Final Results

Aurora Investment Trust plc PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF RESULTS For the year ended 28 February 2007 OBJECTIVE Capital appreciation through investments listed mainly on the London Stock Exchange POLICY To invest primarily in equities but with some exposure also to Fixed Interest. In general the portfolio will be weighted towards the larger rather than smaller capitalised stocks. A distinctive feature is an emphasis on investments in companies with exposure to economies growing at a faster rate than the UK. BENCHMARKS Treasury 7.25% Stock 2007 The FTSE All-Share Index FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Year ended 28 Since launch February 2007 (13/3/1997) Share Price (total return)^ +4.7% +150.0% Net Asset Value (NAV)^^ +0.8% +152.5%* Treasury 7.25% stock 2007 (total +3.5% +19.6% return)^ FTSE All-Share Index +8.2% +48.3% ^dividends/interest not reinvested ^^ before final dividend *by reference to a starting value of 97.78p (net of launch expenses) CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT The Year's Returns: NAV: +0.8% to 246.9p; In keeping with our Manager, James Barstow's theme in his Review, I have to report that the last year, the Chinese Year of the Dog, was not one of our greatest. True - we produced a positive return for Shareholders - a rise of 1.9p or 0.8% in the net asset value to 246.9p per ordinary share and, subject to your approval at the Annual General Meeting, will have paid a dividend of 3.1p per share. But we could, even should, have done rather better. Our Benchmark, the FTSE All-share Index, rose 8.2% and our Association of Investment Companies ("AIC") peer group, UK Growth, outperformed us. Producing a positive return is our stated objective but we also aim to earn rather better returns than the stock market and than our competitors. Last year we did not achieve those better returns but, as I will comment upon later, we have achieved both good absolute and relative returns on a long-term basis (another part of our objective). The underlying cause of our disappointments continues to be the investments we have in certain small companies each of whose prospects depend on an event or events materialising which would in turn result in a much higher valuation for the company. The investments concerned are the holdings in BTG Emblaze Systems, Global Coal Management, Medical Marketing and Orca Interactive. Each has its own story and James covers them in his Review but so far, in share price terms at least, the trees have not yet born fruit. It is not surprising in the circumstances that such jam tomorrow investments have proved unrewarding because the fruition has taken much longer to come about - always assuming that it does - and investors generally tend not to be that patient. Two others of these types of investment in the portfolio, Gresham Computing and Monterrico Metals did produce positive returns for the year. However taken as a whole the seven investments cost the net asset value 18.0p and were very largely responsible for our disappointing returns. As you will read in James's Review, he remains optimistic that the seven investments, taken as a whole, will produce good returns; James is unusual as an investor in that he is very patient and we hope, indeed believe, that in time it will be rewarded. It is a pity that these investments are taking so long to bear fruit because other parts of the portfolio did much, much better. James is, as Shareholders know, an investor who constructs his portfolio from his - and the Board's - view of the investment world, identifying themes which should prosper (and those that should not) and then selecting the appropriate stocks accordingly. Two of his most successful themes over the last few years have been house building (15.5% of total assets) and Ireland (22.6%); during the last year they continued to contribute to the returns of the portfolio handsomely. With holdings in McCarthy & Stone, Abbey, Barratt Developments and Persimmon (+9.4p per share) and Gartmore Irish, Anglo Irish and Irish life & Premium (+10.9p per share), the two themes added 20.3p per share to the net asset value. Without the drag of the seven concept stocks the net asset value would have earned a higher return than the Benchmark. The top five contributors and the top five detractors to the returns of the portfolio were as follows: +----------------------------------------------------------------+ | | Increase in value | Contribution to NAV | | Top 5 Contributors | | | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 1. McCarthy & Stone | £1,195,000 | 7.9p | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 2. Gartmore Irish | £986,000 | 6.5p | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 3. Anglo Irish Bank | £585,000 | 3.9p | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 4. Gresham Computing | £330,000 | 2.2p | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 5. AWG Ords | £301,000 | 2.0p | |----------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS | £3,397,000 | 22.5p | +----------------------------------------------------------------+ . +-------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | Decrease in value | Detraction from NAV | | Top 5 Detractors | | | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 1. Global Coal | £1,107,000 | 7.3p | | Management | | | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 