Interim Results

F&C Latin American Inv Trust PLC 6 September 2001 Date: EMBARGOED 07.00AM THURSDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2001 Contact: Simon Cordery, F&C Emerging Markets, 020 7628 8000/Emma Chilvers, Lansons Communications, 020 7294 3606 F&C LATIN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Unaudited Preliminary Statement of Results for the half-year ended 30 June 2001 HIGHLIGHTS * The undiluted net asset value per share was 252.19 cents, a rise of 2.70% over the half-year. This compares with the return of the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index of 4.21%. * The share price has risen from 169.0 cents to 186.0 cents, an increase of 10%. * The discount to the diluted net asset value has fallen from 25.8% to 19.7%. * The Mexican market has been the best performing market over the period, rising 22.4%, despite Wall Street's poor performance and the drag of Argentine sentiment. * Argentina is facing one of the most difficult periods in its economic history. It is unclear how the Argentine authorities will ignite economic growth while adhering to a strict fiscal discipline. SUMMARY OF RESULTS 30 June 2001 31 December % 2000 Change Net assets attributable to equity US$ 187.9m US$ 183.0m +2.70% shareholders Net assets per share - basic 252.19 245.55 cents +2.70% cents Net assets per share - diluted 231.66 227.73 cents +1.73% cents Share price 186.00 cents 169.00 cents +10.06% Warrant price 99.00 cents 95.50 cents +3.66% Extracts from the Chairman's Statement Dear Shareholder, NET ASSET VALUE Your Company's undiluted net asset value per share on 30 June 2001 was 252.19 cents, a rise of 2.70% over the half-year. This compares with the return of the IFCG Latin American US$ Total Return Index of 4.21% for the period. The share price for the same period has risen from 169.0 cents to 186.0 cents, an increase of 10%, outpacing the net asset value performance and thus reflecting a lowering of the discount to the diluted net asset value from 25.8% to 19.7%. The fully invested gearing level of 15% remained unchanged over the period. MARKET REVIEW Argentina Argentina is facing one of the most difficult periods in its economic history. A protracted recession, now in its third year, has made servicing Argentina's US$150 billion mountain of debt difficult. Maintaining a fixed peg currency regime with the Dollar, the Country cannot devalue the currency to ignite growth and reflate the economy. In an effort to reduce the debt burden until the Country returns to growth, Argentina negotiated a US$29 billion debt exchange and re-negotiated its IMF fiscal target. Both US ratings agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, have downgraded Argentine sovereign debt to negative. Investors are switching Peso deposit accounts to Dollar accounts and increasingly shipping these Dollar deposits offshore, which is likely to jeopardise the currency board system. It is unclear how the Argentine authorities will ignite economic growth while adhering to a strict fiscal discipline which, by its nature, is deflationary. The market performance was one of the worst in Latin America, falling by 1.7% over the period. Mexico The Mexican market has been the best performing market over the period, rising 22.4% despite Wall Street's poor performance and the drag of the Argentine crisis on sentiment for Latin America. The economy has rarely been in better shape. A strong Peso has driven inflation to a twenty year low, while the Country has attracted strong Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. Rising real wages underpin robust consumer spending, providing a copper bottom to the economy. The takeover of Banamex, Mexico's largest bank, by Citigroup sends a strong signal to US corporates that Mexico is a safe place in which to invest. The imminent passage of tax reform and the eventual convergence with the US economy reinforce the long-term positive prospects of Mexico. Brazil Brazil has borne the brunt of investors' disillusionment with Argentina. Investors have required a higher return for holding Brazilian bonds, thus pushing bond prices down and interest rate spreads up. The Brazilian Central Bank was forced to raise interest rates to protect the Real as the sharp currency weakness threatened to ignite a burst of inflation. Domestically, Brazil itself is beset with the worst drought in 70 years which curtails electricity generation in the Country's hydro-electric plants, which