Preliminary Interim Results

JP Morgan Flem Chinese Inv Tst PLC 24 May 2002 LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT JPMORGAN FLEMING CHINESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS The Directors of JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc yesterday announced the Company's results for the six months ended 31st March 2002. The Company's total return on diluted net assets for the six months to 31st March 2002 was +37.8%. The Company's benchmark, the MSCI Golden Dragon Index (in sterling terms), produced a total return of +38.3% and the total return to shareholders (change in share price with net dividend (if any) reinvested) for the period was +57.5%. Market Performance Hong Kong The Hang Seng was trapped in a tight trading range between 10,000 and 12,000 throughout the review period. Aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve following September's terrorist attacks helped boost investor confidence early in the period, and the market soon reached the 12,000 level as it began to price in a US economic rebound in the second half of 2002. However, this optimism soon dissipated as Hong Kong continued to show few signs of emerging from a sharp recession despite the rate cut stimulus. Unemployment rose to an historic high, while hopes of a recovery in the residential property market remained very fragile given the abundant supply of residential apartments. These concerns helped pull the Hong Kong stock market back towards the bottom of its range in January and February. The poor performance of China's two large-cap wireless telecom operators listed in Hong Kong, China Mobile and China Unicom, also constrained the market's performance as consistently negative news flow (including competition fears and regulatory concerns) pulled both of them sharply lower over the period. Because of their large weighting in the Hang Seng (together, the two phone companies account for close to 18% of the index), their decline had a significant impact on the market as a whole. However, the performance of export-related stocks was good, on the expectation that the US economic recovery would be quick and strong. Export-oriented companies, such as Li & Fung and Johnson Electric, rose particularly strongly from their post-11th September lows, gaining more than 50% each over the period. China Chinese domestic A-shares fell slightly over the period, constrained by rumours that the government had produced a timetable for the disposal of state-owned shares. These rumours had been circulating in the market for sometime, but there had not been any official announcement to confirm or deny them. The eventual disposal of these shares will generate a huge supply overhang in the domestic A-share market, but the disposal is nevertheless essential for the government as it needs the money to fund China's growing social security system and to pay unemployed workers. At the time of writing, the timing of these disposals is still undecided and most likely will not be executed this year. Meanwhile, B-shares fell sharply on concerns that domestic money may be allowed to be invested in the Hong Kong stock market. Investors expect liquidity to be drained from B shares to Hong Kong-listed H-shares if the scheme is approved, as H shares are cheaper than B shares. In contrast, Chinese H-shares were up strongly on the back of strong outperformance from commodity stocks, such as oils and petrochemicals. Oil prices have stayed quite stable after the sharp fall immediately following the 11th September terrorist attacks. However, with Middle-East tensions escalating, the oil price rose back to pre-11th September levels, which helped boost oil-related stocks. Petrochemical stocks also benefited from the expected recovery in demand for their products as the global economy recovers. Taiwan The Taiwan market was the best performing market in the Greater China region by a big margin during the review period. Taiwan's outperformance was the result of rising confidence in the US economic recovery, as the island's technology and export-heavy stock market will be a major beneficiary of a pick up in US demand. In particular, investors were encouraged by data that showed that inventories of IT-related products were beginning to be rebuilt after months of sharp declines. Most important of all, the trend towards outsourcing continued, with Japanese companies and US companies speeding up their outsourcing efforts after September's terrorist attacks in order to remain competitive. Domestic economic statistics also showed an improvement after the sharp slowdown experienced in the first half of 2001. Foreign investors were particularly active in the market on expectation of a US recovery throughout the period. Local investors started to become more confident of the outlook and participate in the buying in December 2001 after the ruling Democratic Progressive Party gained the majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan election. Asset Allocation During the period, we added to positions in Taiwan at the expense of Hong Kong and Chinese stocks. Taiwan's electronic sector started to see strong orders growth from European and US customers, while the end of tech de-stocking in the US was also very positive. Meanwhile, Taiwanese manufacturers continued to benefit from the global out-sourcing trend, thanks to their low cost manufacturing bases,strong research and development