2. BTG | £1,035,000 | 6.9p | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 3. Drax Group | £722,000 | 4.8p | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 4. Orca Interactive | £496,000 | 3.3p | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | 5. Emblaze Systems | £256,000 | 1.7p | |-------------------------+-------------------+---------------------| | TOP 5 DETRACTORS | £3,616,000 | 24.0p | +-------------------------------------------------------------------+ Long Term NAV 5 Years: + 74.6% to Benchmark: + 29.6% Returns: 246.9p; Since launch: + 152.5% to 246.9p; Benchmark: + 48.3% Our stated objective for Shareholders is to achieve capital growth over the long-term. As spelt out in the Business Review, your Board regards five years as the appropriate time over which to judge the long-term returns of the Company. It is important in this particular year because Shareholders are going to be asked to consider the future of the Company and vote on whether it should continue in business. As elaborated upon later, the Board believes that it should do so. In coming to that conclusion it has paid particular attention to the five year returns that Shareholders have received and to a lesser extent to the returns since the Company was launched. As the numbers above and below illustrate and notwithstanding the disappointing returns of the last two years, the longer-term returns have been good. We believe that amongst the reasons for this good long-term performance are the selection of the right investment strategy and thence the right themes for stock selection and James's considerable commitment to the Company (not only through his share ownership and diligence but also through his heart and soul!). The Board (the independent members thereof) has determined that not only is it in Shareholders' interests that the Company should continue in business as an investment trust but also that, having taken into consideration various aspects of the job, its resources, its experience and the returns earned, Mars Asset Management should continue as its manager. Shareholders' Total Returns: Over one year: + 10.1 p + 4.7% or Over five years: +117.4p + 97.8% or Since launch: +150.0p or + 150.0% Although producing good net asset value returns is key to producing good Shareholders' returns, it is the share price change and the dividend payments which determine the return that Shareholders actually earn from their investment in the Company. And of course the return from the net asset value and the change in the discount determine the return from the share price. The table below shows - over the three time periods - those returns. Although we monitor the discount closely and regularly, we cannot control or manage it. The best way of attaining and keeping a low discount or even a premium is to produce good net asset value returns, which over the longer-term we have but over the shorter-term we haven't. With good returns comes demand for the Company's shares. It is also important that the Board generally and that James particularly keeps in good contact with Shareholders and with the market place; James is most diligent in that respect. However there will be times when blocks of shares come onto the market and when there are no immediate buyers; we have taken powers in the past - and will be seeking to renew those powers at the AGM - to buy in our own shares. We have been reluctant to do so to date for fear of shrinking the market value of the Company and thereby reducing the liquidity of its shares. However in early May of the current year we did buy in 250,000 and are prepared to buy in more if we judge that by so doing it will help minimise the discount. +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ |Analysis of| One year | Five years | Since Launch | |shareholders' return | | | | |------------------------+------------+----------------+----------------| |Increase in NAV p sh |+1.9p | | +105.5p | |+149.1p | | |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| |Change in discount | +5.1p| | -3.0p| | -26.6p| | |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| |Increase in share price |+7.0p |+3.2%| +102.5p |+85.4%|+122.5p |+122.5%| |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| |Dividends |+3.1p | | +14.7p | | +27.5p| | |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| | | | | | | | | |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| |Total Shareholders'|+10.1p|+4.7%| +117.4p |+97.8%|+150.0p |+150.0%| |Return* | | | | | | | |------------------------+------+-----+---------+------+--------+-------| | | | | | | | | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ *NB dividends not reinvested The Dividend: The net income available for paying the dividend, as reported in the Consolidated Income Statement, amounted to £225,000, rather less than the cost of paying last years dividend. However the reason for it is largely accounted for by timing difference in the payment of dividends from our underlying investee companies. Having considered the prospects for the income account for the coming year and having regard to the funds available in the Revenue Reserve, the Board is recommending a dividend of 3.10p per share, an increase of 5.1%. It is the intention of the Board to try to keep the dividend rising at a rate at least equal to that of inflation, although obviously it will not