Final Results

Caledonian Trust PLC 21 December 2004 For immediate release 21 December 2004 Caledonian Trust PLC Results for the year ended 30 June 2004 Caledonian Trust PLC, the Edinburgh based property investment holding and development company, announces its audited results for the year to 30 June 2004. CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2004 Introduction The Group made a profit of £434,662 in the year to 30 June 2004 compared to £507,967 last year. NAV per share rose by 3.3p to 173.9p. Income from rent and service charges was £614,735, less than the £962,587 received last year which included £426,000 income from St Margaret's House, Edinburgh before the lease determined in November 2002. The margin from trading property sales was £408,943, almost wholly from our Weir Court residential development, compared to £199,670 last year and this year there was an investment property sale, Clark Street, Paisley, yielding a profit of £584,291. Administrative expenses rose by £459,993, due primarily to an increase of almost £305,000 in property costs of which £228,000 relates to the vacancy of St Margaret's, and increased insurance and professional fees of which St Margaret's accounted for £80,000. Net interest payable rose by £35,500 due to the temporary reduction in cash balances to fund investment and trading but sales have resulted in a cash balance of £6,312,760 on 30 June 2004 compared to £5,233,211 last year. The weighted average base rate was 3.83%, marginally lower than the 3.90% for the year to 30 June 2003. On 30 June 2004 the Group's portfolio comprised by value 49.3% office investment property (of which 68.4 % is open plan) 22.9 % retail property, 3.1% industrial property, 19.2% development property and 5.5 % trading property. Review of Activities The Group's current property activities, which are primarily directed towards niche opportunistic investments with medium-term development prospects, continue to be varied and the result of our shift in strategy over the last few years is becoming evident. There have been no significant changes to our Edinburgh New Town investment portfolio. The La Tasca restaurant in South Charlotte Street appears to continue to trade well and is highly reversionary and the first review of the 25 year lease is in 2006. In 61 North Castle Street work started in October 2003 on a complex structural overhaul and the redevelopment of the upper two floors and the attic into two large flats entering off the original staircase at 59 North Castle Street. The lower flat sold soon after completion in July 2004 for £295,500 and the upper flat is currently under offer. Plans are being considered for the remaining two floors in 61 North Castle Street which await refurbishment. Our largest investment property in Edinburgh, St Margaret's House, a 92,845ft2 open plan office was let to the Scottish Ministers until November 2002. Plans for refurbishment to varying office specifications have been prepared together with proposals to remodel the facade. We have been advised that the property could most advantageously be marketed in smaller units into which the building could be easily sub-divided, as each floor of about 11,000ft2 is virtually self-contained and could be divided into two wings of 4,500ft2 and 6,500ft2, both capable of further sub-division. The building's specification is similar to that of St Magnus, Aberdeen, where we previously carried out a full refurbishment including air handling, suspended ceilings, and raised floors to create the British Council of Offices award winning 'best office fit out' in 2001. Total occupation costs, rents, rates and services are budgeted to be significantly below the current new Grade 'A' Edinburgh prices. As St Margaret's is located near the new Parliament and the city centre, has a prominent frontage to the A1 and a very generous parking ratio of one space per 550ft2, the refurbished building should be attractive to a wide range of occupiers. Unfortunately progress at St Margaret's has been delayed by the outstanding dilapidations claim for over £4m. We served a draft final dilapidations schedule on the Scottish Ministers in December 2002 and raised an action in January 2003 for damages in the Commercial Court. After various and protracted legal procedures Lord McKay set a proof for 18 January 2005 in the Commercial Court. We are now working with Colin Campbell QC, formerly Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, Junior Counsel, our solicitors and a wide range of expert witnesses to prepare for the proof. Our advice, and our understanding of the contract and the established practical interpretation of the meaning of 'full repairing and insuring leases' all favour our contention. Legal precedents are however few, usually ancient and sometimes ambiguous. Our investment property near Waterloo, London at Baylis Road/Murphy Street offers similar refurbishment potential to St Margaret's. Plans had been made for its refurbishment, but in view of the tenant's request for a further lease extension until 2005 and the very weak office market in that part of London, we have delayed work until market conditions improve. Like St Margaret's the properties are suitable for letting as a whole or in part and, as Murphy Street is open plan with good access, it is suitable