Interim Results

British Land Co PLC 29 November 2001 PART 1 29 November 2001 PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE BRITISH LAND COMPANY PLC INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2001 HIGHLIGHTS * Net Asset Value per share fully diluted increased 1.4% to 785 pence, excluding FRS 19** (March 2001: 774 pence). * Portfolio Valuation up 0.3% (on a like for like basis) to £9.24 billion. * Net Rents up 6.5% to £230.9 million, including share of joint ventures (2000: £216.8 million). * Profits before tax of £80.0 million (2000: £84.5 million which included the £15.3 million one-off Liberty receipt). Profits after tax were £63.3 million (2000: £60.3 million). * Earnings per share are 12.2 pence (2000: 11.6 pence). * Interim Dividend up 5.6% to 3.8 pence per share. * Continued Portfolio Management with profitable sales of £276.6 million, targeted purchases of £555.7 million and development expenditure of £82.9 million. * Major Pre-let of 375,000 sq ft at £54 psf in respect of office space to Accenture at Plantation Place. ** NAV adjusted to exclude the effects of additional deferred tax arising from the adoption of FRS 19 and UITF 28. Commenting on the outlook, John Ritblat, Chairman said: 'In spite of short-term concerns, prospects for the areas of the market where we are primarily invested are encouraging. There is a premium for prime space in the City, and British Land is well placed for the market pick-up expected next year. Consumers have been busy buying, with retail volumes up 5.7% between October 2000 to 2001, and for household goods (largely in out-of-town retail) up 10.4% for the same period. This must feed through over time to rents and values in our retail portfolio.' * Board Appointment - Mr Graham Roberts, FCA, a senior real estate partner at Andersen, will join the Board in January 2002 as Finance Director designate. Mr John Weston Smith will remain an executive director of British Land and its Chief Operating Officer. PORTFOLIO VALUATION £m Total % Change %* Offices City 3,432.4 37.2 +0.3 West End 500.6 5.4 +1.4 Other 187.3 2.0 -1.7 All offices 4,120.3 44.6 +0.4 Retail Shopping centres 1,751.7 19.0 -0.4 Shops 412.9 4.4 -0.3 Retail warehouses 866.6 9.4 +0.9 Supermarkets 1,007.2 10.9 -0.1 All retail 4,038.4 43.7 +0.0 Industrial and Distribution 100.5 1.1 -0.1 Leisure and other 209.2 2.3 -1.2 Residential 130.4 1.4 +3.4 Development 642.1 6.9 +1.7 Total Valuation 9,240.9 100 0.3 *after adjustment for purchases, properties awaiting development, sales and other expenditure. In their Valuation Certificate for the portfolio at 30 September 2001, ATIS Real Weatheralls said: 'The property investment market has seen less activity than in the period to March, particularly since the September 11 atrocity. Values have generally stabilised. We believe the case for fresh investment in property is now justified particularly with finance rates at their current level, forecast to fall further, and the low returns available elsewhere. The British Land portfolio is characterised by long leases offering secure income streams which should benefit from these circumstances and become increasingly valuable with the tendency elsewhere to move towards shorter lease terms.' Total funds under British Land property management, including partners' share of joint ventures, now £11 billion. PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS Value by location £m Total % London: City 3,707.6 40.1 West End 690.6 7.5 Greater London 388.5 4.2 Total London 4,786.7 51.8 South East England 971.8 10.6 Wales & South West England 423.4 4.6 Midlands & East Anglia 668.3 7.2 North of England 1,963.4 21.2 Scotland & Northern Ireland 324.0 3.5 Republic of Ireland 103.3 1.1 9,240.9 100 Current Reversionary Reversionary potential Net Yield % Net Yield % City offices 5.3 6.8 West End offices 5.9 9.0 Shopping centres 5.8 7.1 Supermarkets and Retail warehouses 6.7 7.2 Other 7.3 8.0 Overall portfolio (excluding 6.0 7.2 developments) Reversionary income £105 million. 30 September 31 March Portfolio Statistics 2001 2001 Annualised net rents 517.4m £492.9m of which, share of joint ventures 102.2m £97.0m Weighted average lease length 18.5 years 19 years Current net yield 6.0% 5.9% Reversionary net yield 7.2% 7.3% Rental Income British Land - Group only Gross Rents rose by 5.1% to £200.7 million (2000: £190.9 million) Net Rents up 3.8% to £187.5 million (2000: £180.7 million) British Land - including share of Joint Ventures: Gross Rents rose by 7.9% to £247.6 million (2000: £229.5 million) Net Rents up 6.5% to £230.9 million (2000: £216.8 million) FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Six months to Six months to 30 September 2001 30 September 2000 (restated) Profit and Loss Account Gross rental income £247.6m £229.5m Gross rental income - Group £200.7m £190.9m Net rental income £230.9m £216.8m Net rental income - Group £187.5m £180.7m Profits on property trading £17.3m £13.9m and disposal of fixed assets Other income £7.3m £23.9m Net interest payable £157.4m £154.8m Profit before taxation £80.0m £84.5m Tax charge £16.7m £24.2m Balance Sheet 30 September 2001 31 March 2001 (restated) Total properties* £9,240.9m £8,859.9 Net assets £4,123.0m £4,063.9m Net asset value per 795 pence 784 pence Net asset value per share 769 pence 759 pence (fully diluted) Debt/equity ratio - Group 98% 91% Mortgage ratio - Group 48% 46% The above include the external valuation surplus on development and trading properties * Pre adjustments for UITF 28 Total Return for the six months 1.9% (2000: 5.7%) The Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2001 comply with Financial Reporting Standard 19 (Deferred Tax) and Urgent Issues Task Force Abstract 28 (Operating Lease Incentives) and the comparatives for the six months ended 30 September 2000 and year ended 31 March 2001 have been restated accordingly. All figures include British Land's share of joint ventures unless stated as Group. 30 September 31 March Financing statistics - Group 2001 2001 Net debt £4,037m £3,717m Weighted average debt maturity 16.9 years* 17.8 years Weighted average interest rate 6.63%* 6.91% Undrawn committed bank facilities and cash £1,184m £1,323m % of net debt at fixed/capped interest rates 90% 89% Difference between book and market values of debt, net of tax (FRS 13) £178m £162m * Securitisation of the Meadowhall Shopping Centre has been announced, raising £825 million, with a further tranche of c. £50 million expected during 2002. The applicable weighted average interest rate is 5.51% with an average term of 21 years. This non-recourse asset specific funding increases the Group's weighted average debt maturity to 20.7 years and reduces the weighted average interest rate to 6.62%. The £575 million securitisation of the Sainsbury's supermarkets was completed in June 2001. CONTACTS The British Land Company PLC John Ritblat, Chairman ) 020 7467 2831/2829 John Weston Smith, Finance Director ) 020 7467 2899 Finsbury Limited Edward Orlebar ) 020 7251 3801 Faeth Finnemore ) British Land's Corporate Strategy British Land's opportunistic but risk averse strategy seeks to achieve long- term growth in shareholder value by: * focusing primarily on leading, quality assets in the office, retail and development areas, which provide exceptional long-term investments, * creating a high quality, modern portfolio with growth potential, coupled with covenant quality and a long lease profile, * recycling capital and enhancing returns through acquiring assets which offer the scope to add value through active management, * maximising equity returns through innovative financing and joint ventures. The key to the maximisation of returns is flexibility, both in terms of the business organisation and financing to take advantage of shifts in the property market. STATEMENT BY THE CHAIRMAN, MR JOHN RITBLAT Over the last 6 months the Board's commitment to our long-term strategic goals has resulted in a number of significant achievements in British Land's business, irrespective of uncertainties in the current economic climate. * On the development front, within 6 months of a revised planning consent earlier this year we secured the largest ever letting in the Company's history, a pre-let of 375,000 sq ft to Accenture at Plantation Place. It is significant that the deal was signed after the tragic events in the U.S.A. We have started immediately on a 507,000 sq ft first phase to accommodate this letting, and Accenture has an option to call for the remainder of the space on agreed and indexed terms. Accenture also has first refusal on the second phase, which is currently the subject of a further improved planning application. * The principal acquisitions have been 22 Homebase stores and, through our new joint venture BL Davidson, the property company Asda Property Holdings, with a portfolio of some £480 million which complements and thus extends our holdings in quality offices and out-of-town retail warehousing. We have also bought in the half we did not own of the Peacock Centre in Woking. Total purchases amount to £555.7 million and development expenditure to £82.9 million. * The programme of refining the portfolio continues. Sales total £276.6 million in the half-year, including British Land's share of joint ventures. * Even after these sales, gross rental income, including our share of joint ventures, is up to £247.6 million. * Profits before tax are £80 million. * Net assets per share are up 1.4% to 813p from 802p (undiluted). Balance sheet asset values are underpinned by an independent Discounted Cash Flow valuation which shows an enhanced position on an ongoing basis as