Report for Month of July 2000

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 15 August 2000 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2000 SUMMARY Latin American markets made little progress during July, despite generally positive local news. After the excitement and euphoria over Vicente Fox's unexpected win in the Mexican presidential elections, attention turned back to more prosaic factors, including second quarter earnings releases from many of the region's major companies, sharp cuts in Brazilian interest rates, and the fortunes of the US stock market. The MSCI Latin America index fell by 1.2% in sterling terms over July, although it outperformed Emerging Markets as a whole after big falls in Asia, and also beat the MSCI World Index (down 1.9%). Year to date it is practically unchanged (-0.1%). In July, the worst-performing market was Peru (-3.6% in sterling), still negatively affected by politics, whereas Colombia rose by 13% (though the market is still down by 23% YTD) and Brazil was flat. Despite this lack of progress, the Latin American bond markets have been performing extremely well in recent weeks, and we see this as an encouraging indication that international investor interest in the equity markets may return. Our NAV fell by 2.0% during the month, underperforming the regional index. Asset allocation was positive, but we were hurt by weakness in several of our stock overweights, particularly CTC in Chile, Credicorp in Peru and Brazil's TeleNordeste Celular. Telecoms stocks underperformed generally throughout the region. A strong rally in the shares of cyclical/commodity companies that we do not own also affected performance. However, our share price recovered from its end-June low, rising by 3.2% as the discount narrowed back down to 18.6%. MEXICO As we reported in our last monthly report, the Mexican currency reacted sharply to the Fox victory. It has continued to be extremely strong and is now back at levels of P9.32 to the dollar from P10 at the end of June, supported by higher oil prices, lower than expected inflation (July CPI came in at 0.4% or 9.1% on a rolling 12 month basis) and tight monetary policy. Short-term interest rates have recently risen slightly to 15.2% nominal (6% real), reflecting the Central Bank's tightening stance, but are still well below the 17% they reached at the end of June. Industrial production figures have continued to be strong. Our principal concern is the growing trade deficit; in June, despite oil prices at $30/barrel, the trade balance was $4bn worse than in June 1999 as imports rose by 18% YOY. Signs of a slowdown in the US economy are also being keenly watched for its impact on Mexico. Telmex released second quarter earnings figures that were poorly received by the market, showing a drop in profitability in its core local telephony business despite a thriving cellular franchise. We are less concerned; it is clearly in Telmex's interest to present lower profit figures ahead of a potentially tougher regulatory regime under President Fox. In addition, Telmex's entry into the Brazilian market and series of strategic alliances with major international players show that it is preparing itself for the increasing competition in its home market. Mexico's leading bank, Banacci, responded to the BBVA takeover of rival Bancomer by using Q2 results to clean up its own balance sheet even further, preparing itself for a return to lending in 2001. The best-performing stocks during the month included miner Grupo Mexico, up 38% in USD after a long period of underperformance following its takeover of Asarco and weak copper prices. The company announced plans for a New York listing and was also boosted by better news on copper prices and inventories. Retailer Comercial Mexicana rose by 21% on strong consumer spending and takeover speculation. Conglomerates Alfa and Grupo Industrial Saltillo rallied after a long period of underperformance, and Banacci stock reacted well to its balance sheet cleanup and to increased optimism on the economy. Telmex and Carso Global Telecom were both down around 8% in USD, and media group Televisa and retailer Soriana also underperformed. We used the rally in the conglomerates to cut our exposure there back to neutral, and instead added to stocks more exposed to domestic consumption where we consider the medium term upside to be brighter, such as Kimberly Clark, Femsa and Soriana. We are still slightly underweight in Mexico overall but will be looking to add on weakness. BRAZIL The Brazilian market was basically flat over the month, falling by 0.04% in sterling terms, and therefore outperforming the region as a whole. The Brazilian authorities made two more interest rate cuts in July, so that the overnight rate fell by 100bp over the month to 16.5% from 19% at the start of the year. Real rates are currently around 9.5%. The authorities cited the ongoing lack of inflationary pressures and the improved external environment as reasons behind their move, but they are also clearly driven by a desire to see the economy return to higher growth. Despite a higher than expected IPCA inflation figure for July, caused mainly by supply-side shocks and government price increases, we expect the rate cutting cycle to continue. The effect of lower interest rates and the more competitive exchange rate can already be seen in the economy, which grew by 3.8% in the first half of the year, driven by the export sector, particularly commodities and agriculture, and strong industrial production. This growth combined with spending cuts is producing fiscal results well above the IMF targets for the year, allowing the government some room for targeted spending ahead of October's important municipal elections. This week Brazil successfully placed a landmark issue of US$5.2bn in 40-year bonds in exchange for more expensive Brady debt, thus significantly improving its debt profile; it estimates this exchange will save it US$1bn in debt service over the next 10 years as well as releasing over $300m in collateral. We believe the success of this placement signals renewed investor confidence in the country's outlook. As already mentioned, telecoms stocks were weak throughout the region in July following a global selloff, and Brazilian cellulars were no exception. Bidding rules were announced for the auction of the PCS licences to be sold off from December; these were generally interpreted as negative for the incumbent cellular operators and likely to cause faster consolidation. Unibanco, the third largest private sector bank in Brazil, bought Banco Bandeirantes from its Portuguese owners in an opportunistic transaction which will increase its deposit base by a third. Though the price it paid can be seen as a little high, it illustrates Unibanco's intention to strengthen its franchise. There was news of further delays in the sale of Banespa, which now looks unlikely to be sold for another year. A small stake in iron ore producer CVRD was acquired by Billiton from George Soros. The iron ore sector has been