for either office or distribution use. Planning and design work is nearly complete for our proposed development of 202 flats on our property at 100 West Street, Tradeston, Glasgow which is currently let to Western, a Saab franchise. Tradeston is a rapidly improving area adjacent to the M8 and to its junction with the proposed extension of the M74 and less than 600 yards from the Broomielaw development, Glasgow's 'square kilometre' financial services zone. 100 West Street is adjacent to a very a successful development by Barratt of 370 flats which is due for completion next year. I reported in the Interim Statement in March that we had completed two purchases in January 2004. In Paisley we acquired a 133,00ft2 warehouse on a 5.7 acre site off the market. This site, across the M8 from Glasgow Airport, is highly visible and easily accessible from the motorway. Shortly after marketing the property to let we received an attractive proposal from a neighbouring airport-related user to purchase the site and in April 2004 we completed a £2.0m sale of the property, yielding a profit on the transaction of £584,291. The second purchase from PPL Therapeutics PLC, was of St Clements Wells, a 200 acre East Lothian farm bordering the A1 just east of the A1/City Bypass interchange. The farm has two large modern sheds totaling 28,000ft and planning permission for an additional 32,000ft2 . While marketing the sheds to let during the summer we received an unsolicited approach from a local livestock farmer to purchase the farm for about £5,000 per acre, or 47% above the cost, to which we agreed and the sale completed in July 2004. Three further investment property purchases have been completed. In June, after a two year negotiation, we purchased a small industrial investment in Dyce, Aberdeen with a large frontage to the A947 on the roundabout between the existing BP HQ and their previously proposed new HQ on our former Stoneywood Business Park site. This site may become strategically important and currently yields almost 9%. In July 2004 we purchased a vacant warehouse in Ashton Road, Rutherglen for refurbishment and re-letting. The property is adjacent to the line of the proposed M74 extension in South Glasgow to join the M8 at the Kingston Bridge. Total costs are expected to be approximately £1m and the yield 10% on current values. In September 2004 we purchased for £295,500 a very small industrial/retail investment yielding about 9% in an improving residential area on the edge of Kirkcaldy adjacent to the A92 dual carriageway. Our site in Wallyford, where we are seeking planning permission for eight detached houses, borders Musselburgh and is within 400 yards of the main line station with easy access to the A1 near the City Bypass. Planning permission followed by a site start in a contiguous area for 280 houses is expected shortly which should greatly enhance our site. We expect to gain planning consent for a much larger development near Dunbar next year. We own one site which should accommodate 17 houses and have under option two other sites for 29 and 22 houses respectively. In common with many other sites in Scotland water and sewerage services are inadequate and require upgrading, which in order to expedite consent we have agreed to fund. The dual carriageway section of the A1 from Edinburgh has recently been extended from Haddington to Dunbar and a further small section is nearly complete. Plans have been proposed for a superstore and a budget hotel adjacent to the A1 immediately south of Dunbar which, if implemented, would be beneficial. Over the last few years housing developments comprising several hundred houses have been completed on the south side of Dunbar and the existing sites are largely 'built out'. In Edinburgh at Belford Road, where we hold a consent for 22,500ft2 Grade A office development, we continue to consider residential proposals for this difficult site. The most recent proposal for about 18,000ft2 of residential development plus car parking is almost within the existing planning envelope but necessitates extensive structural site works to provide car parking. Economic Prospects The Economist reports that World GDP is growing at its fastest rate for almost 30 years and that for the first time since 1980 the fifty five economies monitored are all growing. Growth rates in these different countries are much more synchronised than previously with only +/- 1% point growth from the mean covering 67% of economies compared with about +/- 4% points in the 1980s. Next year even more synchrony is expected as the fast-growing American and Asian economies slow and some European economies improve. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects world economic growth to be 4.9% in 2004 before slowing to 4.3% in 2005 and 4.0% in 2006. The EIU report states that persistently high oil prices threaten economic activity and their forecasts are based on average Brent Oil prices of $36 in 2004 and $32 and $28 in subsequent years. The oil price which was briefly below $20 in late 2001, averaged $25.0 and $28.8 in 2002 and 2003 respectively, but in 2004 rose from about $30 to $52.20 in October 2004 before falling back to below $40.62 recently. Recently some 'spot crude' was available at $32. Early in 2004 most forecasts were that oil would average $22-28, significantly below current estimates. The Bank of England suggests that higher recent and future estimated oil prices are not based primarily on supply restrictions or shorter term supply interruptions resulting from, for example, the Iraq war, but on further increases in world oil demand which is now estimated to grow by 3.5% this year as opposed to the earlier estimate of 1.5%. This increase in demand cannot easily be met by non- OPEC producers, where because of higher costs and taxes, up to 15% of producers require over $30 a barrel for an 8% return. Futures currently reflect a long-term oil price of about $35, the price forecast by Consensus Economics, up $15 from the average level in the 1990s. Fortunately any rise in oil prices should be much less damaging than the shocks of 1973-74 and 1978-80 when prices quadrupled and then trebled, as even at the recent peak, real oil prices were less than half previous levels. Oil is priced in US $ and the fall in the $ since 31 December 2002 has reduced the Sterling price by 22.3%. Moreover the economy is less reliant on oil as about a third less is used per unit GDP than in the 1980s. Oil prices in the mid-$30s are above those used in the EIU forecast, but as Goldman Sachs estimate that a 10% rise only reduces world GDP by 0.3% points lagged by a year, the expected change in the oil market is consistent with the EIU's positive world growth forecast. The other major risks to the world economy are both related to economic conditions in the US. The US economy has enjoyed the biggest monetary and fiscal stimulus in decades leading to a large rise in consumption supported by debt whose servicing costs comprise a record 20% of disposable income. Recently almost two thirds of GDP growth came from a fall in the savings rate to 0.4% of disposable income. However as this stimulus is withdrawn and interest rates and taxes rise there is a risk that private savings will rise sharply provoking a contraction in private consumption and delivering a major demand shock to the world economy. Fortunately a recent survey shows retail spending, housing sales and confidence rising and industrial production was up 5.2% in October and growth is forecast to fall slowly from 4.3% this year to 3.4% in 2005 as a slow adjustment takes place. A larger threat to the world economy is from a sharp adjustment of the US current-account deficit linked to the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus which has grown to nearly 6% of GDP and which has coincided with a recent fall in the $ average exchange rate of about 17%. On 19 November 2004 Alan Greenspan said 'given the size of the US current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances (i.e. foreign holdings of dollars) must occur at some point' and he rejected a possible central bank alliance to support the $ saying 'such intervention does not have a large impact on exchange rates'. These comments led many economists to predict further larger $ falls, say 15%, but at differing rates between currencies. A quarter of the US $124 billion trade gap is with China but the Renminbi is subject to Government exchange control and any adjustment is likely to be small, possibly up to 3%. The largest fall is likely to be against the Euro where the current rate of $1.30 per euro could rise to $1.50 or even $1.70 with Sterling showing a lesser appreciation from $1.86 to $2.00. Reduction of the US current account deficit will require a shift in resources from domestic consumption into exports which could only partly be achieved by depressing consumption and GDP. According to a recent study a 6% reduction in demand, equal to the current account deficit, would only reduce the current account deficit to 4.2%, but as it would also lower the demand for domestic products not traded, i.e. not in the current account, it would reduce GDP by 4.2%. The reduction in demand required to eliminate the deficit by suppressing demand is 17% which would result in an unthinkable 1930s type depression. A US $ devaluation, possibly with some demand reduction, is a less dramatic means of reducing the deficit. Some forecasters expect falls of 15% but economists at UCLA suggest that a depreciation of up to 34% would be required if the deficit were to be eliminated by exchange rate adjustment alone. The current deficit is financed by the rest of the world's 'dollar balances'. Provided the rest of the world accepts the deficit level or the speed of change, the depreciation of the $ can be smaller or slower or both. The US economy has adapted to large swings in the $ value frequently over the last 20 years including a drop of 40% in the mid 1980s which had few ill effects. Thus, provided a steep fall is avoided, precedence indicates the US economy should adjust relatively easily. The effects on other economies however may be more serious. For instance while in the 1980s the effect of the $ fall on the US was relatively benign it had a significant role in creating Japan's economic bubble as Japan lowered interest rates to mitigate the deflationary effect of the rising Yen. In the current $ realignment the Euro seems likely to make the largest percentage rise against the $ but unfortunately the Euro group contains Germany and France, the least flexible of the developed economies with already the highest