Independent Valuation

Fusion Oil & Gas PLC 31 October 2003 Fusion Oil & Gas plc ('Fusion' or 'the Company') Independent Valuation On 20th October 2003, Fusion stated it had commissioned an independent technical review of its assets to establish the quantum of the proven, probable and possible reserves that could be reasonably attributed to the Company. Fusion has now received the report, which was prepared by Scott Pickford Ltd (' Scott Pickford'), a leading firm of oil and gas valuation experts. Below is Scott Pickford's executive summary of its report. 'EVALUATION OF CERTAIN WEST AFRICAN HYDROCARBON EXPLORATION INTERESTS In response to your request we have reviewed the interests and given indicative values to the prospects and leads recognized within the West African petroleum exploration licences owned by various subsidiaries of Fusion Oil & Gas plc (hereafter collectively referred to as 'Fusion'). Particular emphasis has been given to those prospects that are believed to be, given the current state of knowledge, the most likely to be selected as early drilling candidates. We have also made comments about the nature of other prospects and leads within the current inventory and the risks associated with them. Our evaluation relates specifically and solely to the subject assets and is conditional upon various assumptions that are conformable with good oil industry practice. The subject licences are listed below. Country Licence Area Fusion net interest Mauritania PSC A 10,474 km(2) Royalty based on 3% PSC B 10,680 km(2) Royalty based on 6% Senegal/Guinea-Bissau Cheval Marin 6,292 km(2) 10% Common Zone* (AGC) Croix du Sud 3,546 km(2) 88% Cameroon Ntem 2,080 km2 20% Gabon Iris 607 km(2) 20.57% Themis 1,215 km(2) 20.57% Senegal Dome Flore 1,600km2 85% Guinea-Bissau** Sinapa & Esperanca 5,900 km2 5% Saharawi Arab Democratic Offshore TCA 217,000 km2 100%*** Republic (SADR) *award by the AGC joint administration which administers the border sector between Senegal and Guinea-Bissau **option to back-in after first two wells on each licence *** Premier has an option to take a 35% interest in any licences subsequently awarded thus reducing the Fusion interest to 65% The stage of exploration in the various licences is at different levels. In Mauritania, two prospects have been drilled whereas in other licences exploration leads have been recognised and additional work is in progress that will enable these to be ranked in terms of attractiveness for drilling. Our approach in evaluating the licences has been to review the technical work performed by Fusion and/or its Operators to define potential hydrocarbon accumulations and to estimate the value of such accumulations if they were to be successfully drilled and developed. We have not evaluated each individual prospect or lead as they are too numerous. At this stage in their respective exploration programmes all prospects and leads are subject to varying degrees of technical risk. Where that risk can be addressed by the acquisition of further seismic data (particularly 3D data) Fusion or its Operator has already implemented a programme to acquire the appropriate data. These new surveys are either in the process of being incorporated into the existing data with the aim of defining drillable prospects or in the final stages of specialist processing. It is confidently expected that these data will significantly reduce exploration risk. It is however possible that some of the prospects or leads may become less attractive as a result of the new 3D data and there are some risk factors that cannot be mitigated by seismic data alone. Due to the very large number of prospects and leads currently in the Fusion portfolio our approach has been to select two or three prospects or leads per licence area that are regarded as indicative of the kind of features that might be selected for early drilling. We have estimated the 'value' of the success case for each prospect/lead on a standard discounted cash flow basis assuming a 10% discount rate. It should be stressed that the exploration risk assigned to each prospect/lead may often be shared with other similar features (with the same play concept) therefore a successful appraisal of one such feature will significantly reduce the risk on others of the same type. These values should then be regarded as indicative of the reward expected from a number of similar prospects should they be successfully developed. We note that in areas other than Mauritania where appraisal of the Chinguetti discovery is well advanced there is no guarantee that commercial hydrocarbon accumulations will be found. However, we consider that Fusion itself has competent management and staff, and appropriate experience to undertake efficiently their planned exploration work and where it does not directly operate licences the relevant operator is a company of sufficient technical competence to carry out the planned exploration programmes and any subsequent appraisal work. In our statements and calculations the licence interests assumed are those presented to us by Fusion and we have not checked the title to the interests. Our estimates of potential reserves and values are based on data provided by Fusion. The data comprised seismic data, maps, geochemical data and interpretations, and other technical reports prepared by Fusion, its Operators and their consultants, plus various statements issued by Fusion. Furthermore we have accepted that these data represent the complete dataset available to Fusion at the time of our review. In this report the tables presenting details of prospect sizes and values refer to the size and value of the prospect as a whole. The reserves and value net to Fusion can be calculated by these values by the applicable Fusion net interest and are given in the following tables. On the 28th May 2003 Fusion signed