compared with the traditional realisation basis. Financial Reporting Standard 19 now requires us to deduct deferred tax from Net Asset Value, and British Land's deferred tax arises from the perceived possibility that on a sale there might be clawback of capital allowances, even though tax law permits us to 'elect' to retain the benefit - and thus prevent clawback. With this deduction - which has no effect on cash flow, tax liabilities or on the value of properties and which will never take effect because of the election procedure - the half-year NAV per share was up 1.4% from 784p to 795p. It must be questioned whether shareholders - or indeed anyone else - is better informed as a result of this accountancy change. * The Interim dividend is 3.8p, up 5.6% from last year's (3.6p). Valuation The half-year valuation shows an upward change from the last year-end, being positive overall with an uplift of 0.3%. We have recently assessed the effectiveness of the valuation processes carried out by our independent professional valuers, and they have emerged well from this review. We tested their performance by comparing their Estimated Rental Values with actual Rent Reviews achieved in respect of over 100 reviews conducted in the half-year. The outcome was that on average we did better than their ERVs, but only by 1.3%, proving their accuracy. There were wider variants on some properties as one would expect in a market. Critics of the valuation process rarely acknowledge the range of variables and judgements that have to be made in respect of any given valuation. Elements include the condition and age of the property; the unexpired lease term and if this is short what might happen at the expiration; the location and comparables, both on rents and capital values. Other issues are the covenant strength of the tenant - is it getting stronger or weaker - and of course construction materials - especially so if the building contains deleterious matter. The price achieved on a sale may differ from the valuation, for instance if the purchaser owns the adjoining site, or if a planning consent has been secured after valuation but pre-sale, having been too speculative to embrace at the valuation date. Pre-letting of a development also lifts value. Our valuation surveyors are not told in advance which of our properties we will be selling in the future and therefore testing capital values. Over the past 5 plus years we have sold over £2.1 billion of property in excess of valuation. In addition over half of the portfolio has been submitted to 'second opinions' as our securitisations have involved other outside valuers. There have been negligible differences between these extra valuations and our regular semi-annual reports. Taking an entirely different approach, we have also conducted an innovative Discounted Cash Flow valuation which provides a check on the conventional process, as shown elsewhere in this Report. This allows investors to compare property income flow more readily with other investment options. Financing During the half-year we completed the securitisation of 35 Sainsbury superstores, raising £575 million against a value of £677 million, a loan-to-value ratio of 85%, at an average rate of 6.8% and an average term of 17 years. Currently we are engaged in raising £875 million in securitised debt on the Meadowhall shopping centre, of which £825 million is to be received immediately, at a rate of 5.51% and an average term of 21 years. This reduces our overall average cost of money to 6.62%, and lifts our overall average debt maturity to 20.7 years. It also increases available cash and bank facilities to £2 billion. Securitisation provides the Company with long-term fixed rate debt at low interest rates, giving stability to the balance sheet and reducing risk. We employ the proceeds to reduce bank indebtedness, freeing up revolving bank lines so that we have ample liquidity for deals, developments and our business. Board Changes We are pleased that Graham Roberts, FCA, has accepted an invitation to join the British Land board as an executive director in January 2002. He brings a varied and wide professional experience, specialising in property interests, which will be an added strength to our management team. He will succeed John Weston Smith as Finance Director on 31 March 2002, the end of our financial year. I am equally glad that John Weston Smith will remain an executive director on the main board. As Chief Operating Officer he is also retaining his existing appointment as Managing Director of The British Land Corporation, the principal management and operating company for the Group. Prospects The strength of the portfolio ensures that there is no pessimism here. We have a structure and a strategy designed to cope comfortably with downs as well as ups, and substantial