unemployment, where even a slow rebalancing of the US economy will have unfavourable deflationary consequences. Fortunately Sterling's rise against the dollar is likely to be lower than the Euro's which, combined with the current greater flexibility of the UK economy, will limit the damage. Economic forecasts for the coming year discount a major economic shock, but a not insignificant risk remains. It is salutary to note that the IMF has shown that of the 60 recessions around the world in the 1990s only two were predicted by private sector forecasts a year in advance. The likely good outlook for the world economy provides a benign background for the UK economy. UK growth was estimated by independent economists to be 3.5% in the first half of 2004 but was expected to slow gradually to 1.9% in the second half of 2005. The main domestic risk to the economy comes from the household sector, specifically from a possible collapse in house prices. In recent years consumer spending has been supported by rising levels of debt and the ratio of household debt to income exceeds levels reached in the late 1980s prior to the last recession. Due to current lower interest rates debt servicing costs are lower than in the 1980s but a significant drop in house prices caused by further increases in interest rates, rising unemployment or, more likely, a change in perception or sentiment on the future course of house prices could initiate a consumer retrenchment Credible predictions of imminent falls in house prices have been made for at least a year when for example Capital Economics, who analysed UK prices as being 50% overvalued, forecast a 20% drop over three years, but most other forecasters were guardedly optimistic. Nationwide have suggested a gentle slow down, Bradford & Bingley a 7% rise and Hometrack a 4% rise adding, colourfully: 'There is more chance of finding Elvis on the moon than there is of a price crash next year'. Confusingly, the optimists appear to have been both right and wrong. In the year to September 2004 Halifax reported a rise of 20.5%, Nationwide 17.8% Academetrics 16.8%, Lloyds TSB Scotland 20.4% and Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre 11.2%. However, recent month to month comparisons from the Halifax and the Nationwide surveys showed price falls in September 2004. Indeed, Hometrack, which surveys house prices about 12 weeks prior to the stage used by the Building Societies, has reported declining prices for the last 4 months. Almost all economic analysis now suggests that the housing market is overvalued, but there is no consensus as to how far house prices are from fair value, and large declines of 10-15% have been forecast by Deutsche Bank, of 20% by Capital Economics and of 30% by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. This time the pessimists seem likely to be proved correct as the factors producing the current slow down will not be easily reversed. Interest rates as measured by Sterling futures are unchanged until at least December 2007; and projected economic growth falls in 2005 and 2006; Hometrack report 'reducing consumer confidence in the future housing market suggesting more house price falls over the coming months'. In the RICS September survey 56% of surveyors reported price falls and only 3% reported rises, the worst result since 1992, and, although until recently the Bank of England predicted house price growth would slow to zero over the next two years, in the November review the Governor cautioned that the downward adjustment of house prices might continue for two-to-three years, a statement viewed as further undermining confidence in the housing market. A minority of commentators, including Capital Economics and HSBC view the current housing market as an asset bubble, and the continued growth in bubbles depends crucially on the expectation of future growth, which once removed tends to prick the bubble: pricked bubbles do not 'plateau'. The housing market has produced bubbles before as every previous sharp real rise since 1960 has been followed by a burst. The monthly profile of real house price inflation up to and including the first monthly drop in price in 1988-1990 is remarkably similar to the profile up to the first drop in price in August 2004 in the current cycle indicating the start of steeper falls. House 'wealth' is by far the most important asset for the majority of the population and it seems self evident that feeling 'poorer', usually significantly so due to gearing, would have a direct affect on confidence and consumption. The Bank of England, which describes the housing market as 'unsustainably high' has however recently demonstrated that, despite there being a high correlation between annual real house price inflation and annual consumption growth until as recently as 2001, there is now a low correlation. Thus in the Inflation Report the Bank concludes 'spending growth is therefore expected to ease only moderately despite a sharp slowing in house price inflation'. The Bank has cogent arguments for the dramatic change in correlation. However, the recent correlation has not been substantiated by a downturn in the housing market and only appears quite suddenly from 2002! Indeed the Bank's Chief Economist regards the change in correlation as 'untested'. Falling house prices, lower