Syndicate Results/Forecasts

Amlin PLC 5 March 2002 PRESS RELEASE DATE 5 March 2002 Syndicate results in line with expectations Continued improvement in underwriting performance forecast for Syndicate 2001 Quota share facility increases capacity by a further £50 million for 2002 Amlin Underwriting Limited, the leading managing agency owned by Amlin plc ('Amlin'), has released its managed syndicates' final results for the 1999 year of account and updated its forecasts for the 2000 year of account. The 1999 year of account results are in line with previous estimates, and the forecasts for the 2000 year of account indicate a continued improvement in the underlying underwriting performance of Syndicate 2001. Amlin is experiencing buoyant trading conditions in the current year and has arranged a £50 million quota share facility with XL Re which will increase Syndicate 2001's capacity for 2002 from £800 million to £850 million, 48% more than in 2001. 1999 account results and 2000 account forecasts The results and forecasts set out below are expressed as a percentage of capacity and are after standard Names' expenses, including agent's fees and commission. 1999 year of account results Syndicate No. Capacity £m % owned by Amlin Result Previous forecast % to % % to % 902 37.6 45.5% (5.5) (7.0) to (2.0) 1141 76.2 52.1% (22.3) (25.0) to (20.0) 2001 453.0 35.2% (2.0) (4.5) to 0.5 Total 566.8 (5.0) (7.4) to (2.4) Underwriting conditions in 1999 were extremely poor and there was a high occurrence of major catastrophes. Nevertheless, in Syndicate 2001, the XL account contributed a significant profit, which helped to offset poor results in some other classes, particularly US casualty business. The direct marine business contributed a small profit while both aviation and motor recorded small losses. The prudence of Amlin's reserving policy was demonstrated by releases in reserves from the 1998 and prior years in each of its managed syndicates. 2000 year of account forecasts Syndicate No. Capacity £m % owned by Amlin Latest forecast Previous forecast % to% % to % 902 37.6 56.7% (32.5) to (27.5) (32.5) to (27.5) 1141 76.2 69.7% (28.0) to (23.0) (28.0) to (23.0) 2001 423.4 55.8% (4.0) to 1.0 (5.0) to 0.0 Total 537.2 (9.4) - (4.4) (10.2) to (5.2) Whilst the majority of the 11 September terrorist attacks impact the 2001 year of account, the 2000 year of account contains related losses of £1.4 million, £0.2 million and £17.2 million for Syndicates 902, 1141 and 2001 respectively. 2000 was the last year of account underwritten by Syndicates 902 and 1141, and forecasts for these syndicates remain in line with previous expectations. The Syndicate 2001 forecast has improved as claim development has continued to be better than that previously expected. For Syndicate 2001, as in 1999, the XL account performed well in 2000, offsetting losses from the US casualty and direct property accounts. The direct marine account is expected to close at around break-even and the UK commercial motor account has returned to profit. The aviation account was adversely affected by the events of 11 September 2001 without which it would have operated at around break-even. 2001 year of account The 2001 year of account has benefited from rate improvements being achieved prior to 11 September, the material improvements in rates following the attacks, and from the benefits of the corporate re-organisation carried out at the end of 2000. Whilst the development of the account is still in its early stages, with a large part of the business still on risk, most areas are presently indicating good levels of profitability before taking account of the impact of the events of 11 September 2001. Amlin continues to believe that the underlying improvement in Syndicate 2001's performance will mitigate significantly the estimated impact of the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. The geographical and class diversity of the syndicate's underwriting are key factors in providing a balance to the impact of a single catastrophic loss. For example, the UK motor account, which represents approximately £100 million of gross premium, is expected to return a strong profit. 11 September The overall effect of the 11 September terrorist losses remains in line with that set out in the Company's listing particulars dated 20 December 2001. The projected net loss to Amlin's managed syndicates at that stage was £88 million before tax, of which Amlin's share amounted to £60 million. Current trading and outlook Trading conditions during the January renewal season were very strong. The following is indicative of improved terms that were achieved on renewal: US catastrophe + 25% International catastrophe + 75% Direct property + 70% Marine Hull + 44% Generally, policy terms are being tightened, insured retentions are increasing and terrorism cover is being limited or excluded in a number of areas. During the January renewal season, Amlin also completed the placement of its own reinsurance programme for the same cost relative to forecast gross premium as it achieved in 2001, although there was an increase in deductibles and a higher level of co-insurance. Syndicate 2001's 2002 underwriting is not expected to lead to any material increases in risk profile under 'Realistic Disaster Scenarios'. As noted in its previous trading update, Amlin expects trading conditions over the medium term to be strong. Consequently, in addition to the 40% increase in Syndicate 2001's capacity to £800 million, Amlin is pleased to confirm that it has arranged a qualifying quota share reinsurance facility with XL Re, which will enable it to underwrite up to £50 million of premium income in excess of this capacity. This arrangement, which has also been secured for the 2003 year of account, should enhance Syndicate 2001's return on capital as it receives fees and commissions. Charles Philipps, Chief Executive of Amlin, said: 'We are very positive about the outlook for Amlin over the medium term. Improving trends in all business areas are evident and we are examining all means of maximising shareholder returns in this hard market, as exemplified by our quota share facility with XL Re. Underwriting conditions are strong and we have grown our business in line with our strategy to take full advantage of this.' Enquires: Charles Philipps, Amlin plc 0207 746 1050 Richard Hextall, Amlin plc 0207 746 1054 David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0207 417 8989 This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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