Interim Results

ABERFORTH GEARED CAPITAL & INCOME TRUST plc INTERIM RESULTS For the six months to 30 June 2004 FEATURES Total Assets Total Return +12.7% Net Asset Value of Notional Unit Total Return +20.2% HGSC Index (Excluding Investment Companies) Total Return +41.8% First Interim Dividend 3.15p First Interim Dividend +2.4% Notional Unit NAV comprises 70% of the Income Share NAV and 30% of the Capital Share NAV. Aberforth Geared Capital & Income Trust plc invests only in small UK quoted companies, does not invest in any unquoted securities, AIM listed securities or securities issued by investment trusts or investment companies. CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT TO SHAREHOLDERS I am pleased to be able to report a period of strong returns for the assets of Aberforth Geared Capital & Income Trust plc (AGCiT). The total return on total assets of 12.7% reflects strength in the Company's chosen asset class, small UK quoted companies. As measured by the Hoare Govett Smaller Companies Index (Excluding Investment Companies), the return from this asset class was 10.6%. Larger companies, as represented by the FTSE All-Share Index, registered a total return of 2.8%. The effect of the gearing employed by the Company is to translate the 12.7% total return on total assets into a 20.2% return on Shareholders' funds. After allowing for a 100p capital entitlement of the Income Shares, the net asset value of a Capital Share has risen by 41.8% from 164.32p on 31 December 2003 to 232.98p at 30 June 2004. A first interim dividend for 2004 of 3.15p per Income Share has been declared. This dividend represents a 2.4% increase over the 3.075p paid in respect of the comparative period in 2003. The dividend will be paid on 26 August 2004 to Income Shareholders on the register on 30 July 2004. In order to allow more efficient use to be made of the Company's original long- term debt facilities, which amounted to £34.3m, additional overdraft facilities totalling £4m have been negotiated. The new facilities are in the form of overdrafts and do not incur non-utilisation charges. Consequently, it is anticipated that AGCiT will now be in a position to utilise its £34.3m of long- term debt facilities on a fuller and more consistent basis than had hitherto proved possible. INVESTMENT BACKGROUND The last six months have seen confirmation of a worldwide economic recovery. Fuelled by historically low interest rates, the US economy has driven the expansion: consensus expectations for GDP growth in 2004 are now one fifth higher than they were six months ago. Crucially, though, the role of the US in the global upturn has been complemented by the nations of East Asia, and by China in particular. Happily, the emerging economies of the region have been joined by Japan, for so long a laggard in terms of economic growth: Japanese GDP grew by 6% at an annualised rate in the first quarter of 2004 and has now increased for eight consecutive quarters. Importantly, this expansion is not now due only to export growth: one third of the first quarter's progress was generated by private consumption. Europe's economic performance, on the other hand, remains sluggish. Although recent survey data do suggest an improvement in prospects, much of this is attributable to the growth in demand from the rest of the world: Europe has yet to generate a self-sustaining recovery. The UK stands in contrast to its continental peers. Economic growth in 2004 is robust, supported by a combination of higher government spending, a recovery in investment and the reliable household sector. The resilience of the consumer has been bolstered by falling unemployment and average earnings growth of almost 5%. Less securely, and in a circular fashion, the continuing strength of the housing market has also played a role. In aggregate, therefore, the data pertaining to the real growth of the world's economies have, on balance, been positive over AGCiT's first half. This has been an environment conducive to a continuation of profits growth. In the UK, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have returned to levels of mid 2000. More remarkably, albeit assisted by dollar weakness, US corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have surged to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Given this, and the recent exceptional level of earnings upgrades from Wall Street analysts, it is perhaps surprising that stockmarkets have not performed rather better over ACCiT's first half: in local currency and capital only terms, the S&P 500 Index is up by 2.6% and the FTSE All-Share Index by just 1.0%. Clearly, the market discounted much of the recovery, but it has also been preoccupied by other factors. The geopolitical climate remains uncertain: events in Iraq and Saudi Arabia increase the perceived risks of holding equities. More tangibly, Middle Eastern turmoil has combined with Chinese and American demand to drive up the price of oil. China's influence can also be observed in the prices of other commodities, such as steel. Commodity prices have a direct, though potentially delayed, effect on corporate profitability. With profit share close to peak levels, it may now prove tougher for profits to increase more quickly than GDP. Compounding these concerns are indications - in commodity prices, producer prices and average earnings - that the debate between inflation and deflation may be swinging towards the former camp. While such an outcome ought to prove the more benign for equities, the transition would not be painless. Such pain is most obvious in higher interest rates. In contrast to the UK, where the MPC has raised rates four times in eight months, the US has seen just one increase on the last day of June. However, fears that the Fed may be underestimating the nascent inflation risk have been taken into account by the bond market, which, from mid March, has endured its sharpest fall since 1994. On both sides of the Atlantic, therefore, investors are confronting tighter monetary conditions, something they have not had to do for four years. The inevitable pressure on the valuation of equities - and indeed other asset classes - risks being exacerbated by the unwinding of leveraged investment strategies whose viability has relied on cheap money. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE In the first two months of 2004, small UK quoted companies, AGCiT's investment universe, sustained the momentum of the previous year, though their performance from the end of February was more subdued, possibly as the impact of higher interest rates was felt. Nevertheless, the first half as a whole saw the HGSC (XIC) index achieve good returns both in absolute terms and relative to large companies. These returns were exceeded by AGCiT. AGCiT's out-performance was broadly based, with the portfolio adding value against the HGSC (XIC) index in 19 of the 31 sectors that make up the index. In common with previous phases of good performance, the identification of attractively valued businesses (i.e. stock selection) proved more important than the exploitation of broad industrial themes (i.e. sector selection). However, one sector worthy of note is Oil & Gas, to which AGCiT has relatively little exposure owing to a lack of attractive companies with appropriate dividend yields. In the six months, Oil & Gas accounted for over one quarter of the HGSC (XIC) index's capital return. The rising oil price was influential, but more important was the exceptional performance of the exploration companies, as certain discovery successes whetted investors' appetite for high impact drilling programmes. With greater confidence in economic growth, corporate activity continued the upturn that began in the second half of 2003. AGCiT has been a disproportionate beneficiary: nine of its portfolio companies were at the receiving end of corporate activity in the first six months of the year. Performance was also enhanced by value creation initiatives from six other investments: such initiatives include share buy backs and disposals of non-core businesses. Not unexpectedly, equity issuance has also picked up: in its first half, AGCiT subscribed to three fund raisings, one of which was an initial public offering. An analysis of the portfolio as at 30 June 2004 suggests that the environment for dividend growth remains healthy. There were 95 companies in the portfolio at the end of June. These companies paid 86 dividends that AGCiT was entitled to earn in the first half. Of the 86, two were cuts, 25 were unchanged on the corresponding payments in the previous year and 59 were increases. The median dividend increase of the 86 companies was 6.9% year on year. Although it should be noted that AGCiT's actual receipts vary from this figure since the portfolio is actively managed, this rate of increase is encouraging: it is in excess of the rate of inflation and gives some fundamental justification to recent share price movements. INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The interplay of developments in the real economy and those in financial markets is, in the short run at least, unpredictable. It should not therefore come as a surprise that the present investment outlook is radically different from that which prevailed a year ago. As highlighted in AGCiT's previous interim report, markets then were fretting about deflation, to which the monetary authorities had reacted with lower interest rates and vague references to "unconventional measures". Twelve months on, it seems that these tactics have succeeded. Economic recovery appears well entrenched and, in combination with earlier cost cutting, has generated a strong recovery in corporate profits. Moreover, the deflationary threat seems to have receded, to the extent that investors' greater fear is now that monetary policy may have remained too loose for too long and that inflationary pressures are mounting. However, with public and private sector debt levels in developed economies remaining high, it would appear premature to write off the risk of deflation. Fine judgment on the part of central banks is required to ensure that monetary tightening - or the financial markets' anticipation of it - does not have too dramatic an effect on demand. At the very least, with interest rates rising, it would seem reasonable to expect a period of more modest economic and profits growth. In such an environment, the stockmarket might struggle to produce real returns much above the historic average of 5-7% per annum. However, within this long run average, shorter periods of exaggerated price movements - both up and down - are probable, especially in view of the activities of leveraged market participants such as hedge funds. Over the last year or so, the direction has been upwards and small companies have led the way: as the table below shows, their out-performance has taken them close to the valuation of the FTSE All-Share index, whose historic PE and yield at the end of June were 16.1x and 3.2%. 