a deal with Premier Oil plc the key elements of which are presented below: 1. Subject to completion of certain conditions, Fusion will receive a royalty interest over all future production from its two Mauritanian offshore blocks, including existing discoveries, in exchange for transferring ownership of its Mauritania licence holding companies to Premier. The level of royalty payment will be linked to the gross sale price as detailed below: Gross Sales Price (US$) Per Barrel Payment to Fusion <16 0.25 16-19 0.75 19-22 1.25 22-25 1.75 25-28 2.25 >$28 an additional $0.50 for every $3 increase in sale price 2. Fusion received from Premier a cash payment of US$10 million and will receive additional payments in the event of further commercial exploration successes in the Mauritanian blocks. These payments will be US$1 million for each commercial discovery over 50mmbbls in PSC A and US$2 million for each such discovery in PSC B other than in respect of the Chinguetti and Banda discoveries. 3. Subject to completion of certain documentation, Premier will acquire an 18% interest in the two Gabon licences Themis and Iris Marin owned by Fusion in return for a carry on Fusion's share of the current exploration programme (including up to 4 wells - 2 in each PSC). Premier will have the right to withdraw after the drilling of the first exploration well in each PSC in which case Premier would return its 18% interest to Fusion. 4. Fusion granted Premier an option to acquire an interest in any exploration licence awarded to Fusion in the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) under its recent TCA in exchange for funding initial exploration activity on a promote basis. 5. Premier granted Fusion the option to acquire an interest in two licences offshore Guinea Bissau after the completion of the next exploration well on each licence. Summary of Reserves Tabulated below are the reserves and resources (net Fusion interest) listed by category and geographical area. The reserve definitions employed in this report follow the SPE/WPC guidelines (latest 2002 revision). Reserves and Value Reserve Category Licence Asset Reserve Volume Value (US$MM) (MMSTB) Proved Mauritania Chinguetti 3.4 2.5 PSC B PSC A & B Banda* 1.3 0.7 Total Proved 4.7 3.2 Probable PSC B Chinguetti 3.2 2.2 PSC A & B Banda 1.4 0.6 Sub-Total 4.6 2.8 Total Proved plus Probable 9.3 6.0 Possible PSC B Chinguetti 1.8 1.0 PSC A & B Banda 4.8 2.2 Sub-Total 6.6 3.2 Total Proved, Probable and 15.9 9.2 Possible *Banda is calculated to be split in the ratio 90:10 between PSC A & B Prospective Resources and Value The Prospective Resources category has been divided into two sub-divisions the first referring to Defined Prospects and the second to notional prospects i.e. those not yet currently defined but thought likely to be present on the basis of the available geophysical and geological data. Defined Prospects Licence Mean Resource Volume Unrisked Value (NPV) Risked Value (EMV) (US$MM) (MMSTB) (US$MM) Unrisked Risked Mauritania 120 34 61.8 33.6 AGC (Cheval Marin) 316 37 545.1 47.5 AGC (Croix du Sud)* 477(2073) 78(343) 602.4 (2,972.8) 83.2 (379.6) Guinea-Bissau 141 35 223.2 43.9 Cameroon 313 63 506.8 80.8 Gabon 239 51 306.0 57.7 Total 1606(3202) 298(563) 2,245.3 (4,615.8) 346.7(643.1) *Figures in parentheses refer to the reserves and value at the current Fusion interest level of 88% following the decision by Amerada Hess not to proceed to the drilling phase. The remaining figures assume that a further farmout deal will be done such that the net Fusion interest will once again revert to 20%. Notional Prospects and Value Licence Mean Resource Volume Unrisked Value (NPV) Risked Value (EMV) (US$MM) (MMSTB) (US$MM) Unrisked Risked AGC (Dome Flore) 200 40 486.2 90.0 SADR 390 29 190.3 3.1 Total 590 69 676.5 93.1 The foregoing text is from a valuation report carried out by Scott Pickford Ltd. Scott Pickford Ltd is an independent consultancy specialising in geology, geophysics, petrophysics, petroleum engineering and economic analysis. Except for the provision of professional services on a fee basis, Scott Pickford Ltd has no commercial arrangement with any person or company involved in the interests that are the subject of this report.' Friday 31st October 2003 Enquiries Fusion Oil & Gas plc Alan Stein, Managing Director Tel: +61 8 9226 3011 Fax: +61 8 9226 3022 Email: astein@fusionoil.com.au Peter Dolan, Chairman Tel: 020 8891 3252 Fax: 020 8891 1555 Email: pdolan@fusionoil.co.uk College Hill Associates Tel: 020 7457 2020 Fax: 020 7248 3295 James Henderson Email: james.henderson@collegehill.com Phil Wilson-Brown Email: phil.wilson-brown@collegehill.com The Directors of Fusion (other than Mr Williams and Mr Levison, who have not participated in these deliberations on the Offer) accept responsibility for the information contained in this announcement and to the best of their knowledge and belief (having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case), the information contained in this announcement is in accordance with the facts and does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information. Canaccord Capital (Europe) Limited ('Canaccord'), which is regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority, is acting exclusively for Fusion and is acting for no one else in connection with the Offer and will not be responsible to anyone other than Fusion for providing the protections afforded to clients of Canaccord nor for giving advice in relation to the Offer. Scott Pickford has given and has not withdrawn its written consent to the issue of this document with the inclusion therein of the executive summary of its report and of its name and/or references thereto in the form and context in which they appear. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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