in turn hampers economic growth. Together these twin events conspire to restrict the flow of investments into the Country, a feature Brazil can ill afford with its current account deficit to finance. The IMF has stepped forward with a US$15 billion package to plug the balance of payments gap due to the slower FDI flows into the Country this year. This IMF action points to a clear ring-fencing and differentiation of Brazilian economic problems from those in Argentina. The Brazilian market fell 13.2% over the period. Chile The global slowdown has brought a flurry of downgrades in GDP forecasts for Chile this year, but the Country should still manage a respectable 4% growth, with the export sector leading the way. Domestically, high unemployment has held back consumption, despite interest rates falling to 3.5%, a level which historically has been highly expansionary. Investment spending should translate into job creation and hence higher consumer confidence which will spur consumption and balance the output between export and domestic sector growth. The liberalisation of the capital account and pension law reforms should spark more investor interest. The market rose 5.2% over the period. Peru Peru's new President, Alejandro Toledo, has wasted no time in setting his economic agenda. His most important decision was to appoint a credible Finance Minister, Pedro Kuczynski. Kuczynski is a well regarded economist with IMF and World Bank experience. His economic agenda to cut taxes and reform tax collection should have the twin attributes of spurring economic growth while being politically acceptable to the loose coalition Toledo has formed around him. The appointment of Kuczynski suggests that Toledo appreciates the need to woo financial markets and reassert fiscal orthodoxy. Given the priority of privatisation and investment, Peru could be on the cusp of a return to economic health like that witnessed during Fujimori's first few years in office. The market rose 13.2% over the period. Colombia The Colombian economy remains sluggish while unemployment has edged up to high double-digit levels. With weak domestic demand, the external sector is the only source of growth, but the repeated bombings of the Cano Limon oil pipeline and depressed coffee prices have sharply reduced exports. In an environment of relatively low inflation, low credit growth and a wavering recovery, monetary easing looks likely. Violence, at alarming levels even at the best of times, has been on the rise recently with a series of bomb explosions in the main cities. FARC guerrilla rhetoric has also been more inflammatory which may signal growing rebel confidence. The FARC could be preparing to move from a predominantly rural campaign of disruption to a more urban one. Despite the grim economic and political news, the market rose 29.6% over the period and the authorities announced an amalgamation of the Country's three stock exchanges. Venezuela The strident rhetoric contained in Chavez's long televised speeches has accelerated capital flight, with the Central Bank witnessing pressure on the Bolivar and a decline in international reserves of US$2.4 billion since the end of December last year. Chavez has told listeners that private property is not 'sacred' and that he is 'keeping his eye on speculators who attack the currency'. The economy is becoming more reliant on buoyant oil revenues, as oil prices remain firm, and as the component of private sector activity shrinks. Industrialists have either cancelled or delayed investments due to political and economic uncertainty, but the Central Government continues to spend from its swollen oil coffers. Venezuela is more prone than ever to a boom-bust economic cycle which would manifest itself if oil prices weakened. The Venezuelan market rose 9.5% over the period. OUTLOOK Typically, the performance of emerging markets has been highly correlated with the rebound in the G7 OECD leading indicators. Within this context, the lowly valued Latin American markets should produce strong returns when this index turns up, indicating a rebound in global growth. The more liquid markets of Mexico and Brazil should dominate investor interest. However, events in Argentina will likely determine sentiment towards Latin America in the months ahead, overshadowing any positive developments in the global growth outlook or improvement in investors' appetite for risk. Brazil is the Country to benefit most from a resolution of