consumer confidence, increased savings and reduced Mortgage Equity Withdrawal will reduce consumption and this will occur even when other economic conditions are relatively stable. Capital Economics takes a contrary view to the Bank of England stating: 'as and when the bubble bursts in the UK, the consequences will be .... serious' and savings will rise and consumer spending growth will slow sharply from 3.0% now to 1.0% next year and 1.5% in 2006 leading to a lower growth in GDP than the consensus forecasts of 2.5%. The EIU also thinks it is likely that house prices will fall in nominal terms and that consumers will retrench. The analysis of the housing market and its effect on the UK economy yields a remarkable consensus: whether the housing market is stable or falls rapidly the overall immediate economic consequences are not overwhelming - an undesirable movement of up to 1% point in GDP growth, but no recession. Bank of England longer term growth forecasts are favourable, showing GDP growth rising for two years after a dip in 2005, and the central case inflation rate to be about 2% based on market interest rate expectations showing interest rates close to their peak for this cycle. UK economic conditions are favourable. Externally, prospective high oil prices and a very rapid change in the structure of the American currency appear unlikely and even if these conditions are realised they are likely to be of limited damage to the UK. Internally, the prospective fall in house prices, which is likely to be severe in some areas, will at worst lead to reduced growth in GDP. Property Prospects In the year to September 2004 the CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) All Property Yield Index fell 0.8% points to 6.4% as all component sectors of the index fell, notably in shops by 1.1% points to 5.6%. The 10 year Gilts' yield was 4.8% giving a narrower yield gap of 1.6% points compared to 2.6% points last year. The rental index, which had fallen for six consecutive quarters until earlier this year, has now risen 1.1%, the highest annual growth rate since 2002. The five year compound growth rate is only 2.9%, barely above inflation. Since the 1990 market peak the All Property rental index has risen 16.0% but in real terms has fallen by 20.4%. In real terms offices have fallen furthest, 37.8%, with most central London areas half their previous peak except for Docklands where real rental values have been maintained. Retail warehouses rentals have risen by a very remarkable 64.1%. The fall in yield to 6.4% together with a return to rental growth except for offices, has produced excellent total returns. In the twelve months to October 2004 the IPD index showed total returns of 17.4%, retail 20.4%, office 11.9% and industrial 16.6%. These returns compare with 11.6% for equities and 7.0% for gilts. In the last three, five and ten years total returns in property have been higher than the other two categories, the difference from equities being most marked over five years i.e. from 1999 before the Stock Market crash. The difference from gilts has been most marked over the last twelve months as gilt yields are broadly unchanged since September 2003 (4.63% - 4.79% Sep 2004). Over all the above review periods retail returns have been the highest, with the single exception of industrials over ten years (11.6.%), and office returns the lowest. The stock of investment property changes only very slowly, and an increase in demand quickly affects prices. The high returns from property compared to equities, especially following the Stock Exchange crash, have increased demand for investment property. Before the recent rises in Bank Base Rate Knight Frank reported that demand was largely fuelled by debt-driven investors arbitraging between interest rates and yields. From 2001 until early 2004 UK institutional investment in property was almost absent. However, this year institutional investors have returned and UK institutional net investment which was £500bn in late 2003 was £1,500bn in the most recent quarter. Property returns comprise an income return (rent) combined with changes in capital value, the capital value being the product of the yield and the ERV. Rental growth is dependent on but lags economic growth which is forecast at 2% to 3%. Cluttons expect only the retail sector to experience any rental growth, a nominal 2%. CCRE expect 2.4% rental growth overall with the All Retail ERV up 3.9%. Both forecasters expect no further drop in yields in 2005 producing overall returns of 8.0% to 9.5%. Investment Property Forum surveys twenty-four property advisors, fund managers and equity brokers whose average projected total returns are 9.0.