be possible on all occasions. In respect of this last year, the 5.1% increase exceeds the rate of inflation as published by the Government, albeit it is a number that does not seem to relate to most people's experience of their own cost of living. Annual General Meeting: at 12 pm on 28 June, 2007 at 145-157 St John St., London, EC1 There are two special resolutions for Shareholders' consideration at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting - special in the sense that they do not normally occur - which I would like to draw to Shareholders' attention. Resolution Number 9: To Wind Up The Company: Recommendation: Vote Against The procedure for the tenth anniversary continuation vote, which was laid down at the time of the launch ten years ago, was that a resolution would be put to Shareholders to wind up the Company. However, if the Board of Directors believed that it would be in Shareholders'' best interests that the Company should continue in business, then it would recommend shareholders to vote against it. Clearly it is an important matter for the Shareholders and so we have given it full consideration. In doing so we have taken into account three important issues: 1. Do we think that the investment environment over the next five years is such that Shareholders are likely to make money? Yes, we do. Both James's and my statements attest to a long-term bullishness for shares, although we recognise there will be ups and downs. 2. Do we think that Mars Asset Management is capable of exploiting the opportunities in the stock market for the benefit of Shareholders? Yes, we do. Notwithstanding the difficulties of the past year, we believe that James has the right strategy, that he has invested in good themes, which will prove rewarding during the next five years and that - taken as a whole - the seven concept stocks will make a good contribution to Shareholders' returns. 3. Will James be around and as committed for the next five (and more) years? Yes, he assures us he will. As mentioned earlier he is a committed individual; he owns 675,000 shares in the Company and always buys more when appropriate opportunities occur; along with his fishing, Aurora is one of the loves of his life. We already get the benefit of his talent, experience and commitment and we will get the benefit of continuity, an important aspect of good long-term returns. As a consequence we believe that over the next five years Aurora's shares should prove to be an excellent investment for Shareholders and we recommend that you vote AGAINST Resolution Number 9. Resolution Number 10: To increase the aggregate Remuneration Payable to the Directors: Recommendation: Vote For The Board has been giving active consideration to the appointment of new directors but in order to pay fees to them, it needs to increase the aggregate amount payable to the Directors collectively. Furthermore the current fee level of £13,000 per annum per director is rather less than the going rate, which has risen in recent times due to the considerable increase in red tape, duties and liabilities that directors take on. The Board believes that £150,000 in aggregate will be enough to pay for a larger board and higher fee rates. We therefore recommend that you vote FOR this resolution. I do urge as many shareholders as possible to join us for the Annual General Meeting. It will be held at 12 pm at Cavendish Administration's offices at 145-157 St John Street, London (Farringdon tube station). It is the occasion when shareholders can meet all of the directors and ask questions or make comments or suggestions which we would welcome and which we feel that all shareholders should have the benefit of hearing. Please come and join us. Current Outlook and Prospects: It seems that the current outlook and prospects - as I write this at least - are much the same as they were a year ago. The global economy has continued to grow, driven as it has been by the American consumer and the Chinese producer. Almost all other major economies have also contributed to the global growth, albeit to a lesser extent. The prospects for the coming year are much the same, although the American consumer may contribute rather less but the European economies rather more. The effects of China's manufacturing and India's service industries on global inflation have meant that it has remained reasonably subdued (although some of the assumptions and thence statistics on inflation are pretty questionable); commodity prices generally and that of oil in particular are at similar levels as those of a year ago so that they should not be a force for much higher inflation in the next 12 months; and finally in most of the mature economies demographics has a disinflationary, even deflationary, influence on prices. Notwithstanding these disinflatinary forces, central banks have become more concerned about the prospects for inflation - particularly for the inflation of asset prices - and as a consequence interest rates generally are rising. The prospects for the UK's economy are likewise much the same as they were a year ago. While the world's economy is driven by those of the USA and China, the British economy is driven by the prosperity and prospects for the City. Despite dire predictions from the Eurofiles, particularly the Financial Times, that the City would be sidelined because we did not sign up to the Euro, it looks as though it is