the Argentine debt trap dilemma. Correspondingly, Brazil stands to be the most affected as the Argentine malaise lingers, which could impact Brazil's ability to attract FDI or hamper its access to the international debt markets. Mexico, on the other hand, is relatively immune to any Argentine-related sentiment, and should continue to fare well, particularly when the US economy recovers. The risk to the Mexican scenario would be if the tax reform initiative failed or if there were a plunge in the oil price, which could lead to a sharp weakness in the Peso. The Andean economies of Venezuela and Colombia suffer from a negative mix of economic and political dynamics which show little sign of resolution. The Chilean economy will remain responsive to copper prices, while the Peruvian market's prospects would be enhanced by the renewal of private sector investment which could herald a rebound in GDP growth. P C D Burnell September 2001 Statement of Total Return (incorporating the Revenue Account*) 6 months to 30 June 2001 6 months to 30 June 2000 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s US$'000s Gains/(losses) - 3,453 3,453 - (6,991) (6,991) on Investments Exchange (70) (149) (219) (35) 73 38 (losses)/gains Income 5,214 - 5,214 2,564 - 2,564 Management fee (1,596) - (1,596) (1,807) - (1,807) Other expenses (339) (21) (360) (461) (31) (492) Net return 3,209 3,283 6,492 261 (6,949) (6,688) before finance costs and taxation Interest (935) - (935) (792) - (792) payable and similar charges Return on 2,274 3,283 5,557 (531) (6,949) (7,480) ordinary activities before taxation Taxation on (481) (129) (610) (313) 100 (213) ordinary activities Return on 1,793 3,154 4,947 (844) (6,849) (7,693) ordinary activities after taxation Dividend on - - - - - - ordinary shares Amount 1,793 3,154 4,947 (844) (6,849) (7,693) transferred to/(from) reserves Return per 2.40 4.23 6.63 (1.16) (9.43) (10.59) ordinary share (basic) - cents Return per 2.21 3.88 6.09 + + + ordinary share (diluted) - cents * The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company. + There is no dilution. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. Balance Sheet 30 June 31 December 2001 2000 US$'000s US$'000s Fixed assets Investments 211,987 210,250 Current assets Debtors 1,652 1,340 Taxation recoverable 109 182 Short-term deposits 1,600 - Cash at bank 2,866 1,227 6,227 2,749 Current liabilities Creditors: amounts falling due within one year US Dollar bank loans (28,000) (28,000) Other (899) (780) (28,899) (28,780) Net current liabilities (22,672) (26,031) Total assets less current liabilities 189,315 184,219 Creditors: amounts falling due after more than one year Provision for liabilities and charges (1,374) (1,225) Net assets 187,941 182,994 Capital and Reserves Called up share capital: including non-equity share capital 7,475 7,475 Share premium 61,544 61,544 Capital redemption reserve 238 238 Warrant reserve 4,797 4,797 Capital reserves 116,232 113,078 Revenue reserve (2,345) (4,138) Total shareholders' funds 187,941 182,994 Equity interests 187,917 182,970 Non-equity interests 24 24 Total shareholders' funds 187,941 182,994 Net asset value per ordinary share Basic - cents 252.19 245.55 Diluted - cents 231.66 227.73 The geographical distribution of investments at 30 June 2001 was: Mexico - 50.6%; Brazil - 38.0%; Chile - 7.3%; Argentina - 1.7%; Venezuela - 1.1%; Peru - 0.8%; Colombia - 0.5%. Cash Flow Statement 6 months 6 months to to 30 June 30 June 2001 2000 US$'000s US$'000s Net cash inflow/(outflow) from operating activities 3,446 (493) Interest paid (808) (804) Taxation paid (388) (51) Net cash inflow/(outflow) from purchases and sales of 1,138 (2,930) investments Net cash inflow/(outflow) before use of liquid resources 3,388 (4,278) and financing (Increase)/decrease in short-term deposits (1,600) 2,986 Net cash inflow from financing - 2,000 Increase in cash 1,788 708 Notes No dividend will be paid on the ordinary shares. The interim financial statements have been prepared on the basis of the accounting policies set out in the Company's financial statements at 31 December 2000. The Interim Report will be posted to shareholders on or around 19 September 2001. Copies may be obtained during normal business hours from the Company's Registered Office, Exchange House, Primrose Street, London EC2A 2NY. By order of the Board F&C Emerging Markets Limited, Secretary 5 September 2001
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