30 June 30 June 2004 2003 Characteristics AGCiT HGSC (XIC) AGCiT HGSC (XIC) Number of Companies 95 707 82 827 Weighted Average Market £331m £414m £318m £334m Capitalisation Price Earnings Ratio 13.1x 16.0x 11.2x 13.4x (Historic) Net Dividend Yield 3.7% 2.6% 4.2% 3.0% (Historic) Dividend Cover (Historic) 2.0x 2.4x 2.1x 2.5x The table also shows that your Managers are not slaves to an index. A universe of 707 companies abounds in individual opportunities for the consistent application of value investment disciplines. AGCiT's portfolio is thus well diversified, in both capital and income terms, and boasts a lower valuation than the broader equity market, as measured by both the HGSC (XIC) index and the FTSE All-Share index. In a still uncertain world, this valuation discount should, other things being equal, be of advantage to AGCiT. Alastair C Dempster Chairman 21 July 2004 The Statement of Total Return, summary Balance Sheet and summary Cash Flow Statement are set out below: - STATEMENT OF TOTAL RETURN (Incorporating the Revenue Account) (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2004 30 June 2003 Revenue Capital Total Revenue Capital Total £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Realised gains/(losses) on sales - 5,745 5,745 - (1,188) (1,188) Unrealised gains - 2,432 2,432 - 11,827 11,827 Net Gains on investments - 8,177 8,177 - 10,639 10,639 Dividend income 1,862 - 1,862 1,689 - 1,689 Interest income 21 - 21 50 - 50 Other income 9 - 9 - - - Investment management fee (104) (242) (346) (74) (173) (247) Other expenses (89) - (89) (80) - (80) ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ Net return before finance costs and taxation 1,699 7,935 9,634 1,585 10,466 12,051 Interest payable and similar charges (311) (726) (1,037) (312) (728) (1,040) ----- ----- ------ ----- ------ ------ Return attributable to non-equity shareholders 1,388 7,209 8,597 1,273 9,738 11,011 Dividends and other appropriations in respect of non-equity shares (772) (33) (805) (753) (34) (787) ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ Transfer to reserves 616 7,176 7,792 520 9,704 10,224 ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== ====== Returns per non-equity interest2: Income Share 5.67p - 5.67p 5.20p - 5.20p Capital Share - 68.66p 68.66p - 92.74p 92.74p Dividends per Income Share 3.150p - 3.150p 3.075p - 3.075p NOTES 1. The revenue column of this statement is the profit and loss account of the Company. All revenue and capital items in the above statement derive from continuing operations. No operations were acquired or discontinued in the period. 2. The calculations of revenue return per Income Share are based on net revenue of £1,388,000 (30 June 2003 - £1, 273,000) million and on 24.5 million Income Shares. The calculations of capital return per Capital Share are based on net capital gains of £7,209,000 (30 June 2003 - £9,738,000) and on 10.5 million Capital Shares. SUMMARY BALANCE SHEET (unaudited) 30 June 31 December 30 June 2004 2003 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 Securities officially listed on the London Stock Exchange 84,996 74,199 67,641 ------- ------- ------- Debtors 606 338 1,137 Cash at bank - 1 - Overdraft (211) - - Other creditors (1,235) (1,550) (1,360) ------- ------- ------- Net current liabilities (840) (1,211) (223) ------- ------- ------- Total assets less current liabilities 84,156 72,988 67,418 Creditors (amounts falling due after more than one year) (34,230) (30,887) (31,256) ------- ------- ------- Total assets less liabilities 49,926 42,101 36,162 ======= ======= ======= Capital and reserves: non-equity interests Called up share capital 350 350 350 Reserves: Capital redemption reserve 50 50 50 Special reserve 33,929 33,929 33,929 Capital reserve - realised 1,040 (3,737) (4,325) Capital reserve - unrealised 13,594 11,162 5,378 Revenue reserve 963 347 780 ______ ______ ______ 49,926 42,101 36,162 ====== ====== ====== Net Asset Values: per Income Share 65.06p 62.37p 61.43p per Capital Share 317.81p 255.42p 201.06p NOTE During the period the Company had 24.5m Income Shares and 10.5m Capital Shares in issue. SUMMARY CASH FLOW STATEMENT (unaudited) 6 months to 6 months to 30 June 2004 30 June 2003 £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 Net cash inflow from operating activities 1,274 1,226 Returns on investments and servicing of finance Interest and similar charges paid (1,027) (1,037) Non-equity dividends paid (1,256) (1,225) ------- ------- Net cash outflow from returns on investments and servicing of finance (2,283) (2,262) Capital expenditure and financial investment Payments to acquire investments (23,051) (12,415) Receipts from sales of investments 20,509 15,072 ------- ------- Net cash (outflow)/inflow from capital expenditure and financial investment (2,542) 2,657 ------- ------ Net cash (outflow)/inflow before financing (3,551) 1,621 Financing Loans drawn down/(repaid) 3,339 (1,622) ------ ------- Net cash inflow/(outflow) from financing 3,339 (1,622) ------ ------ Change in cash during the period (212) (1) ====== ====== NOTES The same accounting policies used for the period to 31 December 2003 have been applied. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with applicable accounting standards and with the Statement of Recommended Practice "Financial Statements of Investment Trust Companies" (SORP). The foregoing do not comprise statutory accounts (as defined in section 240(5) of the Companies Act 1985) of the Company. The statutory accounts for the period to 31 December 2003, which contained an unqualified Report of the Auditors, have been lodged with the Registrar of Companies and did not contain a statement required under section 237(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 1985. The Interim Report is expected to be posted to shareholders on 23 July 2004. Members of the public may obtain copies from Aberforth Partners, 14 Melville Street, Edinburgh EH3 7NS or from its website at www.aberforth.co.uk. CONTACT: David Ross Aberforth Partners 0131 220 0733 Aberforth Partners, Secretaries - 21 July 2004 ANNOUNCEMENT ENDS
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