3rd Quarter Results

Lancashire Holdings Limited 29 October 2007 LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED Fully converted book value grows 7.9% in Q3, 22.0% year to date Gross written premiums grow 33.1% in Q3, 40.2% year to date Combined ratio 44.0% in Q3, 49.2% year to date $100 million share repurchase authorisation Hamilton, Bermuda, 29 October 2007 Lancashire Holdings Limited ('Lancashire' or 'the Company') today announces its results for the third quarter of 2007 and the nine month period ended 30 September 2007, and the establishment of a $100 million share repurchase program. So far this year Lancashire has successfully navigated a higher than normal frequency of medium-sized worldwide natural catastrophes, while also generating strong underwriting results in the majority of the portfolio which is not exposed to natural catastrophes. Together, this has produced an excellent return for Lancashire shareholders. Financial highlights for the third quarter of 2007: • Fully converted book value per share grew 7.9% over the quarter; • Gross written premiums of $147.3 million, an increase of 33.1% from the third quarter of 2006. Net written premiums increased 36.5%; • Loss ratio of 23.1% and a combined ratio of 44.0%; • Total annualised investment return of 7.7% for the third quarter, including net investment income, realised gains and losses, and unrealised gains and losses; • Net income after tax of $105.2 million, or $0.51 diluted earnings per share. Financial highlights for the nine months to 30 September 2007: • Fully converted book value per share grew 22.0% year to date 2007, bringing the rolling 12 month growth in fully converted book value per share to 29.5%; • Gross written premiums of $598.8 million, an increase of 40.2% from the first nine months of 2006. Net written premiums increased 48.4%; • Loss ratio of 26.8% and a combined ratio of 49.2%; • Total annualised investment return of 6.0% for the nine months to 30 September 2007, including net investment income, realised gains and losses, and unrealised gains and losses; • Net income after tax of $275.6 million for the nine months to 30 September, 2007, or $1.34 diluted earnings per share. The Company also announces that on 29 October 2007 its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program (the 'Repurchase Program') which authorises the Company to repurchase its own shares by way of market purchases, tender offers, accelerated purchase programs or privately negotiated transactions, up to an aggregate purchase price of $100 million. Richard Brindle, Group Chief Executive Officer, commented: 'Lancashire had an excellent quarter, our best yet. Fully converted book value per share grew 7.9% in the quarter, bringing the year to date growth to 22.0%. At the start of the year, we believed we could deliver a return on equity of 20 to 25%; we are now increasing estimated 2007 return on equity to between 26 and 29%. Net income in the third quarter of 2007 increased exactly 100% from the same quarter in 2006, and net income for 2007 to date increased exactly 200% from the same period last year. 'In 2007 to date, despite two land-falling category five Atlantic hurricanes, insured losses in the United States from natural catastrophes have been lower than average. In the rest of the world however, this year has seen a higher than normal frequency of catastrophe losses. We have not incurred major losses from these events, which has helped produce a 2007 loss ratio of 26.8% to date. A large driver is our strategy to focus on a diversified insurance portfolio, rather than a narrow focus on natural catastrophe business. We are pleased to report that all segments of our business have generated strong underwriting profits in 2007. 'Rates are softening, a little faster than anticipated. Market cycles are inevitable but unpredictable. Rather than second-guess the timing of events, or lack of events, our strategy is to stay nimble so we can react to a market which is constantly changing. From an operational standpoint we do this by keeping our infrastructure tight and our underwriting centralised. We will react quickly when new opportunities arise, and move equally quickly when they diminish. From a capacity standpoint, we do this by adopting flexible capital strategies, recognising that outside factors can quickly and materially alter capital needs. By remaining a nimble company and paying close attention to all aspects of cycle management, we believe we can generate an attractive return for shareholders over extended periods of time. 