Latest Red Flag Alert Report for Q1 15

RNS Number : 6350K

Begbies Traynor Group PLC

20 April 2015

 



20^th April, 2015

ELECTION UNCERTAINTY STALLS BUSINESS GROWTH AS INVESTMENT DRIES UP

Financial distress levels plateau as UK businesses hold back investment until after election

Businesses across the UK have battened down the hatches since the start of the year, holding back investment for growth and initiating recruitment and pay freezes as they await the outcome of May's General Election, resulting in a state of stagnation across all areas of the economy, warns business recovery specialists Begbies Traynor.

According to Begbies Traynor's Red Flag Alert research for Q1 2015, which monitors the financial health of UK companies, levels of 'Significant' financial distress fell just 1% over the past three months to 227,993 businesses (Q4 2014: 240,685), while levels of more severe 'Critical' distress increased slightly by 4% to 2,461 failing companies (Q4 2014: 2,362); the first increase in this category since Q2 2014. 

London was the only region to experience any real improvement in financial distress levels over the period, with 'Significant' distress falling 4% in the quarter to 36,788 businesses (Q4 2014: 38,141), compared to a flat picture across the rest of the country.

Julie Palmer, Partner at Begbies Traynor, said:

"Concerns over the outcome of the most uncertain election in a generation have led to a state of stagnation across all sectors of the economy, as swathes of UK businesses guarded against the worst case scenario by postponing their growth plans until after the results have been announced.

"With economic forecasters predicting that elevated political uncertainty would result in subdued consumer confidence, sharp swings in the value of the pound and rising volatility in the equity markets, many business leaders took the decision at the start of the year to cut back on much needed investment, new hires and pay increases to provide a buffer in the event that trading levels subsided."

Ric Traynor, Executive Chairman of Begbies Traynor Group, concluded:

"In reality the election has had a minimal impact on trading volumes so far, suggesting that many businesses may have missed out on significant growth opportunities over the first quarter by being overly cautious. But as the election draws nearer, levels of political uncertainty are finally catching up with expectations and it is now too late in the day for businesses to revert back to growth mode.  

"With little separating the two main parties in the polls, the likelihood of an inconclusive result on 7 May is higher than ever. If so, this could result in the formation of a new coalition, the drafting of an emergency Budget and potentially an additional month of uncertainty, therefore restricting new investment until June or beyond and putting the economy and UK businesses at risk of slower growth."

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Notes to editors:

About Begbies Traynor Group

Begbies Traynor Group plc is a specialist professional services consultancy providing independent professional advice and solutions to businesses, financial institutions, the accountancy and legal professions and individuals in the areas of recovery, corporate finance, investigations and risk management.  It is listed on AIM (Ticker: BEG).  Further information can be found at: www.begbies-traynorgroup.com.

About Red Flag Alert

Red Flag Alert measures corporate distress signals through a comprehensive and complex methodology, drawing on factual legal and financial data from a wide range of relevant sources for companies that have been trading for over a year.

The release refers to the numbers of companies experiencing 'Critical' problems which are those with CCJs totalling over £5,000 within a three month period or winding-up petitions against them or which have entered Corporate Voluntary Arrangements.

The release also refers to the numbers of companies experiencing 'Significant' problems, which are those with minor CCJs (of less than £5k) filed against them or which have been identified by Red Flag's proprietary credit risk scoring system which screens companies for a sustained or marked deterioration in key financial ratios and indicators including those measuring working capital, contingent liabilities, retained profits and net worth. 

Red Flag Alert is commercially available to all businesses, on an annual subscription basis, to help them better understand risk and exposure and help prepare them for the future.  Further information about Red Flag Alert can be found at: www.redflagalert.com

 

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