assets have exceeded their benchmark over a 3 and 5-year period. We derive strength from the diversity of our portfolio of activities, with recent good performance from fixed interest and value-style investment managers in our Group. The strengthening of the Rand since the beginning of 2002 has benefited the Group's embedded value when expressed in Sterling, which was approximately 100p per share as at 31 October 2002 but has caused significant translation losses at Nedcor, which are consolidated in our results. As in the first half of 2002, the fall in the average exchange rate of the Rand against Sterling between 2001 and 2002 will adversely affect operating profit for our core South African financial services businesses for 2002 when reported in Sterling. Outlook We expect the balance of the year broadly to follow recent trends. Our results will always be affected by currency and market levels, but the diversity of our business makes our earnings resilient in a tough environment. Our management team will continue to take strong action to contain expenses where necessary, and to develop products that suit the cautious requirements of the times. We expect to continue to be able to take advantage of the opportunities these conditions afford. ENQUIRIES: Old Mutual plc James Poole (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7569 0100 Nad Pillay (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 21 504 8026 Tel: +27 (0) 82 553 7980 College Hill (UK) Tel: +44 (0) 20 7457 2020 Gareth David Tony Friend College Hill (SA) Tel: +27 (0) 11 447 3030 Nicholas Williams Robyn Hunt Julian Roberts, Group Finance Director, will be hosting a conference call for analysts at 9.30 a.m. GMT (11.30 a.m. South African time) this morning. The call will include a brief introduction followed by an opportunity for questions. To obtain the number prior to 9.30 a.m, analysts can contact Old Mutual plc Investor Relations department on Tel: +44 (0) 20 7569 0166. 25 November 2002 Appendix 1 to Old Mutual plc update on current trading dated 25 November 2002 South Africa - Life Assurance and Asset Management In the Group's South African life assurance business, new premiums and operating earnings have been impacted by difficult equity markets and rising interest rates in the period since 30 June 2002. For the ten months ended 31 October 2002, operating earnings in Rand terms have advanced only slowly on the 2001 equivalents. New business sales and earnings for the remaining two months of the year may continue to be adversely impacted if poor investment market conditions persist. APE sales for the first 10 months reached R3,040 million. Margins at a product level and overall are in line with 2001. The total value of new business for the ten months to 31 October 2002 was R773 million, compared to R840 million for the year ended 31 December 2001 and R403 million for the first half of 2002. Individual Business new recurring premiums have continued to perform well, at levels somewhat higher than in the first half of 2002 and in line with the second half of 2001. The recently launched Greenlight flexible range of insurance protection products continues to attract significant inflows. Individual single premium sales are strongly correlated to investment markets and remained at levels similar to the second half of last year. Total Individual Business APE for the ten months to 31 October 2002 was R2,203 million compared to the 2001 full year APE of R2,467 million and the 2002 first half APE of R1,270 million. New business APE through bancassurance for the year to 31 October 2002 was some 9% up on the same period last year. Further progress has been made on distribution with increases in both the size and the productivity of the sales force and cost control continues to be a focus. Group Business single premium sales have been strong since the half-year, while new recurring premiums were below the levels achieved in the first half of the year. Total Group Business APE for the ten months was R689 million, which compares with an APE of R354 million for the first half of 2002 and R675 million for the full year 2001. Considerable progress is being made in improving the servicing capabilities of this business, with the first client now successfully transferred onto our new system. Total client funds managed in South Africa were R252 billion at 31 October 2002. This was marginally down on funds managed of R262 billion at 30 June 2002, primarily reflecting the lower local and global equity markets. South Africa - Banking The core operating performance of the Group's 53.2% owned South African banking group, Nedcor, has been satisfactory in challenging conditions and has produced sound growth compared to the same period in 2001.Growth in advances, excluding the recently acquired BoE, has been very satisfactory at 15%, and retail deposit growth has likewise been positive. The BoE integration is proceeding well and it is anticipated that annualised cost synergy savings and rationalisation benefits of some R900m before tax will be achieved in 2005. BoE was under stress when it was acquired; however strong returns of deposit flows and