cash and facilities as a cushion against any fluctuations. As the Company is unlikely to be a forced seller, we are able to plan ahead with equanimity to meet the demands of the market and the expansion of the economy through the cycle. British Land has well located, diversified, predominantly freehold, modern buildings let to strong tenants on long leases, the average length being 18.5 years. The rising cash flow from reversions and developments is enhanced by gearing and by active management to squeeze the best there is of growth when interest rates and inflation are low. Whether or not this is a permanent or temporary economic state, we anticipate that property yields must themselves be influenced by the downward trend in interest rates, giving the prospect of further upward capital movements. I continue to believe more than ever that there are few better investments than well-based Real Estate to match long-term obligations and aspirations. FINANCIAL REVIEW Results Group net rental income is up 3.8% to £187.5 million (2000: £180.7 million). £9.7 million of increased rents were achieved from rent reviews and new lettings. Acquisitions contributed £7.6 million to rental income, and property disposals effected a reduction of £11.3 million. The rise in British Land's share of joint venture operating profits to £42.8 million (2000: £35.1 million) was mainly due to £7.4 million from the new joint ventures BL West and London & Henley Holdings. The profit on investment property disposals of £11 million (2000: £12 million) principally arose in respect of properties disposed of in prior periods. Profit before tax is £80 million compared to £84.5 million; profit before tax for the six months to September 2000 was boosted by the £15.3 million one-off Liberty receipt. Before this receipt and profits on disposal of properties, underlying profits increased by £7.4 million (13.4%). Net interest payable has increased by only 1.7% to £157.4 million despite an increase in net debt of some 13%. Principally, this reflects the benefits of the repurchase of unsecured bonds in April 2001 which have been replaced with less expensive borrowings. Interest cover has been maintained at 1.5 times. The tax charge for the period is £16.7 million, an effective rate of 20.9% (2000: £24.2 million, 28.6%). The effect of adoption of FRS 19 'Deferred Tax' was to increase the tax charge for the current period by £3.1 million and the prior period by £6.8 million. The growth in after-tax profits increased earnings per share by 5.2% from 11.6 pence to 12.2 pence, and an interim dividend of 3.8 pence per share (up 5.6%) is proposed. Balance Sheet Net asset value rose by £59.1 million to £4,123 million in the six months to 30 September 2001. On a per share basis this is an increase of 1.4% to 795 pence. Excluding the effect of the £94.8 million FRS 19 deferred tax provision, net assets per share are 1.4% higher at 813 pence. On a fully diluted basis the rise is to 769 pence and 785 pence respectively. The increase in net assets arises principally from retained profits and valuation surpluses, partially offset by taxation on the sale of 73% of St Stephens Green Shopping Centre, Dublin. The main movements in the Balance Sheet are from property purchases, the establishment of the BL Davidson joint venture and the deferred taxation provision. The debt / equity gearing ratio is 98% whilst the debt / property and investments mortgage ratio is 48%. Accounting Policy Changes The Group has adopted FRS 19 'Deferred Tax' and Urgent Issues Task Force (UITF) Abstract 28 'Operating Lease Incentives' although the latter is immaterial for the Group. FRS 19 requires that deferred tax should now be provided in full on all timing differences that are not permanent. FRS 19 has no effect on actual tax payments. In compliance with FRS 19 full provision has now been made for the potential tax liability arising from the benefit of capital allowances, although no such clawback is expected. Treasury In June the Group securitised the rental income on 35 Sainsburys supermarkets, raising £575 million against a value of £677 million, a loan to value ratio of 85%, with a weighted average interest rate of 6.8% and weighted average maturity of 17 years. The proceeds were used to repay bank borrowings. In November the Group announced the securitisation of the rental income at Meadowhall Shopping Centre which will raise £825 million with a further tranche of £50 million to be marketed in 2002. The weighted average interest rate of this funding is 5.51 % and the average life is 21 years. At 30 September 2001, net debt is £4,036.5 million (March 2001: £3,716.8 million) with a weighted average cost of 6.63%, of which 90% is at fixed or capped rates of interest and has a weighted average debt maturity of 16.9 years. Cash and