emerging as the financial centre of choice in the world. Aided by mindless, over zealous and legalistic regulation in the United States, by being fortuitously located in the best time zone, by sensible regulation and taxation in the UK and finally and most importantly by having a large pool of talented and experienced people, the City has become the key driver of the UK economy. Furthermore, and despite some of the destructive policies of our Chancellor of the Exchequer (particularly in the area of the country's pensions) and despite the prospects of the break up of the United Kingdom (which must surely be of great economic benefit to England and the City), the UK economy continues to motor on. Our investment remit allows us to invest in UK quoted companies, ranging from the largest, BP, to the smallest AIM company. Most of the capitalisation of the British stock market is not dependent upon the UK economy - so that the prospects of the global economy are just as important to us as those of the UK. The strength of the UK economy has a proportionately greater bearing on the fortunes of smaller companies. Given that both look set fair, then so do the prospects for the UK stock market. However, we should bear in mind that this bull market is now pretty mature, being in its fifth year. Typical of the final phase of a bull market is a lot of merger and acquisition activity and indeed, as best my memory affords me, I do not remember it on such a scale since the early 1970's. It seems to be the case that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates and that too is a reason for caution. However, trying to predict markets is a mug's game and not one that should dominate our - or any other investors' - investment strategy. Rather it should be determined by a critical analysis and understanding of what's going on in the investment world and choosing the right areas (themes) and stocks to invest in. I think we have learnt the lesson of investing a little too much in promising but rather esoteric stocks and that by following our themes in a simpler, more straightforward way, we should be able to make money for shareholders and make more money than the market or our competitors. Alex Hammond-Chambers Chairman 25 May 2007 MANAGER'S REVIEW AND OUTLOOK The Chinese called it the year of the dog. In the opinion of the manager this was a fitting description for the last year's performance of this Company's portfolio. Moreover just as the year was ending the 'dog' bit viciously - a substantial part of the year's gains evaporated in the last two and a half trading days of the year as a consequence of the sharp correction which took place in the Chinese stock-market. It was indeed a most frustrating, perplexing and difficult year for investing in growth stocks. Whereas from the outset the manager was proved correct in being full of optimism about the prospects for both the UK economy and particularly the stock-market, this optimism did not translate successfully into the portfolio. The first half witnessed, as previously reported, a poor relative performance, which was only partly recovered during the latter part of the year. In brief, the main features which militated against the manager's strategy were the combination of bad sentiment towards lower yielding, and especially smaller, stocks by investors who adopted an unusually, ( in view of the strong rate of growth in the UK economy), defensive rather than confident stance. Furthermore, the unprecedented high level of corporate activity by private equity funds towards mid-cap companies with dull prospects but steady cash flow had not been foreseen by the manager - nor indeed by many other commentators. Although all the current investment themes introduced into the portfolio remain apposite and relevant, their effect was overwhelmed by the tidal wave of cash, which has swamped certain sectors of the stock-market in the last year. Overall, it was an exceptional year, during which investments in several failed management teams were more richly rewarded than those in budding successful entrepreneurs - the area which the manager considers to be the Company's main remit. Today, as a consequence of this high degree of corporate activity, or indeed the rumour/hope of it, in the manager's opinion, many companies with current cash flows have never been so highly rated during the past quarter of a century at a time when their prospects are unexciting - the UK tobacco sector being the extreme example. By contrast, those companies with the potential of future growth and cash flows, have rarely been so relatively undervalued - providing opportunities in abundance for the brave and patient stock selector. Despite having suffered from a period of under-performance I firmly believe that my patience will be well rewarded; successful investment is a long term game. The manager remains confident that circumstances must change for the benefit of the portfolio. Companies exposed to the seriously over-indebted UK consumer sector, a feature conspicuously absent from the portfolio, will be adversely affected by any further rises in UK interest rates. By contrast, the strong representation of companies which are exposed to the rapid growth in developing nations will thrive and prosper. It is a remarkable yet true fact, of which the US centric investor is blissfully unaware, that the global economy, as measured in