good progress have been achieved in most areas as it returns towards expected profit levels. Nedcor's management has conducted an initial review of the fair value of BoE's assets at acquisition, resulting in a write-down of some R700m, including prudent write-downs of its micro-loan book. In addition, one-off downward adjustments to bring BoE's accounting policies into line with those of the Group will amount to some R170m. After these adjustments, goodwill arising on the acquisition of BoE will be approximately R2.6 billion, giving a price to book ratio of approximately 1.6, which is consistent with findings of the due diligence exercise at acquisition. With the completion of the acquisition of BoE and the buyout of minority shareholders in Nedcor Investment Bank, Nedcor is launching an issue of non-redeemable, non-cumulative preference shares which will rank as tier 1 capital for capital adequacy purposes and increase the diversity of its capital mix and replenish its capital adequacy surplus. Nedcor has also undertaken a review of its policy towards bad and doubtful debts and provisioning levels. It is anticipated that additional provisions of R320 million will be charged against earnings this year, including R50 million for loans to the micro-lending market, which has experienced exceptional difficulties during 2002. Nedcor's investment in Dimension Data will also be reviewed at the year-end. At current market levels, this would lead to a further write-down of R275 million this year. The strengthening of the Rand in recent weeks is likely to result in significant translation losses on Nedcor's non-Rand based assets. At half-year, with the Rand/Sterling rate at 15.85, translation losses of R436 million were reported, affecting headline operating earnings. If Rand strength continues, Nedcor's headline earnings will be significantly lower than in 2001. South Africa - General Insurance Mutual & Federal, our 51%-owned general insurance subsidiary, has achieved growth in premium income for the 10 months to end of October 2002 of 14%. It expects to maintain an improvement on the 2001 results in the second half of this year despite higher claims experience in July and August. Maintaining the improvement in underwriting ratios reported in the first half will depend on an improvement in claims experience and the steps being taken by management to raise profitability in the final two months of the year. USA - Life Assurance The Group's US life operations are substantially the fixed interest annuity product business of Fidelity & Guaranty Life. Performance for the year to date has been highly satisfactory with sales continuing at a high rate, earnings starting to emerge from the good sales achieved earlier in the year and at the end of 2001, and credit experience being satisfactory. Sales for the four month period 1 July to 31 October 2002 of $1.5 billion represent 206% growth over the same period last year and are at a comparable level to the $2.2 billion achieved in the first half of 2002 despite our action to reduce crediting rates in order to control volumes. As a result we expect volumes in the last quarter to be considerably lower. The value of new business for the first ten months of 2002 was $62.5 million. Margins, at 15%, are ahead of 2001 rates but are slightly lower than the half-year reported results. At the end of October US life had total assets of $12.1 billion, primarily invested through Old Mutual affiliate Dwight Asset Management, compared with $5.6 billion when we purchased the company and $9.2 billion at 30 June. Under both UK and US statutory reporting methodologies, new sales make a small loss at issue and only marginal profits in the year of issue but require solvency capital immediately. As a result, we expect to have contributed some $250 million in capital during 2002 to support the huge growth. Since the interim results there have been no exceptional credit problems in the investment portfolio, and default rates in the bonds used to back the policies are within the expected range. USA - Asset Management The Group's US asset management business has undergone considerable transformation, including launching new distribution strategies in the retail mutual fund and wrap investment product markets, completing the sale of NWQ, bringing TSW into the strategic group on profit sharing terms and reducing central costs by around $25 million. Further disposals of non-core affiliates have been made in the second half of this year. At the beginning of the year the Group announced a key target to secure positive cash inflows from investors. This has been one of the most difficult periods the US fund management industry has seen in recent times, so it is satisfying to be able to report that overall the business has recorded net fund inflows of $3.7 billion for the year to date. The US asset management business achieved strong relative investment performance overall over the year to date, with particularly good performance from our fixed interest and value-style investment managers. Assets under management declined 10% excluding divestitures and net fund flows, compared to a 23% decline