capabilities and easy access to cheap land and labour resources from China. This trend accelerated after 11th September as corporations intensified their cost cutting efforts in the face of economic weakness. In Hong Kong, we currently prefer exporters to domestic-oriented stocks, as exporters are more geared towards the US economic recovery. Given the weakness of the Hong Kong economy, Hong Kong domestic plays like property and banks are likely to remain laggards. Outlook The outlook for the Hong Kong/China market is improving. Firstly, the Hong Kong economy is bottoming and activity appears to be picking up as the recovery in the US economy benefits external trade. Secondly, Chinese economic growth, at 7.6% in the first quarter, was higher than expected. Domestic consumption remains stable while external trade is picking up strongly. Finally, the asset allocation shift away from Hong Kong/China by global investors should now have come to an end, giving scope for a rebound in Hong Kong relative to other regional markets. The outlook for Taiwan remains tied to the fate of the US. Given the strong performance of tech stocks in Taiwan over the last six months, it is likely that they will enter into a period of consolidation before making further gains. However, the focus of the market has now shifted to financial stocks, as there are signs that the restructuring of Taiwan's banking industry is speeding up. We remain sceptical of the quality of Taiwanese banking stocks, but will monitor the situation closely. Investment Strategy We have already seen some signs of economic recovery in the US in the first quarter of 2002. Exporters in the greater China region have outperformed significantly on the back of this recovery. We expect exporters to continue to do well into the second half of 2002. However, the relative out-performance of exporters over domestic plays is likely to be smaller going forward, especially if the Hong Kong economy begins to recover. We intend to increase our exposure to domestic plays in Hong Kong, such as property developers and banks, when we are more confident that a domestic recovery is taking place. In Taiwan, we expect electronics shares to continue to do well on the back of a strong order book recovery. In particular, we are finding good opportunities among personal computer makers, hand-set companies and foundries. We firmly believe that we will continue to add value by picking the winners in the Taiwan market. J. P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited - Secretary 24th May 2002 For further information, please contact: Hilary Lowe J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited................020 7742 6000 JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2002 Statement of Total Return (Unaudited) Six months to 31st March 2002 Six months to 31st March 2001 Year to 30th September 2001 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Realised gains/ (losses) on investments - 2,785 2,785 - (2,510) (2,510) - (5,040) (5,040) Net change in unrealised appreciation - 8,251 8,251 - (3,872) (3,872) - (14,909) (14,909) Net (losses)/gains on currency - transactions (63) (63) - 15 15 - (15) (15) Other capital - - - (8) (8) (21) (21) charges Franked dividends - - - 87 - 87 134 - 134 Unfranked dividends 187 - 187 118 - 118 487 - 487 Scrip dividends - - - 5 - 5 103 103 Deposit interest 4 - 4 15 - 15 24 - 24 Stocklending fees 16 - 16 - - - - - - _______ ________ _______ ______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______ Gross return 207 10,973 11,180 225 (6,375) (6,150) 748 (19,985) (19,237) Management fee (203) - (203) (268) - (268) (510) - (510) Other administrative expenses (146) - (146) (114) - (114) (274) - (274) Interest payable (12) - (12) (24) - (24) (58) - (58) _______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ Return before (154) 10,973 10,819 (181) (6,375) (6,556) (94) (19,985) (20,079) taxation Taxation (4) - (4) 7 - 7 (46) - (46) ______ _______ _______ ______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ Return attributable to ordinary shareholders (158) 10,973 10,815 (174) (6,375) (6,549) (140) (19,985) (20,125) ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Return per ordinary (0.27)p 18.87p 18.60p (0.30)p (10.99)p (11.29)p (0.24)p (34.13)p (34.37)p share Dividend (s) per Nil Nil Nil ordinary share JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2002 BALANCE SHEET 31st March 31stMarch 31 September 2002 2001 2001 £'000 £'000 £'000 Investments at valuation 40,001 42,829 28,075 Net current (liabilities) / assets (585) (382) 529 ______ _______ _______ Total net assets 39,416 42,447 28,604 ===== ===== ===== Net asset value per ordinary share 67.8p 72.4p 49.2p CASH FLOW STATEMENT 2002 2001 2001 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net cash outflow from operating activities (62) (245) (250) Net cash outflow from returns on investments and servicing (12) (24) (58) of finance Total tax recovered 10 59 59 Net cash (outflow)/inflow from capital expenditure and (844) 1,260 2,600 financial investment Net cash inflow from financing 916 (2,565) (2,832) _______ ______ ______ Increase /(Decrease) for the period 8 (1,515) (481) ===== ==== ==== The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. Statutory accounts for the year ended 30th September 2001 have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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