Interim Results

JP Morgan Flem Chinese Inv Tst PLC 10 June 2003 LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCMENT JPMORGAN FLEMING CHINESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF INTERIM RESULTS The Directors of JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc announce the Company's results for the six months ended 31st March 2003. The Company's total return on diluted net assets for the six months to 31st March 2003 was -1.6%. The Company's benchmark, the MSCI Golden Dragon Index (in sterling terms), produced a total return of -1.9% and the total return to shareholders for the period was +10.9%. Over the same period the Company's share price rose from 34.3p to 37.8p and its discount to net assets declined from 21.1% to 11.3%. Market Performance The Chinese economy has been one of the best performing economies in the world over the last few years. After growing by 8.1% in 2002, China's economic growth accelerated to 9.9% in the first quarter of 2003. Although the key drivers behind this growth have been the export sector, fixed asset investments and foreign direct investment, domestic consumption is now showing encouraging signs of picking up, with notable growth in demand for mobile phones, cars and residential property. The domestic Chinese stock markets, however, have not performed in line with the economy, with Chinese equities suffering a fall during the period under review. One constraining factor has been investor concern over the potential sale by the government of state-owned shares and the subsequent increase in the supply of equities that this would cause. Also, high valuations, poor corporate governance and bad management have led to a general loss of confidence in Chinese shares. In contrast to the problems experienced by domestically listed equities, Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong have performed very well. Most of these companies have reported better-than-expected 2002 and first-quarter 2003 results, benefiting from strong Chinese demand for raw materials, as well as from rising export demand. Oil companies have also performed well, as they were perceived to be defensive during a period of high oil prices. The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has mirrored the economic prospects of Hong Kong. Domestic-related stocks, like property and retailing, were the worst performers even before the SARS virus became an issue. The high unemployment rate and deflationary pressure have affected domestic consumption. However, export-related stocks have performed well as demand from the US for Chinese exports continued to grow. The Taiwan technology sector suffered from the lack of demand visibility for US IT-related products due to the Iraqi War and the slow pace of recovery of the US economy. However, cyclical sectors did very well on the back of strong demand from China. Taiwanese companies based in China also outperformed, as they benefited from China's strong economic growth, which translated into strong revenue and profits growth. Outlook The outlook for the Greater Chinese stock markets remains uncertain in the short-term, due to the possible consequences of SARS on the region's economy. However, looking beyond the likely one or two quarters of disruption, the medium term outlook remains very positive. China continues to offer excellent growth potential and investment opportunities. Company profits for 2002 and for the first quarter of 2003 have exceeded expectations in the majority of cases, reflecting the strength of the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, domestic demand has been very strong and attributable to structural rather than cyclical factors. For example, demand for cars rose by 60% in 2002 and is expected to grow by another 30-40 % in 2003. With reductions in import tariffs on cars, following China's joining of the World Trade Organisation, the growing spending power of Chinese consumers and the current low penetration rates in this market, demand for cars is expected to grow significantly over the next few years. Hong Kong's economy was poised for a mild recovery from recession, but its progress has definitely been slowed by SARS. Domestic-related sectors have been hit the hardest and it will take some time to see a recovery. On the other hand, export sectors should remain active and will be a major support to the Hong Kong economy in the near term. The budget deficit may now take longer to be resolved given the impact of SARS. However, the view is maintained that the Hong Kong dollar will remain stable, given the abundant reserves to support the currency. The long-term outlook for Taiwan's technology companies remains optimistic. The outsourcing trend has not shown any signs of abating, with Taiwan's electronic companies moving their manufacturing bases to China in order to maintain their cost competitiveness. Some Taiwanese companies are already making good progress infiltrating the vast domestic market in China. Also, Taiwan's electronic companies will be the beneficiaries once the business sector in the US starts to invest once again, while Taiwanese companies selling into China will benefit from strong demand from the petrochemical, steel and automobile sectors. Investment Strategy The outlook for China's economy and equity market has become more optimistic and the impact of the SARS disease is considered to be transitional. Therefore the opportunity is being taken to increase exposure to Chinese equities. The Company's investments have been focused on export-related sectors (shipping and container terminal operators), the defensive power utilities sector and the booming domestic consumption sectors such as automobiles. In Hong Kong, the Company is underweight in domestic-related stocks and it is expected that the impact of SARS will have a longer-term impact on companies that are already suffering from the territory's prolonged economic recession. Overweight positions have been maintained in export-related stocks, on the expectation that demand from the US will recover and the export sector will lead the Hong Kong economy out of the current difficult times. In Taiwan, given the uncertainty in demand for IT-related products, the Company has maintained its underweight position in technology companies, but will revisit this decision when there is better visibility in order books. Attention has been focused on China-related stocks, which are benefiting from the strong demand from China. SARS Update Hong Kong started to