% for 2005 and 8.2% for 2006 resulting from 2.1% to 2.6% rental growth and continuing small falls of 0.1% to 0.2% in yields. All Property yields have stayed constant from year to year only once in the last 28 years - at 8% from 1982 to 1984. There was a golden age from the earliest CBRE record in 1973 until Q4 1997 when, apart from a brief period following the UK's expulsion from the ERM in 1992, property yields were below gilt yields. However, with gilts yielding about 4.8% the 'golden age' is unlikely to recur unless rental growth is spectacular and quite contrary to forecasts and seems unlikely in a low inflationary environment with GDP growth already past its peak for this cycle. Indeed, factors which have limited the recovery of real rental growth since the last 'peak' continue to operate and also impinge on yield. Obsolescence and depreciation have become of increasing importance, significantly reducing returns but, with costs hidden or long delayed, are often not priced into the current market, particularly for offices. For instance the ERV of a newly built UK office building falls 20% compared to new prices within five years and reduces growth in ERV in a widely based portfolio by about 1.2% to 1.4% annually. Compared to the 1980s supply has often become less restricted. Planning consents particularly for offices have been eased, increasing supply and in some cases traditional/locational prejudices and preferences have weakened, increasing the appeal of previously shunned areas. Free of localised restrictions, low cost supply outside established areas reduces rents in established areas, as has happened to the City Centre office markets in London and Edinburgh with the development of Docklands and Edinburgh Park respectively. Supplies of retail space have also increased out of town while shopping parades form an alternative to the High Street and provide appropriate layouts and scale often unavailable in the High Street. Such increased supply together with some obsolescence limits High Street rental growth. In spite of the likelihood of restricted rental growth some forecasters expect property yields to drop marginally in 2005 and 2006 even without any substantial fall in interest rates. However yields are likely to rise again shortly thereafter. The current wave of investment is partially resulting from the beneficial yield effect from the waves of previous investment, a momentum effect which tends to reverse over time. There is considerable anecdotal evidence that a larger than usual percentage of investment has taken place both by private individuals and by institutions into properties where conventional analysis would have required higher yields to achieve target returns. The Scottish Office Investment market in the twelve months to August 2004 has performed less well than other Scottish markets and returned 9.5%, as a result of falling yields more than offsetting lower ERVs. Ryden's report indicates that Edinburgh has been the best performing market and Glasgow the worst. Take up in Edinburgh in the six months to September 2004 was 500,447ft2 above the 401,469ft2 of last year but still less than the 600,000ft2 averaged for 4 years from 1997. Supply is down 564,554ft2 to 2,310,197ft2 or about two years uptake at recent rates. City headline asking rents are unchanged at £27 but down 10% from the recent peak and West Edinburgh shows a further weakening to £18 and £19, thus reverting to the previous one third discount to the City Centre. Actual rents after incentives are probably significantly less. The asking rent of £27 is similar to the previous peak but only represents 73% of it in real terms. Prospects for rental growth do not appear favourable, especially for larger Grade A properties. Some traditional occupiers such as Royal Bank of Scotland and Standard Life are more likely to release space than to take it up; the Royal Bank of Scotland are completing their own large HQ at Gogar in West Edinburgh, while Standard Life are in the process of reducing staff. Supply will also be increased by buildings under construction in the City Centre and increasingly by more building in areas peripheral to Edinburgh, but serving a proportion of traditional Edinburgh occupiers, such as Livingston, Fife and North Midlothian. Glasgow rents are also broadly unchanged. However, take-up for the last six months is the lowest in this period since September 1993 and the average twelve months take-up for the last two years is the worst since the trough in the office market in 1993 and not surprisingly, supply is at the highest level since 1993. Unlike Edinburgh the supply in Glasgow comprises a wider range of qualities including refurbished second hand space priced at 20% to 30% discount. In Aberdeen recent uptake of 180,992ft2 has been just above last year's uptake while supply at 1,140,633ft2 is below last year's peak. The recent rise in oil prices and the prospect of future prices of $30 and above will understandably make currently marginal reserves worth extracting and increased economic activity is likely. However, North Sea Oil and Gas output which peaked in 1999 at 4.5m bpd is expected to be 3.7m bpd this year and 2.5m bpd by 2010 indicating long term decline In contrast to the commercial property investment market, particularly the office market, the residential market continues to offer long term attractions. In the residential market supply in new locations is usually restricted, primarily by planning restrictions and the slow administration of the planning system. Government planning policy is ambivalent: on the one hand streamlining and simplification is proposed; but on the other hand third party appeals are proposed and wider consultation is required. Consumer groups are becoming increasingly vocal and better organised, supporting environmental and green policies, nimbys and mobilising specific ad hoc opposition. The planning system is convoluted, often under-staffed