for the S&P 500 Index, a 32% decline for the NASDAQ Composite Index, a 16% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and a 9% gain for the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. At 31 October 2002, funds under management totalled $125 billion. The formation of Old Mutual Investment Partners was announced in October. Its purpose is to enhance distribution capabilities to programme sponsors in the managed account market. Old Mutual Investment Partners will perform sales, marketing and client-service functions for participating Old Mutual member firms. Synergy between the Group's US life and asset management businesses continues to be strong. Dwight's investment performance on behalf of US life has been good. Analytic Investors have recently been awarded a mandate to manage a specialist portfolio on behalf of the US life business, initially valued at approximately $1.2 billion. The five new funds sub-advised by Old Mutual firms, which were introduced to Pilgrim Baxter's PBHG Funds towards the end of last year, have continued to attract investor assets, with $1.6 billion managed through this platform at the end of October 2002. Equity markets have shown few signs of sustained recovery, with the main US equity indices hitting new lows for the year at the close of the third Quarter. This, coupled with the sale of NWQ with effect from 1 July, will lead to lower profits in the second half. UK Market conditions have also been very difficult in the UK in the second half of the year. The FTSE 100 Index declined by 13% between 30 June and 31 October 2002, and asset-based revenues for the Group's UK businesses have consequently been much reduced. Retail market activity levels have also remained low over this period. In the light of the declining market conditions and its impact on revenues, strong action has been taken in Gerrard, where sales trends have continued broadly in line with those of the first half. Despite the benefit of a reduced expense base from the management actions in 2001 and the first half of 2002, further cost reduction initiatives, including staff redundancies and branch restructuring during the second half, are expected to result in a charge of up to £5 million this year. OMAM (UK) continues to achieve positive fund flows despite the market conditions. The successful completion of the sale of GNI to Man Group plc underlines our focus on our core asset accumulation and management activities, releasing capital that can be recycled towards these activities within the Group. Including dividends paid, repayment of subordinated capital and the consideration for GNI equity, total proceeds of the sale were in excess of £125 million. The conditional sale of Old Mutual Securities to Secure Trust was announced on 11 November 2002 for a consideration equal to the business's net assets plus future payments based on levels of profitability achieved up to a maximum value of £12 million, to be paid in a mixture of cash and loan notes. With the restructuring of our UK business substantially completed, Edmond Warner, CEO of Old Mutual Financial Services (UK), has tendered his resignation to pursue other career options. He is expected to leave the Group at the end of March 2003. Balance Sheet The group continues to manage the capital position prudently and makes sure that capital is available to group subsidiaries where returns are beneficial. Group access to debt and credit markets means that we have been able to secure an attractive funding structure with gearing at year-end expected to be marginally down on the position at the end of 2001. The South African life assurance business remains well capitalised at 2.3 times the statutory capital adequacy requirement (SCAR) at 31 October 2002. The cover has decreased from 2.6 times at 30 June 2002, which is primarily due to the fall in the South African equity markets and has not experienced any of the capital issues affecting the UK and European life companies. A review has been carried out of the carrying value of the UK and USA asset management businesses purchased in 2000 and 2001. Despite the reduction in equity markets worldwide, the directors are satisfied that no impairment of these assets will be necessary at year-end. Forward looking statements This announcement contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the financial condition and results of operations of Old Mutual plc and Group companies, which by their nature involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may occur in the future. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements include, but are not limited to, global, national and regional economic conditions, levels of securities markets, interest rates, credit or other risks of lending and investment activities, and competitive and regulatory factors. Preliminary Results Old Mutual plc expects to announce its preliminary results for the year ending 31 December 2002 on 24 February 2003. It is expected that Nedcor Limited will announce its preliminary results on 12 February 2003. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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