'In a softening market, industry returns gradually fall until capacity reaches an appropriate level. We have been clear in our strategy. If underwriting opportunities decrease, Lancashire will reduce its capacity to an appropriate level. Our Board of Directors has today authorised a $100 million share repurchase program. We will make a further assessment on capital requirements nearer the end of the year. Should rate softening continue, we expect our 2008 portfolio will require less capital than we currently have. In addition to the $100 million share repurchase programme, we would also anticipate returning at least 50% of the profits realised in 2007 back to shareholders via a single substantial dividend. We anticipate share repurchases and significant dividends to become recurring weapons in Lancashire's arsenal of techniques for managing capital effectively in a softening market. We term this latter aspect of capital management 'strategic dividends'. Strategic dividends are in keeping with our philosophy of nimbleness, affording us flexibility in tailoring our capital needs while at the same time generating an attractive yield to investors. We will continually explore all methods of capital management as appropriate.' Underwriting results Gross written premiums increased 33.1% in the third quarter of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006. In 2007 to date, gross written premiums increased 40.2% compared to the first nine months of 2006. The main drivers of the growth in 2007 premium written compared to 2006 have been due to strategic changes within Lancashire, primarily the opening of the UK operating platform, which began underwriting in late 2006, which itself led to a substantial increase in the broker submission count in our second trading year. These structural benefits more than offset rate reductions, leading to year-on-year premium growth. Moving into the fourth quarter of 2007 and into 2008, while rates and terms in many classes remain good, it is predicted that continued rate softening will ultimately result in premium written declining compared to prior periods. Relatively little reinsurance is purchased in the third quarter. For the year to date, the amount of premium ceded was slightly higher than 2006, although as a ratio of gross written premium, ceded premium was lower at 13.7% in 2007 compared to 18.5% in 2006. Net written premiums increased 36.5% in the third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006, and increased 48.4% year to date over the same period in 2006. Sirocco Re, the energy business sidecar sponsored by Lancashire in 2006, is not being renewed for 2008. Net earned premiums as a proportion of net written premiums were 114.2% in the third quarter of 2007, and 87.6% in the nine months to 30 September 2007. The loss ratios of 23.1% and 26.8% for the three and nine months to 30 September 2007, respectively, reflect a very good underwriting performance in all segments. Investments Net investment income was $20.9 million for the third quarter, an increase of 52.6% over the third quarter of 2006. Net investment income was $56.2 million in the nine months to 30 September 2007, an increase of 48.3% over the same period in 2006. The increase in investment income is primarily due to high net operating cashflow, resulting in higher net invested assets. Total investment return, including net investment income, net realised gains and losses and net unrealised gains and losses, was $33.0 million in the quarter and $68.5 million for the year to date. Total investment return was higher than net investment income due primarily to volatile but strong fixed income markets in the third quarter, offset by a relatively weak equity market compared to earlier in the year. Lancashire's strategy to maintain a short duration and high credit quality investment portfolio remains unchanged. The portfolio contains no sub-prime securities. All securitised holdings are either government or agency securities or are rated AAA. Capital At 30 September 2007, total capital was $1.561 billion, comprising shareholders' equity of $1.430 billion and $131 million of long-term debt. Leverage was 8.4%. Outlook Following strong profits for the year to date, our estimated growth in fully converted book value per share is revised upwards from the previous guidance of 20 to 25%, to a new range of 26 to 29%, assuming a normal level of losses. 2007 gross premiums written are expected to be at least 20% higher than 2006. This is unchanged from previous guidance. Further detail of our 2007 third quarter results can be obtained from our Financial Supplement. This can be accessed via our website www.lancashiregroup.com. Investor Presentation and Earnings Call UPDATE There will be an investor conference call on the results at 11:30 UK time / 07: 30 EST on Tuesday 30 October 2007. This call will be hosted by Richard Brindle, Chief Executive Officer; Neil McConachie, Chief Financial Officer; and Simon Burton, Deputy Chief Executive Officer. The call can be accessed by dialing +44 (0) 207 806 1950/ +1 718 354 1385 with the passcode 1445892. A replay facility will be available for two weeks until Tuesday 13 November. The dial in number for the replay facility is +44 (0) 20 7806 1970 / +1 718 354 1112 