and frequently without direction, or with conflicting policies. This all adds to the probability of delay and to the length of any such delay. A fundamental liberalisation of the planning system appears unlikely and without such a change the supply of residential property will continue to be restricted. The long-term requirement for new houses is considerable although variable among areas. In the Edinburgh area, for instance, households are expected to rise by 65,600 in the 15 years to 2015 or by 19.3%. A huge rise in households is expected in the South East of England. In contrast, in a very few areas reduced house numbers are required, usually in declining industrial cities. A large long-term requirement for houses facing a restricted supply results in rising prices, as indeed has been occurring. However, short-term considerations such as high unemployment, rising or high interest rates, lower rents and lower future price expectations reduce shorter term demand, leading to falling prices, as is becoming evident. Dresdner Kleinwort, who are expecting significant price falls, have undertaken an analysis of house price 'overvaluation' based on traditional price/earning ratios. This analysis estimates that low earnings areas in England such as the North East and the South West are over 50% overvalued and high earnings areas such as London and the South East are 40% and 37% overvalued respectively. In contrast Scotland's overvaluation is only 12%, so even if significant overall falls do take place Scotland's downturn should be limited. The housing market continues to offer good long-term prospects, especially in Scotland. Future Progress The Group expects the current year's results to be satisfactory but, as ever, there is a wide range of possible outcomes. Rental income has stabilised while development and trading profits are likely to be similar. Property costs, due to the vacancy at St Margaret's, continue at high levels, and professional fees are being incurred at a higher rate than last year. The full outcome for the current financial year will be dependent upon any net change in valuation. We continue to pursue our claim for over £4m damages against the Scottish Ministers. A proof is set in the Court of Session commencing on 18 January 2005 and the judgment can reasonably be expected next year. Our future interests are concentrated on the acquisition or creation of more development opportunities, realisable within a five-year period, and their subsequent development. We continue to assess and negotiate for such opportunities and we expect to be able to add to this development portfolio during the course of the year. The mid-market price is currently 135p, a discount of 22.4% to the NAV of 173.9p. The Board recommends an increased final dividend of 1.25p, making a total dividend of 2.25p for the year, and we intend to increase the dividend at a rate consistent with profitability and with consideration for other opportunities. No tax is provided for in the current year. The Group currently has tax losses and allowances carried forward of almost £977,000. Conclusion In spite of higher oil prices the UK economy should continue to grow next year at a rate of over 2%, about trend level, but below this year's estimated 3.2%, unless there is a unexpected major shock associated with the US economy or an adverse response to the expected house price falls. In general investment property seems highly priced and rental growth is likely to continue to be limited. The longer-term market conditions for residential property are very attractive, notwithstanding a prospective short-term downturn in price the extent of which should be limited in Scotland. I D Lowe Chairman 21 December 2004 Consolidated profit and loss account for the year ended 30 June 2004 2004 2003 £ £ Income - continuing operations Rents and service charges 614,735 962,587 Trading property sales 1,541,833 360,000 Other trading sales 375,866 367,243 _______ _______ 2,532,434 1,689,830 Operating costs Cost of trading property sales (1,132,890) (160,330) Cost of other sales (363,642) (346,761) Administrative expenses (1,129,258) (669,265) _______ _______ (2,625,790) (1,176,356) _______ _______ Operating profit (93,356) 513,474 Profit on disposal of investment property 584,291 - Profit on sale of other fixed assets - 10,169 Interest receivable 229,731 344,264 Interest payable (286,004) (365,037) _______ _______ Profit on ordinary activities before taxation 434,662 502,870 Taxation - 5,097 _______ _______ Profit for the financial year 434,662 507,967 Dividends (263,434) (241,716) _______ _______ Retained profit for the financial year 171,228 266,251 Earnings per ordinary share 3.78p 4.41p Diluted earnings per ordinary share 3.63p 4.24p Profit for the financial year is retained as follows: In holding company 367,287 221,669 In subsidiaries (196,059) 44,582 _______ _______ 171,228 266,251 Consolidated balance sheet at 30 June 2004 £ £ £ £ Fixed assets Tangible assets: Investment properties 19,301,974 18,607,844 Other assets 4,190 8,575 __________ __________ 19,306,164 18,616,419 Investments 90,898 20 __________ __________ 19,397,062 18,616,439 Current assets Debtors 122,031 306,648 Cash at bank and in hand 6,312,760 5,233,211 _________ _________ 6,434,791 5,539,859 Creditors: amounts falling due