purchasing power parity terms, continues to expand at almost the fastest rate in history, thus in all probability providing a favourable background for this style of investment. It was a mixed blessing when McCarthy & Stone, a long standing favourite and representative of two themes, namely the relative under-supply of new housing and the ageing of the population, was taken over during the year. Although the exit price provided a useful uplift to the portfolio, it was sad that the management was unable to obtain a much higher price than they did for a company with such excellent future growth prospects and one which derived such an exceptionally high return on capital employed. Approximately one third of the proceeds from this disposal were later redeployed in Barratt Developments, which has since successfully acquired Wilson Bowden. This latter deal, which will soon propel Barratts into the FTSE 100 index, to join Persimmon, not to mention possibly also Taylor Woodrow/ Wimpey, is likely to help to ensure a continuation of the re-rating of the rapidly consolidating house-building sector. A new addition to residential exposure was in Pactolus Hungarian Property plc, a company specialising in refurbishing apartments in the Mayfair/Belgravia districts of Budapest before letting them at high rents to first class corporate tenants. This country is well placed to benefit from the renaissance of Eastern Europe, from the gradual harmonisation of wages up towards Western European levels. Hungary also has the prospect, within a few years, of entry into the Euro, which will then enable mortgage interest rates to halve and thereby produce a consequent strong uplift in capital values. A small disposal was made from the large holding in Persimmon. Regrettably this holding did not perform in the same dazzling manner as occurred in the previous year whilst it integrated its acquisition last year of Westbury. Meanwhile, Abbey made steady progress, benefiting from strong conditions in both the UK and Ireland. The longstanding exposure to the rapidly growing Irish economy, through the holdings in Anglo Irish Bank and Gartmore Irish Growth Trust, produced solid gains once more. On account of the relative size of these holdings, vis-a-vis the rest of the portfolio, further part disposals were made, despite their excellent prospects; in turn an addition was made doubling the size of the holding in Irish Life - one of the few large companies which remain a pure play on the domestic economy. Last year, Irish GDP expanded by no less than 6%, on account of the many dynamic features of that economy highlighted in previous reports, yet the prospects for the next two years are no less rosy. Although the housing market is set to slow down from its recent exceptional level, any shortfall is likely to be made good by a combination of the effect of further maturity of SSIAs (government enhanced savings schemes), the boost to confidence resulting from the rapid growth in the N. Irish economy, a tourist boom, the notable strengthening of the European economy led by Germany, as well as by the size of investments announced in the new National Plan. Under that Plan the government, over the next six years, aims to invest a massive ¤26 bn. p.a. to de-bottleneck areas of congestion in order to improve productivity. What a miraculous transformation has taken place in that economy since 1987, when unemployment was some 14% and the debt to GDP ratio was no less than 107%. Today the statistics are a mere 4%, despite the rapid inward migration from Eastern Europe, and 25% respectively. It is a great pity that the Olympic games were not awarded to Dublin rather than London - they would have no problem in footing the rapidly mounting bill. China of course, as is well known, is the economy which is growing fastest of all. The latest official statistic has confirmed a growth rate in excess of 11% for the whole economy and no less than 18% for industrial production; meanwhile India is forecast to grow at a more sedate pace of 8% for the next few years. By contrast, the mighty Euro area might possibly achieve 2% if given a following wind! Exposure to such rapid economic growth has from the outset been a favourite investment theme, but, as mentioned earlier, to the great consternation of the manager, surprisingly was not a fruitful area for this portfolio last year. It is a sad reflection on the activities of stock-market professionals that really boring and staid companies such as AWG (water) and SSE (electricity) with few virtues, apart from their cash flow, should have produced much higher returns than exciting growth companies such as Standard Chartered Bank (which has arguably the best franchise in SE Asia and the oil rich countries of the Middle East), Rolls Royce (a new holding on account of its burgeoning order book, particularly from Asia) not to mention the entire mining sector whose profits rocketed once more last year. Oh well, as the saying goes, every dog must have its day. As I wrote last year, I firmly believe that the mining sector is still near the start of the fourth super-cycle in history, one which may endure for two decades. During the last twelve months this sector made no overall headway, but, in my opinion, had merely paused for breath. Since the start of the new financial year the sector has broken into new high ground and now looks poised to make excellent