and the passcode is 1445892#. A replay facility can also be accessed at www.lancashiregroup.com . For further information, please contact: Lancashire Holdings +1 441 278 8950 Neil McConachie Financial Dynamics +44 20 7269 7114 Robert Bailhache Nick Henderson Kekst & Company Inc. Michael Herley +1 212 521 4897 Mark Semer +1 212 521 4802 Investor enquiries and questions can also be directed to investors@lancashiregroup.com or by accessing the Company's website www.lancashiregroup.com. Consolidated Balance Sheet (Unaudited) 30 Sept 2007 Sept 30, 2007 December 31, 2006 $m $m assets cash and cash equivalents 539.5 400.1 accrued interest receivable 10.4 7.5 investments - fixed income securities - available for sale 1,254.2 896.3 - at fair value through income 22.6 - - equity securities, available for sale 73.2 70.3 - other investments 7.2 11.5 reinsurance assets - unearned premium on premium ceded 48.0 19.1 - reinsurance recoveries 1.5 - deferred acquisition costs 61.0 51.5 inwards premium receivable from insureds and cedants 176.7 173.7 investment in associate 21.7 23.2 other assets 34.2 9.5 total assets 2,250.2 1,662.7 liabilities insurance contracts - loss and loss adjustment expenses 158.7 39.1 - unearned premiums 418.6 325.7 - other payables 7.0 3.6 amounts payable to reinsurers 29.3 2.4 deferred acquisition costs ceded 6.6 2.5 other payables 69.4 23.2 long-term debt 130.9 128.6 total liabilities 820.5 525.1 shareholders' equity share capital 98.0 97.9 share premium 46.0 33.6 contributed surplus 848.1 849.7 fair value and other reserves 14.3 8.7 retained earnings 423.3 147.7 total shareholders' equity attributable to equity 1,429.7 1,137.6 shareholders total liabilities and shareholders' equity 2,250.2 1,662.7 basic book value per share $7.30 $5.81 fully converted book value per share $6.93 $5.68 Consolidated Income Statement (Unaudited) to 30 September 2007 Quarter 3 Quarter 3 Year to Year to 2007 2006 date date 2007 2006 $m $m $m $m gross premiums written 147.3 110.7 598.8 427.0 outwards reinsurance premiums (6.8) (7.8) (82.2) (78.8 net premiums written 140.5 102.9 516.6 348.2 change in unearned premiums 35.5 (6.4) (92.9) (247.8) change in unearned premiums on premium ceded (15.5) (16.3) 28.9 44.1 net premiums earned 160.5 80.2 452.6 144.5 net investment income 20.9 13.7 56.2 37.9 net realised gains (losses) and impairments 2.3 2.1 6.7 (1.3) share of profit of associate 1.1 2.0 3.9 2.0 net foreign exchange gains (losses) 1.7 (0.1) 3.5 (1.2) net other investment income (losses) (2.0) - (2.5) - total net revenue 184.5 97.9 520.4 181.9 insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses 38.1 12.8 122.9 20.2 insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses (1.0) - (1.5) - recoverable net insurance acquisition expenses 21.2 11.7 62.4 19.3 equity based compensation 4.4 5.5 10.8 16.1 other operating expenses 12.3 11.2 39.1 24.8 total expenses 75.0 41.2 233.7 80.4 profit before tax and finance costs 109.5 56.7 286.7 101.5 finance costs 4.4 4.1 10.5 9.6 profit before tax 105.1 52.6 276.2 91.9 tax (0.1) - 0.6 - profit after tax for the period attributable to 105.2 52.6 275.6 91.9 equity shareholders net loss ratio 23.1% 16.0% 26.8% 14.0% net acquisition cost ratio 13.2% 14.6% 13.8% 13.4% administrative expense ratio 7.7% 14.0% 8.6% 17.2% combined ratio 44.0% 44.6% 49.2% 44.6% basic earnings per share $0.54 $0.27 $1.41 $0.47 diluted earnings per share $0.51 $0.26 $1.34 $0.46 change in fully converted book value per 7.9% 5.9% 22.0% 10.5 % share Consolidated Cash Flow Statement (Unaudited) 30 Sept 2007 nine twelve months months 2007 2006 $m $m cash flows from operating activities profit before interest and tax 229.1 116.4 interest income 55.6 53.6 interest expense (8.5) (10.6) tax (0.6) (0.2) depreciation 1.0 0.6 amortisation of debt securities (0.8) (1.2) employee benefit expense 10.8 22.5 foreign exchange (2.4) 1.9 share of profit of associate (3.9) (3.2) net unrealised losses (gains) on derivative financial 2.3 (1.8) instruments net realised (gains) and impairments on investments (6.7) (0.8) net fair value losses on investments at fair value 0.2 - through income unrealised losses on swaps 0.1 0.9 accrued interest receivable (2.9) (5.6) reinsurance assets - unearned premium on premium ceded (28.9) (19.1) reinsurance recoveries (1.5) - deferred acquisition costs (9.5) (51.0) other receivables (23.4) (6.0) inwards premium receivable from insureds and cedants (1.2) (171.4) deferred tax asset (1.0) (0.8) insurance contracts - losses and loss adjustment expenses 118.7 39.1 - unearned premiums 92.9 323.1 - other payables 3.4 3.6 amounts payable to reinsurers 26.9 2.4 deferred acquisition costs ceded 4.1 2.5 other payables 45.3 18.6 corporation tax payable 0.8 1.0 accrued interest payable - - net cash flows from operating activities 499.9 314.5 cash flows from investing activities purchase of property, plant and equipment (1.3) (2.6) investment in