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Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 23 June 2006 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31 May 2006 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Net Asset Value GBP 132.70 Share Price GBP 130.50 Premium (Discount) (1.6%) Market Capitalisation GBP 26.1mn Benchmark (21/2% Con Ann Avg Yield +4.4%) +0.4 Source: Bloomberg; NAV-Lindsell Train. Share Price quoted is closing mid price. See Benchmark definition. Performance History (based in 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 YTD 2006 GBP) Net Asset Value TR% +3.2 -9.6 +3.1 +23.7 +16.5 -1.2 Share Price TR% +18.5 -19.8 -8.7 +20.6 +27.5 +2.9 Source: LTL and S&P Micropal. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested. 2005 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Net Asset Value TR% +1.4 +0.3 +1.7 +0.2 +3.4 +2.9 +0.0 +0.2 +1.0 -1.5 +2.3* +2.9 Share Price TR% +8.6 +3.5 -3.4 +1.8 +2.6 +9.3 +0.4 -2.3 +2.4 -3.9 +1.2 +4.0 Source: LTL and S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd. 2006 Performance Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Net Asset Value TR% +0.9 +1.9 +1.2 -1.8 -2.0 Share Price TR% -3.0 +7.5 +1.5 +3.4 -1.5 Source: LTL and S&P Micropal unless otherwise indicated. Performance years listed Jan - Dec. Launch date 22 Jan 2001. TR=Total Return (with dividends reinvested) *Source: Lindsell Train Ltd. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The price of units and the income from them may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back what they invested. Industry Breakdown % of NAV Bonds 20.1 Preference Shares 14.1 Equity - Media 12.0 Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 6.7 Equity - Leisure & Ent. 11.5 Equity - Food & Beverage 27.7 Equity - Consumer Goods 1.6 Investment Fund 20.5 Cash & Equivalent (14.2) Total 100.0 Source: Lindsell Train Top 10 Holdings % of NAV HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 10.9 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 10.9 Barr AG 10.0 Diageo 7.7 Cadbury Schweppes 7.5 US Gov Treasury 6.25% 7.4 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.3 Lindsell Train Ltd 6.7 Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries 5.6 Nintendo 5.4 Source: Lindsell Train Fund Exposure Bonds Prefs Equity Funds Cash % of NAV UK % 12.7 14.1 48.6 4.4 (14.3) 65.5 USA % 7.4 - 1.3 - 5.4 14.1 Europe (ex UK) % - - 4.2 - (2.6) 1.6 Japan % - - 5.4 5.2 (2.7) 7.9 Global % - - - 10.9 - 10.9 Total 20.1 14.1 59.5 20.5 (14.2) 100.0 Source: Lindsell Train Fund Manager's Comments The story goes that sometime in the early years of the Twentieth Century there was a lull on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, a lull that extended from hours into days - and the boys were getting bored and restless. Come an afternoon, for want of any better entertainment, one of the traders pulled out an elderly sardine tin and announced his willingness to sell this unique item for no more than a nickel. In a moment two jobbers from the Railroads pitch had bid and counter-bid for the tin, pushing the price up to a dime. Not to be outdone, the swells who trade Texas oil stocks jump in, doubling the price of the sardines, then doubling it again. The tin passes from professional hand to professional hand, with the ticket sometimes a cent or two higher, sometimes up a quarter. At last the hubbub attracts the attention of the baby of the floor, a wet behind the ears college kid. He spots the unusual label and can't miss the excitement in the open outcry yelling of the traders. The kid, determined to show he can play with the big boys and genuinely intrigued by the apparent rarity of the item, firmly calls out 'Ten bucks' and is delighted when the bidding comes to an abrupt end. Hefting out his pocket-knife, he punctures the tin, only to be met with the unmistakeable stink of rotting fish. Bewildered and heavily out of pocket, the new boy turns to one of his elders and betters, who had taken a half Dollar turn out of the tin an hour previously. 'I don't get it' says the kid, 'these sardines are long gone.' 'Son', says the old jobber, 'those weren't eating sardines, thems were trading sardines.' We're fond of this apocryphal story, which illustrates one aspect of the workings of capital markets. We all know about the ramped 'concept' stock, the speculative issue that almost unaccountably captures the attention of traders and the investing public. This is the kind of stock whose appeal begins and ends with the prospect that it might go up a lot in a short period of time. Sometimes an entire subsector of the market is implicated, or even created, in the excitement. If you play the game and, we must admit, we tend not to play this type of game, then one important thing is to not be the patsy who pays top Dollar. The other consideration is knowing, if and when the music stops, whether you hold trading or eating sardines. There were many months after March 2000 and many rallies, when it was possible to sell out of various Internet 'trading' sardines, not at the top, assuredly, but before the things reverted to penny stock status. Equally, there were some 'eating' sardines too. Sage was always more wholesome than QXL Ricardo and while its decline from £8.00 to £1.05 was disagreeable, to say the least, there was the comfort of actual revenues and dividends, unlike many others. The tale is also salutary as a reminder of how all capital market activity is driven by speculation, to a greater or lesser extent. There is a raw gambling instinct at work, not so deep beneath most investment decisions and necessarily so, given our always imperfect knowledge of the future. For instance, we were intrigued to read John Ralfe's recent comments about the University Superannuation Scheme's current asset allocation for its £22.0 billion fund. Ralfe was the architect of the Boots' pension plan's famous switch into fixed interest assets and has argued publicly that the USS is imprudently exposed to equities. The scheme has 80.0% in stocks, compared to the industry average c65.0% and a deficit of c£3.5 billion. From Ralfe's perspective that makes its pensioners dangerously exposed to any further declines in the equity market. The scheme's officers argue the opposite - that the long tail of its liabilities means that above average equity risk and the excess returns to be expected for taking that risk are appropriate and