available committed bank facilities were £1,184 million (March 2001: £1,323 million). Incorporating the Meadowhall securitisation will extend the weighted average maturity of the debt by 3.8 years to 20.7 years while the weighted average interest rate will be 6.62%. The average term of the debt compares favourably with the weighted average lease length of 18.5 years. Cash and available bank facilities will rise to £2 billion. PROPERTY REVIEW Valuation The valuation of all properties in the British Land portfolio and situated in the United Kingdom (but excluding Tesco British Land Property Partnership and Tesco BL Holdings) was undertaken by Chartered Surveyors, ATIS Real Weatheralls (formerly known as Weatherall Green & Smith). An extract from their Certificate appears below. The portfolio, including development properties and British Land's share of joint ventures, was valued at 30 September 2001 at £9.24 billion. On a like for like basis, the portfolio showed an increase of 0.3% for the first six months of the financial year. The small overall uplift is generally derived from the various sectors of the portfolio as follows:- (i) Office investments overall increased in value by 0.4%: City and West End investments increased by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively, while such investments in other areas (being a small part of the portfolio) decreased in value by 1.7%. (ii) The retail warehouse investments increased by 0.9% with shopping centres, supermarkets and high street shops falling between 0.1% and 0.4%. This resulted in no overall change in value for the retail portfolio over the six month period under consideration. (iii) British Land's interests in leisure and industrial/ distribution reduced in value by 1.2% and 0.1% respectively. (iv) The residential investments (including the 50% share in the London & Henley joint venture) total £130 million and showed a 3.4% increase in value for the six months. The current net yield on the portfolio excluding developments is 6.0%, with a reversionary net yield of 7.2%. The total reversionary income is £105 million, excluding developments. Property Asset Management At 30 September the portfolio, including the joint ventures, comprised circa 860 properties and 3,375 leases. During the six months to September 2001, approximately 140 rent reviews were settled and these resulted in increases in rental income of £12.6 million per annum. In that period, sales of some 238 properties were completed and some 120 leases were granted. The portfolio has been positively managed during the period with vacant possession of a number of properties being achieved, enabling them to be re-let profitably. A number of investment properties are being refurbished or extended. In particular, agreement has been reached with J Sainsbury Plc and Tesco plc to fund extensions to 12 stores amounting to 18,500 sq m (200,000 sq ft) of additional floor space. The dimension of the joint venture with Scottish and Newcastle has changed during the six months: 152 properties (which were considered to be ex-growth) were sold back to Scottish and Newcastle and solicitors are instructed for the purchase of a further 24 properties from them. The current total is now 128 public houses totalling approximately 23,500 sq m (253,000 sq ft) of trading area, predominantly located in the South of England. The Broadgate Centre, London EC2 Following the successful settlement at £590 per sq m (£54.80 per sq ft) in respect of 19,000 sq m (205,000 sq ft) in Exchange House where the review date was December 2000, further rent review progress was made in reaching agreement at £635 per sq m (£59.00 per sq ft) for 743 sq m (8,000 sq ft) at 155 Bishopsgate, as at March 2001. In both of these instances the rents achieved were in excess of rental values incorporated in the 31 March 2001 valuations undertaken by ATIS Real Weatheralls. Aggregate passing rent is some £152 million per annum. Valuation £2.912 billion. Planning consent has now been received for the redevelopment of Hamilton House to provide a net internal office area of 13,290 sq m (143,000 sq ft). This compares with 6,227 sq m (67,000 sq ft) in the existing building. It is anticipated that construction will start summer 2002. The enhancement of the external circulation areas at Broadgate has commenced with completion of the first phase due in December 2001, which alone will add 420 sq m (4,500 sq ft) of retail space. Meadowhall Shopping Centre, Sheffield Rents passing have risen as anticipated to £60.7 million per annum following settlement of 18 rent reviews during the six months to September 2001, and are expected to increase further to approximately £67 million per annum when the outstanding rent reviews and lettings have been completed. Valuation £1.28 billion. Some 13 new lettings have been