Monthly Briefing January 2003

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 12 February 2003 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st January 2003 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Net Asset Value GBP 89.75 Share Price GBP 95.50 Discount (Premium) 6.5% Market Capitalisation GBP 19.1mn Source: Bloomberg; NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Jan Dec Nov YTD Since Launch NAV -3.8% -1.2% +0.4% -10.9% -10.3% Share Price +0.5% +1.6% +0.5% -19.1% -4.5% Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV Industry Breakdown % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 15.8 Bonds 39.1 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 13.1 Preference Shares 13.3 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.8 Media 7.7 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 9.6 Banks & Investment Co. 6.5 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.8 Leisure & Entertainment 6.9 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 7.7 Food & Beverage 16.3 UK Treasury 2.5% 6.1 Investment Fund 24.9 Glenmorangie plc A&B 5.9 Cash & Equivalent (14.7) HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 5.6 Total 100.0 Barr AG 5.5 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Currency Exposure % NAV Bonds 39.1 USD 55.1 UK 13.8 JPY (0.9) US 25.3 EUR 1.9 Preference 13.3 GBP 44.0 Shares 37.4 Total 100.0 Equities UK 28.1 US 4.5 Japan 2.9 Europe 1.9 24.9 Funds LT Japan 13.1 LT Global Media 11.8 (14.7) Cash & Equivalent Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments January saw a fall in the Trust's NAV, down 3.8%. Almost every asset in the Company declined in value, with the exception of the irredeemable gilts. Even the US bonds fell modestly, despite the developing weakness in equity markets as the month progressed. Our losses were exacerbated by the inexorable slide in the value of the Dollar against Sterling, which moved another 2.4% against us in the month. More disappointing, though, were the falls in a number of the equity positions that we deem 'defensive' and that had, indeed, fulfilled this function for the Company for at least part of the last two years. Cadbury, Nintendo and Wolters Kluwer each fell over 10.0%, for a variety of reasons, more or less pertinent. Bear markets are persistent and neither cheap valuation, as we think demonstrable for all three of the above, nor prodigious balance sheet strength, as exampled by Nintendo, may be enough to save you - they get you in the end. We wonder, like so many participants, where the bottom is. Last month one of our favourite Japanese strategists offered a suggestion. His reasonable view is that the Nikkei will find support when private individuals find values irresistible and become the new marginal buyers. In his view this will happen when that market yields 5.0%. Moreover, he thought that such a level might be required on more than just the Japanese market. In particular, he believes that a 5.0% yield will be supportive only once it is clear that dividends are sustainable, or are supported by 'normal' levels of cover. For instance, the Japanese market still only yields 1.1%. However, Japanese companies are almost certainly under-distributing and could perhaps double distribution out of cash earnings and still be regarded as prudent, by Western standards. Nonetheless, even on a doubled distribution the Nikkei would have to halve before the 5.0% support was in sight. This indeed is his gloomy conclusion. We were keen to gaze into the abyss, as it were, and establish where other markets would have to fall, if the 5.0% hurdle, on normalized cover, is to be attained. The S&P is forecast to earn $50 in 2003, for a P/E of 17.0x prospective. The average level of dividend cover for US stocks between 1871 and 2001 is 1.47x, or a payout ratio of 68.0%. Taking this average, which has tended sharply downwards in recent decades as the tax code has discouraged dividend payment, the S&P 'ought' to distribute $34. Putting $34 of dividend on a 5.0% yield gives 680 for the index, compared with 840 today, where it now yields 4.0% on this notional basis, or 1.6% in actuality. Meanwhile in the UK, the All-Share records historic earnings of 97, for a P/E of 18.0x and, assuming a similar payout to the US, gives distributable earnings of 66. A 5.0% yield on such dividends gives an index level of 1,320, against 1770 today. We have no desire for such an outcome, but recognize that further falls are not out of the question. As Philip Coggan noted in the Financial Times recently, British economic conditions in 1953, of 1.0% inflation and little growth, resulted in gilts yielding 3.9% and UK equities 5.4%. However, Coggan also noted the statistical propensity the UK market has shown to make money from a 4.0% dividend yield, its long run average. On 29th January, the recent low for the All-Share, such an income was on offer. In 63.0% of years that commence with a 4.0% yield, out of the last 102, the UK stock market has subsequently risen. Not a wildly compelling statistic perhaps, but a gambling man might prick his ears. It is also notable, that at this yield, UK equities offer a higher net income to a high rate tax-payer than a long gilt, 3.0% versus 2.7%. The Yield Gap has reopened, after 44 years. This analysis means little more to us yet than a conviction we should not own any more fixed interest than we do today and that we should be ready to add individual new holdings, if special value is presented. However, if 5.0% is available on the All-Share as a whole, we can imagine making a more radical shift in asset allocation. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual Trust Donald Adamson increase in the share price, plus 77A High Street Michael Lindsell dividend, Brentwood above the gross annual yield of ESSEX DM14 4RR the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3001710 LTI LN Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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