Final Results

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC 28 May 2004 Objective of the Company The objective of the Company is to maximise long-term total returns subject to the avoidance of loss of absolute value with a minimum objective to maintain the real purchasing power of sterling capital, as measured by the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock. Highlights for the year Performance comparisons 1 April 2003 - 31 March 2004 Middle market share price per Ordinary Share -7.9% Net Asset Value per Ordinary Share U +13.2% Benchmark* +4.9% MSCI World Index (sterling) +21.7% UK RPI Inflation +2.6% * The index of the annual average yield on the 2.5% Consolidated Loan Stock between the relevant dates U Adjusted to include the payment of the dividend Chairman's Statement The share price* of your Company fell in value by 6.5% over the year to 31 March 2004. This was despite a rise in the net asset value per share ('NAV')* of 13.2% and a rise in the benchmark of 4.9%. Although the NAV performed well against the benchmark, it did not when compared to the 21.7% rise in world equity markets (as measured by the MSCI World Index in sterling). The directors judge this to be the main reason why the share price failed to reflect some recovery in the NAV and ended the financial year trading at a discount of 13.2%. Since the Company's inception in January 2001 the share price* fell by 10.7% compared to a rise in the NAV* of 2.8%, a fall in world equity markets of 31.7% and a rise in the benchmark (excluding the adjustments for the payment of performance fees) of 16%. In conclusion, the Company has adequately preserved absolute value for shareholders but, as yet, has failed to build any additional value to protect the value of your investment from ongoing inflation. The primary, continued drag on performance was the fall in the value of the US dollar versus sterling. The Company has maintained an approximate 50% exposure to the US dollar through its investments in US Treasury bonds, the Lindsell Train long/short funds and equity investments in Dow Jones and Instinet. The Manager not only expects the underlying assets to ultimately generate returns that would dwarf any change in currency, but also they continue to believe that the US dollar should appreciate materially versus sterling. Although bond prices were markedly higher and lower at times during the year, the Company's investments in long-term fixed interest simply earned it their running yields which vary from 4.8% on the UK government bonds to 6.8% on the Halifax and HBOS preference shares. The most gratifying aspect of performance was the recovery in the price of some of the Company's media investments and continued steady performance from the drinks companies. Reuters and Instinet recovered 281% and 100%, whilst Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, AG Barr and Glenmorangie A & B advanced 45%, 34%, 30% and 40% respectively. The Lindsell Train funds contributed to performance in aggregate as the Lindsell Train Global Media Fund reflected the recovery in the industry in rising by 27%. The performance helped to validate the strategy in the fund, which in turn was supported by corporate activity such as Comcast's aborted acquisition of Disney and the stake building in Manchester United. The Lindsell Train Japan Fund, in declining 2.9%, failed to generate absolute returns for the second year in succession. This represented a disappointment for the Company as it would have been helpful to have made more money in Japan at a time when it was one of the better performing global markets. The Manager's returns have never had much correlation with the market in the past so this in no way precludes the possibility of generating significant positive returns in the future even if the performance of the market changes. The value of the Company's holding in Lindsell Train Limited ('Lindsell Train') rose 23.4% to £720,565. This reflected a renewed advance in funds under management to £142m, partly due to market movements, but also reflecting £37m in additional funds. In addition, there was a further improvement in profitability allowing the payment of an increased dividend of £50 per share, a 25% increase on last year, representing a historical yield of 4.6% on Lindsell Train's value at 31 March 2004. The prospects for future business are as ever primarily governed by investment performance. The best prospects are in the long UK equity strategy, where performance of the Finsbury Growth Trust over three years has annualised at 2.4% above the benchmark index. The returns from the Japan Fund and, to a lesser extent the Global Media Fund, need to improve before Lindsell Train can realistically expect to add assets to these two products. Although both have generated absolute returns since inception, they have also performed below expectations for periods of time. The Media Fund has decisively recovered whilst the Japan Fund remains some 10% below its high watermark (prior fiscal year-end high price). On a more encouraging note, Lindsell Train has recently been appointed as the investment advisor of the Close Finsbury Japan Fund. Although the mandate is small, (£9m), it allows Lindsell Train to build a