Monthly Briefing 31-03-03

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 16 April 2003 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC As at 31st March 2003 Fund Objective To maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value and with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of Sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Net Asset Value GBP 90.87 Share Price GBP 95.50 Premium (Discount) 5.1% Market Capitalisation GBP 19.1mn Source: Bloomberg; NAV - LTL Performance (based in GBP) Mar Feb Jan YTD Since Launch NAV -0.6% +1.9% -3.8% -2.6% -9.1% Share Price +0.0% +0.0% +0.5% +0.5% -4.5% Source: Bloomberg. Based in GBP. Top 10 Holdings % NAV Industry Breakdown % NAV US Gov Treasury 6.25% 16.6 Bonds 37.4 Lindsell Train Japan (Dist) 13.4 Preference Shares 13.0 Lindsell Train Global Media (Dist) 11.2 Media 6.7 HBOS 6.125% Non Cum 7.6 Banks & Investment Co. 7.0 US Gov Treasury IL 3.875% 7.5 Leisure & Entertainment 7.1 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock 7.4 Food & Beverage 18.3 Barr AG 6.5 Investment Fund 24.6 UK Treasury 2.5% 5.9 Cash & Equivalent (14.1) Glenmorangie plc A&B 5.6 Total 100.0 HBOS 9.25% Non Cum 5.4 Geographical Breakdown % NAV Currency Exposure % NAV Bonds 37.4 USD 54.9 UK 13.3 JPY (0.8) US 24.1 EUR (0.2) Preference 13.0 GBP 46.1 Shares 39.1 Total 100.0 Equities UK 30.0 US 4.2 Japan 3.1 Europe 1.8 24.6 Funds LT Japan 13.4 LT Global Media 11.2 (14.1) Cash & Equivalent Total 100.0 Fund Manager's Comments One marked feature of a year that many of us feel has already been too eventful is the ending of the great bear market in technology shares. Perhaps this is too dogmatic a proposition given the somewhat scanty evidence, but it is incontrovertible that NASDAQ has ceased underperforming mainstream benchmarks, indeed has posted a modest positive gain year to date. Moreover, several of the surviving leaders of the Great Excess have begun to behave in a fashion reminiscent of the last century. Internet winners Amazon, ebay and Yahoo have risen 36.0%, 26.0% and 50.0% respectively since the start of the year. Cisco, Intel, EMC, Oracle and, in Europe, SAP have all gained in 2003, as has the UK's best proxy for such things, Vodafone, which is up nearly 6.0%. We can imagine readers responding variously to these moves - most common, perhaps, a shrug. A dead cat bounce, no more. Others might amuse themselves with the thought that markets will do whatever it takes to confound the majority of participants. Having spent two years extricating themselves from ill-considered technology investments, institutions must be galled to once more find themselves short of the stocks making the running. Could the flight into 'defensives' be an error? We well remember how dull not only the share price performances of consumer staples were during 1998-2000, but also how dull business performance was too, as the lack of pricing power highlighted the lack of unit volume growth. Our own reaction is mixed. Partly it is one of acute interest, but interest tinged with frustration. The interest lies in our conviction that for the foreseeable future the most attractive investment returns will be earned on assets that offer either an absolutely secure income yield, or access to the cast-iron certainty of long term growth. Both have proven to be rather more rare commodities than investors expected. For yield, we still believe that Anglo-Saxon government bonds offer the best risk-adjusted potential return for a Sterling investor, though we admit we don't know as much about emerging market sovereign debt, nor junk bonds, the latter skillfully exploited by Warren Buffett in recent months, as we might. As to growth, we can't come up with many better candidates for multi-year profitable growth than some of the names noted above, that have begun to exhibit both relative and absolute performance. In particular, we are sure that software, as broadly defined, software that enhances business efficiency, or the effectiveness of business professionals or software that entertains, will generate the kind of unanticipated cash-generative growth that is necessary to make serious money from stocks. Already the 10.0% earnings growth delivered by US technology companies in the first quarter exceeded any other sector, with the exception of energy. The question is which software companies and how to value them. Our frustration is founded on our failure to participate profitably in this technology/software rally - and not through want of trying. A number of our equity selections were made, prematurely no doubt, because we believed they provided us with access to software-driven growth, but in franchises we hoped we understood and at valuations that made sense to us. These selections make somewhat sorry reading within our valuation. We own Dow Jones in part because of its Internet properties, which we hope could become an unexpected source of growth and we expect the Wall Street Journal to benefit from the next wave of technology advertising and capital raising. Neither has materialized as yet and we are left with a dull stock, paying a yield of 2.75% from a debt-free balance sheet, waiting on a turn. Nintendo, we thought would give us exposure to a rapidly growing industry, gaming, driven by software and exhibiting classic Microsoft-type cash generation and returns. The irony is that this bullish outlook for Nintendo has, in part, been undermined by Microsoft itself, as it discounts not only its XBOX hardware, but effectively gives away valuable software. Nintendo remains an exceptionally strong company, with a pristine balance sheet, its hand-held monopoly and array of Disney-like character franchises, but it seems unlikely to us that the stock price is going to appreciate as a result of the current hardware cycle (though there are plenty of other potential drivers for the shares). Reuters and Instinet we see as purveyors of refined, as opposed to raw, information and smart tools to an important global industry. Stupidly, we failed to recognize the magnitude of the retrenchment required by this industry and, as with Nintendo, the diseconomies of scale that arise when competitors eat into an installed base. Finally, Wolters Kluwer we own because we believe that the transition from delivering business information by paper to Web-based products is value creating. The utility of the information increases for the consumer, while the cost of distribution falls. However, Wolters has not been able to effect this transformation without a profit hiatus, as its European clients have been slow to adopt electronic delivery. Our conclusions are that we do not know whether the October 2002 low on NASDAQ is an important bottom. Our experience demonstrates that it is still unnervingly easy to get individual technology companies wrong. However, market action in 2003 increases our confidence that the next bull market, whenever it becomes apparent, will be led by companies generating growth and cash from technology. This is a challenge for investors that will not go away. Fund Manager Launch Date Denominated Currency Nick Train 22 January 2001 GBP Year End Dividend Benchmark 31st March Ex-date: June The annual average yield on Payment: August the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. The Board Management Fees Registered Address Rhoddy Swire Standard Fee: 0.65% p.a. Lindsell Train Investment Michael Mackenzie Performance Fee: 10% of annual Trust Donald Adamson increase in the share price, plus 77A High Street Michael Lindsell dividend, Brentwood above the gross annual yield of ESSEX DM14 4RR the 21/2% Consolidated Loan Stock. Sedol No Bloomberg 3197794 LTI LN Disclaimer The contents in this document is solely for information purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or subscribe any securities or funds in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is not authorised. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice and cannot be relied upon in making any investment decision. Applications to invest in some of the funds must only be made on the basis of offer documents which may only be available for private circulation. The information contained in this document is published in good faith and neither Lindsell Train Limited nor any other person so connected assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information as provided. No representation is made or assurance given that any statements made, views, projections or forecasts are correct or that objectives will be achieved. Lindsell Train and/or persons connected with it may have an interest in the Fund. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. You may not get back the amount you invested. Foreign exchange rates may cause the value of investments to go up or down. Investments may be subject to higher volatility in certain funds and the investment value may fall suddenly and substantially. Lindsell Train Limited 35 Thurloe Street, London SW7 2LQ Tel. +44 20 7225 6400 Fax. +44 20 7225 6499 info@lindselltrain.com www.lindselltrain.com Lindsell Train Limited is regulated by the FSA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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