associate - (20.0) dividends received from associate 5.4 - purchase of debt securities (1,628.7) (2,086.1) purchase of equity securities (21.9) (76.1) proceeds on maturity and disposal of debt securities 1,252.4 1,185.6 proceeds on disposal of equity securities 26.3 20.9 net purchase of other investments 3.3 (9.7) net cash flows used in investing activities (364.5) (988.0) net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 135.4 (673.5) cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 400.1 1,072.4 effect of exchange rate fluctuations on cash and cash 4.0 1.2 equivalents cash and cash equivalents at end of period 539.5 400.1 About Lancashire Lancashire, through its UK and Bermuda-based insurance subsidiaries, is a global provider of specialty insurance products. Its insurance subsidiaries carry the Lancashire group rating of A minus (Excellent) from A.M. Best with a stable outlook. Lancashire has capital in excess of $1 billion and its Common Shares trade on AIM under the ticker symbol LRE. Lancashire is headquartered at Mintflower Place, 8 Par-La-Ville Road, Hamilton HM 08, Bermuda. The mailing address is Lancashire Holdings Limited, P.O. Box HM 2358, Hamilton HM HX, Bermuda. For more information on Lancashire, visit the company's website at www.lancashiregroup.com NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: CERTAIN STATEMENTS AND INDICATIVE PROJECTIONS MADE IN THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AND ON THE CONFERENCE CALL THAT ARE NOT BASED ON CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACTS ARE FORWARD-LOOKING IN NATURE INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, STATEMENTS CONTAINING WORDS 'BELIEVES', 'ANTICIPATES', 'PLANS', 'PROJECTS', 'FORECASTS', 'GUIDANCE', 'INTENDS', 'EXPECTS', 'ESTIMATES', 'PREDICTS', 'MAY', 'WILL', 'SEEKS', 'SHOULD', OR, IN EACH CASE, THEIR NEGATIVE OR COMPARABLE TERMINOLOGY. ALL STATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE REGARDING THE GROUP'S FINANCIAL POSITION, RESULTS OF OPERATIONS, LIQUIDITY, PROSPECTS, GROWTH, CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PLANS, BUSINESS STRATEGY, PLANS AND OBJECTIVES OF MANAGEMENT FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS (INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND OBJECTIVES RELATING TO THE GROUP'S INSURANCE BUSINESS) ARE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE THE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE GROUP TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: THE NUMBER AND TYPE OF INSURANCE AND REINSURANCE CONTRACTS THAT WE WRITE; THE PREMIUM RATES AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF SUCH RENEWALS WITHIN OUR TARGETED BUSINESS LINES; THE ABSENCE OF LARGE OR UNUSUALLY FREQUENT LOSS EVENTS; THE IMPACT THAT OUR FUTURE OPERATING RESULTS, CAPITAL POSITION AND RATING AGENCY AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS HAVE ON THE EXECUTION OF ANY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES; THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER FREQUENCY OR SEVERITY OF CLAIMS AND LOSS ACTIVITY THAN OUR UNDERWRITING, RESERVING OR INVESTMENT PRACTICES HAVE ANTICIPATED; THE RELIABILITY OF, AND CHANGES IN ASSUMPTIONS TO, CATASTROPHE PRICING, ACCUMULATION AND ESTIMATED LOSS MODELS; LOSS OF KEY PERSONNEL; A DECLINE IN OUR OPERATING SUBSIDIARIES' RATING WITH A.M. BEST COMPANY; INCREASED COMPETITION ON THE BASIS OF PRICING, CAPACITY, COVERAGE TERMS OR OTHER FACTORS; A CYCLICAL DOWNTURN OF THE INDUSTRY; CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS OR TAX LAWS IN JURISDICTIONS WHERE LANCASHIRE CONDUCTS BUSINESS; LANCASHIRE OR ITS BERMUDIAN SUBSIDIARY BECOMING SUBJECT TO INCOME TAXES IN THE UNITED STATES OR THE UNITED KINGDOM; AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OUR LOSS LIMITATION METHODS. ANY ESTIMATES RELATING TO LOSS EVENTS INVOLVE THE EXERCISE OF CONSIDERABLE JUDGMENT AND REFLECT A COMBINATION OF GROUND-UP EVALUATIONS, INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO DATE FROM BROKERS AND INSUREDS, MARKET INTELLIGENCE, INITIAL TENTATIVE LOSS REPORTS AND OTHER SOURCES. JUDGMENTS IN RELATION TO FLOOD LOSSES INVOLVE COMPLEX FACTORS POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS TYPE OF LOSS, AND WE CAUTION AS TO THE PRELIMINARY NATURE OF THE INFORMATION USED TO PREPARE ANY SUCH ESTIMATES. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS SPEAK ONLY AS AT THE DATE OF PUBLICATION OF THIS DOCUMENT. LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY OBLIGATION OR UNDERTAKING (SAVE AS REQUIRED TO COMPLY WITH ANY LEGAL OR REGULATORY OBLIGATIONS (INCLUDING THE AIM RULES)) TO DISSEMINATE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT ANY CHANGES IN THE GROUP'S EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES ON WHICH ANY SUCH STATEMENT IS BASED. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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