headway. The prices of many metals are currently hitting new highs as the growth in demand from the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) far exceeds the growth in new supply, leaving perhaps as little as two days consumption in stock, e.g. copper. Most of the bears on the sector will be surprised to learn that, whereas the US housing industry accounts for 3% of global copper demand, China will consume no less than 30% this year. Nor will that percentage stay constant as rapid investment programmes are taking place in the domestic economy in terms of telecommunications and electrification, not to mention air conditioning and computers amongst others. Indeed, I read that over the next five years China intends to spend more on its metros and railways than the whole of the rest of the world has done over the last twenty years. Metal prices in particular are likely to continue to rise yet further because there are so few new mines ready to commence production. Moreover every mining company is complaining about the shortages of skilled personnel and equipment; it can currently take up to four years to obtain a new drag line and more than a year to receive a new set of tyres for a large dumper truck. Indeed one mining company was so desperate to preserve tyre life at a time of such an acute shortage that it has employed women drivers to achieve this. The eight holdings in the mining sector provide the portfolio with great diversity and a current treble weighting, so great is my conviction that the mining sector will soon enjoy a re-rating from its current derisory level in addition to rapidly rising earnings. Whereas the investments in the large companies such as Rio Tinto, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton and Xstrata maintained their value during the year, two in smaller companies proved expensive. Monterrico Metals plc, a huge copper deposit in Peru, was successfully part-acquired by a Chinese consortium for a fraction of its true value because the management failed to raise new money in time to prolong the bidding process. Global Coal Management (formerly Asia Energy) suffered from failure to receive permission to mine its massive opencast coal deposit in Bangladesh from the previous administration. Fortunately the army has assumed control of the country since January and is taking key decisions to stimulate the economy, as well as gaoling many of the former corrupt politicians. (Little wonder that Brussels is currently taking few steps to create an army!) Accordingly, the management of this company is now raising its hopes that permission will soon be forthcoming. As mentioned at the start of this report, several of the smaller holdings performed badly. BTG for example gave back most of its large gains achieved in the previous year because investors have fretted that the company has decided to resubmit to the FDA's phase 2 trials for Varisolve (revolutionary treatment for varicose veins) without a major pharmaceutical company as partner. The company's diversified portfolio of patents, particularly in respect of multiple sclerosis, is however considerably more valuable than the current valuation attributed to the whole group, even if Varisolve had to be written off completely when the trial results are published later this year. The management remain confident that this will not be the case. The holding in Medical Marketing has diminished in value owing to lack of news from the three separate research platforms which the company is helping to finance. News will, however, be forthcoming in mid May from the trials into using DNA vaccines for treating cancer patients. Hopes are rising, as manifested in the share price, that a significant deal will be contracted shortly thereafter. Both Orca and Emblaze encountered major problems which materially affected their share prices, although fortunately not in relation to their technological know-how which remains at the cutting edge. The former won many contracts from the smaller telephone companies (tier 3) to install their 'video on demand' systems but suffered the tragedy of having their main business partner, Lucent, merge with their main rival, Alcatel. Meanwhile Emblaze has encountered an industry wide VAT problem which has caused severe outflows of cash until the dispute is resolved. Gresham Computing did rise in value during the year, yet progress in signing up international banks as customers for its Real Time Nostro accounting system would appear to have been slower than many investors would wish. It is, however, making inexorable progress. The company has recently announced that the system is now accounting for 9% of the daily foreign exchange market. I foresee that, once fifty (still some way off) banks have signed, a 'tipping point' will have been reached; thereafter the banks will sign in droves. Bankers are like civil servants - keen to question everything, slow to come to a decision, yet certainly lemming-like when they do. I still consider, once this target is eventually achieved, that this company has the most exciting and visible potential of any small company I have encountered during my career. A potent incentive to encourage a bank to adopt the system is the fact that on account of faster settlement times the capital required under the new Basle 2 regulations will be greatly reduced. My great worry is that the company may be subject to a