Report for month March 2001

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 11 April 2001 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2001 SUMMARY March was another month of significant declines in global equity markets, and Latin America mirrored their falls. Over the month the MSCI Latin America Free Index fell by 5.5% in sterling terms, led down by Brazil. The Brazilian market, which declined by 10.9% in sterling, was hit by concerns over the situation in Argentina which led to severe pressure on the currency. In response Brazil raised interest rates, in a move which took the equity market by surprise. In contrast, the Argentine market rebounded from its lows to end the month in positive territory. Mexico stayed relatively firm as the currency appreciated against the dollar due to strong investment inflows. Developed markets fell by a similar amount to Latin America in March; however, for the first quarter, Latin America has been a relative outperformer, with the index up by 1.4% in sterling terms against the MSCI World Index down 8.7%. Our performance was weak over the month, as our NAV fell by 10.3%, due to our overweight Brazil allocation and geared exposure to banking and telecoms stocks in that market which showed some of the heaviest falls over the period. We also saw many of the more cyclical names in Mexico outperform while media, telecoms and most beverage stocks did poorly. Our share price declined by a similar proportion to the NAV so that the discount stayed constant over the period. We believe that the ability of Argentina's new Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo to build confidence in his economic plan will be key for the region in the short to medium term. A reduction in Argentine risk would allow interest rates to fall throughout the region and support in particular the Brazilian and Chilean currencies. If improved domestic confidence in Argentina can boost growth and investment, then the region's future will look brighter. Without growth, Argentina will almost certainly need to default on its debt, with highly negative implications for the rest of the market. BRAZIL The Brazilian market fell by 10.9% in March as concerns over Argentine risk caused the Real to weaken by 6% against the dollar. As a result, the Brazilian Central Bank raised interest rates by 50bps to 15.75% citing inflation concerns. This surprised the equity market which was largely expecting a continued decline in rates this year. However, these expectations were further depressed when the Central Bank raised its year end inflation forecast to 4.8%, recognising that the weaker currency and strong economic growth were a threat to its 4% inflation target. There are also signs that foreign direct investment into Brazil seems to be slowing. These economic concerns met continued political uncertainty to provoke a further market sell off. Further gloom was added by the news that Petrobras had lost one of its largest offshore oil rigs in an explosion that killed 10 workers. Since the month end, the Brazilian currency has strengthened and the equity market rallied in response to more positive news in Argentina. We believe that the long term economic outlook for Brazil is good and that the market has now discounted the fact that interest rates are unlikely to fall much this year, although we do need to watch the impact of a consumer boom on output, inflation and the trade balance. MEXICO Our neutral stance in Mexico did not work well in March, as both the equity market and the currency were relatively robust. The Mexican index fell by only 2.2% in sterling terms over the month, outperforming the region. Interest rates are still high, at 15.5%, while inflation has been benign and oil prices relatively supportive. The latest inflation figures to the end of March show 12-month CPI at 7.2%, still above the Central Bank's 6.5% target for the year end, but there are now definite signs of a slowdown in the economy that should bring this target within reach. The peso has been supported by continued strong inflows of foreign investment including the purchase of a controlling stake in cellular operator Iusacell by Vodafone. The introduction of fiscal reform legislation to Congress dominated the political agenda together with consideration of the situation in Chiapas. Consensus now seems to be building for the fiscal reform project among the political parties although questions remain over its likely depth and timing. News flow is likely to be more positive in Mexico over the next few months though the main risk remains the trade balance, affected by slowing US demand and by the oil price. The equity market saw strong gains among several cyclical stocks including conglomerate Alfa and construction group Ica. However, media, telecoms and banking stocks underperformed. ARGENTINA The Argentine market was the main focus of attention in March. After retracing almost all its January gains, it rebounded at the month end to close up 3.2% in sterling terms. The appointment of Ricardo Lopez- Murphy as economy minister lasted only a few days, as the social impact of his new round of spending cuts was politically unpalatable to the ruling coalition. He was replaced by the architect of convertibility, Domingo Cavallo, who took over demanding special powers from Congress to fast-track approval of his new economic plan. Cavallo, a master politician as well as an economist, has launched a supply-side package designed to restore Argentine competitiveness, for which he has gathered significant political support. He has also secured financing for Argentina's fiscal deficit from the local banks. The debt market has begun to respond more positively to the plan in recent days which has allowed equities to recover. Although we remain cautious, convinced that this is Argentina's last chance, Cavallo's policies offer the possibility of a no-default escape route in which lower rates, higher investment and positive growth can build. As a result, we have added a small position in two key stocks in order to reduce our underweight. However, we believe that our Brazil overweight already reflects a significant degree of Argentine risk (as evidenced in March) and therefore would be reluctant to add more in the short term. CHILE The Chilean market was relatively defensive in March, falling by only 1.6% in sterling although the currency was weak against the dollar, influenced by concerns over Argentina (where many Chilean businesses have substantial investments) as well as by the stagnation in the domestic economy which prompted the recent rate cut to 4%. GDP growth numbers for January disappointed, with only a 3.6% rise YOY, and the unemployment rate is flat at 8.4%, while industrial production continues weak. Retailers were hurt in March by the poor outlook for consumer demand, evidenced by disappointing retail sales figures. Telecoms major CTC also underperformed. ANDEAN MARKETS The smaller markets underperformed during March with the exception of Peru, which remained in positive territory (+0.6%) on the expectation of a market-friendly outcome to last weekend's first-round Presidential elections. However, since former President Alan Garcia has unexpectedly joined Alejandro Toledo in the second round runoff, confidence has collapsed as fears of Peru reversing its recent economic reform have grown. Colombia fell by 10.7% as the currency weakened on lower interest rates and signs of economic deceleration. Venezuela declined 7.6%, led by CANTV which followed the global de-rating of telecoms stocks. Steel maker Sivensa also sold off on debt concerns. Domestic economic activity remains weak despite increased government spending. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/03/01 28/02/01 31/03/01 28/02/01 80.3p 89.5p 84.4p 91.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/03/01 28/02/01 Ordinary Shares 70.25p 78.50p Warrants 17.00p 20.00p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £38.7 million (£43.2 million). Market exposure 31/03/01 28/02/01 % % EQUITIES Argentina 0.8 - Brazil 41.1 43.0 Chile 10.1 10.3 Colombia 0.4 0.4 Mexico 34.6 32.8 Venezuela 0.9 1.4 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 87.9 87.9 Net Current Assets 12.1 12.1 ------ ------ -- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------ Based on total assets of £49.3 million (£53.6 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/03/01 28/02/01 27.2% 24.1% ===== ===== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £39.2 million equal to 90.4% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 4,526 10.4 Petrobras Brazil 3,355 7.7 Ambev Brazil 3,129 7.2 Banco Itau Brazil 2,743 6.3 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 2,420 5.6 America Movil Brazil 2,102 4.8 Femsa Mexico 1,967 4.5 Unibanco Brazil 1,716 4.0 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,674 3.9 Banamex Mexico 1,580 3.6 Electrobras Centrais Brazil 1,548 3.6 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,418 3.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,370 3.2 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,205 2.8 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,193 2.8 Enersis Chile 975 2.2 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 949 2.2 Brasil Telecom Brazil 829 1.9 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 815 1.9 Cemex Mexico 781 1.8 Gerdau Brazil 761 1.8 D & S Chile 642 1.5 Endesa Chile 520 1.2 Embratel Brazil 478 1.1 CANTV Venezuela 465 1.1 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Results Announced 18 April 2001 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/ Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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