long-only Japanese performance track record to add to the long/short one. The Company's income increased 6.0%, partly in response to higher dividends but also to some increase in net leverage from 15.3% of NAV to 20.8%. As a result, its debt service expense rose by £31,000, a cost almost offset by a 10% reduction in expenses of £25,000. The directors propose a dividend of £1.45 per share, a rise of 11.5% on last year in keeping with their policy to retain as much profit as necessary without jeopardising the Company's investment trust status. In the three years of the Company's existence the Manager has elucidated a clear and distinctive investment policy, both in these semi-annual reports and in the monthly updates released to the Stock Exchange. It has proven to be long-term, characterised by low activity and has inevitably been punctuated with periods when it seemed out of fashion. The recent widening discount of the share price to the NAV is a reflection of such a period. Today, some investors rightly or wrongly want to take on more risk than the Manager is prepared to do, are put off by the Company's exposure to bonds and the US dollar and place less value on the strategic holding in the management company following disappointing performance in one of its products. The directors recognise that these perceived disadvantages might change quickly for the better. They reserve the option to exercise the power voted to them by shareholders to repurchase shares for cancellation should they deem it prudent. Following recent consultations, the majority of shareholders exhibited a greater concern about the diminished share trading volume likely to result from any cancellation of shares rather than any immediate need to eliminate the discount. Today your Company's NAV* is up 3% since inception versus a 32% fall in world equity markets. Although acceptable absolute returns continue to elude us the directors judge that the investment strategy has been implemented in a clear and thoughtful manner with the results so far showing signs of considerable success in some areas and much promise in others. In addition, the directors continue to believe that the potential value of your holding in Lindsell Train has been and could be enhanced further by the support your Company provides to its business. *Adjusted to include dividends. R M Swire Chairman 28 May 2004 Investment Manager's Report As this report is written, the net asset value (NAV) performance of your Company is as follows. The NAV* has gained 2% over 3 months, 7% over 6 months, 8% over 12 months and 3% since inception. World equity markets (as measured by the MSCI World Index in sterling), by contrast, have lost 2% over 3 months, gained 1% and 11% over 6 months and 1 year, and fallen 32% since the Company's inception on 22 January 2001. Your Company is one of only a handful in HSBC's Global Growth Investment Company sector, where your Company sits, that have generated any positive NAV return over the longer period. Shareholders may reasonably regard these statistics as irrelevant. For one thing, we have never claimed it appropriate to measure the Company against the an equity index and, undeniably we have failed to keep the NAV growing at the target rate of absolute return we set as our objective at launch three years ago. In addition, we can't disguise our disappointment at not capturing more of the gain in world equity markets over the past 12 months. However, we believe that the statistics are instructive for shareholders in two important ways. First, they show that we do not merely pay lip service to the investment objective. We have constructed a portfolio that we believe has the potential to generate steady real returns through stock market cycles - a portfolio that can participate when equity markets are buoyant, but that offers defensive qualities when times are tougher. Shareholders might prefer a more active strategy, to see us swing fully invested into equities when the markets are going up and out of them during bear phases, but, with regret, we feel better able to respond to the price opportunities and excesses in individual securities rather than whole markets. Second, and this is either good or bad depending on shareholder's objectives and expectations, the Company's NAV performs very differently from the main equity markets, holding up well during the bear market, lagging the recovery of 2003, but also putting on a strong burst of performance, such as that of the last three months, during a generally quiet period for equity markets. We expect the Company to continue to exhibit these characteristics but hope that the annualised rate of real return will improve. As our unremarkable return from inception illustrates, it is easier to set out an objective of earning steady annual returns, while protecting against falls, than to achieve it. Our approach to this challenge is based on two planks. First, we assume assets that offer a high, safe income will always attract investor support, even if there are periods when such assets perform dully in capital terms and that this income will make a measurable contribution to the Company's total return. If we can identify assets with not only high, safe but also growing streams