hostile take-over attempt before it can reap the rewards it so richly deserves. I do naturally have other concerns in managing the portfolio which are mainly from a political standpoint. Not only am I concerned about the excess borrowing spree in which the Chancellor has engaged, purportedly to improve the country's health and education services, yet with little benefit to show for it to date, but also by the degree of indebtedness of the consumer whose ability to spend in the high street looks short lived. Furthermore, I am greatly concerned about the state of the housing market, high prices and the knock-on effect for manufacturing industry through the imposition of unnecessarily excessive interest rates. The Government continually makes noises about how it will make life easier for house-builders to increase the supply of new housing, but in reality it introduces more red tape/tax, as it does in all sectors of industry and commerce, thereby increasing the difficulties involved for companies. Fortunately this does greatly work to the advantage of the larger participants by increasing their margins. House-builders are still the best way to make money out of divorce, immigration (whether legal or illegal), asylum seekers (definitely a growth industry) as well as future climate change. The Chinese Government appears to be slowly starving the North Koreans into submission and forcing them to close down their nuclear facilities. Let us hope they are successful. A much greater threat to the level of stock-markets, however, would currently appear to arise from Iran which boasts about its nuclear capability. I cannot see any resolution to that problem so am keen to increase the portfolio's exposure to energy assets outside the Straits of Hormuz, be they Drax power station, coal, uranium, oil or natural gas. On a more cheerful note the IMF has recently published its outlook; it predicts a continuation of strong growth for both the UK and the global economy. UK interest rates may not yet have reached their peak until inflationary pressures abate - which even the Governor of the Bank expects to occur later this year. After several years of upward revaluation of property and bond markets, equities, by comparison, appear to be relatively undervalued. UK equities are now as cheap relative to ten-year bonds as they have been at any time during the last thirty years. It is a sobering thought for any "bear" that, even though the mid-cap area may be highly valued, some 40% of the FTSE 100 is currently on a prospective price/earnings ratio of under 11 times; moreover, the smallest capitalisations also appear particularly cheap. Few commentators would disagree that there is a high probability that more share buy-backs, more corporate activity and further strong dividend growth will occur to buoy the market; conditions for private equity remain so favourable. In conclusion, your manager remains optimistic about the portfolio, being confident that good news flow for the smaller stocks, which has been long delayed, will finally start to occur in what is a much more auspicious year for Chinese investors. Roll on the year of the golden pig. M.J.BARSTOW 25 May 2007 CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007 Year ended 28 February 2007 Year ended 28 February 2006 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Gains on investments - 795 795 - 3,714 3,714 at fair value through profit or loss Exchange differences - 144 144 - (155) (155) on overdraft Realised (58) - (58) 137 - 137 (losses)/gains of trading subsidiary at fair value through profit or loss Unrealised losses of - - - (831) - (831) trading subsidiary at fair value through profit or loss Investment income 921 - 921 835 - 835 Total income 863 939 1,802 141 3,559 3,700 Investment management (195) (195) (390) (178) (178) (356) fees Other expenses (207) - (207) (225) - (225) Profit before finance 461 744 1,205 (262) 3,381 3,119 costs and tax Finance costs (236) (236) (472) (207) (207) (414) Profit before tax 225 508 733 (469) 3,174 2,705 Tax - - - - - - Profit for the year 225 508 733 (469) 3,174 2,705 Earnings per share - 1.49p 3.36p 4.85p (3.10p) 21.01p 17.91p basic and diluted The total column of this statement represents the Group's Income Statement, prepared under IFRS. The revenue and capital columns, including the revenue and capital earnings per share data, are supplementary information prepared under guidance published by the AIC. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued during the period. All revenue is attributable to the equity holders of the parent company. There are no minority interests. The Board recommends a final dividend of 3.10p per share CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AT 28 FEBRUARY 2007 2007 2006 £'000 £'000 NON-CURRENT ASSETS Investments at fair value through profit or loss 44,864 44,003 CURRENT ASSETS Investments held for trading - 1,111 Other receivables 40 152 Taxation recoverable 41 30 Cash and cash equivalents 337 98 418 1,391 TOTAL ASSETS 45,282 45,394 CURRENT LIABILITIES: Purchases for future settlement 120 - Other payables 125 118 Bank overdraft 7,740 8,266 7,985 8,384 TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 37,297 37,010 EQUITY Called up share capital 3,777 3,777 Share premium account 10,997 10,997 Realised capital reserve 14,886 12,228 Unrealised capital reserve 7,539 9,689 Revenue reserve 98 319 