concluded, including top retailers such as Swarovski, Ted Baker and French Connection. The new Allders Home concept has opened in the majority of what was the C. & A. store and has been well received by the Centre's customers. The balance of the C. & A. store has been let to Argos, enabling them to extend their existing store. The customer loyalty card scheme is now live and approximately 28,000 customers have subscribed to date. The installation of the fibre optic ring, including a retailer intranet to enable fast and efficient communication has been completed with about half of the tenants already connected. The remainder will follow after the Christmas trading period. The Meadowhall website has been remodelled and recently won the Business Internet Magazine 'Best Website Design' and 'Best Overall Site'. This is continuing to receive some 35,000 'hits' per day. The Centre Management team has built upon their earlier successes in being awarded the British Safety Council 5 Star Environmental Management Audit. The Peacocks Centre, Woking This property (excluding the leisure centre) is now wholly owned by British Land. The fully enclosed Centre was completed in 1992 on three principal levels of retail trading area around a glazed atrium. The total floor area is 29,700 sq m (320,000 sq ft) with car parking for 2,350 cars. This prime Town Centre scheme is anchored by Allders (12,700 sq m/137,000 sq ft), M & S Food Store, Primark, TK Maxx and Woolworths. There are a further 80 retail units where tenants include Next, Monsoon, Accessorize, River Island and Virgin. The lower trading level has a 400 seat food court with popular offers including Aroma and KFC. The total rent passing is approximately £5.4 million per annum. Development Activity has continued apace since March. At 30 September 2001, the total development programme extends to 849,000 sq m (9.1 million sq ft) with a cost to complete of £1.5 billion and an ERV of £211 million, of which British Land's shares are £1.1 billion and £167 million respectively. Of this programme, some 135,000 sq m (1,450,000 sq ft) in seven principal buildings is currently under construction representing committed costs to British Land of £404 million, with a cost to complete of £245 million, and an ERV of £49 million. We were pleased to announce in September the pre-letting to Accenture at Plantation Place of 32,795 sq m (353,000 sq ft) of offices at £581 per sq m (£54 per sq ft), together with ancillary storage space, and with options over a further 13,935 sq m (150,000 sq ft) exercisable before practical completion. Construction commenced immediately with piling now in progress. New Century Park, Coventry, a 60.7 hectare (150 acre) site predominantly occupied by Marconi, was purchased for future redevelopment. 2 hectares (5 acres) was sold immediately for residential development. A further 8.9 hectares (22 acres) at Delta Park, Enfield was purchased in joint venture with Gazeley Properties, for the development of up to 42,000 sq m (450,000 sq ft) of warehouse and distribution facilities. Some 55,500 sq m (600,000 sq ft) of development was completed, notably: a 10,220 sq m (110,000 sq ft) light industrial building at Redditich (in joint venture with Gazeley Properties Ltd) and 19,975 sq m (215,000 sq ft) of pre-let office and other accommodation at Blythe Valley Park. EXTRACT FROM ATIS REAL WEATHERALLS VALUATION CERTIFICATE, PORTFOLIO VALUATION 30 SEPTEMBER 2001 'City of London Offices There is notably more caution than prevailed at March with letting activity at low levels. Many prospective tenants (we believe there are in excess of ten companies with significant requirements) will probably postpone taking new space on account of the present uncertainties. Some companies are reviewing whether they wish to be in a single building. On a more positive note, whilst some organisations have reduced personnel, they are 'mothballing' space rather than releasing into the market. Thus with the all important supply of floor space remaining tight, the softening of demand should not have any material effect on rental levels. Additionally, banks have been far more careful in speculative lending during this cycle with the result that there is virtually no new overhang of supply. Accordingly we expect rental levels to broadly plateau rather than decline. Rent reviews however may prove more testing, with only limited evidence upon which to rely and certain tenants subletting space at lower levels. All of this means that despite a fair medium term outlook, yields have not moved in, despite the various shifts in base rates and the fact that longer term rates have shifted in about 35 basis points since March. Within the British Land City portfolio the most significant event is probably the preletting of a major part of the Plantation Place