of income, then so much the better and much of our research into the equity market is directed at companies that can offer this prized characteristic. Our largest equity position, A.G. Barr ('Barr'), is, we believe, a wonderful example of the type of opportunity we seek. Ten years ago, Barr paid a dividend of 6.75p, last year that payment reached 25.5p. Over the decade its share price has more than doubled. Meanwhile, during the three years that we have accumulated stock, the shares have risen more than 50.0% and we have enjoyed a dividend yield of over 5.5% on our average purchase price. Of course, we would love to unearth more Barrs, but we find them in short supply. In the meantime, then, for the 'high income' portion of our strategy, we are content to maintain exposure to a mix of fixed interest assets, including both government bonds and preference shares. We are as guilty as any in, at times, over-intellectualising the case for bonds and fixed interest. But in the end, the case is simply stated. Inflation is very low, having fallen to 1.1% annualised in the UK in the month before this report was written and real yields on safe fixed interest are high by historical standards. Against current low inflation these low risk returns appear attractive to us. When presented with opportunities, though, to invest in equity with comparable yields and the prospect of growth, as we were with Diageo last year (first purchased on a yield of c4.4%) we won't hesitate to do so. Second, we have two other strategies at work in the Company, both designed to generate capital gains, rather than immediate high income. These two, latterly, have begun to deliver positive returns for shareholders and we look to the future for exceptional results from them, always recognising that this is a riskier, volatile portion of our portfolio mix. These 'capital growth' strategies are captured in the two Lindsell Train funds and in some individual equity positions, some of which are held within the funds too. While we do not claim that these two strategies are necessarily the best available today to any investor in any market, nonetheless, we continue to believe strongly that our ideas are the best for us, because they are located in markets or sectors where we have experience and understanding of the opportunities. So, we look for exceptional returns to be earned from our Japanese portfolio. Here, we have accumulated in its long portfolio a range of Japanese companies with cash generative businesses, valued in aggregate on a free cash flow yield of over 5.0%. If Japanese corporate culture continues to change and more of those free cash flows are delivered to investors rather than accumulated on balance sheets, then this portfolio at a minimum should maintain its value, we expect. One of its constituents, Kao, a Japanese cosmetic and household products company, does this already. Over the last five years all its free cash flow has been returned to shareholders either though dividends or share buybacks. This year they plan to raise the dividend 18%. This is atypical of historical behaviour by Japanese companies and a promise of significant future total returns. At the same time, we expect the fund's short book, characterised by cyclical, highly indebted, cash consumptive companies, to contribute to the gains, as investors require higher yields from these to compensate for the unreliability of their returns. Meanwhile, our second 'capital growth' strategy, that of participating in the accelerating rate of change in the global media industry, is beginning to appear less ill-conceived, or at least more timely, than it did 12 months ago, at the nadir of the sector's fortunes. Our fund has gained over 30.0%, in dollars, since that low and has now outperformed its sector by more than 20.0% since launch, just over two years ago. We regard Comcast's bid for Disney, announced in the first quarter of 2004, as being the most powerful endorsement imaginable for the strategy we pursue in the fund (media 'distribution' assets are vulnerable without ownership or control of media 'content') and look forward to further gains. Nintendo is an investment held in both funds and a direct position in the Company. As such it encapsulates all the themes reviewed in this report. For instance, its shares have offered over the last 10 years a free cash flow yield of 4.5% and a dividend yield today 45.0% higher than the market average and better than that available on a 10 year government bond (albeit only 1.3%). With over 40.0% of its current market capitalisation accounted for by the net cash on its balance sheet, Nintendo fits the 'higher, safe yield' category we described above. Meanwhile, if Nintendo were to behave in a more 'Western', shareholder friendly fashion, distributing more of its prodigious cash flows, at the same time as its 'content' became more highly valued by investors, then we could have a great investment on our hands, that neatly captures our thinking about the opportunity in both Japan and the media industry. The shares have been poor performers since we began to accumulate them, but have done better so far in 2004. Your Company has utilised its borrowing powers to just under half its maximum permitted