TOTAL EQUITY 37,297 37,010 Net assets per ordinary share 246.88p 244.98p CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007 2007 Share Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total capital premium capital capital reserve account reserve reserve £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 Opening equity 3,777 10,997 12,228 9,689 319 37,010 Profit/(loss) for - - 2,658 (2,150) 225 733 the year Dividends paid - - - - (446) (446) Closing equity 3,777 10,997 14,886 7,539 98 37,297 2006 Share Share Realised Unrealised Revenue Total capital premium capital capital reserve account reserve reserve £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 £,000 Opening equity 3,777 10,997 8,099 10,644 1,226 34,743 Profit/(loss) for - - 4,129 (955) (469) 2,705 the year Dividends paid - - - - (438) (438) Closing equity 3,777 10,997 12,228 9,689 319 37,010 CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOW STATEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 28 FEBRUARY 2007 2007 2006 £'000 £'000 NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash inflow from investment income and interest 921 835 Cash inflow/(outflow) from held for trading 1,053 (1,805) current asset investments Cash outflow from management expenses (489) (1,096) Payments to acquire non-current asset investments (10,642) (13,514) Receipts on disposal of non-current asset 10,695 14,436 investments Tax paid (11) (12) NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 1,527 (1,156) CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES Dividends paid (446) (438) (Decrease)/increase in bank borrowings (526) 1,515 Interest paid (461) (413) NET CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES (1,433) 664 INCREASE/(DECREASE) IN CASH 94 (492) Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year 98 745 Increase/(decrease) in cash 94 (492) Currency translation difference 145 (155) Cash and cash equivalents at end of year 337 98 NOTES 1. Status of this report The above results for the year ended 28 February 2007 are unaudited. This financial information does not constitute the Company and Group's statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2007, which will be finalised on the basis of the financial information in this Preliminary Announcement. Statutory accounts for the year ended 28 February 2007 are to be delivered to the Registrar of Companies following the Annual General Meeting. The information for the year ended 28 February 2006 has been extracted from the latest published audited financial statements. The audited financial statements for the year ended 28 February 2006 have been filed with the Registrar of Companies. The report of the auditors on those accounts contained no qualification or statement under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. 2. Basis of accounting The financial statements of the Company and the Group have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which comprise standards and interpretations approved by the IASB and International Accounting Standards and Standing Interpretations Committee interpretations approved by the IASC that remain in effect, and to the extent that they have been adopted by the European Union. Under IFRS, the Statement of Recommended Practice (SORP) issued by the Association of Investment Companies has no formal status, but the Group has taken the guidance of the SORP into account to the extent that is appropriate and compatible with IFRS. The accounting policies are unchanged from those used in the last annual financial statements except where otherwise stated. 3. Income 2007 2006 Income from investments: £'000 £'000 Franked dividends from listed investments 822 739 Unfranked income from overseas dividends 57 63 Income from listed fixed interest securities 29 25 908 827 Other income: Interest receivable 13 8 13 8 921 835 4. Investment Management Fees and other Expenses 2007 2006 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Investment management fees 195 195 390 178 178 356 - monthly - - - - - - - performance 195 195 390 178 178 356 Administration fees 65 - 65 59 - 59 Custodian's fees 12 - 12 13 - 13 Registrar's fees 8 - 8 6 - 6 Directors' fees 67 - 67 67 - 67 Auditors' fees: - audit of the 18 - 18 20 - 20 Company and consolidated financial statements - non-statutory interim - - - 3 - 3 advice - tax advice 6 - 6 6 - 6 Miscellaneous expenses 31 - 31 51 - 51 Total other expenses 207 - 207 225 - 225 5. Ordinary Dividends 2007 2006 £'000 £'000 Dividends reflected in the financial statements: Final dividend paid for the year 2006 at 2.95p (2005: 2.9p) 446 438 Dividends not reflected in the financial statements: Proposed final dividend for the year 2007 at 3.10p per share (2006: 2.95p) 461 446 6. Earnings per Share Earnings per share are based on the profit of £733,015 (2006: £2,705,425) attributable to 15,107,250 (2006: 15,107,250) ordinary shares of 25p. Supplementary information is provided as follows: revenue earnings per share are based on the revenue profit of £224,985 (2006: loss £468,732); capital earnings per share are based on the net capital gains of £508,030 (2006: £3,174,157), attributable to 15,107,250 (2005: 15,107,250) ordinary shares of 25p. Company Secretary and Registered Office: Cavendish Administration Limited 145-157 St John Street London EC1V 4RU ---END OF MESSAGE---
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