surrounded by speculation of further consolidation given the bidding war over North, which had previously expressed interest in smaller Brazilian producer Caemi. This week the Brazilian government also raised US$4bn from a secondary issue of voting shares in Petrobras, placed both in Brazil and overseas. The month's best performers were leading brewer Brahma, up 24% in USD on optimism over a recovery in consumption and its even greater market power following its merger with rival Antartica; commodity stocks including VCP, Aracruz and Suzano, following a worldwide trend; and steel stocks were also strong following interest rate cuts. Utilities including Cesp, Coelba and Light did well on speculation over their financial restructuring and future sale/buyout of minorities: we are underweight this sector. Banks Itau and Unibanco had a strong month, while Banespa suffered, along with most of the telecoms stocks, although fixed-line provider Tele Norte-Leste outperformed. During the month, we added to our overweight in steelmaker Gerdau, which reported excellent Q2 earnings. We also slightly increased our holdings in Unibanco and TeleNordeste Celular, while trimming our exposure to Brahma after its strong rally. We remain overweight Brazil and very positive on the prospects for the market. CHILE The Chilean market fell by 3.4% in sterling terms during the month. Much of this fall can be attributed to further weakness in the Chilean peso, which dropped by 3% against the dollar during the month, and to poor sentiment following severe floods in June. The economy has shown a continuing recovery with GDP growing 7.4% year on year in May and rising by 6.1% for the first five months of the year. This has been reflected in rising imports; however, inflation has remained benign, unemployment has increased, consumer spending is sluggish and so the Central Bank has not yet felt the need to raise interest rates. The recent rise in copper prices will directly benefit Chile, where copper is still the most important export commodity. The weakest stock in the market during July was benchmark CTC, which fell by 17% in USD. We still believe that CTC is likely to be taken out by its parent Telefonica, particularly given the recent resignation of Chairman Juan Villalonga, as CTC is now the one piece which does not fit into Telefonica's Latin American strategy. We made no changes to our Chilean portfolio during the month. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell 3.4% in sterling terms in July. Economic news was mostly negative, with a month-on-month decline in industrial production in June, a big fall in auto sales, rising unemployment (15.4% in May, above expectations and last October's figure of 13.8%), and poor tax collection figures for July highlighting the deceleration in economic activity. The only bright spot has been export performance, with the trade balance improving significantly due to better demand from Brazil and higher commodity prices, especially oil. Capital goods imports have lagged. Shares in Banco de Galicia rose by 19% during the month in USD on the approval of the controversial share swap into the holding company, Grupo Financiero Galicia. The energy stocks underperformed. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month and remain strongly underweight in the belief that the full-year fiscal targets will remain out of reach and that the weak economy will produce only subdued earnings growth. ANDEAN MARKETS Colombia was the best performing market in the region last month, rising by 13% in sterling terms after peace talks with the guerrilla group, FARC, resumed and the main political parties adopted a more constructive approach after recent disputes. Industrial production figures showed a healthy rise in May and year to date (up 10%), and exports are being boosted by strong oil prices and a weaker peso. Our holding in brewer Bavaria outperformed the market's rise. Peru fell by 3.6% in sterling terms as politics continued to dominate the headlines: President Fujimori was sworn in amidst mass protests in Lima, and did not make any convincing new policy announcements, though he did present some changes to his Cabinet team. Although May's GDP growth came in at a stronger than expected 6.6%, we expect growth to be slower in H2. Inflation remains subdued despite the higher cost of oil imports. Our holding in Credicorp underperformed the market, falling by 12% in USD on fears of deteriorating asset quality. Its second quarter earnings release was disappointing. We have been reducing our weight in the stock on a slower than expected recovery, but we believe that the current price does not adequately reflect its franchise value. Venezuela fell by 0.6% in sterling terms, outperforming the regional index ahead of the polls on July 28 which saw Hugo Chavez re-elected as President by a wide margin. Chavez had earlier announced a 20% increase in the minimum wage, which has begun to feed through to inflation figures. Policies are unlikely to change in the near term. There have been some gradual signs of recovery in the economy, but the biggest positive continues to be the strength of the oil price. Our holding in CANTV underperformed during the month, down nearly 8% in USD. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/07/00 30/06/00 31/07/00 30/06/00 96.9p 98.9p 97.5p 99.1p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/07/00 30/06/00 Ordinary Shares 79.75p 77.25p Warrants 22.00p 22.25p Market exposure 31/07/00 30/06/00 EQUITIES Argentina 1.4 1.4 Brazil 47.6 46.3 Chile 9.9 10.5 Colombia 0.4 0.4 Mexico 36.4 36.4 Peru 1.3 1.4 Venezuela 1.5 1.6 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.5 98.0 Net Current Assets 1.5 2.0 ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £51.6 million (£52.7 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/07/00 30/06/00 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £45.1 million equal to 88.6% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 7,273 14.3 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,361 6.6 Petrobras Brazil 2,583 5.1 Unibanco Brazil 2,499 4.9 Banco Itau Brazil 2,414 4.8 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,339 4.6 Brasil Telecom Brazil 2,173 4.3 Gerdau Brazil 2,100 4.1 Femsa Mexico 2,046 4.0 Brahma Brazil 2,035 4.0 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,663 3.3 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,566 3.1 Telenordeste Celular Brazil 1,496 2.9 Banamex Mexico 1,379 2.7 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,291 2.5 Cemex Mexico 1,072 2.1 Soriana Mexico 1,007 2.0 Embratel Brazil 1,005 2.0 Telesp Celular Brazil 944 1.9 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 923 1.8 Electrobras Brazil 840 1.7 Enersis Chile 779 1.5 Sider Nacional Brazil 771 1.5 CANTV Venezuela 769 1.5 PC Holdings Argentina 717 1.4 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Half year 31 August 2000 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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