Net Asset Value Update

RNS Number : 0173E

Mineral & Financial Invest. Limited

30 October 2015

 

MINERAL & FINANCIAL LIMITED

("Mineral & Financial", "MAFL", or the "Company")

NET ASSET VALUE UPDATE

· NAV of 7.79p

· Significant new investment in TH Crestgate and Iberian base metals assets

· Continuing to seek further strategic acquisitions

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

We believe that the stock markets are currently concerned that China's slowed rate of economic growth will have a significant negative impact on global economic activity. There are significant risks to metals and minerals markets when one country, China, represents on average 50% of global demand. However, the table below should provide some perspective to the impact of the chilling of the Chinese economy. The summarized table below shows Chinese GDP in USD from 1990 to 2015 and the incremental GDP created by its growth. In 2015, if China grows by 6.5%, it will still create about the same economic demand increase as it did in total for the six years starting in 1998 and ending in 2003. This remains a very large increase in demand which, when coupled with, in our belief, what is an inadequate amount of mineral exploration we believe the cycle will turn for metals & minerals.

Chinese Economic Activity
Year	GDP (current $bn)	Annual % Change	Annual GDP Increase (Current $Bn)
1990	$356,937,329,023
1991	$379,468,645,985	6.3%	$22,531,316,962
2000	$1,198,474,937,919	10.6%	$115,196,346,180
2010	$5,930,502,270,313	18.8%	$940,268,751,561
2015 E	$10,578,954,633,787	6.5%	$645,663,897,837*

Source: World Bank, concensus estimates

During the quarter to end September 2015 Mineral & Financial Investments made its first significant investment in what we hope to be the first stage in the on-going transformation of the Company.

On 27 August 2015 we announced the acquisition of a 49% stake in Swiss-based TH Crestgate, which in turn acquired of a portfolio of zinc and base metals assets from Portex Minerals Inc, a Canadian company that has decided to change its business model and enter into the metals recycling business.  

As noted in our press release at the time of the investment, these new assets benefit from a total combined indicated resource of 7.6M tonnes of ore grading 11.96% zinc equivalent and an inferred resource of 6.2M tonnes grading 10.26% zinc equivalent.

To date there has been around US$20 million of spending on these projects and we believe there is considerable strength in depth in terms of the amount of accumulated data available to TH Crestgate and in terms of the teams operating on the ground at the Lagoa Salgada and Toral assets in Portugal and Spain respectively.

TH Crestgate's task will now be to put these assets on a firm financial footing and to assess what the next steps will be in terms of activity on the ground and technical studies.   Where appropriate Mineral & Financial will be providing advisory services to TH Crestgate in its execution of these tasks, through Jacques Vaillaancourt who has been appointed a Non-Executive director of TH Cressgate.

The Company is mindful that the market for exploration assets is weak at the moment, but is of the view that a time of such weakness is precisely when asset prices offer the best value. The potential value-add at Lagoa Salgada and Toral could be significant, with the corresponding upside for TH Crestgate feeding through into Mineral & Financial.

We continue to seek further such deals and will update the market accordingly.

Jacques Vaillancourt

CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER'S STATEMENT

It is disappointing to be reporting a drop in our Net Asset Value to 7.79p. The commodity markets continue to be tough, and although we have prudently kept much of our portfolio weighted to cash, nevertheless we do have some exposure to the ongoing turbulence, in particular to Glencore and to zinc.

However, it is pleasing to note that post the period end there has been a bounce in Glencore's shares, in part because of the actions it has taken in the zinc market, and in part because of the actions it has taken in regard to copper production.

As part of a wider rebalancing exercise, Glencore is taking a lead in curtailing the supply of metals into the market, and this may very well be the precursor to a period of greater stability.

In any event analysts across the board appear to be united in agreeing that Glencore's production cutbacks will have a positive effect on commodities prices although whether it will be enough to spark a real rally remains open to question.

Zinc, as we have noted in previous commentary, remains well positioned for a sustained period of strength, notwithstanding the recent weakening in sentiment which has mainly been driven by overblown concerns about the slowdown in China.

The Chinese economy remains vigorous and powerful, and if it is no longer sustaining the double digit growth of a decade ago, then that is only to be expected of a maturing economy.

Recent PMI numbers show that there's still plenty of vibrancy in Chinese economic activity, which is being helped along by recent exercises in monetary easing, and analysts at some major broking houses and forecasters, including Morgan Stanley and Capital Economics, are now beginning to turn the tide of negative sentiment against commodities, partly on a reappraisal of China's economic position.

To be sure, recent Chinese trade data hasn't been overly encouraging, but we believe the broader picture is now beginning to look brighter.

In zinc, as a result of cuts to supply and continued demand, the current surplus should go into a 365,000 tonne deficit next year, according to analysis by SP Angel.

This bodes well for a recovery in the value of our zinc position and, perhaps more significant in the longer term, for the potential for the Company to realise significant value from its 49% holding in TH Crestgate, which in turn holds the Toral zinc asset in Spain and the Lagoa Salgada zinc asset in Portugal.

With other major zinc mines nearing the end of their production cycle, we believe that the longer term outlook for zinc remains favourable.

Elsewhere, the outlook for the gold price remains mixed as the US dollar continues in relative strength, but global political uncertainty continues to dominate the news agenda.

A further deterioration of the situation in the Middle East could well precipitate another run on gold, although on a more fundamental and short-term basis we will be looking at the potential of strikes in South Africa and at central government buying.

Alastair Ford

For more information:

Katy Mitchell, WH Ireland                                [phone]

Laurence Read, Director                                   [phone]

 

END

 

 

NAVURUARVBAROAA