levels. We believe that the returns on both sides of the Company's portfolio, the 'income' and 'capital gain' portions, should exceed the current and likely future costs of borrowing. If correct, this means the leverage will enhance total returns for our shareholders. We will, of course, regularly review this assumption in the light of changes in interest rates. *Adjusted to include dividends. N Train Investment Manager Lindsell Train Limited 28 May 2004 The Lindsell Train Investment Trust plc Statement of Total Return incorporating the revenue account for the year ended 31 March 2004 2004 2003 Revenue* Capital Total Revenue* Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Gains/(losses) on investments - 2,029 2,029 - (3,151) (3,151) Exchange differences - (68) (68) - 3 3 Gains on forward currency contracts - 24 24 - 9 9 Income 775 - 775 731 - 731 Investment management fees (92) - (92) (82) - (82) Other expenses (111) (2) (113) (146) (1) (147) Net return/(deficit) before finance costs and taxation 572 1,983 2,555 503 (3,140) (2,637) Interest payable and similar charges (159) - (159) (128) - (128) Return/(deficit) on ordinary activities before tax 413 1,983 2,396 375 (3,140) (2,765) Tax on ordinary activities (6) - (6) (9) - (9) Return/(deficit) on ordinary activities after tax for the financial year 407 1,983 2,390 366 (3,140) (2,774) Dividends in respect of equity shares (290) - (290) (260) - (260) Transfer to/(from) reserves 117 1,983 2,100 106 (3,140) (3,034) Return/(loss) per Ordinary Share: £2.03 £9.92 £11.95 £1.83 £(15.70) £(13.87) All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. * The revenue account in this statement represents the profit and loss account of the Company for the financial year. Balance Sheet as at 31 March 2004 2004 2003 £'000 £'000 Fixed assets Investments 24,182 20,661 Current assets Debtors 907 1,295 Cash at bank 7 11 914 1,306 Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (5,082) (4,053) Net current liabilities (4,168) (2,747) Total assets less current liabilities 20,014 17,914 Capital and reserves Called up share capital 150 150 Special reserve 19,850 19,850 20,000 20,000 Capital reserve - realised (33) 211 Capital reserve - unrealised (226) (2,453) Revenue reserve 273 156 Equity shareholders' funds 20,014 17,914 Net asset value per Ordinary Share: £100.07 £89.57 Cash Flow Statement for the year ended 31 March 2004 2004 2003 £'000 £'000 Net cash inflow from operating activities 585 456 Returns on investments and servicing of finance (153) (126) Financial investment (1,522) (678) (1,090) (348) Equity dividends paid (260) - Decrease in cash (1,350) (348) Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement in net debt Decrease in cash in the year (1,350) (348) Exchange movements (68) 3 Opening net debt (2,656) (2,311) Closing net debt (4,074) (2,656) Reconciliation of movements in shareholders' funds 2004 2003 £'000 £'000 Opening shareholders' funds 17,914 20,948 Net revenue for the year 407 366 Dividend (290) (260) Capital surplus for the year 1,983 (3,140) Closing shareholders' funds 20,014 17,914 Notes The statutory accounts for the year ended 31 March 2004 will be finalised on the basis of the financial information presented by the directors in this preliminary announcement and will be delivered to the Registrar of Companies following the Company's Annual General Meeting. Copies will be sent to shareholders shortly and will also be available for collection from the Company's Registered Office at 77a High Street, Brentwood, Essex CM14 4RR. The above results at 31 March 2003 are an abridged version of the Company's full accounts which received an audit report that was unqualified and did not contain statements under Section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985 and which have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The net asset value per Ordinary Share is based on net assets of £20,014,000 (2003: £17,914,000) and on 200,000 Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000),being the number of Ordinary Shares in issue at the year end. Return per Ordinary Share: Revenue Return: The calculation of the revenue return per Ordinary Share is based on net revenue on ordinary activities after taxation of £407,000 (2003: £366,000) divided by 200,000 Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000) being the weighted average number of Ordinary Shares in issue during the year. Capital Return: The calculation of the Capital Return per Ordinary Share is based on net capital gains for the financial year of £1,983,000 (2003: loss £3,140,000) divided by 200,000 Ordinary Shares (2003: 200,000) being the weighted average number of Ordinary Shares in issue during the year. It is the intention of the directors to conduct the affairs of the Company so that it satisfies the conditions for approval as an investment trust company set out in section 842 of the Income and Corporation Taxes Act 1988. The Directors have proposed the payment of a final dividend of 145p (2003: 130p) per Ordinary Share payable on 15 July 2004 to shareholders registered on 11 June 2004 (ex-dividend 9 June 2004). This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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