scheme to Accenture and thus signalling the earlier commencement of construction. The £54 psf headline rent achieved compares favourably to speculative completions in the vicinity. Discussions are ongoing concerning rent reviews on the Broadgate estate and with potential occupiers for 201 Bishopsgate, the company's other major joint venture City development. West End Offices The occupational market has 'cooled'. Occupiers have indicated to their agents that they are placing relocation decisions on hold, and prime rents have eased. They now rest between £80 and £85 psf. Take up has fallen, albeit from the exceptional levels of the last two years, but the vacancy rate remains at an historically low level of 4.8%. Despite this, investor demand remains positive, particularly, as in all areas, for long, well secured income streams. Retail Warehousing This is one of the few sectors where investors are buying with genuine expectations of strong rental growth over the short to medium term. Although rents may plateau temporarily in some locations, there is some way to go before the many out of town occupiers see rents reach the limits of affordable levels. In Greater London even bulky, DIY users are expecting to see £35 psf as the norm. Similar levels can be forecast throughout the South East/Home Counties, and rents further North have already reached around £30 psf for the better centres and major City locations. Leisure Sentiment toward the sector is understandably muted, as was the case 6 months ago. Itself a relatively risky business area, the anticipated slowdown in consumer expenditure (although still defying all predictions) can only serve to worsen prospects further. With prospects for rental growth patchy, and covenants generally weakening across the sector there are few areas of appeal to the investment market. The exception to this can probably be found in the British Land joint venture Public House portfolio where the strong Scottish and Newcastle covenant is married to long unexpired lease terms, and a variety of longer term alternative uses. This is the type of investment that should benefit from cheaper finance and fundability. Supermarkets The investment market remains strong on the back of generally good leases and covenants and relative scarcity of this form of investment. Prime initial yields provincially are around 6.75% but in London we would expect to see these at around 6.5% with ERVs substantially higher than elsewhere. These are good candidates to benefit from any advantageous yield shifts that may occur on the back of relatively low returns available elsewhere, and the gap between funding costs and property returns. This would be to the benefit of British Land with the extensive representation that the company has in this investment category.' AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW EVALUATION Prepared by ATIS Real Weatheralls This is an alternative view of the Company's portfolio to help shareholders evaluate its worth. It takes each year's cash flow on the basis of rents paid quarterly in advance, discounted at the rate shown in the column on the left of the table. Capital values have been calculated using different rental growth rates to enable the investor to assess the potential of the Company's income stream to produce capital growth in the future. Matrix for Cash Flows over Twenty Years 1. All capital values are stated gross of purchasers' costs as the business is ongoing. 2. For this calculation the combined average rate of purchasers' costs has been taken as 4.95%. This rate has been derived by applying the appropriate cost on a property by property basis. In the case of valuations undertaken by CB Hillier Parker and Jones Lang LaSalle, the flat rate is 5.75%. 3. Exit yields used are set at 7%. 4. British Land's share of joint venture properties is included. Discount Present capital values (£m) at various discount rates rates and growth rates per annum for a period of 20 years 5.00% 12,778 15,880 17,431 18,982 6.00% 11,416 14,080 15,412 16,744 7.00% 10,246 12,541 13,689 14,837 8.00% 9,240 11,223 12,214 13,206 Rental growth rates 0% 2% 3% 4% The value of the portfolio in the Balance Sheet, net of purchasers' costs, is £9.241 billion. The equivalent current gross value of the portfolio is £9.697 billion, which equates to a 7.5% discount rate and a 0% growth rate. Assumptions * Sites for development have been taken at the Capital Value as reported on the British Land Balance Sheet and decapitalised at appropriate rates. * The value and cash flow figures for properties located outside the U.K. have been converted to Sterling (£) using appropriate conversion rates. * No ongoing costs, e.g. refurbishments or other non-recoverables have been allowed for. MORE TO FOLLOW
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