within one year (3,726,095) (2,215,551) _________ _________ Net current assets 2,708,696 3,324,308 __________ __________ Total assets less current liabilities 22,105,758 21,940,747 Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year (2,252,500) (2,302,500) __________ __________ Net assets 19,853,258 19,638,247 Capital and reserves Called up share capital 2,282,584 2,302,053 Share premium account 2,530,753 2,530,753 Capital redemption reserve 175,315 155,846 Revaluation reserve 376,221 563,460 Profit and loss account 14,488,385 14,086,135 _________ _________ Shareholders' funds - equity 19,853,258 19,638,247 These financial statements were approved by the Board of Directors on 21 December 2004 and were signed on its behalf by: M J Baynham Director Consolidated cash flow statement for the year ended 30 June 2004 £ £ Net cash inflow from operating activities 71,312 691,545 Returns on investments and servicing of finance (18,323) (62,658) Corporation tax - (769,902) Capital expenditure and financial investment 368,875 (1,387,610) Equity dividends paid (241,636) (230,206) __________ __________ Cash inflow/(outflow) before management of liquid resources and financing 180,228 (1,758,831) Financing 909,321 (1,760,193) __________ __________ Increase /(decrease) in cash in period 1,089,549 (3,519,024) Reconciliation of net cash flow to movement in net funds £ £ Increase /(decrease) in cash in period 1,089,549 (3,519,024) Cash (outflow)/inflow from decrease in debt (1,026,187) 1,760,193 _________ _________ Movement in net funds in the period 63,362 (1,758,831) Net funds at the start of the period 1,753,228 3,512,059 _________ _________ Net funds at the end of the period 1,816,590 1,753,228 Notes to the cash flow statement (a) Reconciliation of operating profit to net cash inflow from operating activities 2004 2003 £ £ Operating (loss)/profit (93,356) 513,474 Profit on disposal of (408,943) (200,000) trading property Depreciation charges 4,385 4,384 Decrease in debtors 184,617 174,500 Increase in creditors 384,609 199,187 _________ _________ Net cash inflow from operating 71,312 691,545 activities _________ _________ Notes to the cash flow statement (ctd) (b) Analysis of cash flows 2004 2004 2003 2003 £ £ £ £ Returns on investment and servicing of finance Interest received 229,731 344,265 Interest paid (248,054) (406,923) _________ _________ (18,323) (62,658) Capital expenditure and financial investment Purchase of tangible (3,081,201) (3,809,029) fixed assets Sale of investment 3,540,954 2,411,250 property Purchase of investments (90,878) Sale of fixed assets - 10,169 _________ _________ 368,875 (1,387,610) _________ __________ Financing Purchase of ordinary - share capital (116,866) Debt due within a year Increase/ (Decrease) in 1,076,187 (998,635) short-term borrowings . Debt due beyond a year (Decrease) in long-term (50,000) (761,558) borrowings _________ _________ 909,321 (1,760,193) (c) Analysis of net funds At beginning of Cash flow Other non-cash At end of year year changes £ £ £ £ Cash at bank and 5,233,211 1,079,549 - 6,312,760 in hand Overdrafts (99,729) 10,000 - (89,729) __________ 1,089,549 Debt due after (2,302,500) - 50,000 (2,252,500) one year Debt due within (1,077,754) (1,026,187) (50,000) (2,153,941) one year __________ __________ (1,026,187) - __________ __________ _________ __________ Total 1,753,228 63,362 - 1,816,590 Notes to the Audited Results for the Year Ended 30 June 2004 1. The above financial information represents an extract taken from the audited accounts for the year to 30 June 2004 and does not constitute the statutory accounts within the meaning of section 240 of the Companies Act 1985 (as amended). The statutory accounts for the year ended 30 June 2004 were reported on by the auditors and received an unqualified report and did not contain a statement under section 237 (2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985 (as amended). The statutory accounts will be delivered to the Registrar of Companies. 2. All activities of the group are ongoing. The board recommends the payment of a 1.25p per share final dividend (2003: 1.1p), which will be payable, subject to shareholder approval, on 25 January 2005 to all shareholders on the register on 31 December 2004. 3. Earnings per ordinary share The calculation of earnings per ordinary share is based on the reported profit of £434,662 (2003: £507,967) and on the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue in the year, as detailed below. The weighted average number of shares has been adjusted for the deemed exercise of share options outstanding. 2004 2003 Weighted average of ordinary shares in issue during year - undiluted 11,496,244 11,510,267 Weighted average of ordinary shares in issue during year - fully diluted 11,966,244 11,980,267 4. The Annual Report and Accounts will be posted to shareholders on or around 23 December 2004 and further copies will be available, free of charge, for a period of one month following posting to shareholders from the Company's head office, 61 North Castle Street, Edinburgh, EH2 3LJ 5. The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at 10 a.m. on 17 January 2005 at 61 North Castle Street, Edinburgh, EH2 3LJ. END This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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