report SARS cases in mid-March 2003. The situation appears to have peaked in April, since when the number of new cases has fallen significantly to below 20 per day. In early May most schools had reopened and life in general was returning to normal. The economic loss is difficult to assess at this point, but suffice to say that the worst affected sectors are transportation, retailing and domestic consumption. The Hong Kong government has announced a stimulation package of HK$11.8 billion, which includes tax rebates and other concessions to the service industries. Economists have reduced their economic growth forecasts by around 1-2%, bringing expected GDP growth for 2003 down to around 0-1%. The Chinese authorities took drastic measures to contain the SARS virus in late April. The Minister of Health and the Mayor of Beijing have been replaced. Vice Premier and Politburo member Wu Yi has become the Minister of Health and is responsible for all the SARS-related policies and directives. In addition, China is to cooperate fully with the World Health Organisation and release daily information on the new SARS cases according to different provinces. In early May, China reported close to 200 new cases nationwide with more than half of these cases coming from Beijing. Economists forecast that SARS will reduce Chinese economic growth by around 0.5-1% this year, based on the assumption that SARS will be brought under control in three-to-six months. At present, export-related operations are running smoothly with no manufacturers from Hong Kong or Taiwan encountering any disruptions to operations due to SARS. This is very important, since as China is the 'Factory of the World' it has attracted a significant amount of foreign direct investment, which has helped export growth. If the export sector is not affected, the engine of growth will remain intact and the demand shock will only be transitional. In Taiwan, the number of SARS cases has been increasing steadily, but the total has remained low relative to that of China and Hong Kong and was around 100 in early May. Most of the SARS cases are confined to the hospitals and there is no evidence that the virus has found its way to the community as yet. Overall, the impact of SARS on the Greater China region has been severe both in terms of economic loss as well as in human lives. However, it is apparent that Guangdong, being the first province to report the disease, has seen the number of new cases reduce very quickly. Even in Hong Kong, where the number of new cases was reported to peak in late March and early April, the situation appears to be under control with new cases falling close to single digits. Given the experience of Guangdong and Hong Kong and the drastic measures implemented by the central government, we expect the disease will be brought under control in the second quarter. The impact to economic growth will be limited and there should not be any long term implications for the flow of foreign direct investment and export performance. Investment Manager The Directors would like to inform you that,following a reallocation of responsibilities within JF Asset Management's Greater China team, Mr Chung Man Wing has succeeded Mr Steve Luk as Investment Manager of the Company. The Directors welcome Mr Chung and sincerely thank Mr Luk for his contribution to the Company since its launch in 1993. J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited - Secretary 23rd May 2003 For further information please contact: Hilary Lowe, J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management (UK) Limited....020 7742 6000 JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2003 Statement of Total Return (Unaudited) Six months to 31st March 2003 Six months to 31st March 2002 Year to 30th September 2002 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Realised (losses)/ gains on investments - (384) (384) - 2,785 2,785 - 123 123 Net change in unrealised losses - (121) (121) - 8,251 8,251 - (3,410) (3,410) Currency gains/ (losses) on cash - and short term - 6 6 (63) (63) - (11) (11) deposits held during the period Other capital - (7) (7) - - - - (14) (14) charges Overseas dividends 227 - 227 187 - 187 673 - 673 Scrip dividends 5 - 5 - - - 201 - 201 Deposit interest 8 - 8 4 - 4 6 - 6 Stocklending fees 2 - 2 16 - 16 25 - 25 _______ ________ _______ ______ _______ ________ _______ _______ _______ Gross return 242 (506) (264) 207 10,973 11,180 905 (3,312) (2,407) Management fee (157) - (157) (203) - (203) (417) - (417) Other administrative expenses (99) - (99) (146) - (146) (236) - (236) Interest payable - - - (12) - (12) (21) - (21) _______ _______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ Return before (14) (506) (520) (154) 10,973 10,819 231 (3,312) (3,081) taxation Taxation (6) - (6) (4) - (4) (60) - (60) ______ _______ _______ ______ _______ ______ _______ _______ _______ Return attributable to shareholders (20) (506) (526) (158) 10,973 10,815 171 (3,312) (3,141) ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== Return per ordinary (0.03)p (0.87)p (0.90)p (0.27)p 18.87p 18.60p 0.30p (5.70)p (5.40)p share Dividend per Nil Nil 0.25p ordinary share JPMorgan Fleming Chinese Investment Trust plc Unaudited figures for the six months ended 31st March 2003 BALANCE SHEET 31st March 31st March 30thSeptember 2003 2002 2002 £'000 £'000 £'000 Investments at valuation 23,962 40,001 22,037 Net current assets/(liabilities) 832 (585) 3,283 ______ _______ _______ Total net assets 24,794 39,416 25,320 ===== ===== ===== Net asset value per ordinary share 42.6p 67.8p 43.5p CASH FLOW STATEMENT 2003 2002 2002 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net cash (outflow)/inflow from operating activities (67) (62) 58 Net cash outflow from returns on investments and - (12) (21) servicing of finance Total tax recovered - 10 9 Net cash inflow /(outflow) from capital expenditure and 857 (844) (324) financial investment Total equity dividends paid (145) - - Net cash (outflow)/inflow from financing (121) 916 123 _______ ______ ______ Increase /(Decrease) in cash for the period 524 8 (155) ===== ==== ==== The above financial information does not constitute statutory accounts as defined in Section 240 of the Companies Act 1985. Statutory accounts for the year ended 30th September 2002 have been delivered to the Registrar of Companies. J.P. MORGAN FLEMING ASSET MANAGEMENT (UK) LIMITED May 2003 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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