desirable. Both positions are plausible, both based on sophisticated analysis of past returns, volatility and liability benchmarking. Either position, though, could turn out horribly wrong. In the end, the USS' extra £3.3 billion of equity exposure, compared to industry average, is an animal-spirited punt - the stakes are high and the outcome uncertain. Of course, the most topical and urgent question that arises from our fishy tale, is whether a similar rise and fall may be unfolding in the commodity markets and associated more or less speculative equity instruments. We are not experts on commodity cycles, so will not hazard a definitive view as to whether a bubble is inflating or, as it is possible to argue, has already burst. It has to be said, though, that the behaviour of the copper price in 2006 would not disgrace the final stages of a speculative blow-out. The metal has quadrupled since 2001, but more to the point, with a perfect NASDAQ 1999-2000-style exponential curve, the last doubling in price, from 193 on the CRB future to 392, was achieved in little over four months, from Jan 1st 2006, to May 11th. At this point, you may remember, it was reported that the melted down value of a Sterling two penny piece would now be 3p - a symbolic but probably spurious indicator of excess. A more relevant sign of the possible overvaluation of the metal can be seen though, in BHP's acknowledgement that the run-up in copper has lead to accelerating substitution in plumbing products - from copper to plastics - and that these represent c10-12.0% of global usage. Consumers may never smelt their loose change, but they will respond rationally to price hikes, in ways that can ultimately undermine the economics of the commodity producer. The subsequent correction in the CRB copper future led to a 12.0% drop, since narrowed to less than 5.0% by end May. You don't need to be a chartist to know that the next substantive move, down, or up to new highs, will be significant for sentiment and the pricing of a whole slew of dependent equities. NASDAQ suffered plenty of corrections during its long bull market, but when the real break finally came, it fell 72.0% from its peak and is still less than half its 2000 levels. Meanwhile, while we have nothing of value to assert individually about companies such as Kazakhyms, Vedanta or Xstrata, just to cite some of the heaviest UK capitalisations in the territory, it is hard to believe that there aren't some decomposing sardines amongst them. Even the eating sardines look challengingly priced. Both BHP and RTZ trade for getting on 4.0x 2005's revenues. Admittedly those revenues are currently super profitable and likely to grow smartly for the foreseeable future, but at some stage the likelihood is that one will be able to access the equity of these companies, at some low ebb in commodity prices and during a period of heavy capital expenditure, on more like 1.0x EV/Revenues. We continue to believe in the thematic underpinning of the commodity price boom. That underpinning is not, we think, that coal or copper is in fundamentally short supply - these are not rare commodities. The boom is actually an expression of the unexpected and sustained growth in developing economies. We choose to participate in this theme via the equity of consumer branded goods businesses, which we expect to benefit from a prolonged period of rising disposable incomes in those parts. This is because, over the piece, we expect such brand-owning companies to earn higher cash returns on capital committed to developing economies, than more cyclical, capital-intensive commodity extractors. We also believe that the equity of our favoured companies is undervalued, as investor attention has fixated on mineral assets. For instance, we note and applaud Cadbury Schweppes recent acquisition of Dan Products, a South African chewing gum business. Cadbury paid c3.75x Dan's annual revenues for the company. If we apply a similar EV/ Revenue multiple to the 30.0% or more of Cadbury's group sales that derive from the developing economies, then we find that the remainder of the company is valued on less than 1.3x. This seems exceptionally modest to us and similar analysis can be performed on other holdings in Diageo, Clarins and Heineken. Your NAV declined in May, but at a more modest rate than that of global equity markets. This is consistent with past performance of the Company, which has tended to outperform falling stock markets and underperform rising. Longer term performance from inception still comfortably exceeds the return on global equities. Fund Manager Launch Date Denomination Nick Train 22 Jan 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st Mar Ex Date: June The annual average yield on the 21/2% Payment: August Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% Lindsell Train Investment Trust Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual increase Springfield Lodge, Colchester Road Donald Adamson in the share price, plus dividend, Chelmsford above the gross annual yield of the 2 ESSEX CM2 5PW Dominic Caldecott 1/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. ISIN Secretary Listing GB0031977944 Phoenix Administration Services Limited London Stock Exchange Bloomberg LTI LN Disclaimer This document is intended for use by persons who are authorised by the UK Financial Services Authority ('FSA') and those who are permitted to receive such information in the UK. The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any investments. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in this investment. The value of any investment in securities or funds and the income generated from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance cannot be used as a guide or guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the original amount you have invested. Changes in foreign exchange rates may cause the value of your investment to go up or down. Some funds with higher gearing may be subject to higher volatility and the investment value may change substantially. The net asset value (NAV) performance of an investment trust is not the same as its market share price performance. Issued by Lindsell Train Limited Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority 21 Jun 2006 LTL 000-037-1b Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 enquiry@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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