Syndicate Forecasts

AMLIN PLC 27 August 1999 SYNDICATE FORECASTS Amlin Underwriting Limited ('AML') and Angerstein Underwriting Limited ('AUL'), the two Lloyd's managing agencies owned by Amlin plc have released updated forecasts of the results of their managed Lloyd's syndicates for the 1997 year of account and initial forecasts for the 1998 year of account. The forecasts, which are set out below, are expressed in a 5% range as a percentage of capacity and are after standard Names' expenses, including agents fees and profit commission. 1997 year of account Syndicate Capacity % owned Latest forecast Previous forecast No. £m by Amlin % to % % to % 902 37.6 14% 7.00 to 12.00 7.00 to 12.00 1141 76.2 6% 2.00 to 7.00 2.00 to 7.00 2001 528.6 11% (2.00) to 3.00 (1.50) to 3.50 The marginal reduction in the syndicate 2001 forecast result is due to lower forecast investment income than had previously been assumed. While investment returns on the syndicate's portfolio of premium trust fund assets have exceeded AML's benchmark used for measuring performance, forecast total returns in calendar year 1999 are adversely affected by uncertainty over future interest rates. The syndicate forecasts set out above take no account of movements in respect of 1996 and prior year reserves. Both AML and AUL believe that any releases from prior year reserves are unlikely to be material. 1998 year of account Syndicate No. Capacity % owned Forecast £m by Amlin % to % 902 37.6 35% (2.00) to 3.00 1141 76.2 22% 0.00 to 5.00 2001 528.7 24% (6.00) to (1.00) The forecasts for the 1998 year of account are indicative of the difficult underwriting climate which has resulted from a global excess of insurance capacity. Syndicate 2001 Syndicate 2001's results for the 1997 and 1998 years of account were significantly influenced by the inclusion in the results of former sub- syndicate 919 which underwrote general liability and professional indemnity accounts. This business' forecast 1998 year of account losses represent approximately 37% of the forecast losses of syndicate 2001. This business has now been largely discontinued as part of management's continuing policy of eliminating those elements of the underwriting account which are unprofitable and lack long term potential. 1999 Outlook While it is early days for the 1999 year of account, management actions taken and the increase in rates being achieved on the motor book indicate that Amlin's managed syndicates will show an improvement over the 1998 year of account. Amlin plc In its balance sheet at 31 December 1998, Amlin plc is carrying reserves of some £8.8 million in respect of potential losses on its underwriting on the 1997 and 1998 years of account from both its managed and 'spread' syndicates. The mid-points of the 1998 year of account managed syndicates' forecasts would result in a loss to the Amlin Group of £4.8 million. Enquiries: Charles Philipps, Amlin plc 0171 860 8222 David Haggie, Haggie Financial Limited 0171 417 8989
UK 100

Latest directors dealings