Report for Month of December 1999

Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC 12 January 2000 The Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust supports the AITC its campaign Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 1999 SUMMARY Latin American markets experienced another powerful rally in December, adding to the gains made since mid-October. In sterling terms, the MSCI Latin American Free Index rose 14.38%, with the rally again led by our largest markets, Brazil and Mexico (up 24.3% and 12.7% respectively). December's rise brings the accumulated gains for Latin America in the fourth quarter of the year to 36.18%. Latin America echoed much of the technology and internet-related euphoria that buoyed the developed markets towards the end of the year. Telecoms and media stocks performed strongly, as did many of the local banks and retailers which announced internet strategies. We took some profits where we felt price rises were excessive, but overall we believe the markets still look attractive at current valuation levels and with the backdrop of much stronger earnings growth expected for 2000. Trading volumes were well above the average for the year, despite the fact that most international investors, including ourselves, had closed their books in mid-December; so that for the last three weeks of the year trading activity was dominated by local investors. During December, our NAV rose by 15.55%, comfortably outperforming the index. More encouragingly, our share price rose by 21.3% as the discount narrowed. Our outperformance came mostly from good stock selection, particularly in Brazil; our market positioning was also broadly correct. BRAZIL Brazil was again the strongest market in the region in December, as local investors moved into the equity market in anticipation of lower interest rates, and international investors bought telecoms and media stocks. Both fixed and wireless telecoms companies did well, with the biggest rises among some of the smaller and more illiquid names; nevertheless, most of our blue chip telecoms holdings were up over 40% for the month. Steep rises in some second-tier stocks characterised the return of local money to the market, but there were also big gains in the major banks on anticipation of interest rate cuts as well as internet expansion plans. Macroeconomic news was good in December, with Moody's upgrading Brazil's local currency debt; signs that inflationary pressure was easing; Cardoso's popularity rising; and industrial production on an improving trend. The Real strengthened as a result to end the year at R1.81 to the dollar, a 50% year on year decline but a marked improvement from the level of R2 seen a few months earlier. Since the year end we have had confirmation that annual consumer price inflation was only 8.9% (according to the official IPCA Index). In addition, December showed Brazil's trade accounts in surplus to the tune of $249m on improved export volumes, the first positive figure since the devaluation. We anticipate that a lessening of inflation concerns should allow the Central Bank to resume its rate-cutting cycle, which in turn should alleviate the pressure on the fiscal accounts and support the economy's return to growth. We are now more positive on the outlook for Brazil in 2000 and as a result will be adding to our existing overweight in the market. During the month we made no changes to our portfolio. MEXICO The Mexican market continued its upward trend in December, with the rally broadening out from Telmex and the banks into media stocks and specific high- beta consumption driven stories. Some of these names saw rallies of between 40% and 60%. Macroeconomic news was positive; inflation figures for the eleven months to November came in at 11.2%, with full year inflation since confirmed to be only 12.3%, the lowest figure for five years and below the Central Bank's 13% target. As a result, interest rates continued to decline, with 28-day Cetes ending the year at 16.3%. A further rally in oil prices and strong foreign inflows left the year end exchange rate at P9.47, a 4% appreciation over the year. The government finally passed the budget for 2000, which targets a 1% fiscal deficit and assumes a $16 oil price. Consumer spending rose strongly in Q399, up 4% despite a cautious start to the year and major loan recoveries by the commercial banks. However, consumers remain extremely price-sensitive. In mid-December we reduced our overweight in media company Televisa, which had experienced a powerful rally (up 64% in two months) and reinvested the proceeds in our existing holdings, adding in particular to the banking sector which we feel has excellent prospects for 2000. We shall be visiting Mexico later in January in order to update ourselves on company and macro news and, of course, to select stocks which should benefit from the improved economic environment we expect for 2000. ARGENTINA Argentina underperformed the region in December with only a modest rise of 4.4% in sterling terms. Although there was some optimism following the final approval of the 2000 budget as well as the announcement of industrial production figures for November showing a 2.6% increase (the first since September 1998), we are still cautious over the prospects for the market and believe there is better value to be found elsewhere in the region. In particular, Argentina's high external financing requirements makes it vulnerable to expected rate rises by the US Federal Reserve. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month. CHILE The Chilean market put in a slightly better performance than Argentina, up 7.6% for the month, with stronger rises in individual stocks reflecting the improved outlook for consumption. Although the first round of the presidential election produced a virtual dead heat and the second round on January 16 looks as if it will be equally close, this political uncertainty does not seem to have been reflected in the economy. GDP growth in October was +2.4%, above expectations, and the November trade balance showed a higher than expected surplus. The peso strengthened 3% in the month due to these positive indicators, to end the year at P530/$1. ANDEAN MARKETS The Andean markets performed only weakly in December and have substantially underperformed the region for the year. Combined average daily trading volume is still only around $15m-$16m compared with Brazil at $400m and Mexico at $150-$200m, reflecting a lack of interest on the part of international investors. Venezuela's voters gave their overwhelming approval to the new constitution. The next step in the process is the elections for a new Congress, state governors and mayors, which will be held in the spring and are expected to provide another endorsement for President Hugo Chavez. However the timetable has been delayed due to the recent natural disaster; Venezuela's coastline was hit by mudslides after torrential rain, causing significant damage and loss of life just before Christmas. We maintain our zero weight in Venezuela but will revisit this strategy as we believe the equity market is extremely cheap given the turnaround in the current and fiscal accounts stimulated by the oil price rally. Peru was the weakest market in the region in December, rising only 0.4% in sterling terms. There are some signs of the long-awaited economic recovery coming through, and economic management is likely to be more orthodox this year, in line with the recently signed IMF agreement, despite the possibility of overspending ahead of the April 2000 presidential election. President Fujimori has announced his intention to run for a third presidential term, although this time he is likely to encounter more serious opposition. Colombia rose only 0.9% in sterling terms during the month, although interest rates continued to fall and a new $2.7bn 3 year agreement was signed with the IMF. This requires a reduction in the fiscal deficit from 6.3% in 1999 to 3.6% in 2000, which will require significant structural reforms as well as major budget cuts. However, the oil price rally has produced a turnaround in Colombia's current account position. In December we sold our small holding in Peruvian electricity distributor Luz del Sur, which was the subject of a tender offer by its controlling shareholders. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/12/99 30/11/99 31/12/99 30/11/99 96.6p 83.6p 97.2p 86.4p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/12/99 30/11/99 Ordinary Shares 78.25p 64.50p Warrants 28.75p 22.25p Market exposure 31/12/99 30/11/99 EQUITIES Argentina 3.7 4.5 Brazil 36.7 32.5 Chile 9.6 10.0 Colombia 0.7 0.7 Mexico 43.7 46.2 Peru 3.4 3.7 Other 1.0 1.2 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.8 98.8 Net Current Assets 1.2 1.2 ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £59.9 million (£51.8 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/12/99 30/11/99 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £48.7 million equal to 82.3% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 8,306 14.0 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,497 5.9 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,679 4.5 Tele Centro Sul Brazil 2,658 4.5 Petrobras Brazil 2,235 3.8 Banco Itau Brazil 2,129 3.6 Grupo Televisa Mexico 2,075 3.5 Telesp Brazil 1,982 3.4 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,680 2.8 Cemex Mexico 1,649 2.8 Banamex Mexico 1,641 2.8 Brahma Brazil 1,625 2.8 Femsa Mexico 1,588 2.7 Alfa Mexico 1,564 2.6 Soriana Mexico 1,554 2.6 Embratel Brazil 1,488 2.5 Banco de Galicia Argentina 1,421 2.4 Gerdau Brazil 1,343 2.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,325 2.2 Quinenco Chile 1,208 2.0 Desc Mexico 1,098 1.9 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 1,063 1.8 Gissa Mexico 992 1.7 Cementos Lima Peru 961 1.6 Grupo Carso Mexico 921 1.6 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Year End 29 February 2000 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 0207-545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 0207-545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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