Monthly Briefing July 2003

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 15 August 2003 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st July 2003 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Share Price GBP 90.50 Net Asset Value GBP 96.15 Premium (Discount) (5.9%) Market Capitalisation GBP 18.1mn Source: Bloomberg; NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Jul Jun May YTD Since Launch NAV +2.0% -0.9% +3.4% +3.0% -3.8% Share Price -1.1% -4.2% +0.0% -4.7% -9.5% Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV Industry Breakdown % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 18.8 Bonds 33.8 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 12.5 Preference Shares 13.6 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 10.5 Equity - Media 9.3 HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 8.3 Equity - Banks & Investment Co. 4.2 Barr AG 7.7 Equity - Leisure & Entertainment 8.7 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.4 Equity - Food & Beverage 22.2 Glenmorangie plc A&B 6.7 Investment Fund 22.9 Cadbury Schweppes 5.8 Cash & Equivalent (14.7) UK Treasury 2.5% 5.5 Total 100.0 Halifax Group plc 5.4 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Currency Exposure % NAV Bonds 33.8 USD 50.5 UK 12.9 JPY 0.5 US 20.9 EUR 0.3 Preference 13.6 GBP 48.7 Shares 44.4 Total 100.0 Equities UK 33.4 US 4.7 Japan 4.0 Europe 2.2 23.0 Funds LT Japan 12.5 LT Global Media 10.5 (14.7) Cash & Equivalent Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments Mike has returned recently from a week in Japan and is preparing a report that restates and refines his thinking about that intractable economy. His analysis is sufficiently stimulating, relevant for the Trust and suggestive of a major money making opportunity that I propose to paraphrase it here, while highlighting some of the collateral implications for other capital markets that arise from it. Deflation combined with sluggish growth continues to characterize the Japanese economy, as evidenced, anecdotally, by particularly weak retail sales in July, as higher social security taxes bite. Little change, then, from the 'lost years', in equity market terms, of the last decade. Our view is that these conditions, so inimical to corporate profitability, will persist until they stop. Of course, that is a nugatory assertion, but from a Japanese equity investor's perspective, grasping it has been all that has mattered - the bull market has not and will not begin until the end of deflation, although it is possible the bear market may end before then. Our equity strategy for Japan, accordingly, has been to exploit our Fund's hedging powers, which has enabled us to profit from conditions where, as a generalization, equity value is degrading. However, we are clear that the deflation will eventually exhaust itself, probably amidst circumstances of significant stress for the Japanese economy and financial system. These circumstances are, we expect, likely to offer an exceptionally attractive entry point into Japanese equities, partly because capitalisations and valuations could be materially lower than even today, but more importantly, because the end of deflation means the beginning of a period of rising inflation expectations, which could precipitate a prolonged bull market, particularly if it was associated with cultural change in the corporate sector. At around this point, in the indeterminate future, then, our strategy in Japan will shift and our Fund will begin to look like a more conventional, 'long-only' vehicle, possibly even geared. So, we peer into the cherry blossom, watching for signs of change. And suddenly there are such signs and important ones. First, the bond market has begun to fall. Yields on the 10-year Japanese bond troughed at 0.4% earlier this year, but have retraced, savagely, to 1.0%, where they have settled. We believe this move marks the beginning of a major bear market in Japanese government bonds and that yields may never again get so low, just as the sub 2.0% nadir for US Treasury yields in the early 1940's has never and may never be seen again. Falling bond prices are a clear indication of an upturn in inflation expectations and we believe that, for Japan, investors are correct to look through the current deflationary pressures and divine that somewhere out there, in some as yet unpredictable way, inflation will bottom, perhaps as a result of a decline in the Yen. By contrast, we see the current sell-off in the US bond market as a correction in its bull market, rather than a serious earnest of imminently rising US inflation and, as a result, have this month switched our remaining investment in the US TIP into conventional long bonds, in the process locking into a much higher running yield for our investors and much more price leverage to falling long rates. Further declines in the Japanese bond market, which we absolutely do expect, will have the effect of raising debt service charges for many over-leveraged Japanese corporations, whose continued existence of late has been dependent on ultra-low interest rates. Rising rates could precipitate a crisis for many, which might result in bankruptcy or forced sale. Whatever, a significant reduction in supply of goods and services in the Japanese economy seems possible. This would materially improve the earnings prospects for those businesses that remain, once demand has stabilized. The opportunity may be analogous to the improved prospects for the US and UK corporate sectors after the capacity reductions of the early 1980's. The second sign of change is related to the first and may come as an even greater surprise to casual observers of Japan. This is the marked deterioration in the household savings rate. This ran at 22.0% of income in 1975 and 10.0% in the 1990's, underscoring the Japanese reputation for thrift. Today the ratio stands at 2.0%, as lower salaries, rising unemployment and non-existent deposit rates have required or encouraged individuals to draw down on savings to maintain living standards. Thus the effects of prolonged recession/deflation are grinding toward denouement. As the domestic savings pool shrinks, so the ability of the authorities to fund a compounding of government debt, from 68.0% of GDP in 1990 to 147.0% in 2002, at absurdly low interest rates becomes compromised. The coming debacle in the bond market could be all the greater. It is instructive to note that, by contrast, the US savings ratio has begun to climb this year and is already higher than Japan's, on current readings, at 3.9%. An upturn in US savings is supportive of our expectation of a dull outlook for US consumer spending and may yet dismay the numerous bears of the US bond market and, indeed, the Dollar. In conclusion, although readers should aim off for the obvious self-interest in the following comments, we expect the Lindsell Train Japan Fund to be a very interesting investment over the next 12 months. It will be interesting to the extent it acts as a window on seismic changes in Japan. It will be more interesting, from the perspective of an investor in the Lindsell Train Investment Trust, to watch as its current strategy pays off through the final stages of the Japanese deflation and makes serious money. Finally, all our investors should be alert to changes in the structure of the Fund. As it moves to participate in a young bull market (although not yet!), this will signal a period of vigorous gains, the kind that come along only once or twice in a generation. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield Payment: August on the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual Trust Donald Adamson increase in the share price, plus 77A High Street Michael Lindsell dividend, Brentwood above the gross annual yield of ESSEX DM14 4RR the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3197794 LTI LN Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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